Lee County housing supply increased in February up to 5.84 months supply, up from 5.05 months at the beginning of the year. Let’s break down which price ranges have changed the most.

Lee County Housing Supply February 2024

All price ranges increased in inventory, but as we go higher the effects seems to be much greater. For instance, the $300-400k market increased by .44 months. The $400-600k market increased by .82 months. The $600k-$1 million market increased by 1.07 months, and the $1 million+ market increased by 2.31 months.

Lee County Housing Supply Grows on the High End

 The data shows the higher priced homes have been hit the hardest by inventory supply. So, what is causing the buildup in inventory? Is it increased homes for sale or decreased sales, or both?

For the $300k and up price ranges, it’s a mixed bag. Home sales in the $300-400k range are steady, down only 7 sales. The real reason is inventory is up 164 listings. For the most part, the increase is due to more sellers bringing their home to market and the market not absorbing them.

The $400-600k range saw a decrease of 46 sales and an increase of 237 listings since the beginning of the year. This tells us more listings are coming to the market, and there are less buyers for the existing inventory, let alone new listings.

In the $1 million plus market, sales only declined by 10 homes. The reason inventory supply shot up so much is because listings increased by 214 homes.

Technically the $400-600k range had the largest drop in home sales and the largest gain in listings, so you would think this range would have the greatest increase in housing supply. The reason it is not is because there are so many more listings in sales in this price range than the $1 million plus range, so the changes don’t move the numbers as much.

Cost of Sitting on the Market

If you have a home in one of these price ranges, it pays to know exactly what the market is doing, We have a series of charts that shows definitively the cost to sellers when they fail to understand where their home fits in the marketplace. The charts show the difference in selling in a stable market versus a shifted market, and the disadvantages of chasing the market down. When Sande and Brett meet with sellers at a listing consultation we can go over these graphs, as well as the inventory graphs of our current market.

Economist of Choice

It is by truly understanding the market data that a seller can make appropriate decisions about marketing their home. Marketing is a combination of pricing a home commensurate with today’s market conditions, as well as all the daily activities and paid advertising sources a Realtor employs to sell a home. Your selection of a Realtor should consider who will pay to advertise your home, how much and where they will do so based upon results, the activities and communication the Realtor provides, and the pricing based on today’s market conditions. The Realtor you select should be your economist of choice, not who tells you what you want to hear and is your friend.

If you selected a price to sell your home 3 months ago, it may already be outdated. We spend hours each week making sure our listings are current with the market. If we met with you in the past but did not list your home, we need to update that value because it could be obsolete.

Market is Always Moving

We have one of the best free online home valuation tools available at www.swflhomevalues.com. However, even these online value tools can be several months behind the market. It pays to consult with a real estate professional that can provide you detailed market statistics. While the online tools are great, nobody really knows how they come to the conclusions they do.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Many buyers we talk are waiting for lower interest rates before purchasing a home. Today we’re going to explore why this may be a dangerous game, and why we believe the next 6 months may be the best time to purchase your next home.

Waiting For Lower Interest Rates a Dangerous Game

Traditionally home prices appreciate about 4% per year over time. Some years yield more, and some years yield less. Even though we have a greater supply of current inventory on the market right now, we don’t have enough supply to satisfy all that will be able to buy when rates move lower and those moving here. Builders have not been keeping up with demand moving to Florida.

Waiting For Lower Interest Rates Home Price Appreciation

FNMA issued home price predictions moving forward. If you were to buy a home in 2024 using their price predictions your home would be worth $472,405 in 5 years, for a gain of $72,405.

Interest Rate Comparison

Let’s say you could finance a home today in the 6.5% range. The actual rate doesn’t really matter because the point I’m going to illustrate is a 1% interest rate decline from whatever rate you could get. If a buyer were to finance today at 6.5% mortgage rather than a 5.5% mortgage it would cost them $3,802.71 in extra interest for the 1st year. As you pay down the principal the interest declines slightly for each year. The total a buyer would pay over 5 years for a 1% differential in rates would be $19,027.04 in this hypothetical example.

