Fort Myers Beach Archives - Fort Myers Real Estate and Homes For Sale

The Ellis Team is projecting home closing activity in Lee County to be somewhere in the vicinity of 14,109 for 2024. You might ask, how did you pick that number? Was it a wild guess?

Without boring you with a complex mathematical computation, basically we compared year to date sales with previous years and extrapolated a percentage of where we are this year compared to previous years. We then looked at averages and compared economic climates for those years and did our best to make a prediction.

Projecting Home Closing Activity

There is absolutely no way our number will be correct. However, if it is even close, 2024 would be the 7^th best year on record, and the 4^th best year on the chart.

We hear agents saying how dead the market is, and nothing is selling. Statistically that’s not true. It may seem like nothing is selling if you have listings that are not selling. Through July more homes have closed in 2024 than 2023. I can already track through MLS about as many closings for August and we know not all sales are in yet.

Economy

We do know the economy is slowing down, and high interest rates are having their effect on buyers. However, we are expecting interest rates to begin declining starting this month. In fact, the mortgage markets already have begun their decline. Add in sellers buying rates down for buyers and there is light for home sales to remain steady.

Election

We have heard many buyers say they are waiting for the election. Somebody is going to get elected, and people are still going to need housing after the election. If you live in Washington DC, I could see why the election outcome might make a difference. For the rest of America, we either need housing or we don’t.

I could also see where some people could be concerned about their job going forward. Perhaps one candidate is more favorable to certain industries versus the other. Consumer confidence makes a difference, I get it.

It’s kind of like all those celebrities that promise to move to another country if so and so gets elected. They never do. I believe most people make a housing decision after the election about the same as they would have before the election. For some reason they just feel more in control. Buying a home is scary, and people like to feel in control. Even though we have the right to vote, that whole election thing feels out of control for most people, so they use it as an excuse to delay a decision.

Affordability

In the end, home sales and pricing come down to affordability. Affordability is determined by the price of the house, plus HOA fees, taxes, and insurance, financing costs, and anticipated maintenance. Home sales have slowed from better years because affordability has slipped. If real wages were to rise, inflation cools, or insurance costs abate, this would help affordability. Absent any of those, affordability must come from seller’s home prices, which is what we’ve seen the past few years.

Selling

If you’re selling in today’s market, who you hire matters. Marketing and experience matter. Always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 for the best advice in today’s market. Our marketing can work for you. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for your home’s instant home value. Our system will even track your home’s value each month and send you a comprehensive report on your area.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

1417 NE 10th Ln Cape Coral, FL

If you’ve been following our column, you’ll know that we’ve been writing about housing inventory levels falling since April. After more research we learned about rentals affecting housing resale inventory supply.

According to a leading rental agent, rent prices have been down 35% in the last three months. He mentioned there are 176 single family homes in Cape Coral alone that came on the rental market. Because he has conversations with his clients, I asked him what is driving the rush to rent their homes.

Rentals Affecting Housing Resale Inventory Supply

The rental agent said many have tried to sell their home and could not, or just do not like the resale prices today, so they’ve decided to rent instead. This caused a rush of rental homes to enter the market, and some are still asking for 3 month ago rental prices.

Like the resale market, rentals are price sensitive. Whether you are renting or selling, you must price your home according to market conditions. For those that choose the correct rental price, those homes are rented within four to six weeks. For those owners that overprice their rental, it’s taking three to four months to rent their home. Presumably it takes longer for the owner to realize they are overpriced, and they eventually reduce rent until it rents. Our conversation didn’t get that far, but why else would it rent for more down the road?

Rent Vs Sell

There are three reasons why a homeowner would rent versus selling. First, they emotionally want what their home used to be worth and decide to wait until the market recovers to that point. Secondly, they may owe more on the home and need to wait until market recovers to pay off the loan. Third, they may decide it’s a good investment and would like to keep it. Perhaps they have a low interest rate and can afford to keep it until rates fall again.

We may never see rates get below 3% again. If they do approach sub 4% it probably means the economy isn’t doing well and the Fed is trying to pump the economy. If this scenario occurs, home prices wouldn’t be doing well.

