Readers have been asking for the latest city housing supply numbers in Lee County. We decided to break housing supply numbers down by city/township area instead of the overall county. When you see the overall market in this graph, it is for the overall within these selected cities and not Lee County overall.

Latest City Housing Supply Numbers

The month’s supply of inventory has fallen in every category since we pulled these numbers in April. This is due largely to many sellers taking their home off the market. Data also shows that home sales have increased slightly. Fort Myers Beach saw the largest drop of almost 5 months’ supply. The islands are next at almost 3 months drop.

Bonita/Estero is leading the market with the lowest inventory supply of all the areas in Lee County. Cape Coral is down to 7.43 months in supply of homes, which is exactly what the overall number is. Lehigh Acres is doing better than average, as is Fort Myers. The problem areas are still the barrier islands and the beach.

Sales Activity Analysis

Every single area saw lower homes on the market. All experienced rising home sales except for two areas. Cape Coral and the islands are those two areas. This tells us that the Cape Coral and Islands market are not necessarily improving. It just looks like it because the month’s supply of inventory has declined. Unlike the rest of the county, which is also seeing lower inventory, the Cape and the Islands have declining sales.

When official sales pricing numbers are released next week, we expect median prices to be down about 8.46% It is hard to imagine we will see upward pricing pressure until we get the monthly supply of homes down. This will occur when the pace of homes picks up. The wild card will be the shadow inventory of sellers who would like to sell but have given up on the idea at today’s prices. We expect more sellers to enter the market in the future as the market improves.

Ellis Team Numbers

I was looking at our team’s sales numbers this year. If everything closes this month as it should, our numbers will be up about 100% from the same time last year. This tells us that the strongest agents with the best marketing and sales experience are taking market share because they are selling in this market. Many agents are struggling and don’t know where to turn. We see experienced agents join teams or switch brokerages in search of answers. Costs are up for Realtors, and buyers are fewer and more difficult to convert. Some agents pay for leads, and those costs are rising or disappearing as programs are changing. Many agents are leaving the business altogether, while others are desperately trying to extend their career by cutting costs. This is not a recipe for sellers achieving Top Dollar for their home.

Want to Sell?

If you’d like to sell in this market, give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call at 239-310-6500 You can also visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free online estimate of your home’s value. We can discuss your needs and talk about the best way to sell your home. Not ready to sell yet? It’s never too early to speak with a professional to help you make better decisions for the future.

Looking to Buy

Buyers have the upper hand right now. Negotiating leverage may be at its highest, so take advantage of lower prices and leverage while you can. Check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com to see all the listings in MLS or call us at 239-489-4042 to speak with an agent on our team that can give you valuable insight.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Today we’re going to make some bold home sold price predictions for the Lee County Florida market in May 2025. Official numbers will not be released until June 23^rd, so do not take these as official. Our internal data has been pretty good about predicting what the official numbers will say, but there can be some variance.

Bold Home Sold Price Predictions

We are predicting median home sale prices in Lee County will be down about 8.46% in May. Officially median home sale prices in April were down 8.2%. So, this is a continuation of that trend. One month does not make a trend, but when you string a few months’ worth of data together, it tells a story.

Home inventory is declining. Pending home sales remained remarkably steady this past week. We expect closed sales to be down by about 3.48% in May. We are seeing declining inventory and declining number of home sales. This tells us that home sellers are taking their home off the market and keeping it. Some will rent while others will try again later. Some home sellers don’t need to sell and do not like the current prices the market is delivering, so they will wait.

Ellis Team Current Market Index

The Ellis Team current market index predicts the forward direction of prices. The number has shot up again the past few weeks after being down, back up to the number it was on April 1^st. Because this is a forward indicator, it’s no surprise that home prices fell in May. The return of a higher CMI is indicative that prices are not rising and there could be some downward pressure moving forward. We are nowhere near the numbers we saw back in November and January, so much of that downward pressure has abated. Nonetheless, some pressure still exists.

Interest Rates

Interest rates have been stubborn. The 10-year treasury note is currently trading at 4.446%. We’ve seen it bounce around for months. When rates drop, buyer activity picks up. 30 year mortgage rates are pegged off of the 10-year treasury note by adding a premium to that amount. This week new inflation readings should come out which could influence the market. Remember, we are writing this article before those numbers are released.

Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Currently we have downward pricing pressure. Interest rate drops may spur increased buyer activity. Increased buyer activity may spur more sellers to sell. Inventory has been declining. The real question is, how many more sellers will place their home on the market when sales activity picks up? We do not believe shadow home sellers will come out of the woodwork until they see home prices rising again, or until their motivation changes. That could be a life event, or a desire for a different home that suits their needs better. We have enough inventory that’s going to take a little while for prices to improve. When more inventory hits, it could delay price gains. Shadow sellers are an unknown quantity.

Wild Cards

We also see many wild cards. The price of oil, the tax rate next year, hurricanes, tariffs, possible military action in Iran, the national debt, and more. So many things could impact on the real estate market, both to the upside and downside. We are positive on the market overall. We just cannot tell you about the timeframe for when prices will rise again due to all the wildcards in play.

If you want to buy or sell, you must always deal in the market of the moment. If you have a property to sell, call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com . If you’re looking to buy, you can check out www.LeeCountyonline.com or call us at 239-489-4042. The Ellis Team is always your best choice for unbiased market information that matters when making an offer.

 Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Why do experienced top agents sell more in shifting markets? We will cover the various reasons, and why it matters when selecting an agent in a shifted market.

87% of agents fail within 3 years. Some start out as part-time and many end up as part-time before ending their career. People are attracted to the real estate industry because of the lure of big commissions and schedule flexibility. They quickly realize real estate sales is harder than they thought, requires more work, more money, and more time. At the end of the transaction, after expenses, broker splits, and fees agents are disappointed with how little they keep. People are also disillusioned with the emotional toll a transaction takes. Learning the skills and knowledge to guide people through a transaction and remain calm is a mindset few are prepared for.

Experienced Top Agents Sell More

If agents are going to survive in real estate they must develop better skillsets. The ability to talk to people doesn’t cut it. Understanding people’s needs, fears, finances, and motivation can lead to better solutions for the client. Agents must possess knowledge and solutions after they thoroughly understand the client’s situation. Talking accomplishes none of those things, but listening and understanding does, assuming the agent has the experience and knowledge to offer solutions.

Top agents also invest back in their business. Not only do they invest in themselves with education, they also invest marketing dollars to promote their listings. Gone are the days of relying on the broker to spend money to advertise a listing. Listing a home on Zillow or Realtor.com is not marketing. Almost every listing is there, so if everyone is there, what does that do to make a home standout?

Advertising

Paid advertising creates leads. In lieu of paying advertising, some agents will sign up for referral networks where they pay a referral fee for leads. The problem with this is the company can change the policy at any time, change the fee, or cancel you altogether. Many agents using Zillow have found out this lesson the hard way.

Experienced agents know that clients expect advertising. Advertising helps build a database of buyers and sellers. Without this database, agents are relegated to a pay as you go model. If an agent has a slow month or two, many cannot afford to keep paying. I’ve seen some agents paying $15,000/month for leads and only bringing in $10,000/month from them. That’s a good way to be out of the business in 3 years or less.

Real Estate Cycles

Real estate moves in cycles. Agents come into the business in one cycle and learn how to operate in that cycle. When the market shifts, agents are lost. What worked yesterday no longer works, and the expenses are piling up. Agents who came into the business in the boom times are struggling right now, and have no money and no answers. This is where skillset and capital comes into play.

The last major market shift occurred beginning in 2005. If you find an agent who has been successful since before 2005 you will have selected an agent that has worked in all three types of markets; up, down, and sideways.

Selling Homes

Agents are asking how the Ellis Team is selling so many homes. The answer is education, experience, skillset, hard work, and marketing. We may make it look easy, but it is not. The Ellis Team is good, but it is hard work and takes skill.

