Home prices fall locally as rising interest rates and back to work states takes toll on the housing market. The Fed began raising interest rates in earnest in 2022 and the chilling effect on real estate prices was noticed almost immediately.

Home Prices Fall Locally in 2nd Half of 2022

Home prices are right back to where they began in January, around $414,000 for the median price. The average price is a different story as prices went backwards by about $40,000. Headlines show price gains year over year between 12 and 16%, but that was based on last September and not January. We have mentioned in previous articles that later in the year you will see those price gains come down or go away.

Post Hurricane Ian Home Prices

Hurricane Ian may not help prices either, but not because what you would think. Many of our more expensive homes in SW Florida are closer to the coast. We know many coastal homes flooded, so less will sell. This may help bring down the median and average sales prices for a while. It does not necessarily mean home prices are declining, just that the more expensive homes are not closing.

On the other hand, we could argue home prices were already coming down prior to Ian.  So maybe that will continue?  We analyzed home sales after Hurricanes Charley and Irma in a previous article. In both those cases, prices came down after the storm. With Irma, that price decline continued the next year. In Charley’s case, prices went up, but so did the red-hot housing market everywhere.

Our conclusion was that neither Charley nor Irma stood in the way of what was already happening in the market. It’s as if the hurricane had no effect.  If that holds true with Ian, it will be interesting to see where our market heads going into 2023.

Rising Interest Rates

We expect interest rates to rise further as the Fed battles inflation. Forecasts expect rates to level off mid-2023, but then again, they’ve been wrong for all of 2022. The bottom line is nobody knows what the economy, inflation, nor what the Fed will do until it happens.

We are telling people housing is tight in SW Florida, and Ian did nothing to help that situation. If you’d like to search the MLS and see up to the minute listings, search www.LeeCountyOnline.com. Nobody gets data to you faster. Speed wins finding the best listings in this market.

You need a professional to guide you in this market.  Some listings have damage and insurance claims. Each day we are learning more and more about claims, the 50% rule, and how past home improvements might affect the 50% rule. Navigating listings has never been more challenging, and most of the relevant information is contained in the confidential remarks section only agents have access to.

It might be a good idea to get a baseline of what your home was worth pre-hurricane at www.SWFLhomevalues.com and compare that each month after the storm. I would do so quickly before the new values come out.

If you have questions, feel free to call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500. Experience matters after a storm like Ian. Navigating the home sale and insurance process has never been more complicated than today.  85% of agents have never worked after a hurricane, so you don’t want them practicing on your transaction.

We’re here to help. Hopefully you and your family are safe. We know the heartache this storm has caused. It is heart breaking for sure. Our mission is to use our experience to help where we can.  Good luck, and God Bless from all of us at the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.

Current 30-year interest rates stand slightly over 7%, with mortgage rates expected to rise in the 4th quarter perhaps another one percent. Buyers have sticker shock simply because they’d gotten used to 3% rates for such a long time.

Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise in 4th Quarter

Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise Further

Rates have doubled this year. Many buyers want to wait until rates come down because they do not like the new rates. However, this strategy may cost home buyers as rates are expected to rise in the 4th quarter and into 2023.

Some people believe the Fed isn’t as serious as they say and will stop raising rates. The Fed has stated their target for the rest of 2022 is to raise about 1.25% more. This was before the September inflation data came out that was higher than expected.

We understand why people believe the Fed may pause raising rates. Raising rates will cause a deeper recession, and there is no guarantee it is going to work. The alternative is to do nothing, and high inflation is worse for the economy and Americans in general.

The Fed is fighting inflation and a government that keeps spending. If you pump money into the economy, you guarantee inflation. The Fed would prefer we slow down government spending so they wouldn’t have to raise rates so much. We have a $31 Trillion dollar debt, and rising rates affects the interest payments on that debt. This is not a good position.

Stock Pickers

We believe the Fed will raise rates 75 basis points in November. The stock market may do well until we get closer to the Fed meeting. The 10-year note is currently just under 4% but may start to rise as we get closer to the Fed meeting in November. This is a scenario we’ve seen play out each meeting this year. If you are a stock picker, betting on the market prior to a Fed meeting has been good as long as you sold off a week or two before the next meeting.

Home Buyers

If you are a home buyer, buying sooner rather than later may be in your best interest. A 1% rise in interest rates steals about 11% purchasing power from a buyer. Home inventory is already low and getting lower after Ian.

