If you look at the chart you will see how interest rates influence home sales. Look at 1982 as an example. As interest rates began to fall, the number of home sales began to rise. Then again starting in 1996 we saw rates falling and home sales rising.

Interest Rates Influence Home Sales

Fast forward to 2021. Rates bottomed out at 2.74% then started rising. Almost simultaneously home sales began falling. Sometimes there is a lag, but if you look at the chart many times it’s instantaneous.

Interest Rates Influence Home Sales in 2024

Nobody knows for certain where rates will be in 2024. As I write this article the 10-year yield stands at 4.471%. Three weeks ago, it was at 4.934%, so it has fallen about a half percent in the last 3 weeks. Some believe the Fed is about done hiking rates. Others believe the Fed may have one more rate hike in them.

Keep in mind, mortgage rates are not directly tied to what the Fed does. The market sets its own rates more closely tied to the 10-year yield. This is why we study it so much. What the Fed does can influence the 10-year yield, but the markets can also buck whatever the Fed does and do their own thing too.

Most people we talk to believe interest rates will start coming down some in 2024.  Most agree it could eventually get down into the 6’s somewhere, sometime between later 2024 or mid-2025. The average interest rate from 1971 through 2023 is 7.74% If rates come down into the 6’s, we could see a lot more buyer activity, which begs the question. If I am a buyer, should I buy now, or wait?  We’ve written several articles on this. We believe if you need a home, buying sooner before rates fall might help you beat out other buyers who have also been waiting for rates to drop. We know that interest rates influence home sales.

Should Homeowners Sell Now?

This depends on your needs. Some say prices nationwide could fall further as rates stay in the 7’s, but could level off once they hit 6’s.  Our advice would be, if the home isn’t working for you now, consider selling now. This is especially true if you’re selling and buying as you’ll be buying before rates fall and buyers jump back in.

Election

Truthfully, nobody knows where the economy will be in a year, what inflation will be, and what the election will look like in 2024. I saw an analysis the other day that showed election years tend to be steady until the uncertainty of who takes over shakes out. If this is true, we could see a steady year in 2024 with peak interest rates beginning or thinking about falling. This could set us up for a decent 2025.

Home Sales

We expect there to be about 4 million national home sales in 2023, and about 3.7 million in 2024. Unemployment may rise, which was the Fed’s goal to bring down inflation.

Florida may outpace the rest of the country once rate direction becomes established. Living anywhere in the South half of Florida might be a good bet, if you can afford it. Rising insurance and taxes are pushing some out while a new crop of buyers replaces them.

Always Call the Local Experts

The Ellis Team studies the market as well as anybody. Our team can guide you through your decision. We listen before we offer advice. We’re not here to sell you anything. Our goal is to help you make the best decision for your family. We might challenge you with some facts so you have something to think about. We don’t follow the herd mentality, rather what is right for you.

You can call us at 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com and search the MLS like a pro. Your data will never be sold to 3rd party companies or other Realtors, so you won’t have 20 Realtors calling you by signing up. Your data is safe with us, and you will only hear from us. Now that’s a Thanksgiving deal worth celebrating!

Hope your turkey dinner was great. Let us know how we can help you!

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Ellis Team Weekend Open House River Grove Estates
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Over 1 Acre Lot with fenced back yard, shed, 2+ car garage

Today we want to explore real estate false imprisonment. Back in 2007-2012 we used the term real estate prison because people felt they were in prison in their own home because they were upside down on their mortgage.  The only way out was to short sale, bring a bunch of money to closing, or default and risk foreclosure. Their needs changed but they could not financially get out.

Real Estate False Imprisonment

Get Out of Jail Card

Virtually nobody is in real estate prison today because so many paid cash in the big runup or paid a large down payment because they were competing with other buyers. Additionally. prices appreciated so much and have not fallen like they did back in the 2000’s. Sellers today do not feel like they are a prisoner in their own home because of home values, they feel locked in for another reason. We call it real estate false imprisonment.

So many people financed their home at rates around 3% and they don’t want to give that up. If they were to make a move today, they would trade in that 3%ish rate for something closer to 7% or more. So, many are holding tight.

Waiting For Interest Rates to Change Could Cost You

Last week we talked about how waiting for rates to come down might hurt many home buyers. This is also true for homeowners who feel locked into their existing home. There is a downside to waiting to make a move.

Here is what we do know. A home feels comfortable for you for a period of time. It meets your needs. Then things change in your life, and your homeownership needs change. Some people outgrow their home, others want to downsize when the kids move out, and others need to change locations. Still others get tired of the homeowner life and opt for the carefree condo life. Some try the condo life and love it while others say not me and move back to a single family.

