Category Archives: Fort Myers Beach

New Better Way to Sell Homes is Here in SW Florida

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We are proud to announce a new better way to sell homes has arrived in SW Florida. Brett and Sande Ellis have been training on this new program for months and are excited to bring this to SW Florida.

New Better Way to Sell Homes with 72 Sold

72 Sold is a real estate company in Arizona that burst onto the scene and took over market share. The founder of the company invented a remarkable home selling system selling homes in a 72 hour weekend and for higher prices.

At first glance you might think this sounds like a gimmick. It was my first thought, but fortunately I had heard of the system. Many agents from competing brokerages were wondering how this new company was selling so many homes, and so fast. Some competing agents were flat out complaining because they didn’t understand the system and wondered why they were being beaten out for all these listings.

The founder of 72 Sold was a bit of a revolutionary. He had a desire to make this thing big and take it nationwide, but he needed a little help.

Revolutionary Leader Meets Revolutionary Leader

 Gary Keller has been a bit of a revolutionary leader himself. Gary built the #1 real estate sales organization in America, but he always admired what this little guy in Arizona was doing. This little guy wasn’t so little after a while, so the two leaders talked about taking this nationwide.

Keller Williams and 72 Sold have partnered to bring the 72 Sold system all over. To utilize this system, agents need to be trained and certified. There are a lot of moving pieces, and we can understand why outside agents do not understand it. It is a threat to the traditional way of selling real estate.

Traditional Vs New Better Way to Sell Homes

 This new program has identified two problems in the industry keeping homes from selling fast and for top dollar. 72 Sold provides a 4-step sequence that solves the two major problems that affect sellers. If the market changes, this new system still works because it was built and utilized before the market became hot. In other words, it works in all markets, and especially in changing markets.

Who am I Listing My Home With?

 You are listing your home with the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. Brett and Sande are area program directors for 72 Sold and we are authorized to sell your home this new and better way. We will be using the 72 Sold system as an affiliate partner. You get the best of both worlds. The nation’s #1 selling company combined with this new home selling system that took over the Arizona market. The system has been so good it has been featured on CBS, ABC, NBC, Forbes, etc. I’m sure others will be doing stories too.

New better way to sell homes 72 sold certified
72 Sold Certified New Better Way to Sell Homes

You’ll begin to see ads on TV starting next week. The process is simple. Simply call the 72 Sold hotline 239-444-8150 and leave us your name, phone number, and property address. We’ll schedule a time to preview your home for 15 minutes and give you a price. Your home could be sold in one 72-hour weekend and wrapped up in 8 days from A to Z. Brett and Sande will tell you more about the program when we meet or leave you a brochure explaining the program.

After seeing this new program you’ll begin to wonder why anyone would sell the traditional way again. We did a test run on a listing and had similar amazing results. Not that we doubted its success. It was nice to know that we were able to run the program after months of training and it worked.

If you’re considering selling your home, or perhaps tried in the past and it didn’t work out, call Sande or Brett. We look forward to bringing this new better way to sell homes to SW Florida and getting our clients Top Dollar fast.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Median Home Prices Fell in 2nd Half of 2022

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Median home prices fell in 2nd half of 2022, and if prices do not change course, we are one to three months away from showing price declines year over year. The media and the public in general tend to focus on the headline number which is year over year sales.

Median Home Prices Fell in 2nd Half of 2022

In a few months people will begin reading how home prices are down and they will think the market suddenly turned. The truth is the market turned February 15th of 2022. How do we know this? Some will argue home prices increased until April or May, but many of those sales were the results of pending sales in February. We know this because February 15th is the day inventory started rising. Not long after, pending sales began dropping.

Not all Bad News For Sellers

The news isn’t all bad for home sellers though as prices rose dramatically since 2019. You might be surprised to know that the median home price back in November 2019 was $262,500. November 2022 median price in Lee County was $400,000.  While this number is down from $470,000 back in April, it is still up 52.38% in three short years.

Buyers love to time buying at the bottom of the market, and sellers love to sell at the absolute top of the market. A small percentage of buyers and sellers can time the market perfectly.  Interest rates have impacted homebuyers’ ability to afford as much home as they once did, and this has contributed to a cap on prices.