Rent Vs Buy

We are hearing stories of rents for single family homes exceeding $5,000/mo. Some go as high as $7-10k per month.  That’s basically $60,000-$120,000 for rent for one year. While interest rates might seem high, the cost of rent is crazy right now. Today is one of those days where it is better to purchase versus rent. After a storm, people need quick housing. They immediately turned to rentals, but as that inventory dries up it may force people to purchase.

FEMA housing can’t get here soon enough. It should have been here by now, but it isn’t in any quantity. The battle is going to be getting damaged homes fixed up and ready to sell to meet demand.

Home Sellers

We are working with several home sellers to bring their home to market. Some have damage and some are fairly free from damage. Pricing is determined by how much flood restoration will be needed and/or wind damage. If you are considering selling, now would be a good time to call us 239-310-6500

Our market conditions are changing as inventory changes. Fairly soon interest rates may change too. Buyers and sellers who act sooner may have best success. We took a punch from Hurricane Ian, but it doesn’t have to keep us down. You have options.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty to discuss your options. The Ellis Team was voted the Best Team in Real Estate by News Press readers for the 9th consecutive year. Let us help you figure out the best way forward after Ian.

Best of Fort Myers 2022

Hurricane Ian Information

We’re getting a lot of questions from homeowners who don’t know where to turn. Some want to sell but their home has sustained wind or flood damage. Today we like to provide a valuable Hurricane Ian real estate information update to answer some questions.

Hurricane Ian Real Estate Information Update

Insurers are reticent to issue new insurance without an affidavit that the home is free of hurricane related damage. What if the home has wind or flooding damage? Can the home be sold and financed?

Owner Wants to Sell

You may be able to buy a property with damage. Citizens Property Insurance will write coverage on damaged properties as temporary insurance and will simply exclude the damaged items. FHA has a loan called the FHA 203K that will allow a buyer to make repairs after they purchase. In this case we may be able to get a buyer a loan for a damaged home and do the repairs after closing all the while having insurance to satisfy the lender.

Owner Wants to Stay

What if an owner owns a home and it is wiped out or heavily damaged by the flood for more than the $250,000 flood coverage and they have a current mortgage on the property? FHA has another loan program called the FHA 203H that is only available in special disaster situations. It is a 100% LTV loan meaning no equity in the home is needed. The homeowner can finance on top of the current mortgage so they can rebuild or rehab their home without having to sell.

FEMA Resources

FEMA has setup two disaster centers that will help answer insurance type questions as well as tell you what is available through the state and federal government.  Cape Coral and Fort Myers are allowing people to setup trailers on their property while their home is being worked on. They may have trailer assistance available for you as well as a plethora of other options.


Your mortgage company may call you with some payment relief options that can help. Be careful though as forbearance options shouldn’t harm your credit score but it will affect your ability to finance another home for 2-3 years. You would think when the government offers a relief program it wouldn’t harm you in other ways, so be careful. If you have a FNMA or Freddie Mac insured loan the forbearance is 18 months and is added to the end of the loan. Interest does accrue. Private lenders might require the interest be paid in bulk at some point, and that might be too much for some borrowers.

Assignment of Claim

We have been successful in transferring the right under a claim to new buyers who are buying a damaged home. This is different that assignment of benefits whereby a contractor takes over the claim for your home. This is especially useful in cash transactions as many mortgage companies will not finance a new purchase with an existing claim outstanding.

Be Leary of Out of Town Contractors

Out of town contractors come here looking to make a fast buck. Some are reputable and are lifesavers, while others simply collect as many deposits as they can and skip town. Dealing with a reputable local company when you can is wise because they have a local reputation at stake, and often times you know where to find them.

FEMA 50% Rule

Many cities will require damaged homes to adhere to new building codes. Naples is just one example. If the cost of improvements or the cost to repair the damage exceeds 50% of the market value of the building, it must be brought up to current floodplain management.  See Naples Requirements. Look for Lee County and other cities to enact similar requirements.



Be aware of scammers, both online and at your door or on the phone. Not everybody is who they claim to be. Be careful clicking on links. Scammers today are more clever than ever.

Property to Sell

If you have a property to sell, always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. We are local and we have trusted resources. The Ellis Team cares about our clients and will do what’s right by you. We are not in it to make a fast buck. You can reach us at 239-310-6500 We’re here to help. If you have questions, we might know where to find the answer for you.

Praise God to all that survived, and prayers for the ones that did not!