Wait a Minute

A buyer who does nothing waiting for rates to decline would cost themselves $53,377 by waiting.  Now you might argue, “yes, but what if the buyer bought a year or two down the road? It wouldn’t cost them the whole 5 years.

Equity loss by waiting for interest rates to drop 1%

That’s right, it wouldn’t, but we have three other items to consider. First, the buyer who waits for rates to decline down to 5.5% may convince themselves to wait longer until they come down to 4.5%. Those that wait now are just as likely to wait longer later. Secondly, as rates come down, inventory may come down and there would be less homes available to bid on. Getting the home that meets your needs could get tougher. Lastly, when inventory gets low, prices can appreciate faster, especially when builders have not kept up with new demand. Existing homes just are not enough for all those moving to Florida.

If you were around a few years ago, you know that when things heat up, a 4% appreciation rate is conservative. Waiting for lower interest rates can be a dangerous game.  It’s kind of funny, because back in December of 2017 I wrote an article about the cost of waiting as interest rates were rising. It’s ironic that there is a cost of waiting as interest rates are falling as well. The result is the same, it’s just the variables in the equation have flipped. If you’d like to read that article it is available at https://blog.topagent.com Simply go to the archives in December 2017.

Best Time is Next 6 Months

We believe the Fed won’t begin to lower rates for about 4-6 months. The mortgage market may bounce up or down, but until the markets get a sense of bond market stability, rates will remain high. Buyers have a window as inventory is building. They are in their best negotiating position, but that window could close or shrink later this year.  Why not buy now and lock in those potential gains? Then, when rates do go down, refinance and capitalize. That way you can lock in appreciation and lower housing costs later if rates fall. The best of both worlds, and you’re on the equity train.

Don’t be that buyer that waits, and waits, and regrets it later. Some people wait to see evidence the market has turned, and it’s too late for them. All the people who should have bought in 2018 but waited are still kicking themselves.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We’ll get you pre-approved with a great lender and a ticket on the equity train to start building your wealth. Call us today! Search the SW Florida MLS like a pro.

Lee County year end 2023 median sales prices fell 2.3%. The year end sales price is the average of the entire year, so it doesn’t necessarily mean December 2023 sales price.

Lee County Year End 2023 Sales Prices

For instance, the median sales price in Lee County for December 2023 was $399,000. That was a 2.2% decrease from 2022 numbers of $407,950. The average sales price fell .9% in December and 1.4% for the year.

Prices Peaked

As you can see from the graph, Lee County year end home prices peaked in 2022. The median topped out in April 2022 while the average topped out in May. Since mid-2022 we have watched a steady decline in prices. The median sales price in April 2022 was $470,000 compared to $399,000 in December 2023. The average sales price in May 2022 was $658,886 compared to $539,765. Of course, some of that is seasonal.

Since the seasonal peak in 2022 we have seen a median price decline of $71,000 and an average decline of $119,121. Many sellers did not realize prices were declining, but News Press readers did because we report it each month.

Today we believe most homeowners realize prices have declined as inventory has risen. Selling a home today requires marketing muscle and experience in selling in a shifting market. Many agents are getting out of the business. Nationally 48% of agents did not do a deal in the 2nd half of 2022.

Locally, 85% of the agents have not been in the business for more than 6 years. This means most have never worked through a shift like we are seeing today, and they don’t know what to do. It is incumbent on agents with less than 10 years’ experience either join a team or join a brokerage with tremendous training.

Lead Flow

Most agents complain they do not have lead flow currently. Not only are buyers harder to close, they are fewer and farther between. Sure, there are many interested lookers, but many lack motivation to act with prices high and interest rates higher. With the total cost of ownership at high levels, buyers have been on the sidelines.