Sellers need to know what is happening in the market. There is a reason some sellers overprice their homes. They mistakenly believe the market is something it isn’t. This real estate market is great, but it isn’t escalating 2% per month like it was. In fact, median home prices are down 14.89% since April.

Facts Speak Louder Than Words

Our job as Realtors isn’t to trick buyers and sellers into believing the market is hotter or colder. The market is what the market is, and we simply help interpret it for our clients. We would do a disservice to our clients if we tried to sell the market. Rather, we educate our clients on market conditions so they can make the best decision for their family.

We are upbeat about the market. Just because the market is off it’s all-time highs doesn’t mean it’s not a great market. The market rarely stands in one place. It is always on the move, and sharp agents can help you spot opportunities as they happen.

Future market conditions will bring future market changes. Whatever those conditions are, we help our clients spot those changes and react faster. I remember several times when we saw conditions changing for our clients and alerted them before the market realized the changes. We saved our clients thousands by acting sooner.

New and Better Way to Sell Homes

Next week we will be announcing a new and better way to sell homes coming to SW Florida. This new program nets sellers more money than traditional sales, and it works in any kind of market. We expect there to be several expired listings January 1st and many of those sellers will be looking for a new and better way to sell their home. Pricing is just one factor in selling a home for Top Dollar. The other is choosing how the home is marketed.

If you are thinking about selling your SW Florida home, or have tried in the past and not happy with the results, you can call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis at 239-310-6500 or email Brett@topagent.com with the subject line New Way and we’ll put you on a path to selling your home fast and for Top Dollar. Keep in mind, our price may be more than the online value models like www.SWFLhomevalues.com and others.

Stay tuned next week for the announcement.

Happy New Year, and Happy Selling!

Florida Insurance Reform Changes for 2nd Time in 2022

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We have updated Florida insurance reform changes information you need to know.  For the second time this year Governor Ron DeSantis called a special session of the legislature to deal with an insurance crisis in Florida.

Florida Insurance Reform Changes

The insurance crisis was so bad insurance companies were pulling out and leaving the state. Many condominium associations were finding a hard time obtaining any insurance at all, and when they did find it, the cost was prohibitive. Homeowners, perhaps to a lesser extent were also frustrated. Of course, Hurricanes Ian and Nicole weren’t going to help. The real estate industry has been impacted greatly.

In December the legislature approved, and Governor DeSantis signed into law SB 2-A. The previous 2022 bill is SB 2-D. Here is a recap of the Florida insurance reform changes made in 2022.

SB 2-A Signed December 2022

 The newer SB 2-A eliminates one-way attorney fees which were meant to shield policyholders from legal bills when they needed to sue an insurer. Many argued that because one-way attorney fees were permitted it led to frivolous lawsuits. Eliminating excessive and predatory lawsuits should help lower costs in the long run.

The Office of Insurance Regulation was beefed up such that they will be able to assess property insurers performance after a hurricane to hold them accountable and prevent abuses. You can’t take away power from the people without adding protections from abuse.

Insurer timelines were reduced to payout money and into the hands of policyholders quicker after an event. The state also provided additional funding for temporary reinsurance which should further stabilize the insurance market.

SB 2-D Signed May 2022

Roofs

Insurance companies can no longer refuse to issue or renew homeowners’ insurance for roofs less than 15 years old based solely on the age of the roof. If a roof is 15 years old or more the homeowner has the right to hire an approved inspector, and if the inspector states the roof has 5 years or more remaining life the insurance company may not refuse.

Claims

 The homeowner has the right to see the detailed report/estimate by the adjuster. This report must be furnished within 7 days of the request, or completion of the report, whichever occurs later. We have heard instances of insurance companies changing adjusters reports to minimize payouts. This provision will provide the insured with additional rights and information to challenge. If there is a difference between the estimate and the payout, insurers must provide a reasonable explanation of the claim decision.

Insurers must also physically inspect the property within 45 days of receiving a proof of loss statement from the insured, although it does not apply to hurricane claims.

Other Provisions

 There were many other provisions in SB 2-D, like inspections on condos that are 3 stories or higher and 25-30 years old or more depending on their location. Provisions were added regarding repair or replacement of roofs and whether they need to meet new building codes.

