Twas the week before Christmas, Santa couldn’t find a house. Sellers are absent, quiet as a mouse. We could have fun re-writing this timeless poem, but I think you get the point.

The real question is, what will Santa bring this year to the real estate market?  We’ve got some answers.

First off, Santa thinks sellers have been good this year and will reward them.  There is a buyer under every tree, maybe several.  There is nothing better than opening several presents to see which one you like best.  Sellers will like their presents this year.

Buyers will be happy too.  Interest rates are still low while rents are going up.  For those buyers that have saved and prepared their credit, Santa will reward you too.  Buyers who buy before rates go up will save money, plain and simple.  We expect home prices to continue to rise in 2022 as will interest rates.  The sooner you buy the better off you will be as a buyer.  Santa will reward smart shoppers.

Buyers are in competition with other buyers, not so much the seller.  We have more buyers here in SW Florida than sellers, and more are on their way.  We do not anticipate enough sellers to meet the demand for buyers moving here.  Builders cannot build fast enough to meet this demand either.

This is one of those rare instances where it is good for both buyers and sellers at the same time.  When interest rates rise, it will not be as good for buyers. Additionally, as demand continues to increase, it puts further pressure on prices. Buyers could get hit with rising prices and rising rates.

Traditionally when interest rates rise it puts a damper on home buyer activity.  This is because cost of ownership rises for the buyer and limits how much they can pay. What is different this year is more people want to move to Florida for various reasons we’ve talked about in previous articles. 2022 may be a year where we see rising interest rates and continued rise in home prices.

The rate of increase may be slowed, and a lot will depend on the economy and the rate in which people continue to choose to move to Florida. There are wildcards in this formula, so nobody can tell you exactly what will happen or at what pace.

All we can do is tell you what our feeling is on the matter based on what we are seeing today. If you are a buyer and wish to keep up with the real estate market in real-time, we have the website for you. Our website is updated from the MLS every few minutes, so you have the timeliest information anywhere.

Check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com No more looking at homes that sold and closed or missing out on new listings.  That is frustrating! Or call our buyer hotline at 239-489-4042

Sellers, you are in for a treat too. Our seller website www.SWFLhomevalues.com will give you a Free and instant home price, and the system will tell you how accurate it feels by the confidence score.  Of course, Sande and Brett Ellis are available to evaluate your home and talk about the process, so you get the best advice possible.  Call Sande or Brett at 239-310-6500 

We hope you enjoy the holiday season, regardless of which faith you are. We used Santa as an example as most people identify with Santa without regard to faith.

May your blessings be bountiful this holiday season. Always call the Ellis Team with your real estate questions. We will defer to Santa on where to buy everything else.

Happy Holidays!

Experts are expecting three interest rates hikes in 2022 by the Fed. This is in addition to tapering of bond purchases which should end in the 2^nd quarter of 2022 if not sooner. What this means is borrowing costs for consumers is going to go up in 2022.  A 1% rise in interest rates equates into a11% decrease in purchasing power for buyers.

How will this decrease in purchasing power affect the local SW Florida real estate market? In the old days we would say it would directly impact the market. Today we say it is an influence.  Market forces affect the market and tried and true economic indicators are not as significant as they once were.

Law of Supply and Demand

The law of supply and demand is still applicable.  It is called a law for a reason, because it is always true.  Yes, rising interest rates can taper demand from home buyers that are financing.  What it cannot predict is how many homebuyers will be in the area looking, and how financially stable they are.

For instance, we could see an influx of higher end home buyers seeking to purchase with a mortgage. If we have enough of them, the demand can still outpace supply, even if some home buyers qualify for less. Secondly, we must not forget about cash buyers who are less affected by interest rates. I say less affected because they may be affected by homebuyers purchasing another property they may own to generate the cash.

Last year home prices took off in October. The average sales price rose 4.72% in one month from September 2020 to October 2020. The median price rose 3.09% last year in October. This October the average price rose 5.16% over September and the median rose 3.30% Both 2021 measures eclipsed what we saw in 2020.

What is different about 2021 is that we have a decrease in inventory supply of 39.3% heading into these months. In October 2021 we had 1,770 single family homes on the market compared to 2,918 last year.