To be successful in real estate requires tremendous sales skills, and lead flow. Lead flow is expensive, and many newer agents do not have the budget to acquire leads. Because leads are converting at less rate due to less motivation, conversion becomes more critical.


Where do agents learn how to convert? They can learn from mentors like us who have been in business through many cycles and shifts. Additionally, some brokerages focus on training, while others cater to more experienced agents. If you are an agent struggling to hold on, Give Sande or Brett a call at 239-489-4042 and we will be glad to offer some resources for you.


If you have a home to sell, or previously tried to sell it and it expired, give us a call. 239-310-6500 Perhaps it failed to sell because of pricing. Maybe the price was fine and it wasn’t marketed heavily. Perhaps your Realtor had a side job and couldn’t devote 100% of their time to selling your home. Whatever the reason, we can take a fresh look at it and make some recommendations. Brett and Sande have sold over 5,000 homes in Lee County over the years. We’ve worked in the best of times and excelled in tough times when agents were getting out. The reason is, we never stop marketing, and nobody outworks us.

Call us to put our marketing muscles, know how, and hard work to work for you. You’ll wonder why you didn’t call us the first time. But that’s OK, we enjoy making a difference for people, even if you found us second.

Good luck. We’ll be watching 2024 like a hawk and reporting trends as they occur.

Happy Selling!

Pricing a home correctly is key to getting a home sold for top dollar. Time on the market is not your friend when selling your home. Our benchmark pricing analysis report helps clarify if a home is correctly priced by illustrating several key factors. We will focus on a few of those factors now.

Showing Activity

Benchmark Pricing Analysis Report

The Benchmark pricing analysis report shows the number of scheduled showings on subject property compared to other similar listings in the area. The report compares active and pending listings as well as closed listings. If the subject property is receiving a comparable number of showings, the price must be in the ballpark, or it wouldn’t receive showings.  If the home is receiving more showings than similar listings, all the better. The marketing is working.

Days on Market

Larger number of showings than pending or closed sales could lead to increased days on market. This tells us that while the home is in the ballpark, it is losing out to other listings when buyers decide to offer. A small price reduction could be warranted. The home just doesn’t measure up in value to competing listings. It is getting shown, which means it’s getting its opportunity. The home just isn’t the winner. Placing a home on the market is like entering a beauty contest. You must price it to be the winner. It is tiring to take home 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th place all the time. Eventually you need a win. Making a price adjustment can get your home on the winner’s stand.

Price Reductions

Benchmark Pricing Analysis Report Price Reductions

Another factor the report shows is the price reductions. The report not only shows how many comparable listings have had price reductions, but it also shows you the size of the reductions. Together with your agent you are deciding at what price to bring your home to the market for. That decision will either be spot on or off a bit. The seller determines the list price while the buyers determine the value. If the seller has miscalculated, a price reduction may be in order.

Chasing the Market

The sooner a seller realizes a price adjustment is in order, quick action can save the seller thousands. You never want to get caught chasing the market down. Adjust before the other sellers and get out. A lingering home on the market does the seller no favors. We have studies that show time on the market is detrimental to a seller’s net proceeds we can share with you when we meet.

The Ellis Team sends these reports out to our sellers on a regular basis. Our sellers always have the latest statistical data so they can make the most informed decisions. Setting a price and placing your head in the sand isn’t going to sell a home today, especially when so many sellers are making price adjustments as well.

Buyer or Seller Market

In a buyer’s market, home sellers are in competition with each other trying to find able buyers as there are more sellers than willing buyers. In a seller’s market, home buyers are in competition with each other over the best listings.