Summary

 The main takeaway is these new changes should make insurance more affordable in Florida. We may not see price reductions immediately, but it should entice insurers to come back to Florida and increase competition. Hopefully the insurance companies and attorneys will be on a more level playing field and consumers will win in the end

If you have a property to sell, call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 voted Best in Real Estate 9 consecutive years by News Press Readers in SW Florida.

To find out the value of your home instantly, check out the best home valuation tool around www.SWFLhomevalues.com

New Way to Sell Homes Coming

In the next 2 weeks we will unveil a new program to sell your home in SW Florida. It’s pretty incredible. Give us a call to get on the list. You’ll want to hear about this.

Happy Holidays!

Declining Mortgage Rates Leads to Rising Pending Sales

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Declining mortgage rates leads to a rise in pending sales this past week. Interest rates have fallen below 6.5% and local buyers couldn’t be more pleased.

Declining Mortgage Rates Leads to Rising Pending Sales

This past Tuesday the CPI number was released and it came in at 7.1 While this is a very high number historically, it is less than what it has been and a sign that inflation may have peaked. The markets took this as a good sign which means we could see long term rates fall even further. Don’t confuse short term interest rate hikes with long term rates.

Inverted Yield Curve

We still have a deeply inverted yield curve which signals the United States is in or will enter into a recession soon. Recessions are not good for housing markets. When people lose their jobs or the economy slows down, it keeps prices in check. A slowing economy can lead to weak demand.

Practically speaking, demand should be high. People need housing, either in ownership form or rent form. Housing demand will come from financial ability. On the one hand, lower interest rates will help more people afford more housing. On the other hand, losing your job or seeing a cut in hours doesn’t do much to help qualify for that mortgage.

Current Market Index

What we can say is that lower rates may have helped the local real estate market, and we will take all the help we can get right now. The Ellis Team Current Market Index accurately predicts the future direction of the real estate market. The index has been pointing higher three straight weeks, which was a bad sign for the market. A higher index number is not good for the local market. This past week the number stalled and went back to the number two weeks ago.

All Eyes on the Fed

We are writing this article prior to the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Our best guess is they will raise rates half percent versus the .75% they have been raising. This will be seen as a welcome sign if they do this. Perhaps more important than what they decide will be the language they use in describing their decision. If the Fed signals rate hikes may begin to slow going forward it means they see some progress in slowing the economy and raising unemployment numbers. They intend for people to lose their jobs to help stop the inflationary wage increase pressure.

Remember, the Fed has a tough job to do, and they are not necessarily the consumer’s friend. We have too much money in the economy and they are intent on slowing it down. Of course, Congress could stop spending so much money and that would help. Absent that, the Fed must continue raising rates to blunt overspending in Washington. It’s the only tool the Feder Reserve has, and they are using it.

2023 Real Estate Market

Most experts agree we will see fewer transactions in 2023 than we did in 2022. In 2022 we may have the single largest decrease in transactions in history. People better buckle up because 2023 may see even fewer. Many are expecting another 25-35% drop next year. Some experts are predicting a 30- 40% drop in the number of real estate agents in 2023.

85% of agents today have not experienced a housing shift. They have no idea how to sell homes or find customers in a shifting market. MLS and board dues are due December 31st. Our guess is many agents who have not sold a house all year will not renew their membership. The agent you speak with today may not be here next month. Falling transaction volume has hurt the inexperienced agents badly.

New Way to Sell Homes Coming to SW Florida

We are excited to roll out a new way to sell homes in SW Florida compared to the traditional way. You’ll be hearing more about the program in a few weeks. We will announce the program the 1st or 2nd week in January, and it is good news for home sellers.

In the meantime, you can check out your home’s value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com. If you are interested in a better way to sell your home next year, email Brett@topagent.com with the subject line Better Way and we’ll notify you first.

Happy Holidays!

FNMA Predicts Price Declines in 2023 and 2024

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FNMA predicts price declines in the housing market nationwide for the next two years. In the first quarter of 2023 they predict year over year appreciation at 3.3%, but all this appreciation has already occurred in 2022.  Home prices have been dropping nationwide and the stats won’t show year over year declines until the 2nd quarter.

Starting in the 2nd quarter of 2023 FNMA predicts declines of 1.3%, followed by declines of 1.4% and 1.5% in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Going into 2024 they are predicting declines of 1.4% in the 1st quarter, 1.5% in the 2nd quarter, and declines of 1.4% in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Have Home Values Peaked?