Economic Projections

We just sat through an economic projection of three possible scenarios. The first was no recession, the second scenario was a normal recession, and the last scenario was a banking recession. Let’s pray for no recession or or a mild one because the outlook for home prices and sales time isn’t pretty if we hit a normal recession or banking recession.

Buyers and sellers should prepare for rates to come down, but it will take awhile, and real estate will lag while they do. Recovery will be slow. If we enter a normal recession, home prices could be stalled or fall for 3+ years. And if we enter a banking recession, unemployment would rise dramatically and the economy could get ugly. We last saw this scenario in the Great Recession and savings and loan crisis.

The difference is today our country is in so much more debt than we were in 2006. Latest odds have the US entering a recession at about 70%. The definition of a recession is negative growth for two straight quarters, so we won’t know we’re in one until 6 months in.

Bottom Line

Real estate is moving, if it’s priced correctly. Those rentals will come back on the resale market one day, adding to inventory. For now, it might be a good time to sell while inventory is down. Of course, when all those rentals come back on the market, interest rates might be lower and maybe there will be more buyer demand to offset the increased supply.

We’ll keep watching the market for you. Always call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 with your real estate questions or visit www.swflhomevalues.com to get your home’s price.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Reduced home inventory supply is indeed good news for home sellers in Lee County. The overall monthly supply of homes on the market decreased from 5.67 months in June down to 5.39 months currently.

Price Ranges

Every single price range decreased except for the under $300,000 market. Even though closed sales are falling in some of the price ranges, they are being made up for in others. Perhaps the largest reason for the drop in housing supply is because sellers simply aren’t selling in the quantity they were back in June.

We have 302 less listings on the market right now. There was an increase in sold closings of 31 homes. This tells us that the drop in inventory levels has more to do with sellers taking their home off the market or less sellers deciding to bring their home to market. The decrease in home listings was not due to a drastic increase in closings.

Interest Rates

Interest rates are falling. It’s hard to get a feel for what they are officially because everyone quotes from a different base. For instance, Freddie Mac is reporting rates nationwide at 6.73%. This was last week’s rate to be fair. Other sources are quoting below 6% online, but there could be some points or closing fees involved to equalize the rate. Suffice it to say, rates have fallen, and they could fall more as the economy deteriorates.

Double Edged Sword

Sellers have been hoping for falling rates so more people can afford to pay a higher sales price on their home. The double-edged sword is that many are losing their jobs and businesses are cutting back, so there may be less buyers in the buying pool. The buyers that do have jobs may afford more when rates fall, but there could be less buyers overall.

Some buyers and sellers are holding off until the election before deciding to make a move. Americans feel less certain about their futures right now and they are looking for a reason to be optimistic. We just came off big inflation numbers where American purchasing power diminished, and now jobs are on the line. Some people are not optimistic about moving forward until they bring back a sense of control in their life.

We’re not sure the election is going to give them that, but we understand it as we hear these every four years.

Industry Changes

Industry practice changes are in effect. We predict several months of chaos as buyers, sellers, and agents figure out how to work in the new environment. Some brokerages have already figured it out and are operating as though not much has changed. Other brokerages and agents are in a state of confusion and don’t know how to move forward.

We’ve been telling readers for a while; it pays to work with an agent who understands what is happening and how to succeed in this environment. Our clients’ successes are literally in the hands of agents who are experienced and well trained to work in this environment. You must know the new practices inside and out to be able to explain it to clients. Buyers and sellers need this information to make good decisions, and unfortunately some are not getting good information or making the best decisions.

The good news is, even if a seller doesn’t understand the practice changes and makes a decision they later wish to change, they can. And you don’t have to switch agents or brokerages to make the change. Sit down with your agent and ask questions. If you’re unhappy with the results, make a change to the way they operate.

Interview

Buyers and sellers should interview agents now. Who you hire matters. The Ellis Team at Keller Williams is available to meet with you and discuss your options. You may or may not hire us, but at least you’ll understand better the options available to you and how they affect you. Take advantage of reduced home inventory supply levels while it lasts.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 2-4 PM

5407 Parker Dr Fort Myers FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2752 Geary St Matlacha, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

914 SW 12th Ter cape Coral, FL

Cape Coral Waterfront Pool Home — Waterfront Pool Home

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

26236 Colony Rd Bonita Springs, FL

Affordable home with Kinetico water system — Affordable Furnished Home

This is the week real estate industry changes went into effect. Today we’ll cover those changes once more as this will be a whole new process for Realtors, buyers, and sellers.