Winning Formula

The winning formula in today’s market is aggressive marketing, proper pricing, and communication. The Ellis Team has a system to communicate with our sellers. Nobody markets a home like the Ellis Team. Together as a team we help you price your home for success. Then we market it and communicate with you. If we are generating showings but no offers, together we’ll tackle the market and guide you through to the finish line. There is a reason the Ellis Team has helped over 5,000 families sell their homes. Sande and Brett have been through market shifts, and we never stop marketing and communicating.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty to get your home sold fast, and for Top Dollar, 239-310-6500 You plus us makes a winning team! Search the MLS at LeeCountyOnline.com

The Ellis Team analyzes market activity showing reports to determine buyer sentiment. This market report is for all listings using this service, not just our listings.

Market Activity Showing Reports

Realtors, have you ever had a listing that wasn’t receiving many showings? Did you wonder if market activity had suddenly slowed down, or whether it was just your listing? Realtors have the ability to track other listings showing activity and see how it relates to your listing.

If your listing isn’t receiving any showings but other listings are, perhaps it is the price. When a listing is overpriced, the market rejects it and showings fall off. It could also be the photos, the language in the MLS, or the data that was entered. We’ve uncovered so many unchecked or unspecified fields in MLS that would prohibit other Realtors from searching for a property and returning a match. When showing activity is down, you do not want to miss any.

Market Activity Showing Reports

The market activity showing reports allows us to search by city, zip code, neighborhood, bedrooms, price range, and more. For instance, let’s say I have a 5-bedroom home listed and it’s getting 1 showing per week. I might want to know if that’s good or normal. It stands to reason the 5-bedroom homes might receive less showings than 3-bedroom homes, so lumping all the data together doesn’t draw a true comparison.

Pending Sales

Pending sales picked up in the last week. As we head into mid-January you would expect that they would. Pending sales are a barometer of potential future closings. This is why we track pending sales so strongly. What if there was a barometer for pending sales? We think there is. Obviously, you do not have pending sales without showings. Showings lead to pendings.

Pricing Benchmark Reports

The Ellis Team also has access to pricing benchmark reports. Perhaps we’ll do a future article on this. A pricing benchmark report compares the showings of our listings versus the competition. It also calculates the absorption rate to determine how long a property should take to sell versus the availability in the market. Additionally, our report shows your listing relative to your competition, so you can see if your home is priced correctly. The report will also give us price reduction data, so we know what other homeowners are doing and what percentage they are dropping their price.

Rear View Mirror

When you bring a home to market a Realtor typically looks at past sales. However, using past sales is like looking in the rear-view mirror. It tells you where the market has been, but it doesn’t always tell you where the market is going. The pricing benchmark reports and careful study of the showing patterns of competing listings, combined with up to the moment market data puts our sellers in a position to make better decisions.

When the market is on the move, you want to know about it before other sellers. Sellers whose home expired and failed to sell are astounded when they see the data. The reason most sellers overprice their home is because they lack data. The Realtor may be short on listings, so they don’t want to risk telling the seller what they need to hear in fear of losing the listing. When a seller shops for a Realtor, be careful not to select the Realtor who offers the highest price.

Highest Price

The Realtor doesn’t really offer anything. The buyer offers. If your price is too high, all you did was give your listing to a Realtor. Select the best Realtor based upon their track record, knowledge and experience. If you select the best Realtor, you’ll get the price right. And if the price isn’t right, the best Realtor will guide you on how to adjust. You want to sell your home for the most money. Partner with a great Realtor so your home doesn’t sit on the market and collect dust while your neighbors sell their home. Studies show, the longer your home sits on the market, the less price you will get in the end.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant online price.

We thought you’d like to see the 2024 housing inventory supply numbers as we start off the new year. Everybody asks, are we in a buyer’s or seller’s market. This data gives us our answer.

2024 Housing Inventory Supply

Buyers Market?

A seller’s market is anything less than 5.5 months and a buyer’s market is anything over 5.5 months. Currently the Lee County single family 2024 housing inventory supply stands at 5.05 months supply, which keeps us in a seller’s market.