If FNMA is correct, what does all this tell us? Home prices have already peaked, and interest rates and the economy are influencing home prices. They are not predicting major price swings, so buyers can rest assured if they find a home, they love at an interest rate they can afford, they should buy.

FNMA Predicts Price Declines

For sellers, it is a slightly different story. Your home probably already peaked in value back in May. We study the local median and average home prices, and they are split as to when home prices peaked. One says May, the other says June. Since then, we have watched home prices fall locally and nationwide.

As Realtors we do not advocate for prices to rise or fall. The market is what it is, and a trusted Realtor should properly interpret the market and the data and explain what is going on. A good Realtor is your economist of choice if they study the numbers. Over the years the Ellis Team has been able to get our listed sellers out in a declining market because we know how to market a home in a shifting market.

Experience Counts

85% of Realtors today have never worked in a shifted market. They only know one thing, and it’s up. How you price, market, and find buyers changes in a shifting market.

Our Current Market Index stands as high today as it has all year. While the numbers are not alarming, it is not a good sign as our index accurately predicts the market going forward. We have also noticed the differential between active listings and total pending listings is as high as it’s been all year. Another sign that the market has cooled.

The 2021 market is not coming back. We are back to a normalized market subject to market conditions and changing economic numbers. Builders are reducing prices and offering incentives. It is not a horrible time to sell. It might seem horrible compared to previous years. Sellers no longer have the upper hand. The good news for sellers is, neither do buyers. We have a more balanced market than we have seen in years, and that’s not a bad thing.

It Pays to Know the Data

If you’re playing a sport or a board game, it pays to know the rules. If you are buying or selling in the real estate market, it pays to study the data. Knowing what is going on in the street is invaluable. Always ask a Realtor to prove to you what the market is doing. So many Realtors give advice based upon how their personal month is going. A Realtor can have one good month and think the market is great followed by a horrible month the next. This doesn’t mean the market changed drastically, simply that their sales did.

Too many Realtors judge the market by how they are feeling in the market and how their sales are going. True professionals study the market and can explain to you what you need to know to make the best decision. A Realtor’s value is never greater than in a shifting market. Choosing the wrong Realtor can cost you thousands, even when you think you are saving.

Good luck, and Happy Selling! If you are thinking of selling, call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com

December SW Florida Real Estate Market Update

Toys for Tots

The Ellis Team is a drop-off location for Toys for Tots. Please help us provide a Happy Holiday Season by dropping off toys to our office by December 15th.

Toys for Tots Ellis Team Drop-off

Listing Inventory Resumes Rising Trend For Third Consecutive Week

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Single family home and condo listing inventory resumes rising trend for third consecutive week. Single family home inventory rose for the third consecutive week while condo inventory rose four consecutive weeks.

Listing Inventory Resumes Rising Trend For Third Consecutive Week

Pending sales have moderated a bit too, leveling out the past two weeks. One of the things we look at is the difference between listing inventory and total pendings. That difference just reached the highest level all year. Basically this means more properties are coming to the market then jumping off.

This is a trend we saw prior to Hurricane Ian. When Hurricane Ian hit, there was a temporary lull which caused that differential to drop. Since November 9th that differential has begun to resume that upward trend.

Forget Button

Hurricane Ian caused many in SW Florida to hit the Forget Button. They forgot what was happening in the market prior to Ian. Our lives were turned so upside down that economics and reality didn’t matter, if only temporarily. We were in survival mode and everyone did what they had to do to find housing, work, food, water, etc. Now things are settling back down for most and returning to normal, even if it is a new normal.

I don’t like the new normal, but nature didn’t ask my opinion. I don’t like that we don’t have a beach to go to, or the fact so many cannot live in their home after the storm. So many people don’t have their same job because the business isn’t open or doesn’t exist.  Nobody asked for the new normal, and yet to survive we must deal with it.

Rising interest rates caused home buying activity to slow nationwide, and here locally. One of the reasons prices were able to rise like they did the past several years was because of low borrowing costs, but those days are over.  Home prices haven’t statistically fallen much, but it has affected home closings which are down significantly.

Inventory Levels Affect Future Pricing

One of the reasons we track inventory levels is because eventually that could affect home prices. Right now many home sellers can be choosy. Many don’t have to sell, so they don’t. Eventually more and more homeowners must sell for various reasons.  If supply continues to build, it could affect home prices going forward.