We are fortunate. Our sales have been strong the past several months, and we are on pace to have another big month this June. If you have a property to sell, you should call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis at 239-310-6500. We can answer your questions and evaluate your situation. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant free online home value estimate. When you have a property to sell, you’ve got to do something to make it stand out from the crowd. We can help with that! Experienced Top agents sell more. Put the real estate marketing experts to work for you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

We wondered what was in the one big beautiful bill and if it would be good for real estate. The house just passed the bill, and it is subject to change when the senate gets done with it. Real estate has been tough in SW Florida, so let’s see what in this bill would help our market. This is not an endorsement or condemnation of this bill. We simply want to know what’s in it and how it affects real estate.

Key Provisions of One Big Beautiful Bill

1. Individual tax rates remain the same. Failure to pass a bill would mean consumers would see the largest tax hike in history, eroding purchasing power from millions of buyers. For real estate values, this item is essential.
2. Mortgage Interest Deduction is made permanent at current levels, maintaining stability for the housing market.
3. 1031 Exchanges were maintained which encourages investment and ownership of real estate. Eliminating that provision may have taken away many future buyers.
4. SALT deduction was increased to $40,000. This is the state and local tax deduction owners can deduct from federal taxes. This provision was highly controversial, but it did make it in the bill.
5. Immediate expensing for certain industrial structures. This provision encourages companies to build in America, thereby raising jobs and wages in the US. Rising wages helps make housing more affordable.
6. Estate and gift tax threshold was made permanent at $15 million which will allow families to pass down generational wealth without the government taking it.
7. Child tax credit was raised to $2,500 today and goes up in 2029 which will help families with children afford more home.
8. Low income housing tax credits are included which will promote development for more affordable housing.
9. Taxes on social security benefits are slashed which will help seniors keep more of what they earn. In turn, seniors will have more money in their pocket and less going to the government.
10. Taxes on tips and overtime are eliminated from federal tax which will put more money in many people’s pockets. More money means consumers can afford more to offset the costs of housing. This provision helps many of the people who need help with housing the most.
11. Standard deduction is expanded, making it simpler for people to file taxes while reducing taxable income for small business owners

Pros and Cons of the One Big Beautiful Bill

There is a lot to like for housing in this bill. Opponents argue that it will raise the debt, which could lead to higher interest rates down the road. Proponents argue the CBO fails to use dynamic scoring. The last time the government lowered taxes and brought jobs back to the US, revenue to the government increased. Static budget models don’t fully account for growth. If the US does achieve 3% or better growth, we may not see a deficit at all.

Of course, this is politics we’re talking about here. This would mean if more money comes in to the treasury, Congress shouldn’t find a way to spend more. For the US to get back on track, we need to grow revenue and cut expenses. This bill may do that, but some say it doesn’t cut expenses enough.

It will probably be July 4^th through the 31st before we know what the final bill will be, and we can evaluate at that time what it looks like. For now, there is a lot to love, and a few things of concern. We’ll be watching to see how this unfolds, and how the provisions will affect real estate.

Real Estate Help

You can search all homes in the MLS at www.LeeCountyonline.com or call us at 239-489-4042 and our team will help you answer questions.

Our listings have been selling, and we need more! If you are thinking of selling, or tried before without success, call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We’re having great success, and perhaps we can help you make your move too. So many sellers wished they would have called us first.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

We are seeing more real estate buyers taking advantage of the opportunity in SW Florida in 2025. Last year the first half of 2024 was strong, and the second half fell off. Home sales this year are behind the first half of 2024, but they are accelerating. The thinking is the second half of 2025 may be stronger than the second half of 2024.

Real Estate Buyers Taking Advantage

Preliminary April home sales data suggest home prices fell 8.24% year over year. We are writing this article on Tuesday and official numbers will be released on Thursday. Additionally, we are reporting 1,417 single family home sales in Lee County. Last year’s official number was 1,431, so we’ve almost caught up to last year’s number, and we know a few more sales will be added to our unofficial numbers.

Many people might ask, how can you say the market is improving statistically when prices are down? All market metrics do not move at once. First sales need to increase, and inventory levels need to come down. We are seeing sales increasing each month. Some of that is seasonal, and we will be watching the coming months for supporting data.

We are seeing listing inventory declining. Some of that is increased sales, increased pending sales, and perhaps some sellers giving up and taking their home off the market.

Sellers finally lowering prices have real estate buyers taking advantage because affordability has increased. Throw in a rate cut later in the year and sales could increase in the second half of the year versus last year.