It might feel like a buyer’s market only because of the change we’ve seen in 2023. Back in October we reported a 4.19-month supply, and in July 2023 it was 3.81. In February 2023 it was 2.81. As you can see, the market moved steadily towards a balanced market in 2023 where neither the buyer nor seller had the upper hand.

A few points to remember. I pulled this data January 2nd. Typically, I wait 10-15 days for all the end of the month sales to come in. By MLS rules they are supposed to be entered within a few days, but I allow for more time. Secondly, there were 282 expired single family home listings in Lee County from Dec 31-Jan 2nd. Many of these homes will be relisted and added to the inventory totals, which will tilt closer to the balanced market or seller’s market should that occur.

Buyer Activity Increase

We have seen an uptick in showing activity the week after Christmas. This often happens, but it did not last year, for obvious reasons. The fact that mortgage rates have declined, and people are visiting SW Florida again, causes us to be optimistic. We expect interest rates to decline slightly in 2024 and more into 2025.

An uptick in pending sales may offset the expired listings that may re-enter the market in the coming days. Currently we are tracking about 902 closed sales in December compared to 955 in 2022. As we mentioned, all sales may not be entered yet. Either way, we are expecting a decline in year over year sales in December which was par for the course in 2023. We’ve been tracking 2018 closed sales levels closely since May, and in 2018 we closed 901 single family home sales. We feel pretty confident in these preliminary numbers.

December Sales Numbers

Preliminary sales numbers suggest a December median sales price of $400,000 which would be down from December 2022. All signs point to declining home sales and declining home prices for December 2023.

Just because home prices might be down in December doesn’t mean they will stay there. In 2023 interest rates were rising. Recently rates began declining, which could stabilize the market, or infuse fuel to the market in 2024. We do not expect large interest rate swings in 2024. What we do not know is how many sellers will decide to sell in 2024. We saw a steady rise in sellers in 2023, and we anticipate a rise in buyers in 2024. The answer to both ends of that equation will answer for us where this market goes.

In the coming month or so we will finalize where our market ended in 2023, and that is important to track. What it does not tell us is where the market will go in 2024. We believe this will become apparent in the next 8-10 weeks. As always, the Ellis Team will keep you updated.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking about selling, give us a call today. 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande Ellis would love to talk to you about the market, your neighborhood, and what options you have. The most common questions we get are what could we sell the house for now in its present condition and what could we get if we made some improvements? The other is when is the best time to sell? We can help answer those questions.

If you’re just curious about your home’s value, you can get an instant online value now at www.SWFLhomevalues.com.

Happy New Year! Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty with your real estate questions. 239-489-4042

See last week’s article “Property Best Buy List

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

8815 Oakshade Cir    $325,000

Ellis Team Open House January 6th
Open House Saturday 12-3 PM Whiskey Creek

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

4431 Bay Beach Ln Unit 544     $525,000

Fort Myers Beach Ellis Team Open House
Open House Fort Myers Beach Saturday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr    $400,000

Reflection Lakes Ellis Team Open House
Reflection Lakes Open House Sunday 12-3 PM



Welcome to the Ellis Team property best buy list for SW Florida real estate. The Ellis Team has been a leader in SW Florida real estate sales for over 35 years and knows a good deal when they see one. We’ve sold over 5,000 homes locally in SW Florida.

Property Best Buy List


Property Best Buy List Qualifications

 It wouldn’t be a property best buy list if any property could make the list. To qualify to be on the Ellis Team property best buy list a property must be deemed a best buy by one of our associates.  Several criteria are used to earn this designation. We look for outstanding value and features. A home may be the least expensive home in a neighborhood but doesn’t necessarily have to be. A home could offer an unbelievable number of features compared to nearby homes or be located on a lot that cannot be duplicated and therefore exemplifies value by its unique nature and price.