The Fed is still tightening short term interest rates. Economic data is due out this week after this article is written which could affect long term interest rates. Recently 30-year mortgage rates have fallen back to about 6.58%, down from over 7%. This has helped some real estate deals. We will keep our eye on rates going forward. Any help we can get on interest rates can directly impact the market.

30 year mortgage rates are pegged on the 10 Year treasury note which declined in recent weeks because many thought the Fed would be less aggressive going forward. We believe the Fed will talk tough this week, and the markets will react. The tougher the Fed talks, the quicker we can get to peak rates and eventually lower rates. The Fed has been slow and behind the curve. They must raise unemployment and slow housing to curb inflation. Both are moving, just not quickly enough to move the needle.

Home Prices

Home prices have remained amazingly steady locally. They don’t seem to be rising or falling, although we are seeing price reductions. This is a sign that sellers do not rule the roost anymore and it is heading towards a balanced market. Going forward we will be watching interest rates, inventory levels, and of course our Current Market Index which we share with Ellis Team sellers.

Home to Sell

If you have a home to sell, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 We’d love to sit down with you and discuss your options. We have more inside information we can share. Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Selling Hurricane Damaged Homes As-Is

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The Ellis Team has been selling hurricane damaged homes as-is in some cases. Many homeowners don’t realize they have this option.  Sellers have several options if their home was damaged.

Selling Hurricane Damaged Homes As-Is

Selling Hurricane Damaged Homes As-Is

Some sellers just don’t have it in them financially or emotionally to go through the entire repair and insurance process. Fort these types of sellers, there are a few options. The homeowner can sell and keep the insurance proceeds or transfer the insurance proceeds to a new buyer. If the seller has a mortgage, and there is enough in the sale to satisfy the mortgage, this becomes an option. For owners who own their home outright, it isn’t an issue.

A seller may sell for more if they can transfer the insurance claim to the buyer, but not in all cases.  We recently sold a hurricane damaged home whereby the seller retained all hurricane claims, both flood and homeowners, and the new buyer accepted the home in its as-is condition.

Obviously a new buyer is going to look at the home and determine how much they think it is going to cost to fix it up. Is the home subject to the 50% Rule? They will probably want some sweat equity for doing all the work and taking on the risk. Additionally, this new buyer may not be able to get insurance on the home. The new buyer could get a builder’s risk policy if the home previously had insurance, even if the seller is keeping the claim money. Additional 50% Rule article.

In other cases, no insurance will be available to the new buyer until the home is repaired and inspected. We do have insurance companies writing policies again for repaired homes.

Pricing

How do you know how much you should ask for your home as a seller? It helps to know the pre-hurricane value of your home. Then, we calculate the repair costs to bring the home back. If the home is subject to the 50% rule, the costs would need to be calculated as brought back to it’s original pre-hurricane condition. Once we know or estimate the cost to repair, a calculation can be made as to what a reasonable person might pay for a damaged home assuming all the risks and work.

To get an estimated value of your home pre-hurricane, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com Do so right away because new sales might start influencing the post-hurricane values. Or better yet, call us at 239-310-6500 and let us help you evaluate your options. We may even know some contractors who can help with some of the work.

Heavy Damage

What if your home is missing, or heavily damaged beyond the 50% and you don’t wish to rebuild? We may be able to sell for the land value and net you more money than rebuilding. Some homeowners didn’t have flood insurance because it was so expensive. In other cases, the flood insurance payment won’t make a dent in what it would cost to rebuild. The point is, you have options, and we can help you determine which is best for you financially and emotionally.

Brett and Sande ask a lot of questions. Many times, it’s not about what we would do. It’s about what is best for you. Is there money to do the repairs? Is your heart in it? How long are you willing to fight the insurance company? We’ve had a few sellers choose an option we would not have chosen, but it is their house and their decision. We absolutely respect and support those decisions. Therefore, we present all options. We feel the best decision is an informed decision based upon your needs.

Your Partner

We are your partner in the home selling process.  We may not know all the obstacles that will come our way during the transaction, but rest assured we will be there with you to help navigate those obstacles should they occur.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. We are your partner in success!

