We wondered what was in the one big beautiful bill and if it would be good for real estate. The house just passed the bill, and it is subject to change when the senate gets done with it. Real estate has been tough in SW Florida, so let’s see what in this bill would help our market. This is not an endorsement or condemnation of this bill. We simply want to know what’s in it and how it affects real estate.

Key Provisions of One Big Beautiful Bill

Individual tax rates remain the same. Failure to pass a bill would mean consumers would see the largest tax hike in history, eroding purchasing power from millions of buyers. For real estate values, this item is essential.
Mortgage Interest Deduction is made permanent at current levels, maintaining stability for the housing market.
1031 Exchanges were maintained which encourages investment and ownership of real estate. Eliminating that provision may have taken away many future buyers.
SALT deduction was increased to $40,000. This is the state and local tax deduction owners can deduct from federal taxes. This provision was highly controversial, but it did make it in the bill.
Immediate expensing for certain industrial structures. This provision encourages companies to build in America, thereby raising jobs and wages in the US. Rising wages helps make housing more affordable.
Estate and gift tax threshold was made permanent at $15 million which will allow families to pass down generational wealth without the government taking it.
Child tax credit was raised to $2,500 today and goes up in 2029 which will help families with children afford more home.
Low income housing tax credits are included which will promote development for more affordable housing.
Taxes on social security benefits are slashed which will help seniors keep more of what they earn. In turn, seniors will have more money in their pocket and less going to the government.
Taxes on tips and overtime are eliminated from federal tax which will put more money in many people’s pockets. More money means consumers can afford more to offset the costs of housing. This provision helps many of the people who need help with housing the most.
Standard deduction is expanded, making it simpler for people to file taxes while reducing taxable income for small business owners

Pros and Cons of the One Big Beautiful Bill

There is a lot to like for housing in this bill. Opponents argue that it will raise the debt, which could lead to higher interest rates down the road. Proponents argue the CBO fails to use dynamic scoring. The last time the government lowered taxes and brought jobs back to the US, revenue to the government increased. Static budget models don’t fully account for growth. If the US does achieve 3% or better growth, we may not see a deficit at all.

Of course, this is politics we’re talking about here. This would mean if more money comes in to the treasury, Congress shouldn’t find a way to spend more. For the US to get back on track, we need to grow revenue and cut expenses. This bill may do that, but some say it doesn’t cut expenses enough.

It will probably be July 4^th through the 31st before we know what the final bill will be, and we can evaluate at that time what it looks like. For now, there is a lot to love, and a few things of concern. We’ll be watching to see how this unfolds, and how the provisions will affect real estate.

Real Estate Help

You can search all homes in the MLS at www.LeeCountyonline.com or call us at 239-489-4042 and our team will help you answer questions.

Our listings have been selling, and we need more! If you are thinking of selling, or tried before without success, call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We’re having great success, and perhaps we can help you make your move too. So many sellers wished they would have called us first.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

We are seeing more real estate buyers taking advantage of the opportunity in SW Florida in 2025. Last year the first half of 2024 was strong, and the second half fell off. Home sales this year are behind the first half of 2024, but they are accelerating. The thinking is the second half of 2025 may be stronger than the second half of 2024.

Real Estate Buyers Taking Advantage

Preliminary April home sales data suggest home prices fell 8.24% year over year. We are writing this article on Tuesday and official numbers will be released on Thursday. Additionally, we are reporting 1,417 single family home sales in Lee County. Last year’s official number was 1,431, so we’ve almost caught up to last year’s number, and we know a few more sales will be added to our unofficial numbers.

Many people might ask, how can you say the market is improving statistically when prices are down? All market metrics do not move at once. First sales need to increase, and inventory levels need to come down. We are seeing sales increasing each month. Some of that is seasonal, and we will be watching the coming months for supporting data.

We are seeing listing inventory declining. Some of that is increased sales, increased pending sales, and perhaps some sellers giving up and taking their home off the market.

Sellers finally lowering prices have real estate buyers taking advantage because affordability has increased. Throw in a rate cut later in the year and sales could increase in the second half of the year versus last year.

Price Direction

Home prices can go down even in an improving market. We still have a lot of inventory to move; plus, the shadow inventory we talked about last week. Also, there are different degrees of improving. Markets can improve gradually or all at once. Most people remember the sharp market shifts, either up or down, so they are unaware of the gradual shifts unless they study the numbers. In fact, it’s easy for Realtors in the business to misjudge the market unless they study the numbers regularly.