Real Estate Industry Changes

Locally, effective July 31, 2024, the MLS compensation field has been removed from MLS. Sellers may still offer compensation to buyers’ agents to sell their property, but the amount can no longer be listed in the MLS.

Buyer agents will need to call the listing agent directly to find out how much the seller is offering or view it on the listing brokers custom website. Offers may be placed on signs, newsletters, brochures, etc., just not in the MLS, or associated connected tools of the MLS.

Buyers

Buyers must sign an agreement with an agent to tour homes. This agreement shall cover such things as compensation the buyer will pay the buyer’s agent for services, among other things. This does not mean that the buyer agent cannot accept payment from the seller, because they can. Any fee recouped from the seller will offset how much the buyer will have to pay the buyer agent. In many cases, the seller will be paying the entire buyer’s agent fee.

Buyers will have choices. If a seller is not willing to pay all or part of the buyer’s agent fee on the buyer’s behalf, the buyer can ask the seller to pay it through the offer. Or the buyer might decide to skip that property and move on to more buyer friendly properties. In the end, the market will dictate which properties hold the most value to the buyer. How the offer is structured will be a point of negotiation.

Sellers

Sellers will make decisions at the time of listing how much they will compensate buyer’s agents. This offer will then be communicated to showing agents. Buyers will then make decisions about which properties they wish to see based upon the totality of their criteria. Buyer agent compensation may be a big thing to some buyers and almost negligible to others. If buyer agent compensation is not offered, buyers may offer less for the property, unless the property is deemed such a good value, and they don’t want to lose it to another buyer. Again, the market will decide the total value of the property based upon market conditions.

Work Around

Buyers could go directly to the listing agent. In this case, the buyer will not need to sign a buyer broker agreement to tour homes. A buyer may need to sign a representation agreement, depending on the brokerage, but this will not require a compensation agreement.

Listing agents will in many cases be paid their listing fee plus a fee to work with unrepresented buyers because the agent will spend more time showing the property, educating buyers, attending inspections, and working both sides of the contract. The primary benefit of this arrangement is the buyer won’t need to sign a compensation agreement.

Open Houses

Buyers will not need to sign a buyer agreement to visit an open house. However, if a buyer meets an agent at an open house and asks them to show the other properties, then they will need an agreement.

If you thought buyers and sellers were confused before, these next several months amp up the confusion. The end goal is to have a more educated buyer and seller upfront.

Interview Before You Hire

The agent you list with now matters more than ever. Trust and reputation between agents will be more critical as communication through MLS is taken away. The buyer’s agents will show homes that offer the best relationships and efficient communication. If a buyer’s agent calls a listing agent with compensation questions and the listing agent doesn’t return calls, this will be a problem and that property may be skipped. This will harm buyers and sellers.

Agents know which agents do the business and who they can work with. Experience matters now more than ever. The next 6 months could be chaos, so working with an agent who has the tools and experience to handle these real estate industry changes will be critical.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We’ll guide you through the process, no matter which side you are on.

Fun Real Estate Video

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers, FL 33913

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2752 Geary St Matlacha, FL 33993

Lee County Home Prices fell again in June, bringing the median home price to $400,000. Last year it was $430,000, so that was a 7% drop in the last year. In May median home prices were $415,000, so prices are continuing to drop.

Closed home sales fell 9% from last year, and 18.62% from last month. New pending sales are down 10.5% from last year, so things are not looking up for the coming months. The deteriorating housing market is not surprising as the effects of rising interest rates have had their desired effects to slow things down. The deterioration is usually the worst just before interest rates start declining.

The Fed can lower rates once they see data that the economy has cooled off. The risk is they overshoot the slowdown and things continue to deteriorate after they begin easing rates. Because economic activity is a lagging indicator to rates, it is very difficult to time interest rate hikes and easing perfectly for a smooth landing.

Rate Cut?