50% Rule Modifications Benefit Lee County Homeowners

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New 50% rule modifications benefit Lee County Homeowners by changing the way damage repair is calculated.

50% Rule Modifications Benefit Lee County

In the past, if a property suffered more than 50% of the home’s improved value in total damage the homeowner would be required to rebuild the structure to today’s codes, including new flood and height requirements. This could cause a total rebuild and would be very costly, exceeding flood insurance coverage if the homeowner had any.

New 50% Rule Modifications Benefit Lee County Homeowners

By adopting a Permit-to-Permit mode, each permit must stay within the 50% rule.  So, let’s say a home suffered severe damage and needed several permits to repair the home.  All told, the permits together total well in excess of the 50% of the improved value of the home. By breaking out each permit, the homeowner can file for one permit, complete the work, then close it out.

Each subsequent permit only needs to be within the 50% of the total value, and so on.  The only drawback is you may be forced to do some work, close the permit, and wait for the next portion of the project. This may slow down the project, however the benefit is the home is rebuildable without having to change codes. Sure, the new roof may need to meet new codes, but the elevation and building height could stay the same.

This is a game changer for many residents. So far, this only applies to unincorporated Lee County. If you live in a city like Cape Coral or Fort Myers, you may need to wait and see if they adopt similar language. We find it hard to believe they wouldn’t, but it is the government, so you never know.

FEMA Controls the Flood Insurance Discount

I’m sure FEMA won’t be completely happy, but each entity oversees implementing their own floodplain plan under FEMA. Fort Myers Beach isn’t taking the same approach, and this video explains why.

This past week we have attended two insurance seminars, so we have learned a great deal about insurance after Ian. Of course, insurance is changing weekly. It’s not that the Ellis Team is smarter than other agents about things like insurance, it’s that we talk to more people, so our learning curve is faster. Having connections is valuable, especially after a disaster like Ian.

Having the reputation and clout to get top people on the phone when you call is valuable. We can offer ways to sell a property when others say it cannot be done. There are options to get insurance even when there is an existing claim, and it is challenging.

Here to Help

Our team is here to help. If you’d like to buy or sell, there may be a way.  We are experts at listening to your situation and helping find resources to accomplish your goals. There are some people that are unrealistic with what they are trying to do, and that’s OK. We listen and help where we can. In some cases, the goal is unrealistic today, and then something changes, like the new 50% rule implementation.

Insurance carriers are opening back up, and so are the options. A seller’s ability to get Top Dollar or sell the property at all will be determined by who they hire to sell their home. The same with a buyer. A buyer’s ability to purchase a home will be determined by the agent they choose to work with.

We have a way of searching MLS and finding damaged home or undamaged homes. Knowing inside tips on searching MLS along with keeping up on insurance and building permits enables us to better serve our clients. We don’t know everything, but we are willing to get in there and talk to people and help figure stuff out.

Always call the Ellis team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s value instantly, or www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

Home Prices Fall Locally in 2nd Half 2022

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Home prices fall locally as rising interest rates and back to work states takes toll on the housing market. The Fed began raising interest rates in earnest in 2022 and the chilling effect on real estate prices was noticed almost immediately.

Home Prices Fall Locally in 2nd Half of 2022

Home prices are right back to where they began in January, around $414,000 for the median price. The average price is a different story as prices went backwards by about $40,000. Headlines show price gains year over year between 12 and 16%, but that was based on last September and not January. We have mentioned in previous articles that later in the year you will see those price gains come down or go away.

Post Hurricane Ian Home Prices

Hurricane Ian may not help prices either, but not because what you would think. Many of our more expensive homes in SW Florida are closer to the coast. We know many coastal homes flooded, so less will sell. This may help bring down the median and average sales prices for a while. It does not necessarily mean home prices are declining, just that the more expensive homes are not closing.

On the other hand, we could argue home prices were already coming down prior to Ian.  So maybe that will continue?  We analyzed home sales after Hurricanes Charley and Irma in a previous article. In both those cases, prices came down after the storm. With Irma, that price decline continued the next year. In Charley’s case, prices went up, but so did the red-hot housing market everywhere.

Our conclusion was that neither Charley nor Irma stood in the way of what was already happening in the market. It’s as if the hurricane had no effect.  If that holds true with Ian, it will be interesting to see where our market heads going into 2023.