Your Home Value Estimate

Check out your home value estimate online for free at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Our site will track your home’s estimate over time and give you a new figure each month. This way you can stay on top of the real estate market and track your value. While some online valuation models do a fairly good job of estimating value, no computer estimate should be taken as 100% accurate. We like to look at the price direction as much as the actual value it states. The Ellis Team is here to validate your price if you’re considering selling, so you know you’re getting Top Dollar when you decide to sell. Call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500.

Price Reductions

The average price reduction was 3.56% last week. If your home is on the market and not getting offers, reducing it $1,000 won’t cut it. It’s always nice to know what other typical sellers are doing in this market to compete. You don’t want to drop too much, but staying at the wrong price too long can cost you. We can help with this too. We have the data.

Ellis Team listings are selling. Aggressive marketing and proper pricing and data are the key. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty before you make a real estate decision.

See Last Week’s Article “Housing Market Improving Locally in SW Florida”

New Study About Home Sales

Statistically we see the housing market improving locally in SW Florida. Pending sales increased in season and local inventory decreased. We’ve been telling buyers their maximum leverage with sellers may be right now.

Interest Rates

All signs point to lower mortgage rates next year. As rates and inventory begin to decline, buyers’ leverage with sellers begins to dwindle as well. The winning strategy for buyers right now is to lock in low prices and negotiating leverage while you can, and refinance later when rates do decline. In this way, you can lock in low prices and concessions while waiting for the interest rate market to improve. If buyers wait to purchase, they may get a lower rate, but they’ll lose out on seller concessions and lower prices.

Time the Market

You can’t time the market, because nobody knows the date of the absolute bottom. What you can do is lock in a lower price for the home, at an affordable rate that works, and wait. Once rates start dropping, inventory supply will begin to get swallowed up. Already we’ve seen inventory supply decline. On March 18^th we had 9,367 single family homes on the market in Lee County. Today we have 8,899. That is a 5% drop in inventory in less than 2 months. Rates have bounced around and largely stayed the same in these two months. Imagine what will happen when rates begin declining.

Shadow Sellers

What we don’t know is how many shadow sellers there might be. Decades ago, we called shadow inventory banks were holding on non-performing assets. Today, I’m referring to sellers who wanted to sell but pulled their home off the market and stayed or rented it out until prices rose again. We suspect there are many shadow sellers, but they will only enter the market when prices rise. They do not wish to sell at today’s prices, and buyers do not want to pay what those sellers were asking.

Housing Market Improving Locally

Today, buyers are in the driver’s seat. Next year they may not be. It’s possible we’ll have a driverless market for a year or two, with prices generally trending upward when inventory declines. We only see a driver’s seat market when the market is out of balance. Both buyers and sellers know what an out of balance market looks like. It’s fun to be a buyer in a buyer’s market, and it’s fun to be a seller in a seller’s market. The question I have is, why don’t all buyers buy in a buyers’ market? And why don’t all sellers sell in a seller’s market? You see, both groups have some that miss the market, usually out of greed or fear.

Some sellers believe the market will go up indefinitely. Some buyers fear today is not a good time to buy, because there are so many homes on the market. When the numbers begin to shift, both groups miss out because they don’t study the data. In fact, many Realtors miss it too. Realtors are guilty of judging the market based upon how their personal sales are going, rather than analyzing the market in depth weekly. If I sold 4 homes last week, as a Realtor I’m feeling like the market is great. Conversely, if I haven’t sold anything in 3 weeks, maybe I think the market is bad. What the Realtor is doing or not doing is irrelevant. It’s what the market is doing that counts.

If you’d like to see all the homes on the market, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com Zillow is no longer showing all the homes on the market, and they are banning certain listings. Our website will show all homes in the MLS, so you can see them all. Or call a buyer specialist today at 239-489-4042 and find out if there is a home out there that works for you.

Sellers, you can call us at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for your home’s instant value. Let us show you how to get your home sold today!

April Real Estate Update

How to Get Your Offer Accepted in Any Market

Single family March home prices declined 5.5% from last year. February home prices only declined 1.1%, so we’ll be watching to see if this is a new trend.

The height of the market was April of 2022 for median prices, and May for average prices. Next month we’re going to report the year over year April numbers as well as the current numbers versus the height of the market. Some buyers today feel like waiting because they believe prices should fall more than they have. If they realized prices began falling in 2022 once we got past May and into 2023 and 2024, they might begin to view the market differently.

March Home Prices Declined

March home prices declined sizably this year, but most don’t realize home prices started declining in 2022. Most agents didn’t recognize this because they look at year over year numbers which didn’t kick in until April of 2023. The price declines were happening in real-time starting in 2022. The other thing we have to calculate is seasonality, and this masked what was happening in 2022.

