The Ellis Team current market index predictions for the 1^st quarter of 2025 are in and we are seeing some mixed signals. Historically the current market index has been an accurate forecaster of future prices in the SW Florida Real Estate market.

Current Market Index Predictions

Because the index is a leading indicator, the resulting prices lag the index number. As you can see from the graph, the index number has been rising in the past few years. Accordingly, home prices have been falling for the same period. Sometimes it takes a few months for the resulting prices to move. The index trend is still upward, so we would expect home prices to come under pressure moving forward.

Seasonality

One exception to the model is seasonality. Traditionally our higher sales in SW Florida occur in or just after season. The underlying index numbers may point to lower future home prices, but they sometimes have to wait for the seasonal sales to complete. A drastic rise in the current market index can offset seasonality, but so far we’ve only seen a slight to moderate uptick in the index.

Going back decades, the index moves were more dramatic, and we saw prices fall dramatically when the index said they would.

In the past few weeks, we’ve written about the Inventory Sales Gap Metric along with the Supply-Demand chart and the Months Supply of Inventory graph. When we combine those data sets along with the Current Market Index Predictions, the picture becomes clear. We believe November median home sales prices in Lee County will be down about $12,000 from last year. Additionally, the number of closings may be down by about 90 sales as well. We won’t know for certain until official numbers are released later this month.

January

Two things typically happen in January. Showings begin to pick up after about January 15^th and stay steady for the season, and listing inventory increases too. Many SW Florida property owners place their property for sale in season, thinking that is the best time to sell. The truth is, higher priced buyers are here in season, but that only matters if the listing is priced correctly. Additionally, by waiting until January, more sellers are in competition with each because they all waited.

This past week the Ellis Team placed 6 properties under contract. Showing activity has definitely picked up in the last two weeks, but not on all properties. There may be less buyers here in December, but the buyers that are here tend to be serious. In January there may be more lookers, but it doesn’t mean they will all buy in January. Many are just beginning the buying process, and some take a few years to finally decide to make the move.

Winning Strategy

If your goal is to sell in 2025, you need two things. Hire the Best Realtor you can find, and price it properly. No matter how much your agent advertises your property, if the buyer doesn’t see the value, it will not sell. Not all agents market the same. Each will have their spiel about why their marketing is effective. If you are considering selling, it pays to interview the Ellis Team at Keller Williams 239-310-6500. Hiring the wrong Realtor can cost you thousands, and it could cost you the sale entirely. Talk to Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis and we can discuss your needs and what it will take to get your home sold in a changing market.

Knowing exactly what the market is doing combined with the best marketing and experience leads to better outcomes. Nobody studies the market like we do, and we’ve been voted Best in SW Florida 12+ years by News Press readers. That is not by accident.

We look forward to hearing from you. Or check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com for instant online home price valuation models.  Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Home prices remain flat as home sales dip. October median home price in Lee County was unchanged at $400,000, the same as last year. The average sales were down 3.2% to $530,281 in 2024, down from $547,676 last year. We prefer to use the median price as it’s less susceptible to high or low sales influencing the number.

Total single-family homes closed were down 13.6% in October. 2024 is tracking to be one of the lower sales volume years, and a sign of how unhealthy the economy is in 2024.

Interest Rates

Interest rates fell at the end of last week slightly, which would be a welcome sign if they continue. The talk of government cutting spending is welcome news to the bond market. It’s almost as if the bond market wants to believe the government can cut spending, but given their track record the markets are hedging their bets.

Additionally, inflation is still too high, but new data will be coming out in the next few weeks. PCE is due out November 27^th, but this article is written on November 25^th ahead of that report. If PCE comes in at .2% or less look for interest rates to lower. If it comes in higher, we might have to wait for rates to come down further.

Inventory

SW Florida inventory is rising. Pending sales have been slow, although slightly better in the last week. New listings are outpacing new pending sales by a wide margin, which leads to increased inventory. High inventory is one reason home prices remain flat. With the election behind us we hope that buyers will begin to focus on their real estate goals heading into 2025.

Lower interest rates may help get some buyers off the fence if they occur. Season is near, and already winter is hitting northern states with a fury. Early winters usually spur people’s interest in Florida.

Flood Insurance Update

In case you missed it, FEMA has decided to place Fort Myers Beach on probation. This means they lose their 25% discount. Essentially flood insurance just increased 25% on the beach. Probation also means they could lose the flood insurance program altogether if they don’t make more changes. This probation could last up to 2 years before rate discounts would apply, if they qualify.

How will flood insurance rates affect property sales on Fort Myers Beach? We do not know. All we can say is it’s unfortunate as they have worked hard to maintain that discount. It may not be the end of the world, but it’s never good when costs increase that much so suddenly.

Best Search Site

Where can you go to find the best deals in SW Florida? www.LeeCountyOnlinie.com is the best place to search. Not only can you search all the homes, but you can save searches so that new properties matching your criteria will be emailed to you when they arrive. It’s like a store sending you Black Friday deals tailored just for you, all year long. Give it a try and let us know what you think.

Of course, you can always reach us at 239-489-4042. We have all the technology, but there’s no substitute for speaking with a live person that will listen to your needs and work with you to accomplish your goals. AI is nice, but we think in the end most people will want to work with a human they can trust. Our team looks forward to working with you.

After you’re done shopping all those Black Friday deals, check out what our SW Florida real estate market has to offer. There are some deals out there, and the best time to buy is when there is product on the shelves. The worst time to buy is when the shelves are bare. It’s a good time for buyers right now.