Wall Street odds place a September rate cut at 96%. The Economist’s odds are in the 82% range. We believe rates will come down 25 basis points in September or November depending on the data that comes out in the coming months.

Mortgage activity picks up each time interest rates fall. We’ve already seen rates fall about a quarter percent in the last 3 weeks. If economic data becomes bleaker, the mortgage market may react before the Feds cut rates.

Uncertainty

America has about as much uncertainty as we have seen in a long time. Inflation rose at a record pace followed by record interest rate hikes. Too much money has been released into the markets due to government overspending and it has taken high rates a while to influence the labor market and economy. Housing has certainly been affected. Couple the drastic economic fluctuations with a polarized electorate, and assassination attempt of a former president, and the current ruling party forcing their candidate to withdraw from the race, and you’ve got a recipe for uncertainty.

With election season upon us, who knows when the silliness will abate. It’s silly season alright, but there are signs the real estate market could do better in the 4^th quarter.

Currently oil prices are declining. Once we have a winner and know the makeup of the White House and Congress, our country can begin moving forward. If we have lower interest rates later this year and things quiet down in the middle east, Ukraine, and Taiwan, we could be in for improving real estate conditions.

I know these are big ifs. However, we must admit we are living in uncertain times, and much is unknown. I watched a documentary the other day that showed how America was similar to 1968. I went back and looked at home prices from 1968-1970 and prices declined about $30,000 adjusted for inflation. I did not study any other economic conditions from 1968 so don’t take this analogy in American history as a predictor of what the real estate market will do.

I think we can all agree it will be nice to settle into certainty. Our home is our castle, and some certainty with our castle will feel more settling.

Like to Sell

If you have a home to sell, always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We cannot settle the country, but we can settle your situation. With over 37 years of experience, Brett and Sande are uniquely qualified to sell your home in this changing market. We look forward to speaking with you, no matter your situation. We’ve been through changing markets before and hiring a professional that understands marketing must change to meet the moment. Sande and Brett Ellis know how to market to the moment.

If you’re thinking of selling, or tried to sell and it didn’t work out, give us a call. We can help.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Big Changes Coming August 1

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

5407 Parker Dr Fort Myers, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

26236 Colony Rd Bonita Springs, FL

Fun Real Estate Marketing Videos

The practice of real estate is going to change in a big way as there are major real estate changes coming August 1.

In the old days, and by old, I mean last week, buyers would work with an agent, and they didn’t have to worry about how the agent was going to be paid. The seller paid for it. Going forward, the seller still may pay it, but what happens upfront is going to change.

Major Real Estate Changes

Going forward the buyer has two choices. The first is to sit down with an agent and hire them to work with for an agreed-upon amount of money. Once there is agreement, the buyer and agent can negotiate to get the seller to pay for it. In the absence of that, buyer will pay the amount owed, or the balance of the amount owed if seller is paying for part of it. Or the buyer can say don’t show me properties unless the seller is going to pay for it.

The other option is to not hire an agent and contact listing brokers directly. Listing brokers are not required to sign a buyer to a buyer agreement on one of their own listed properties. Some buyers will absolutely choose this method as they won’t want to be tied down with anyone.

This second option could get old fast if the buyer is not successful scoring a property. It takes a lot of time to research and call listing agents, attend showings, or attend open houses. Many of these buyers will not have all the required mortgage and insurance approvals needed to move forward on a moment’s notice when they do find a home they like.

The buyers will not necessarily save any money with this second option either because the listing agent will be taking time and doing both ends of the deal or hiring agents to help out. What it will do is relieve buyers from signing a buyer agreement with an agent they don’t know well or trust.

Research Before Signing

Sellers have been signing agreements for years. Before a seller signs an agreement with an agent to sell their home, typically they might research who has a track record of selling homes and interview them to make sure they were a good fit.

Buyers on the other hand worked with the first agent they met and liked. This was probably always a mistake because the first likeable agent might not be the best agent to negotiate your home purchase with. Our advice would be to interview buyer agents the same way a seller would interview listing agents. Ask them key questions about their experience and track record, and what you can expect when you work with them regarding availability, communication, and negotiations. Does your agent have access to key resources like inspectors, lenders, accountants, engineers, CPA’s, lawyers, etc.?