Since Hurricane Ian people from all over the country have been asking what effect the hurricane will have on pricing in SW Florida. We studied past hurricane sales pricing data to see what impacts other hurricanes had on pricing so we could draw some conclusions.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data shows the median sales price when Hurricane Charley hit in August of 2004 was $202,600. In the months following the median price went to $197,800 through November, but then the market started taking off once the world recognized we are getting back on track. It’s almost like Hurricane Charley put SW Florida on the map. Prices ended the following year at $322,300.

Hurricane Charley

Keep in mind this was also the runup to the housing boom in SW Florida and other parts of the country. It was fueled by easy-to-get loans and overleverage. Probably none of the runup in prices had to do with Hurricane Charley, but Charley certainly didn’t hold our market back in any way either. We know this because similar markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas increased by similar percentages to what we did in SW Florida.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data Hurricane Charley

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma hit in September of 2017.  The median price of a home back in September of 2017 was $255,000. By the end of that same year that number fell to $238,350. Keep in mind one thing about these statistics.  Some homes had damage and needed repair before they could close, so it could skew the data. We only count homes that officially could close, and in those few short months we closed what we could.

We like to look at longer periods of time, so we looked through the next year for both hurricanes.  By the end of 2018 the median home price was $246,000. Home prices 15 months later were still below what they were when Hurricane Irma hit.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data Hurricane Irma


Current Data

So, what conclusions can we draw? One thing we know is that people have been displaced in their current homes. Those people are looking for new housing. Some are looking for temporary housing until their existing home is repaired, and some homes were wiped out and they’ll be looking for permanent housing. The need for rentals is expanding.

It remains to be seen how many displaced homeowners will look to purchase or rent, and how many might just leave the area.

Currently there are 138 less single-family homes on the market now than before Hurricane Ian hit. We expect this number to climb as agents gain access to power and Internet and assess their listings.

When Hurricane Charley hit the market nationwide was about to take off, and it did. When Hurricane Irma hit the economy was just revving up after a long flat growth period and housing hadn’t been affected yet.

With Hurricane Ian, the economy and the housing market were in contraction. Interest rates have risen, and housing had already started a downturn. Our market leveled off in August, but more economic headwinds were on the way.


Our conclusion is Hurricane Ian probably will not help our local real estate market based on past storms and economic conditions. Florida already had a desperate insurance situation pre-Ian, and we expect that to worsen. Building codes may change again, although newer built homes seemed to fare well. Nothing protects against rising water, and they say this was a once in a 500-year storm.

It will be interesting to watch sales numbers as they begin to change over the coming months. Nobody tracks the market like we do, so stay tuned. You can read articles and sales data going back to 2005 on our Blog at https://blog.topagent.com You can find out what your home is worth at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Keep in mind the analysis tool doesn’t know how much damage your home may or may not have. We would need to evaluate your home’s value further to be more accurate.

You can search the MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com, or call us at 239-489-4042 The Ellis Team is here to help. I still don’t have power yet, but we are working hard to answer your questions.

Good luck and stay safe. We’ll get through this together.

Home sales prices rose in August. The median home sale prices rose 16.9% over last year and rose .18% over July. At least it was a positive. Average home sale prices rose 22.4% over last year and 5.09% over July.

Home Sale Prices Rose in August

In 2022 we have noticed that when interest rates rise, home prices haven’t fared as well.  August bucked that trend.  Rates started out at 4.99% in early August and ended about 5.55% at the end of the month.

Home Sale Prices Rose-Will it Continue?

We will be watching September prices closely as rates have risen dramatically. While we are seeing less offers for homes it does not appear that prices are declining right now. We did see some price declines May through July as the market adjusted.

Supply and demand have held for the past 7 weeks or so.  We will be doing a future article on supply and demand in greater detail. Suffice it to say, if supply and demand are holding steady as well has home prices, it will setup an interesting baseline as mortgage rates rise after the September Fed meeting.

Our suspicion is it will be difficult to see rapidly rising prices in an increasing rate environment. Our market has done well to hold onto much of the price gains of the past few years and we will be tested in the next 6 months. We believe the year over year price gains we saw in August of 16.9% and 22.4% are about to change. Last year we saw big price runups from September 2021 to April 2022.  We will begin bumping up against those numbers, and by the time we get to April it will be hard to eclipse those numbers at an appreciable rate.

Many parts of the country have seen buyers scrambling to complete purchases and lock in rates before they go up. It is possible we will see continued demand from buyers attempting to beat the rate increases. The Fed’s mission is to slow the economy, and that starts with housing.  Housing accounts for about 32% of GDP, so how the housing market goes so goes the overall economy.  To quell inflation, they must slow the economy.