Price Direction

Home prices can go down even in an improving market. We still have a lot of inventory to move; plus, the shadow inventory we talked about last week. Also, there are different degrees of improving. Markets can improve gradually or all at once. Most people remember the sharp market shifts, either up or down, so they are unaware of the gradual shifts unless they study the numbers. In fact, it’s easy for Realtors in the business to misjudge the market unless they study the numbers regularly.

Your Home Value Estimate

Check out your home value estimate online for free at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Our site will track your home’s estimate over time and give you a new figure each month. This way you can stay on top of the real estate market and track your value. While some online valuation models do a fairly good job of estimating value, no computer estimate should be taken as 100% accurate. We like to look at the price direction as much as the actual value it states. The Ellis Team is here to validate your price if you’re considering selling, so you know you’re getting Top Dollar when you decide to sell. Call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500.

Price Reductions

The average price reduction was 3.56% last week. If your home is on the market and not getting offers, reducing it $1,000 won’t cut it. It’s always nice to know what other typical sellers are doing in this market to compete. You don’t want to drop too much, but staying at the wrong price too long can cost you. We can help with this too. We have the data.

Ellis Team listings are selling. Aggressive marketing and proper pricing and data are the key. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty before you make a real estate decision.

See Last Week’s Article “Housing Market Improving Locally in SW Florida”

 New Study About Home Sales

Single family Southwest Florida housing supply increased from 5.9 month’s supply last November to 8.36 months presently. We’ll identify which price ranges are the hottest and which are the coolest in this article and provide some insights.

The price range of less than $300k price range saw the greatest increase in listing inventory, up 89% in 5 months. The next price range was $600-800 k with a 64.79% increase in listings followed by the $ 1 Million + range with a 61.85% increase. These increases affected the month’s supply in each of these categories.

Southwest Florida Housing Supply Increase

The price range that saw the most increase in the month’s supply was the $1 Million + range. It gained 6.43 months supply in just 5 months. In November Lee County had 9.74 months’ supply in this price range. That shot up to 16.17 months presently. If you have a $1 Million + priced home, it has to be marketed well and provide value. Buyers have an excellent choice to choose from, and they will only select the best value to them.

If buyers cannot find a suitable home they like, many are waiting on the sidelines, because they are not worried that prices will rise anytime soon. Buyers perceive it in their best interest to wait because they know prices are falling. There is too much competition amongst sellers and inventory is rising. A buyer will act when a home meets their needs, and they perceive the value of the home they like far and exceeds that of other homes they’ve looked at. You’ve heard the saying, “If you’re not first, you’re last.” This is true when there is an abundance of homes on the market in a particular price range.

Pricing and Marketing Critical

Anything $500k and up has about a 10-month supply or more of homes on the market currently.  Pricing and marketing are critical to sell in this market. Working with a Realtor who can listen to the buyers’ wants and fears is also critical to overcoming buyer reluctance in uncertain times. Offering suggestions and alternative ways of thinking about the buyer’s situation is crucial to making a sale today.

While pending sales are down compared to 2024, we had hopes of an improving market when interest rates declined. There was an uptick in pending sales a few weeks back when rates dropped, but suddenly rates shot up again about ¾% overnight as trade wars escalated. Global uncertainty has caused some to pause, which is not good because we already had a backlog of inventory going into season.

Trade Wars

This could all work itself out, but we better get some good news fast. It takes time to work through inventory backlogs, and capital is frozen until supply chain decisions are made. Money is available for lending on homes, but money doesn’t know where to find safety in the economy. The longer this persists, the more repercussions we will see. The good news is, if trade agreements are announced soon, this could all reverse itself quickly and we could begin working down the inventory along with lower rates.

We are frozen in time, and nobody knows for how long. We are still selling homes, but solving uncertainly in the economy makes everyone feel better about making big purchases.

If you have a home to sell, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Put our marketing and expertise to work for you. Or, find out the approximate value for your home instantly at www.swflhomevalues.com Our system will update you the change in value every month, so you’ll know which way the market is headed consistently on your home.

We’re here to help. Good luck, and Happy Selling!