Information is Key

Now more than ever information will be key. Certain fields will be removed from the MLS. Established procedures will be eliminated or redefined. Choosing an agent or a strategy will be paramount in home buying and home selling success. I feel like the new mandatory rules remove transparency and make it harder for consumers to make informed decisions. Removing the fields from MLS will slow things down, but the professionals will rise to help you. Inexperienced agents and less than 100% committed agents will have a tough time, and so will their clients. major real estate changes like this require you to hire the best when buying and selling.

If you’re looking for an experienced team that can help you in the coming days, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com We’re here to help!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

5407 Parker Dr Fort Myers, FL

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr Fort Myers, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers, FL

Traditional sales dominate SW Florida real estate market, but that doesn’t stop buyers asking how they can buy foreclosures and short sales. Every week we get calls from buyers looking for off-market properties and distressed sales.

This tells us a few things. First, they’ve looked at everything available on MLS and have not found anything that meets their criteria. Secondly, these buyers have an expectation that our market is distressed, and they want a deal.

With one glance at the chart, you will see that foreclosures are practically nonexistent in the Lee County single family housing market. Less than .6% of our home sales were distressed in May. We had zero short sales and only 8 foreclosure sales in MLS.

There will always be a few distressed sales in almost any market. The 8 foreclosure sales are negligible statistically. I remember about 70% distressed sales back in 2008-2009. Our market is nothing like that time, for many reasons.

Speculators

Back in the 2005 market we had speculators purchasing properties as fast as they could and flipping to another speculator. There was never an end-user in sight, but that didn’t stop the speculating. I don’t call these people investors because they didn’t follow any of the typical investing strategies. These speculators operated on the “what a bigger fool will pay” theory until the music stopped. It worked for several years, until it didn’t. All they did was finance the overproduction of homes with cheap capital.

Fast forward to today. During the runup from 2020-2022 we had end users in every home. That was true for owners and renters. You could hardly find a home to move into no matter your financial wherewithal.

What hurt this market was the combination of things. Hurricane Ian did not help. Rising interest rates hurt the ability of homebuyers to afford homes at the current prices. Add to that the rising cost of homeowners and flood insurance, and we had a recipe for a strain on affordability. Lastly, some employers have been calling their people back to work at the office. This has led some that moved here because of Covid to move back.

Affordability Strain

Housing inventory is up 82.8% versus last year, but median home prices are only down 6.7%. There is no doubt housing affordability has put a strain on the real estate market, and most is the result of rising interest rates. As the economy slows down, rates may begin to drop. The official forecasts are rates should hold steady in 2024 and perhaps begin to drift lower. In 2025 rates should begin to drift lower. Forecasts range from about ½% to 2%.

Buyers may not want to wait for rates to fall a full 2% for two reasons. One, it may not happen. Secondly, all the other buyers will be jumping back in, and they will be competing with each other. Right now, the seller is on the defensive and wondering when this market is going to turn around. Once rates start declining, the buyer may not have the advantage over sellers like they do today.

MLS Search

The best website to search for properties is www.LeeCountyOnline.com Bookmark this site. Things are changing in the real estate industry, and when the changes hit in August, popular portals like Zillow and Realtor.com may not offer as many tools and properties listed as LeeCountyOnline.com does.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 with your real estate questions. We are here to answer your questions on the upcoming changes in August as well.

Good luck, and Happy Home Shopping!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

2752 Geary St, Matlacha FL

As Seen on TV Fox 4 Out and About South West Florida

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr, Fort Myers FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

26236 Colony Rd, Bonita Springs FL

The Ellis Team has been hard at work producing some fun real estate marketing videos people would like to watch. Sure, when you’re interested in a specific property you’re going to watch a video on that home, and maybe similar homes.

Many people enjoy market update videos as well, and we’ve got those. One thing we find is that people also want to be entertained. I know I’ve been stuck down the video rabbit-hole watching suggested videos for what seems like hours. The intrigue is you never know what you’re going to see next.

Fun Real Estate Marketing Videos

Our goal is to step up our video marketing game, and we’ve produced some fun videos we think you’ll enjoy. The first video this past week was a suspicious activity report we received in one of Fort Myers neighborhoods. We sent out a reporter to investigate, and I think they found out what the commotion was about.