Best buy properties would be properties that either our team has showed or previewed for specific clients or properties that score well on paper. This does not mean that our team has inspected the property or warrants the value in any way. There could be many factors including condition, title, permitting, etc. that we wouldn’t be aware of unless a buyer completed the home investigation process. On paper, or at first glance, we’ve identified properties that appear to be of great value and warrant further investigation.

Who Gets the Best Buy Property List?

Nobody gets the entire list. This list is developed internally by Ellis Team members and is meant to assist buyers utilizing our services. We listen to a buyer’s needs and select homes from MLS and our internal list that meets those needs. There wouldn’t be a reason to give access to the entire list because it would not meet every buyer’s needs and would have properties in all price ranges.

What Types of Property Makes the Best Buy Property List?

We have vacant land, single family homes, condos, and residential income properties that qualify to make the list. If we have absences in a category, it simply means we haven’t identified a best buy for that category today. It’s possible we just took some off the list because they recently closed or went pending. New properties could enter the market tomorrow, or an existing property could make a significant price reduction that it now qualifies to go on our list.

When a property is overpriced, it is invisible to buyers most likely to buy that property. When a price reduction occurs, the property becomes visible to more buyers, and in some cases, could be deemed a best buy.

If your home is on the market with another Realtor, don’t call us to see if your home is on the list. Your home may be a best buy, but the list is for Ellis Team clients, and we will not share if your home made the list or not.

What the List Is Not

Our list is not comprehensive. We have not been to every property, and we have not studied every property in SW Florida. We are constantly scanning for new opportunities.  Our list are properties that meet our criteria and properties we have shown or noticed through searches. We may compare these properties to similar nearby properties and/or utilize computerized valuation models. Either way, our internal list is a model that suggests a property might be worth checking out.


If you’re interested in purchasing a home for a good value, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com. You can register and one of our buyer specialists can listen to your wants and help you find a best buy.  Or you can search on your own for Free.


You can go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com and get your home’s online value for Free. We have additional valuation models for your home as well that we can email you. All you have to do is ask.

The Ellis Team is active in the market and shows or views homes practically every day. We know the market, and if you’re looking for a Best Buy, we can help you learn the market too.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!

Have you heard about these buy now refinance free later offers lenders are offering?  Do they make sense? Let’s explore what these are and if they make sense for you.

Buy Now Refinance Free Later

Is the refinance later part really free? It depends on how you look at it. If by free you mean no cost to the borrower and the rate and payment goes down, then yes, it is free. Could the borrower receive an even lower rate if they paid their fees, the answer is yes. So, in a sense, it did cost the borrower versus the rate they could have gotten.

Buy Now Refinance Free Later

Let’s break it down. There are closing costs associated with financing or refinancing a home. There is a possible appraisal, title insurance, doc stamps on the note, and intangible tax on the note. These fees must be paid somehow. The lender can pay them for you, but they typically roll them into the mortgage rate, or what they call the spread.

This cost could equal as much as half percent to three quarter percent in the rate from the lender I asked. Let’s say you have a 7.5% mortgage on your current property. Rates go down to 6.5%. If the cost for a no closing cost refinance is half percent, you could refinance your current rate of 7.5% down to 7% and it wouldn’t cost you anything. You’d be wise to take that deal, wouldn’t you?  And if rates went down to 6%, you could do it again and receive a new refinance of 6.5%, and it wouldn’t cost you anything.

You could keep doing this every time rates went down. Perhaps this is why refinance applications are up 7.6% this week over last week. Homeowners are refinancing their existing rates and saving money. For anyone that purchased in the last year or so, this could be an excellent strategy to save money.

Pro Tip Strategy

When rates begin dropping it will create more buyer demand. Right now, buyers have excellent choices in housing, and sellers are more willing to deal or pay concessions this year than last. Once buyers flood back into the market, sellers will be less accommodating.