Inventory Levels

Single family home inventory bottomed out in February 15, 2022. We started tracking rising inventory levels from that day forward, and we knew that was the canary in the coal mine. It was just a matter of months after that date that prices began to drop. Ordinarily rising inventory levels wouldn’t cause prices to drop so quickly. It was the fact that it happened in the middle of season and never let up. Typically, listings max out in March, so it is not uncommon to see listings grow in February. Because there are so many sales in season, listings begin to drop again in April. That did not occur in 2022.

Rising Interest Rates

Remember, the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022. Inflation was rampant and costs were spiraling out of control. The government quite frankly spent too much money, and it hurt the economy and the housing market. There is a lag between rising rates and slower demand. Looking back, March of 2022 was the beginning of the end. Of course, something else upcoming would affect real estate too.

Insurance and Flooding

Hurricane Ian caused insurance companies to raise rates and look at flooding in a new light. SW Florida had largely been spared prior to 2022. Sure, we had Charley and Irma, but neither brought the flooding like Ian did.

Hurricanes

Hurricane Ian hit Sept 28, 2022. In 2024 SW Florida was affected by Helen and Milton. While not a dead hit like Ian, we did experience some flooding. Some properties flooded three times in 2 years, while others flooded twice. Buyers began to look at flood zones after Ian, and now their radar was activated after two storms in 2024. Many buyers left waterfront areas and moved inland. Total cost of ownership became an issue, and that affects home prices.

Track Your Home Value

If you’d like to track your home value over time, check out our Free Online Home Value Tool. www.SWFLhomevalues.com Once you begin, it will update and keep track of your home value over time. This is a useful tool to track the market. Or you can continue to read this article, or call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling! Call us if you need help.

One of the metrics we track is the median percent of original list price received. In March of 2025 that number was 94.2%. Last year in March it was 95.3%.

This tells us that for all homes sold in March of 2025, sellers received 94.2% of the original list price. This does not mean sellers took off an average of 5.8% of the current list price. If the home was priced correctly, it might sell at the original list price minus 3%. Or, if it is like the average home in Lee County, there might be another 2.8% in the cards.

Median Percent of Original List Price Metric

This metric emphasizes the importance of pricing a home correctly in the beginning of the listing. Not only will it sell faster, but it will also sell for more. We see many homes in the MLS that have had multiple price reductions. While this is good, it would have been better if the seller had started out more realistically. To be fair, in a shifting market, it isn’t always easy identifying where a home should be priced. The market leaves clues though.

This also tells us that many homes sell much more than 94.2%, because so many homes sell lower after multiple price reductions. This is even more evidence for why setting the best price up front nets sellers more money at closing table.

When Do Homes Sell?

The data tells us the vast majority of homes sell right away when priced correctly, or within 10 days of a price reduction. 10.78% of all single-family homes reduced their price in the last week. We typically see between 10-13% reduce each week. The average price reduction was 3.6% this past week, and that is also fairly typical.

Once a seller reaches market value, the home will sell. If your home is on the market for more than 10 days and not selling, it’s probably time to look at the price. Staying at a price for extended periods of time does not benefit the seller.

The median prices of homes sold in March 2025 sold for 5.5% less than last year. In a declining market, sheltering in place at the same price hurts you, unless you really don’t want to sell. Some sellers need to sell to move on with their next opportunity, and some do not. This isn’t the market to test the market. There are 9,997 single family homes on the market in Lee County and 5,312 condos and townhomes on the market.

The Market is Speaking

If you are testing the market, you’re clogging up the market for sellers who do wish to sell. Your home is not going to sell for more than it’s worth in today’s market. The good news is listing inventory dropped by 53 homes in the past week, and we have seen a surge in home buyer activity and offers. The gap between available homes and pending sales decreased by 45 this past week. Pending sales dropped by 8, but we are at the end of the month and many of the pending sales have closed.

The other good news is the market tells you right away if you’ve passed the test. If your home is marketed well and priced where the buyers will accept it, it will sell. If it is not, you have some work to do. In either event, when you do act, the market will reward you with a sale. It might not be at the original price you wanted, but that’s why we call it a market. Buyers never buy for as little as they want, and sellers never get as much at they want. Sellers set the price, and the market determines the value. If you can set your price close to where the market is, your home should sell.

Instant Value

Our website gives you an instant estimate of your home’s value. www.SWFLhomevalues.com Or you can call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 and we’ll evaluate your home and offer guidance. We can also discuss marketing that will help you get Top Dollar for your home.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

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Monthly Archives: May 2025

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