Our local real estate market has been resilient in the face of strong headwinds. The question is, will our market stand up to what our Fed must do to lower inflation? That is the $64 million question. While we cannot predict what the economy, or what our local market will do, we will track the statistics and report out to you what the data shows, and the feeling on the streets.


If you are thinking about buying now may be a good time.  We know of some zero lender fee loans out there that can save you thousands when financing. We can take that savings and buy the interest rate down which also saves on your mortgage payment.


If you’re considering selling, prices have cooled over the summer but leveled off.  Now might be a good time to take your profits and move on to your next venture.  If you’d like to speak with Brett or Sande Ellis, call us at 239-310-6500 The Ellis Team has been in business over 35 years, so we know how to structure contracts and financing to benefit our clients. Working with agents with experience can make the difference between getting your transaction closed and missing this opportunity.  We’re here to help!

We decided to do an article on why buyers fire real estate agents because it’s been happening more lately. Here are 6 quick reasons.

Why Buyers Fire Real Estate Agents

Why Buyers Fire Real Estate Agents

  1. Buyers don’t feel listened to. Inexperienced agents like to tell buyers things they know based on their limited knowledge, or things they think the buyer should know. The true art of selling real estate comes when you are confident that you can answer any question the buyer might have, and you ask them things about the buyer. Buyers feel listened to and feel that the agent cares.
  2. Agent is too busy-some agents don’t want to waste time with buyers because not all buyers buy, and they just drive them around for days burning gas. Some agents hand the buyers a list of homes so they can drive through neighborhoods and whittle down the list. Invariably, the buyer ends up working with another agent after driving around.
  3. Buyer price range unrealistic-The agent may feel they cannot help the buyer because the buyer’s requests are unrealistic, so they blow off the buyer. I cannot tell you how many homes we have sold to buyers who later changed their criteria after learning the market. You must let buyers self-discover the market. Of course they don’t know the market when they come here. Often we find they will up their price range or delete some of their requested features once they learn.
  4. The average agent has been in business less than 5 years. They begin to hear an objection from buyers a few times, so they begin to believe all buyers have that same objection. Subconsciously the agent loses motivation because they feel like nobody wants to buy. A common objection buyers say today is they will wait for prices to come down. An experienced agent can point out that even if prices come down higher interest rates will cost the buyer more by waiting. It takes an agent with listening skills and experience with calculating rate scenarios to overcome this objection. It is absolutely in the buyer’s best interest to find a more experienced agent to help them. Until they do, they will keep shopping for agents. The sad thing is, the longer it takes them to find a good agent the more it costs them.
  5. Buyers lose confidence in their agent. Perhaps the agent cannot answer insurance questions or explain the mortgage process. Some agents have a difficult time explaining the contract or knowing what terms the seller might be looking for. Inexperience manifests itself in many ways, and almost all cost the buyer money or the deal. It’s no fun missing out on a home you love or paying for things you don’t need to.
  6. Agents fails to set the table-buyers often don’t know the process. A good agent should explain the process and walk the buyer through it before they ever look at homes. Finding a home is the easy part. Getting the buyer through the maze of tasks, disclosures, contracts, and approvals can be daunting. The buyer and buyer agent must be on the same page. It is incumbent on the buyer agent to educate the buyer on what it takes to buy a home in SW Florida.

If you are considering buying a home in SW Florida, I would suggest sitting down with an Ellis Team agent who can answer your questions. Don’t just hire the first agent you meet at an open house or elsewhere. Seek out an agent that will listen to you and educate you. A good agent won’t ell you anything, rather they will present you with your options.

We can be reached at 239-489-4042 or you can search the MLS for Free at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Let us know how we can serve you.

Expect large interest rate hike at next Federal reserve meeting Sept 21st.  Inflation numbers were released this week and CPI rose .6% over last month and 8.3% over last year. This number came in hotter than expected and left the Fed little choice in raising rates.

Expect Large Interest Rate Hike


Most experts now say a .75% hike is certain. Some were hoping for a .5% hike, and still other fear 1% hike as a possibility.  Our bet is on the .75%. The bad news is that persistent inflation may lengthen the time before the Fed can begin lowering rates. Many hoped for lower rates next year.

If our government keeps spending money, the Fed will have to keep raising rates. On the one hand rising rates should stifle economic activity while on the other, more spending adds to the money supply we are trying to slow down. We have competing forces instead of both working together to fight inflation.