Whatever your needs are, they change over time. Back in the early 2000’s people were locked into their homes due to financial reasons. This isn’t true today.  While it can be uncomfortable living in a home that no longer works for you, many do it. Most do not realize there is a better way. Sellers today have options, and there is more inventory available to move to. When rates were rising, many sellers didn’t pull the trigger because they didn’t know where they would move to. Be sure to read last week’s article “Interest rate Purchase Strategy

New Programs

We literally have new programs now that allow you to purchase another home, so you are not homeless, then sell your existing home. You only make 1 payment on the new home with no payments on the existing home. This gives you time to move into the new home and sell the home that is no longer working for you. You also avoid having 2 payments.

Trusted Advisor

The key is sitting down with an experienced Realtor you trust and going over your options. We perform a needs analysis and identify where we can improve your situation. Our team has resources to help you identify ways to make a move happen for you at the least inconvenience to you, and the least cost. It doesn’t cost anything to sit down with us and discuss your options.

We know what it’s like to sell and buy. We’ve done it ourselves, and we’ve helped thousands of clients just like you do it. Making a move doesn’t have to be hard if you’re working with the right people.

Give the Ellis Team a call. 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande will sit down with you and discuss your needs. Is a move right for you? We won’t know until we talk. For some it is the right move. Some decide to stay put. The decision is yours, and it’s always easier with the right information. We are not here to sell you anything. We enjoy giving people their options. Should you decide a move is right for you, of course we’d be honored to work with you. Don’t let real estate false imprisonment keep you from living in the home that best suits your needs. Or visit www.swflhomevalues.com to get a quick estimate of your home’s value.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

We’ve been having a lot of discussions lately with buyers regarding their interest rate purchase strategy. With rates rising so fast, naturally they ask the question if now the right time is to buy.

Here is what we know about interest rates, and the 3 implications of waiting for rates to drop.

Interest Rate Purchase Strategy

Interest Rates Could Go Up

If rates go up, it will cost you to wait. As rates increase, so does your payment.  You may even qualify for less home if rates continue to rise.

Interest Rates Could Stay the Same

We could have a period where rates stay the same for a while. In this scenario, as a renter you’re getting nowhere.  Your landlord thanks you, but you are gaining no equity whatsoever. When you rent, the interest rate is always 100% because all goes to somebody else and none to you or your equity.

Interest Rates Could Go Down

This is perhaps the worst possible scenario for buyers. Like you, other buyers have been on the fence too. When rates decline, other buyers hop off the fence and jump into the game. They become your competition for buying the same homes you are looking at.

When this happens, it can put pressure on the market and cause prices to go up. We saw this movie a few years ago when the rates were lower. Buyers were tripping over themselves to buy anything they could. At this point, sellers are not your competition. Your competition is all the other buyers looking to purchase the same home you are.

Added Benefit

Not only can you lock in a home price today while there are fewer buyers competing for more homes, you have an added benefit. You may be able to refinance later when rates come down. Contrast this with buyers who wait. They may be paying a higher price for the home. You locked in your price when rates were higher, and now you can refinance at the same rate they’re trying to buy a similar home for. You’re both financing at the same rate down the road, but you may be in the home for much less because you bought before prices started rising again.

In all three scenarios a buyer is better off buying today than waiting for rates to drop. We haven’t even mentioned yet the tax advantages of writing off interest versus rent. It’s easy to follow the masses and do what everyone else is doing because there is safety in numbers.

The truth is, this is where the opportunity lays. Opportunity always comes from doing the opposite of the masses. In the stock market you buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying. While we are not giving stock advice or predictions on what the real estate market will do, we do know a few things.

Over time, owning your own home is a good bet. The sooner you start that process the more wealth you are likely to have over your lifetime.

Home Buyer Seminar

The Ellis Team conducts home buyer seminars for people wanting to learn how to get into their first home or build wealth through real estate. If you’d like to attend a future seminar, give our office a call at 239-489-4042 We’ll be happy to get you into our next seminar, or meet with you one-on-one if that helps too.

You can also search for all the homes in MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Our team is experienced and can give you the latest market data to help you make better decisions. We also have access to financing options that you might not know about. We have ways to get that rate down and several programs to get that down payment down too.

The Ellis Team looks forward to helping you make a good decision for your family. If you are a seller, you should call us too. Put our Know How to work for you. Experience wins the day, and the Ellis Team definitely has the experience.

 

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!