Aggressive marketing and proper pricing is key in a shifting market, and SW Florida has been in a shifting market since May 2022.

Aggressive Marketing and Proper Pricing

For instance, last January the median percent of original list price received was 100%. In January 2023 that slipped to 95.5% In other words, sellers are accepting less than full price, or being forced to reduce their price before accepting a full-price offer, on average. There are still some full price and above offers going on, but they are occurring much less frequently than last years fast paced market.

We’ve been saying for months year over year pricing will come down starting in about April if nothing changes. Official numbers were just released and the median price versus last year was up 1.6%. The average price was up 1.3%. This tells us the market is flat year over year.

You have to dig deeper to realize that last year’s price runups occurred up until April and May. Prices have since slipped backwards since then, but nobody realizes it because they are focusing on year over year numbers. We like to look at month over month then account for seasonality.

Interesting Numbers

 Months supply of inventory is up 220% from last year. Active listings are up 150.7%, and pending inventory is down 28.7% Closed sales are down 21% from last January.

In order to sell today, sellers must know exactly what is going on and price accordingly. Sellers also must list with an agent that is aggressive in marketing as buyers have more choices to choose from than last year. Your home must stand out, and marketing is one way to do that.

Thankfully clients of the Ellis Team at Keller Williams are well informed on the market, and we utilize cutting edge marketing, making our homes stand out. We are also using a new patented system to help our sellers sell faster and for more money than the MLS.

New Tracking Technology

 Soon we will be releasing new technology that will track your home’s value over time.  If you’d like to get an idea of your home’s online value today, simply go to and type in your address. The system will email you your home value report. This site is one of the best sites we know of to track your home price. However, we won’t stop there.  If you like, we’ll track additional sources and update you over time. Stay tuned for exciting information on this, but you can get started now.

Better Way to Sell than Traditional

 If you’re thinking of selling in the next 1-2 years, you can call Sande or Brett Ellis at 239-310-6500. We can show you our patented system that gets our sellers homes sold faster and for more money.  6,440 home sellers that used this program over 2.5 years averaged 8.4%-12% higher prices than their local MLS median price. It can cost you to hire the wrong Realtor!

In a shifting market, knowledge and experience matters more than ever.  Brett and Sande Ellis have been through several shifts, so we know that aggressive marketing and proper pricing is key netting you the most money and getting your home sold before all the price reductions.

We look forward to answering your questions. We are not pushy, but we get results.  Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams with your real estate questions. 239-310-6500

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Hot off the press we have a look at February 2023 housing inventory supply numbers for Lee County Florida. Single family home inventory grew to a 2.81 month supply, up from 1.9 back in July of 2022.

February 2023 Housing Inventory Supply

Three price ranges saw the largest gains in inventory. The biggest gains from last July came in the $250-300k range, the $300-400k range and the $1 Million plus.

In the February 2023 housing inventory supply numbers, every single range saw an increase in inventory except the below $100k range because there are no homes for sale in that range right now. There has been a 23.09% increase in the number of listings on the market since July. The rolling 365-day closings has decreased 16.93%.

It’s simple math. If listings go up 23% and closed sales go down 17%, housing inventory supply numbers are going to increase. We have been predicting this for months as we track the weekly numbers.

Inflation and the Real Estate Market

 The Fed released CPI numbers this past week which shows inflation persisting. The risk of recession is greater now and the bond market is forecasting it with a deepening inversion of the yield curve. Early analysis suggests the Fed will have to raise rates more than previously thought and keep them there longer.

The Fed’s intention is to slow housing and raise unemployment. It is working, but it is a slow process because inflation got so high. The best way to fix inflation would be to get the 5 million people who choose not to work back at work, and for the government to quit spending money.  Both are tall orders, so the only other way the government has to control inflation is through monetary policy.

Basically, the consumer will be forced to do what the government cannot, at great expense to the consumer. Companies are laying off thousands, and eventually this will wear on wage growth. Fuel prices are going back up as China comes back online and release from the petroleum reserve wear off. Our petroleum reserve is at dangerously low levels and we cannot continue to release more oil, even though we just announced 26 million more barrels to be released over the coming months. This is all in an effort to bring down inflation, but it is a band aid.

Buyers Expect Prices to Drop

 Buyers are reluctant. Many are waiting for prices to drop. Buyers fail to recognize prices have already dropped about 10-15% from their highs last year. Granted, some of that is seasonal, and some of it is real price deterioration. Buyers have been reading articles that suggest another 15% drop and they believe it.

Interest rates have ticked up again in the last week, and each time they do buyers cool off. The good news is pending contracts are up. Buyers are here to buy, but they don’t want to overpay. Buyers are looking for value, and they are finding it. When an inspection item comes up, or when a new home comes on the market, buyers are quicker to back out now than last year.

In other words, buyers are skittish. Sellers are confident. That math doesn’t always work. When buyers become confident the home they are buying is a good deal, they accept market risk with less fear. When buyers don’t feel like the home they are buying is worth the risk, they back out at much higher rates.

Home to Sell

 If you have a home to sell, the Ellis Team can help you pick a price where the seller can be confident, and the buyers feel like completing the purchase.  You can always get a Free On line price at It’s quick, easy, and does a decent job in most cases if giving your home’s value. We think it’s fun to track the direction of the market over time as it will give you a new price each month.

Always call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 for your price and strategy to sell your home fast and for Top Dollar in this market.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

See last week’s article “Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels

SW Florida housing demand strengthens to July 12, 2022 levels. Back in July we had 1,858 total pending sales compared to 1,840 today. The difference is back then we only had 2,863 single family homes on the market compared to 3,366 this week.

Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels Supply-Demand Chart

Additionally, more homes tend to go pending in season, so we cannot say the market is back to last year’s blowout numbers. What we can say is increased pending sales are an encouraging sign. The market is not dead. We still have a robust market if homes are priced appropriately.

Current Market Index

Today we have an Ellis Team Current Market Index of 1.829. Back in July, we had 1.541, so the market isn’t as robust moving forward as 6 months ago.  However, the index is down 5 consecutive weeks which means the market has been picking up.

If you’ll recall, the Ellis Team Current Market Index has been instrumental in predicting forward direction of the market. Our proprietary algorithm tracks key market indicators and gives us a better read on the current market and possible future changes to the market. Because of the index we’re not surprised that housing demand strengthens to July 2022 levels.

7-Day Market Watch

 The 7-day Market Watch from MLS confirms buyers are back. Single family pending sales outpaced new listings, so buyers have responded. Sellers have responded too because we saw more price reductions than new listings, This is evidence the market is rebalancing itself. We believe official sales for January will show price increases over last year, so the market held on to some gains from last year. The market will have to pick up even more to match prices going into April, but that usually happens as we go through season.

Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels

We like the upward trend the market is showing us. Interest rates are down about 1% from their highs and buyers are responding. It could very well be that interest rates may drive the future direction of the market.

Some are anticipating long term rates could still decline even if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. Gas prices have been on the rise again, and many are predicting the economy to cool off. Earnings season has begun for corporations, and so far, earnings have been a disappointment. The stock market can’t decide if it wants it take off on hints the Fed may stop raising soon or pull back due to lower earnings forecasts.

Trading Range

 Both the stock market and the real estate market could be in a trading range. Until the economy and interest rates show their cards, the price of stocks and real estate may hold steady. A breakout may occur once solid information shows up, and that could be latter half of 2023 or 2024.

Home prices have already adjusted downward, and we believe that will show up in the year over year numbers in April or May. From here on out it may be steady as she goes until the market gives us some signs.

Your Home’s Value

 If you’re interested in your home’s value, we have an online tool that values your house it minutes. It’s free, and its fairly accurate, at least as far as computers go. It can be found at

If you’re thinking of selling, we have a home selling system so good it’s been patented. Our system is designed to get your home sold in 8 days and for Top Dollar. Simply give us a call us 239-310-6500 and Brett or Sande will be glad to show you how it’s different than selling the traditional way.

If you need us, we’re here to help. Good luck, and Happy Selling!

We’ve all seen the TV ads, postcards, billboard signs, social media posts, etc. . Get a guaranteed offer on your home. You would think from all the advertisements this is a popular option.

Guaranteed offer on your home



 The reality is nationwide only 1.3% of all home sales were purchased in this fashion. It is called iBuyer, which stands for instant buyer, and many companies and some agents have offered it.  Why isn’t the iBuyer concept more popular?

Some agents use iBuyer as a listing lead source. They really do not want to purchase your home, but it gets sellers to make the call. Sellers are naturally curious what they can sell a home for with no hassles.  It isn’t until they receive the instant price that they are turned off, but the agent is there and can offer them a better solution.  The agent also has a full-value program whereby they list the home on the open market and fetch a much better price.  If it doesn’t sell, the seller always has the fallback option of the lower instant offer.

Keep in mind, the agent may never wish to buy the home.  They use this as a listing lead source to get in the door. And, if they ever do have to buy a home, for darned sure they want to make money off it.  So, who loses?  Typically, the seller. The seller may be so worn down after a lengthy listing process that they agree to take the lower instant offer.  In fact, they might be convinced that the market was never as high as they believed and the instant offer is the fair market value, which may not be true.

Guaranteed Offer on Your Home is a Lead Generation Tactic

I know of an agent in another state that has offered this program. I asked him how many homes he has bought, and he said none.  The program is a listing lead generation program.

True iBuyers wish to purchase your home at a discount and sell it for more money in hopes of making a profit. Generally, the home must meet certain parameters. iBuyers like homes that are in good condition and have established neighborhood data. They like homes to be in certain sellable price ranges, usually less that $500-$600k, and not require much remodeling or repairs. They are similar to flippers, except some flippers are willing to remodel and improve the home if they can buy it right.

A Better Faster Way

 Many sellers do not know that there may be a better option for them. We became aware of a system that attracts top dollar for homes and sells the home in 8 days, so the amount of time showing is limited. One thing sellers do not like is having their home on the market for months and keeping their home show-ready all that time. Plus, the longer a home sits on the market the more buyers wonder what is wrong with it.

The Ellis Team invested time and money learning this new system, and so far the results have been amazing. We used the new system on 4 listings and 3 out of the 4 indeed sold within 8 days or so.  Two sold at full price or better, and the third was close but had significant hurricane damage so the price was adjusted. The 4th is close to selling as well but has gone over the 8 days. This is significant because in each case the seller has done better than the market. Listing inventory is growing in SW Florida and traditionally marketed homes aren’t receiving multiple offers like they were last year. Many of our listings using this new system are receiving multiple offers.

If you are thinking of selling, give Sande or Brett at call at 239-310-6500. We’d love to sit down with you and show you how you can maximize your home sale and do it quickly.  We do have investors that are buying homes instantly. If an instant sale is your thing, we can look at that. The reality is, we can probably net you more money and have a fast sale. Call us and we’ll talk.

Good luck and happy selling!

Coming Soon Listing in Eagle Reserve

Coming Soon Listing in Eagle Reserve
Heated pool home on the lake-gated community

4732 Imperial Eagle Dr

4 Bed, 3 Bath Pool Home on the Lake-Gated Community