Another video shows a charming waterfront home in Matlacha just minutes to big water and championship fishing.

The next video shows two Ellis Team agents previewing a new listing for an upcoming open house and what happens next is unbelievable. We won’t spoil the ending, so let’s just say everyone is surprised, even our two agents. They’d never seen or experienced anything like it, and you’ll get to see it for yourself.

Of course, we have some bloopers, but you’ll have to wait for those. We think this past week’s videos will be entertaining enough, and we can’t wait to bring you some bloopers soon enough.

Where to View

How can you view these videos? We have several ways.

YouTube www.youtube.com/TopAgent

Facebook www.facebook.com/ellisteam

Instagram ellis_team-fl

We don’t always post the same videos on each service, but this week we plan to. I used to think the best teachers were the ones that made class interesting. We feel the same way about video. Our team strives to make fun real estate marketing videos because we like to have fun, and it shows. We also love to inform.

If you’ve got questions, chances are we’ve got a video that may help. Of course, the videos are no substitute for speaking with Sande, Brett, or a member of our team. We enjoy dealing with people, and we know sometimes people want answers without having to speak to someone.

Between our real estate video, our online property valuation tool, our MLS property search www.LeeCountyOnline.com, and our Blog Blog.TopAgent.com where we have thousands of articles, we think you can find the answers you’re looking for. And if you’d like to speak with us, we’d be even happier.

When the time comes to buy or sell real estate in SW Florida, or anywhere in the country, we hope you’ll think of us. Simple call us at 239-310-6500 When you just want to search on your own for homes or advice, we’ve got you covered there too.

Big Changes Coming

We’ve got some big changes coming in the real estate industry. Many people don’t know that they will have to hire a real estate agent and enter into an agreement with an agent before seeing homes. These changes are coming in the next month, and they will not be optional. There are a few exceptions, and we plan to produce some videos explaining the new rules, the new forms that will be required, and the few exceptions. August 17^th is the absolute deadline, but some MLS changes will occur on August 1^st.

Knowledge and Experience will matter now more than ever before. Don’t settle for a real estate agent. Hire a real estate professional who knows how to work in the new environment. Some buyers and sellers are going to be very happy, and some will be frustrated. The agent you hire will make all the difference.

Good Luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers, FL 33913

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

5407 Parker Dr Fort Myers, FL 33919

May closed home sales rose 2.7% over last year’s numbers in May, showing that buyers are active in the market when affordability shows up.

Interest rates ticked down, which helped with affordability, and single-family median home prices were down 6.7% from last year as well. Both factors contributed to an uptick in closings and pending sales.

Pending single family home inventory is up 18% over May 2023, and internal data suggests inventory has capped in June even though official May numbers show inventory is still rising. Official numbers lag our internal data collection in real-time.

Condos

Lee County condos are another story. Closed sales are down 16.1% from last year, and inventory is up 122.9%. We currently have a 10-month supply of condos on the market. New pending condo sales are down 24.9%. The median sales price of a condo in Lee County was down 2.9% from last year. Some condos are easier to sell than others. Factors that affect salability include whether the master association has a flood policy, because this affects if lenders will lend. Other factors include the total cost of condo/HOA fees and insurance.

Forecasts

Forecasts continue from FNMA continue to show 2024 should be a better year than 2023 in closed sales. FNMA is predicting a 9.0% increase in the number of single-family home sales. This could be because inventory has been tight across North America, and they are expecting more to come on the market. However, this coincides with what we are seeing in SW Florida home sales.

Many people believe nothing is selling, and it only feels like that when you see homes sitting on the market longer. The reality is more homes are selling this year, so long as they are marketed correctly and priced properly. Buyers have less motivation than they did a few years ago, and higher prices, higher interest rates, and rising insurance costs caused this.

While home sales are rising, we can continue to see home prices fall more. 7.1 months’ supply of single-family homes means we are in a buyer’s market. Even though we are tracking declining inventory in June internally, inventory levels have only slightly decreased. Prices are a lagging indicator to inventory. Additionally, we’ve seen a 4-week reduction in inventory, but that’s not enough to call it a defined trend yet.