National Call

We sit on a national call each week of top agents. This week they reported that housing demand had dropped due to higher interest rates. Nationally, inventory stalled. Over 40% of listings had at least 1 price reduction. When that number gets to 45% it is considered bearish. The average is 30% for those that are wondering.

Pending home sales nationally are down 22% year over year. Showing requests are down 41.2% nationally, and closings are down 17%.

Target Rates

The Fed had set a target rate of 2.25% to 2.5% for 2022, but many Fed governors are now saying they may have to raise that rate to 3.5% to even 4%. The 10 Year note typically will follow the target rate because it is longer duration and helps predict what the economy will do after 1-2 years out.  So far, we have seen the 10-year note creeping up. As we write this article on Sept 13th it sits at 3.432% Remember, 30-year mortgage rates are pegged off of the 10-year note. As we get closer to Sept 21st and future guidance by the Fed, we expect this target could increase, which could increase the yield on the 10-year note. If that happens, mortgage rates will increase, putting further pressure on stock market and real estate market. We expect large interest rate hike later this week.

We expect the stock market to do better later in the year, but we may have some rocky weeks until then. The real estate market may feel pressure until we get ahead of inflation and start to see the downslide.

Local Statistics

Locally listing inventory has also stalled. Closings are down but pending inventory has also stalled. Demand has been persistent, and if we don’t see a major influx of sellers, we should see stable prices going forward. If more sellers decide to pile on to our inventory numbers, it could lead to modestly lower prices as we do not see demand picking up in a rising rate environment.

New Seller Program

The Ellis Team has a new program designed to get sellers Top Dollar and sell quickly. Call Brett or Sande Ellis for details 239-310-6500. The program is so good it has several patents at the US Trademark Office, and we are pleased to be able to bring this program to our area.

Or, if you’re just curious about your home’s property value, or would like to track it over time, check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com It will be interesting to see how continued rising rates will affect the market.

If you have real estate questions, we’ve got answers. Give us a call. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty, your local market experts.

The SW Florida 2022 housing market stalls out in many categories. Closed sales and pending sales are down. Let’s take a deeper look at home prices and inventory levels.

2022 Housing Market Stalls Out


2022 Housing Market Stalls

The average price of closed single family home sales in Lee County fell by 4.1% this year. The median price has risen 1.57%. If you look at the graph it is plain to see that home prices have stalled out.

Home and condo inventory levels have also stalled out the past 4 weeks, holding steady around 3,180 homes and 959 condos on the market. Ironically, there has been a direct correlation between the housing inventory levels and closed sale prices.

Inventory levels are a direct result of supply and demand. Sometimes more listings hit the market and the demand is so high the market gobbles them up.  Other times demand is less than supply.  For about four months we saw supply outpacing demand, therefore inventory grew. It not only grew, but it also doubled in a short time period.

Inventory Stalls

Thankfully inventory levels have stalled out, and so has the pricing. Home prices are down from their peaks in June and July. Unofficial numbers we have studied in MLS suggest home prices may have gone up slightly in August. This is unofficial because not all home sales may have been reported as of Sept 6th, and there could be a few sales outside of our local MLS that could affect the numbers.

Unofficial numbers suggest around 1,130 closings in August. For perspective, July saw 1,168 officially.

At any rate, while an uptick in August, it is not a significant rise. We also caution people not to focus on any given month. We like to look at trends. The trend we are seeing now is that the 2022 housing market stalls out in SW Florida in several categories.

We are returning to a normal market, which is healthy. Of course, nobody knows what will happen with the economy or interest rates going forward. What we do know is this market is very steady. May buyers fear the market is going to go down. We can state the market has already gone down and buyers may have missed it.

Some sellers have missed it too. The question on everyone’s mind is, where do we go from here? Nobody knows for certain, but we can say the market has acted rationally through this transition and there is no reason to believe it won’t again if circumstances change. We don’t have a crisis market. We have a market sensitive to interest rates and economic fluctuations, and that’s a good thing. It means the market is healthy and predictable depending on what economic conditions persist.

New Home Selling Program

The Ellis Team will be rolling out a new program for home sellers. This program is proven to get sellers Top Dollar and their home sold quickly. Stay tuned for details. If you are thinking of selling, you can call Sande or Brett at 239-310-6500 to get on the schedule for this new program. We’ll be happy to view your home and go over the details of the program.

If you’d like to check out your home value, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com You can track each month whether your home is going up or down in value.