Good luck, and Happy Shopping! Let us know if we can help you.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

2513 SE 24th Ave Cape Coral FL 33904

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Denninghton Rd Fort Myers FL 33913

Inventory levels have been growing this Fall, so we decided to do an election day months’ supply of inventory report to see how it changes after the election.

Months’ supply of inventory grew across the board in all price ranges since our last update in September. Election day months’ supply of inventory stands at 5.9 months. Anything over 5.5 months supply is considered a buyer’s market.

The over $1 Million price range came in the highest at 9.74 months supply.  Not surprisingly the lowest price range on our chart, below $300k, came in a 3.12 months’ supply. In the last two months, the over $1 Million price range gained the most supply at .78 months, followed by the $300-$400k range at .67months.

The inventory supply has been hit at both ends of the spectrum. Pending sales have been declining while inventory is growing. In other words, more homes are coming on the market than leaving the market.

Turn Around

What’s it going to take to turn this market around? It’s not going to happen overnight as the Ellis Team Current Market Index stands at 5.27. This is the highest number it’s been in a long time and tells us the local real estate market is headed in the wrong direction. Our current market index has been an accurate predictor of future home prices, but it can turn around.

Lower interest rates would help. Interest rates have been marching higher all Fall due to inflation concerns. Inflation and government spending just isn’t what the markets hoped it would be by now.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumers are maxing out credit cards, so many fear the consumer spending fueling the economy may run out of steam. A little bit of good news, whether it’s the economy, interest rates, or reductions in inflation could give consumers some hope. How people feel about their future finances goes a long way towards big spending decisions, like housing.

Election Day

We are writing this article on election day, so we have no idea how the election will turn out. Hopefully we’ll know within a day or so. The sooner everyone knows the outcome, the quicker people can move on with their lives. Even if their candidate didn’t win, at least the outcome is known. Sometimes just mentally knowing an outcome can help people move past whatever is holding themselves back. I feel like people have been holding back from big decisions pending the election.

No matter who wins, we won’t expect things to turn around on a dime. The next president won’t take office until next January, and it takes time for plans to be put into place. It could be a year or more before changes take full effect. The mindset change may take effect immediately, but the policy effects may not be known, especially if we have a divided government.

Tracking

We knew the SW Florida real estate market began changing Feb 15, 2022. We definitively knew June 14^th,  2022, that the market would turn when the supply-demand line crossed over. It was at that point price increases were over. The Ellis Team Current Market Index confirmed price increases were over. It was just a matter of time until it showed up in the statistics.

Going forward we will be tracking the supply-demand graph, the month’s supply of inventory graph, and the Ellis Team Current Market Index. These three indicators should tell us if this market will indeed change again.

The market will change again. The question is always, when, which directions, and at what speed? We look forward to reporting on how our local real estate market responds after the election.

Track your home’s value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Every month our system will send you your home’s new value, along with changes in conditions for your area. You probably watch your stock portfolio on a regular basis, so why not track your home value too? We have the tool for that.

Good luck, and Happy House Selling!

Why are interest rates rising despite Fed rate cuts? Everybody thought when the Fed cut interest rate it would translate to lower mortgage costs. We’ll explain why it’s not happening, and we’ve been warning you for months about this.

30-year mortgage interest rates are more closely tied to the 10-year treasury note than anything else. The 10-year treasury note is forward of the Federal Reserve, meaning the note reacts faster than the Fed. The markets are telling us rates should not come down yet.

Interest Rates Rising Despite Fed Rate Cuts

The bond market does not like two things, and the government controls both. The first is deficit spending. The markets are telling us we cannot continue to spend like this. The bids coming in from the auctions are at higher rates because with more deficit spending there is more risk of nonpayment in the future. Additionally, there is no plan to balance the budget, let alone pay off the $35 trillion dollar debt today. This year alone we are racking up $2 trillion dollar debt. The US government will not be able to pay its debts in the future if nothing changes. It does not matter what rate the Fed states, the markets have to purchase the debt. The markets are speaking.

The second thing the markets do not like is inflation. Inflation occurs when there is too much money chasing too few goods and services. This is exactly what the government created by spending trillions of dollars. Real wages are declining, which means the pay raises people experienced couldn’t keep up with the higher inflation costs. People lose money on the deal.

Higher Borrowing Costs

If inflation isn’t bad enough, consumers are also hit with higher borrowing costs. Not only does that new home cost more to build, it also costs more to finance. It’s a double whammy, and our government did this to us.

We the people are just as guilty because who doesn’t like free money flowing into the economy? The only problem is, there is a price to pay down the road, and we are paying the price today. Politicians are afraid to tell us the truth or we’ll vote them out of office.

The government does not create jobs or wealth. The government simply borrows on our behalf, because they can and adds it to our tab. Then one day the financial markets speak up and say we need to see a plan, or we’re not going to keep loaning you money. At least not at today’s rates.

Related Data

I will post some related articles on our Blog that explain further how the markets view our debt, and why rates are rising. They’re too long to post here. Our Blog is located at https://blog.topagent.com It’s a great resource filled with every article we’ve written for the paper for the last 19 years. It’s interesting to go back to certain dates in time and see what the real estate news of the day was. People often ask me how the market was when they bought. This Blog has your answers, sorted by date.

10-, 30-year Treasury yields end at highest since July as deficit worries grow

Worries about deficit spending after election bog down U.S. government debt

Bond-market selloff leaves 10-, 30-year yields at almost 3-month closing highs

Buying or Selling

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. You can search the MLS like a pro at www.LeeCountyOnline.com or find your home value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com

Brett and Sande have been voted Best in Real Estate for 12+ years by News Press readers. Put our knowledge and experience to work for you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

October SW Florida Real Estate Market Update