The Good news is inventory has stopped rising in June. Prices may continue to fall, but at some point, that will level out if we continue to close more units and inventory declines. We expect interest rates to fall slightly by end of the year, and again slightly in 2025. If we can get insurance under control and escape hurricane damage this year, 2025 may be brighter than 2024.

Prime Time

The 2^nd half of 2024 may be prime time for buyers. Prices have been coming down while there is an excellent selection of homes available. Sellers are willing to negotiate, and rates are coming down a little. Buyers may lose some leverage heading into 2025 and may look back on 2024 as the prime time to purchase. Originally, we thought the first 6 months of this year would be prime time for buyers, but the timeline got pushed back because of inflation. The Fed was not able to begin lowering rates due to pesky inflation. We hope future inflation readings will be kind so the Fed can act later this year. The absolute earliest they would change would be at the September meeting, and it could go until November, depending on the data.

Home Value Tool

We’ve got a new tool on our website www.LeeCountyOnline.com that provides an instant estimate of your home’s value. Additionally, it provides an equity analysis on your home, and allows you to ask questions about your neighborhood and the market. It’s a great way to explore home value options, even if you’re just curious about the market. Check it out.

And remember, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 with your real estate questions. Brett and Sande are here to listen and help you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Suspicious Activity in Fort Myers Neighborhood

Single family home listing inventory declines third straight week in SW Florida. Currently there are 6,417 active homes listed on MLS, which is down from 6,475 the week prior. This is a decline of 58 homes.

We decided to investigate what is causing the decline in inventory. Are more homes selling? Are sellers giving up and taking their home off the market? Did more homes suddenly go pending? These are all great questions, and here is what we found.

Listing Inventory Declines Third Straight Week

According to our MLS, 1,462 homes closed in May. We know the official number will be higher as Realtors from outside MLS’s could have posted some sales invisible to this MLS. In May of last year, we had 1,428 home closings, so we picked up 34 closed over the previous year. Total pending sales are down 28 from the previous week. This doesn’t exactly answer the question.

Next, we looked at new listings versus pendings and closings. New listings totaled 328. Solds totaled 260 for the week. Pendings totaled 325, so new listings outgained pendings by 3. There were 85 back on the market, and 79 withdrawn. The back on market could have been pendings that fell out but could also be people that had taken off market temporarily.

Bottom Line

The bottom line is we cannot tell why inventory has peaked and declined slightly. We know nationally when interest rates decline, we see an uptick in pendings. Locally that wasn’t the case as total pending sales dropped by 28. Interest rates have declined slightly after the jobs report showing some weakness in labor and inflation moderating ever so slightly.

The Fed has said we are nowhere near our target of 2% inflation, but at least it quit going up and we saw a .1% pullback this past month. If they can see continued moderation of inflation the hope is interest rates could go down by end of year or early 2025. We believe once rates start coming down it could accelerate a little because there is a cushion built in by lenders due to risk. Once the direction of rates become clear, they might release that cushion.

The good news is that listing inventory declines third straight week and may have topped out. Back in 2022 we spotted a trend where listing inventory began rising in February. It wasn’t long until June 7^th when listings began outpacing pendings, and we knew the days of rising prices were over.

Currently we have a gap of 4,452 homes between listings and pendings. We are nowhere close to saying price drops are over, but at least the trend seems positive.

We’ve seen a similar gap at many points in time going back to December of 2023. Fort his reason we cannot say the recent good news is sustainable or the start of a new trend. It is simply good news for 3 straight weeks, and we’ll take it.

Marketing and Price

Marketing and price are still the most critical components of a successful sale. The seller controls both right now. The seller determines who they feel is best able to market their property, and they control the price. The market determines the value, so when a home is marketed properly and the price equals the value set by the market, the property will sell. Failing at excellent marketing and improper pricing often results in a no-sale situation.

Always Call the Ellis Team

Sande and Brett 239-310-6500 can answer your questions on price, and our marketing is second to none. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free instant estimate based on local conditions. There is a reason Sande and Brett have been voted the Best in Real Estate 12+ years. We’d love to show you how our marketing and expertise can work for you. Who you hire matters! We’d love to earn your business.

Good Luck and Happy Selling!

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