The Ellis Team SW Florida Current Market Index improved slightly for single family homes this past month, which is a good sign heading into season. The condo index fell slightly.  Listing inventory increased in both single family homes and condos in southwest florida, as did pending  sales for single family homes, which caused the index to improve..  In fact, pending sales climbed at  greater rate than what we’ve been seeing in past months.

Buyer activity has increased, and demand for our Southwest Florida short sale seminar is growing as well.  If you’d like to attend our next free SW Florida short sale seminar, please call our office to register.  We teach first time home buyers. move-up buyers, and investors how to consistently buy properties at or below today’s fair market value, and educate consumers about the local SW Florida real estate market.

The CMI Index actually fell in Cape Coral Florida where most people believe the worst of the inventory crisis is.  The CMI illustrates that while inventory has grown in Cape COral, pending sales have kept up and are holding their own.   In fact, the CMI Index in Cape Coral is only 14.63  In Fort Myers, the Index is 19.83

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.

December  17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,098 892 18.05
Condo 8,655 386 22.42
November 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,710 797 19.71
Condo 8,361 388 21.55
October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20
September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06
August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64
July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91
June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06
May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44
April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535


The SW Florida real estate market posted a 23.85% gain in sales over the previous month, and a 3.32% gain in median price over the previous month, according to latest sales statistics reported by the Florida Association of Realtors.  Single family home sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral were down compared to October of 2006, but that was last year’s market.  We’re more interested in how the market is changing now, not what happened last year.

Many of last years sales were a result of sales in 2005.  Closings today are more closely associated with sales recently as the backlog of builder inventory has been absorbed.  In fact, most builders have sold off most all of their unsold inventory, and are now working on sales for new construction now.  This is alleviating some of the downward pricing pressure on resales, which is a positive sign moving forward.

As you can see from the SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed Graph, 2007 closed sales have rebounded and headed upward again. The same is true with 2007 prices, as evidenced by the SW Florida Real Estate Sales Prices 2005-2007 graph.  If the trend continues it is possible we could catch 2006 numbers on both the sales price numbers and the closed sales numbers soon.

It appears that foreclosures will peak 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2008, which could be the final leg in the market correction.  If true, 2008 should be a year of bouncing along the bottom with mild fluctuations up and down.  The buyers buying window of opportunity looks like it may be greatest now through the next 6 months or so, then the pendulum will slowly swing back towards equlibrium.  This swing will take some time, and because interest rates have recently swung lower, now may be the best time for the buyers.

The US  currency is also making the US real estate market attractive to foreigners who also will be competing to buy some of these properties.