Wouldn’t it make more sense buying a home today with excellent inventory options rather than fighting more buyers down the road for the best properties? Once you’ve secured your home, you’ve locked in your housing costs. The landlord cannot raise your rent and housing prices won’t go up for you because you’ve already purchased. If the rate goes down, you can refinance it at no cost to you. If rates go up, you’re locked in.

How to Finance

Should you take the offers I’ve heard on the radio that say buy today and we’ll refinance you for free down the road? The lender is either putting building costs into your rate now, in which case you’d be paying a higher rate today, or they’ll add it later.  I would not select the added cost now if I were purchasing. Personally, I would wait and just deal with it later. What if rates don’t go down enough, soon enough? You paid extra money upfront for something you may not use. The costs are the same, so why not pay it when you use it? And, as we discussed, are you really paying it if you receive a benefit later and it costs you nothing to lower your payment?

Always Call the Ellis Team

We have lenders we work with that can help you make the best decision. If you want, we can offer advice too. We are not loan officers, but when we hear your story, we can help guide you to the lenders that have good choices for you.

Why Wait?

Financially, we don’t see a reason to wait for rates to come down. While you wait for rates to move lower you face increased competition from other buyers.  We have a limited window to take advantage before other buyers figure this out. Give us a call at 239-489-4042 and get a jump on the competition, and lock in your housing costs. Once we do that, things can only get better. You won’t be at the mercy of your landlord, interest rates, or other buyers bidding against you.

Search the MLS like a pro.

The Ellis Team has Two Locations to Serve you. Call us first so we can make sure we have someone to help you.

Fort Myers

12840 University Dr


Cape Coral

3208 Chiquita Blvd S



The Ellis Team Current Market Index predicts future real estate pricing accurately by analyzing key data that influences the direction of the market. Back in 2003 we were able to predict the market would take off, and it did.

2005 Warning

In October 2005 we warned people the market was about to turn. I remember doing a lengthy article on NBC where we tell people the end of the bull market is near. We all know what happened after that.We will work to find that story and upload to our YouTube Channel.

Agents told us back then we were crazy. This was a runaway bull market, and it couldn’t be stopped. People were flipping houses and making $100,000+ per house. They couldn’t, nor did they want to see the data that was driving the market. Back then we advised Ellis Team clients to stop buying, even though it cost us commissions. We could see what was about to happen because of our index.

CMI Predicted Bottom in 2009

We knew the market was on its way to stabilization in 2008. In 2009 we called the statistical bottom of the market, even when prices were about 30% of what they were a few years ago. View the CMI Index back in 2009. Again, in 2009 people thought we were crazy calling the bottom of the market. We wrote several articles back in 2009 and went on WINK TV telling everyone the bottom was here, but people didn’t believe that either. People tend to follow the crowd and believe where the market has been rather than where it is going.

Current Market Index Predicts Future
Current Market Index in 2009


The point is market outcomes have more to do with data than they do with emotions. Buyers today want the market to fall. Sellers want the market to rise. The market does not care what anybody wants, it rises and falls because of the data. The trick is learning which data to use and how to interpret it.

Ellis Team Current Market Index Predicts Future Real Estate Pricing

The Ellis Team current market index currently sits over 4.3. We no longer publish this index publicly as we keep it for paying customers of the Ellis Team. Southwest Florida real estate prices rose from the 90’s through 2005. 2006 is when we saw prices begin to fall. The Ellis Team Current Market Index (CMI) predicted that would happen around July of 2005 when the market was absolutely red-hot. The market peaked in January of 2006.

Current Market Index Predicts Future Real Estate Pricing
Real Estate Prices 2009

The CMI has been rising. We focus on the direction of the CMI as the actual number. When the index reaches 4+, either on the upswing or the downswing it begins to move prices. There is typically a 2–6-month lag between the index and the actual price movements, so knowing where the index stands, and the direction is critical ahead of time.

Back in 2006 the Ellis Team was able to advise seller clients to get aggressive with pricing before the market forced them to take even less. All our clients listened, and they were glad they did as they watched the market plunge. These decisions were based off data, not emotions or I think this might happen.