Rising Interest Rates

We expect interest rates to rise further as the Fed battles inflation. Forecasts expect rates to level off mid-2023, but then again, they’ve been wrong for all of 2022. The bottom line is nobody knows what the economy, inflation, nor what the Fed will do until it happens.

We are telling people housing is tight in SW Florida, and Ian did nothing to help that situation. If you’d like to search the MLS and see up to the minute listings, search www.LeeCountyOnline.com. Nobody gets data to you faster. Speed wins finding the best listings in this market.

You need a professional to guide you in this market.  Some listings have damage and insurance claims. Each day we are learning more and more about claims, the 50% rule, and how past home improvements might affect the 50% rule. Navigating listings has never been more challenging, and most of the relevant information is contained in the confidential remarks section only agents have access to.

It might be a good idea to get a baseline of what your home was worth pre-hurricane at www.SWFLhomevalues.com and compare that each month after the storm. I would do so quickly before the new values come out.

If you have questions, feel free to call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500. Experience matters after a storm like Ian. Navigating the home sale and insurance process has never been more complicated than today.  85% of agents have never worked after a hurricane, so you don’t want them practicing on your transaction.

We’re here to help. Hopefully you and your family are safe. We know the heartache this storm has caused. It is heart breaking for sure. Our mission is to use our experience to help where we can.  Good luck, and God Bless from all of us at the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.

Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise in 4th Quarter

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Current 30-year interest rates stand slightly over 7%, with mortgage rates expected to rise in the 4th quarter perhaps another one percent. Buyers have sticker shock simply because they’d gotten used to 3% rates for such a long time.

Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise in 4th Quarter

Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise Further

Rates have doubled this year. Many buyers want to wait until rates come down because they do not like the new rates. However, this strategy may cost home buyers as rates are expected to rise in the 4th quarter and into 2023.

Some people believe the Fed isn’t as serious as they say and will stop raising rates. The Fed has stated their target for the rest of 2022 is to raise about 1.25% more. This was before the September inflation data came out that was higher than expected.

We understand why people believe the Fed may pause raising rates. Raising rates will cause a deeper recession, and there is no guarantee it is going to work. The alternative is to do nothing, and high inflation is worse for the economy and Americans in general.

The Fed is fighting inflation and a government that keeps spending. If you pump money into the economy, you guarantee inflation. The Fed would prefer we slow down government spending so they wouldn’t have to raise rates so much. We have a $31 Trillion dollar debt, and rising rates affects the interest payments on that debt. This is not a good position.

Stock Pickers

We believe the Fed will raise rates 75 basis points in November. The stock market may do well until we get closer to the Fed meeting. The 10-year note is currently just under 4% but may start to rise as we get closer to the Fed meeting in November. This is a scenario we’ve seen play out each meeting this year. If you are a stock picker, betting on the market prior to a Fed meeting has been good as long as you sold off a week or two before the next meeting.

Home Buyers

If you are a home buyer, buying sooner rather than later may be in your best interest. A 1% rise in interest rates steals about 11% purchasing power from a buyer. Home inventory is already low and getting lower after Ian.

Rent Vs Buy

We are hearing stories of rents for single family homes exceeding $5,000/mo. Some go as high as $7-10k per month.  That’s basically $60,000-$120,000 for rent for one year. While interest rates might seem high, the cost of rent is crazy right now. Today is one of those days where it is better to purchase versus rent. After a storm, people need quick housing. They immediately turned to rentals, but as that inventory dries up it may force people to purchase.

FEMA housing can’t get here soon enough. It should have been here by now, but it isn’t in any quantity. The battle is going to be getting damaged homes fixed up and ready to sell to meet demand.

Home Sellers

We are working with several home sellers to bring their home to market. Some have damage and some are fairly free from damage. Pricing is determined by how much flood restoration will be needed and/or wind damage. If you are considering selling, now would be a good time to call us 239-310-6500

Our market conditions are changing as inventory changes. Fairly soon interest rates may change too. Buyers and sellers who act sooner may have best success. We took a punch from Hurricane Ian, but it doesn’t have to keep us down. You have options.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty to discuss your options. The Ellis Team was voted the Best Team in Real Estate by News Press readers for the 9th consecutive year. Let us help you figure out the best way forward after Ian.

Best of Fort Myers 2022

Hurricane Ian Information