Three Interest Rate Kikes Expected in 2022

On the one hand we should see rising interest rates that would suggest a moderating of home prices.  On the other hand, demand for homes in Florida has never been greater and more people are moving here than ever before. Which market force will outduel the other? The logic seems to think increasing demand will win out.

Who loses in this market? First-time homebuyers will face significant obstacles.  Already many are being outbid by buyers paying cash or putting significant down payments into the deal.  Rising rates will only exacerbate their situation. People on fixed income or salaried workers without extra cash down payments will be hurt as well. They will have a hard time competing against buyers coming into the state with more money to spend.

Inflation will hurt the average homebuyer as well. They may see a 3% raise all the while everyday costs are going up 6-10%.  This is before factoring in a 11% decrease in purchasing power from rising interest rates. The real estate market may survive and thrive, but pain can be felt from those left out of the process.

Rents have gone through the roof, so the cost of living is definitely higher regardless of whether people purchase or rent.  I truly believe buyers should buy now, even if the home is not their dream home.  It will protect them against rising rents and inflation. As cost of materials to build go up, owning a home can be a hedge against inflation and protect homeowners. The non-perfect home you buy today may be the steppingstone for your next home in the future.

We have a team of experts that can help you find your dream home or steppingstone home now to avoid the costly interest rate hikes coming next year.  Call us at 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com. If you are interested in selling, call Sande or Brett Ellis at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com

The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index accumulates data from financed home purchases using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as their source. The FHFA HPI shows the Cape Coral Fort Myers housing market as the #2 fastest rising prices year over year, and #1 fastest rising in the past quarter.

In other words, home price appreciation is not slowing down in the Cape Coral Fort Myers housing market. Both cities are lumped into an MSA, so therefore you will see it labeled as Cape Coral Fort Myers housing market.

Florida ranked #5 out of all states, and Florida scored 8 out of the top 28 spots nationwide.

 

Why is Florida doing so well? People are attracted to Florida for a variety of reasons. Of course year-round sunshine, moderate temperatures, beaches, golfing, fishing, boating are the usual things you hear about Florida. Lately it is more than that.

In the past 5 years people have been moving to Florida for lower taxes, police protection, remote work, and less mandates. Entire companies have decided to relocate to Florida as well as induvial families and workers.

Is there a Bubble? Prices rise when there is more demand than supply. We do not see demand slowing down anytime soon. In fact, it feels like it is accelerating. Sometimes it takes companies years to make a relocation happen, and some of these have been planned 3-5 years ago and we are just now seeing them come to fruition.

We do not have enough supply. Builders are building as fast as they can, but they cannot keep up. Supply chain issues have only made it worse.  Demand is picking up and supply is getting worse. In this mathematical equation there is only one way for prices to move, and it is up.

Other parts of the country are talking about a slowdown in growth. The key word there is growth. Prices are still rising, just not as fast. In Florida, we have seen an uptick in growth. Everyone that moves to Florida is moving from somewhere else.

We have not even hot season yet, and recently we just opened our borders to Canada. You will notice our roads are a lot busier now too. Demand is accelerating. Supply is not.

Some fear a new Covid variant may damper the economy. It might. Keep in mind when Covid originally hit Florida became popular. If a new variant were to become rampant, who is to say Florida wouldn’t attract even more?

Right now, it seems Florida wins no matter what happens. Can unforeseen circumstances change all this? Sure, anything is possible. All we are saying is the old rules of work and where people want to live have changed, and Covid has sped that thought process up.

If you are a buyer and hesitant to pull the trigger because you hear the market may fall, you might be in for a rude awakening. We do not see any apparent signs today this market is in a bubble, in fact to the contrary.

We have some excellent tools to keep up on the market. Our seller website www.SWFLhomevalues.com gives Free and Fast home value reports. Our buyer website www.LeeCountyOnline.com shows you the latest listings and is updated within minutes.  No more looking at old listing data or missing out on hot new properties.  Our websites are the best in the business and keep you informed in a fast-moving market.

If you are thinking of selling, call Brett or Sande at 239-310-6500 and we’ll be happy to show you how we can get you Top Dollar through our advanced marketing nationwide.

If you are a buyer simply trying to score a property, call our buyer hotline at 239-489-4042 and we will get you a buyer agent fast and on track to getting your next home.

Good luck and Happy real estate shopping!