Later when home sales became tough, we went on TV again and showed a different way to sell homes when others weren’t able to sell.

The Ellis Team Current Market Index will go up and it will go down, as will prices. It was designed to help interpret the forward direction of pricing. You cannot read more into it than that, as we have to look at the actual number, the direction, and the pace. Back in 2006 the pace was significant. While the current number is rising, it is nowhere near the pace of 2006, so we are not calling for a plunge in values.

Consultants Vs Salespeople

The cool thing is this index will tell us the forward direction of real estate prices before they happen. If you have questions about your home and the Future of Real Estate, call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500. We’ll be glad to evaluate your situation and give you the information to make good decisions for your family. We consult with you after listening to your needs.

Good luck and Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty!


Latest released data shows SW Florida 12-month housing prices hold steady. The data was sort of a mixed bag.

Median sales price is down $25,000 from $425,000 down to $400,000 this October. However, average sales price was up $16,068. The median sales price is down 5.9% over last year while the average sales price is up 3.0%.

We like to look at year over year data because there is some seasonality to our local SWFL home prices. The larger luxury homes tend to sell in season or just after. Luxury buyers tend to visit in season and put in offers in the first half of the year more so than the second half. Don’t mistake that you cannot sell a higher priced home in the second half, it’s just that there are more buyers here in the first half.

Uptick in Buyer Activity

Last week we wrote about how interest rates influence home sales and provided historical data. We are happy to report that recent mortgage rate decreases have led to some buyers getting off the fence. Rates trended down for 3 straight weeks before leveling off, and buyers took advantage. Total pending sales increased by 37 this past week, which is a good sign.

1 weeks’ worth of data doesn’t identify a trend, but it is something we will be watching. It is slightly significant because it reverses a trend of declining total pending sales.

Home Prices Down From Peak

Median home prices are down $70,000 from their peak in April 2022 when they were at $470,000. Average home prices are down $111,210 from their peak in May 2022. Keep in mind, both those peak months are seasonal closing months, so they are usually higher than the averages.

12-Month Housing Prices Hold Steady

Selling Your Home Today

If you are selling your home today, you need up to the minute home statistics to make the best choices in marketing your home. One of the best indicators around is the Ellis Team Current Market Index. We no longer publish this publicly but it is available for Ellis Team clients. We can say that the Current Market Index has been rising since April 25th of 2023. This past week was the fourth week we’ve seen it take a pause in rising, only to begin rising again in subsequent weeks.

Current Market Index

We will be watching the Current Market Index to determine if and when a new trend begins, or if we have a continuation of the old trend. This is important because it tells us where housing prices will go. Like I said, if you are a seller, you would most definitely want to know what the future holds. If you knew prices were heading down, you’d want to get ahead of the market.

Back in 2006-2009 Ellis Team clients benefited because we were able to tell them what the market would do ahead of the market. Many thanked us for saving them thousands of dollars.


Ellis Team buyers benefit from this data too. It helps knowing what to offer. If you are a buyer, we suggest checking out www.LeeCountyOnline.com and searching the MLS like a pro. We have some advanced search features you won’t find anywhere else. Our team of buyer agents can help you setup your searches with advanced fields you won’t see. They can also assist you with neighborhood market reports and more.


If you have a property to sell, you can check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com It’s a great place to start and will give you a home value for Free, instantly. Of course, you can always call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 to talk about your home, your situation, and go over the latest statistics and see how they affect you moving forward. We’d love to talk to you, even if you aren’t ready yet to make a move. Preparation is key to making the best decisions.

12-Month Housing Prices Hold Steady

While median prices are down from the peak, they have held steady the past few months. Aerage prices increased slightly last month, so we are seeing 12-month housing prices hold steady for now. we’ll keep an eye out in future months to see if this holds true going forward.

Good luck and Happy Selling!