If you have real estate questions, our team is here to help. Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042, the Real Estate Authority in SW Florida!

Home prices have declined recently so we are telling our buyers to marry the house and date the rate. We don’t see major price declines going forward because we have a housing production deficit that has kept supply at bay.

Marry the House and Date the Rate
Interest Rate Forecast – August 2022

Back in 2005 we had an oversupply of homes. Today we have an undersupply. Rising rates have made homes less affordable than they were 6 months ago but it doesn’t change the fact that we are short on housing inventory. For this reason, we do not see home prices declining off the charts.

The Ellis Team Current Market Index has leveled off the past 4 weeks showing stabilization in the market. For those who do not remember, the Ellis Team Current Market Index accurately predicts the future direction of the real estate market.

We’ve written how real estate is a great hedge against inflation and historically a better investment than the stock market. The sooner people get into a home the quicker that home can start working for them financially. While none of us like the fact that rates have risen, we cannot change that. We can lock-in a home to protect ourselves financially and refinance the home when rates go down later. We need a place to live anyway.

New Program

FNMA predicts that interest rates will average 4.5% next year and fall to about 4.4% in the 2nd half of the year. We have a program whereby a buyer can purchase a home today from us and refinance later when the rates go down with zero lender fees. This saves the borrower so much money on interest and in closing costs when they refinance.

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams also has a program that will save home buyers closing costs when they purchase and get a mortgage. We can offer that same zero lender fee loan on the purchase.

As inflation goes on the cost of building a new home is not going down. We know the nation has underproduced housing for over a decade. It makes sense to get into a home sooner rather than later, even if the rates are higher today than what they might be next year.

Marry the House and Date the Rate

Find the home you want to marry. It’s yours. You own it.  The rate you can date. We can change that out anytime along the journey. Our team of buyer specialists can help you find a great home. We are still in a seller’s market, so the best homes go fast. Inventory has risen since February, but it has leveled off in recent weeks.

If you’re thinking of selling your home someday you might want to keep track of its value over time. Our Free home valuation tool will tell you your home’s value each month, so you can track it over time. Simply go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com Type in your address and our system will email you the new value each month. Pretty cool!

If you’re thinking of buying, our MLS search website is the Best out there. Go to www.LeeCountyOnline.com and search away. You can even save your search and the system will email you new properties that match your criteria.

Or you can call us at 239-489-4042 and speak with Brett or Sande or a member of our team. We’re not here to sell you anything, only present you with your options.

Good luck, happy shopping, and Happy Labor Day weekend!

Average home prices fell 16.4% from May Peak. Last year home prices fell 10.5% in a similar period April through July. Essentially average home prices fell 5.9% more this year than last year around this time.

Home Prices Fell 16.4% From May Peak


Home Prices Fell 16.4% From May

I read a lot of headlines that talk about how home sales have fallen but prices are still going up.  I would argue that home prices are not going up and whoever wrote the headline doesn’t understand our market.

It is true that median home prices are up 16.7% over last year and average home prices are up 17.4%. That doesn’t tell the whole story.  Those are year over year numbers, and they are declining each month because homes are not going up currently. We saw over $100,000 median price gain from September 2021 to April 2022. We saw $188,000 gain in average price from September 2021 to May 2022.  Since April/May it’s been downhill.  We are still up year over year because most of the gains happened from September on.

The real numbers will begin to show in October once official September numbers are released.  From this coming September to April, we will get an excellent idea of how the market is doing. We can already see home prices are down slightly, but to calculate how much of that is from seasonality is hard to do.

What seems absurd is the fact some people believe home prices are still appreciating. Listing inventory has tripled since February, pending sales are down, and closed sales are down. This is not a sign of an appreciating market.  Home buyers know it, and home sellers know it too.  I appreciate the media putting a good spin on the market, but quite frankly we don’t need a good spin.

The market is what it is, and always will be. You cannot spin the market into something it is not. When inventory is rising it means supply is outpacing demand. When inventory is falling it means that buyers are scooping up properties faster than they come on the market.

Simple Law

We have an excellent market, if you price your home fairly and market it aggressively.  This simple law works in all markets, up, down, or sideways. Hire the best Realtor you can find, market the property for full exposure to the largest number of buyers, and price it fairly. I’ve seen sellers miss the best seller’s market we’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen buyers miss out on the best buyer’s market we’ve ever seen.

Buyers and sellers typically miss the market out of greed. The truth is, over just about any 10-year period real estate is a good investment. Don’t get too greedy and you will never miss the market. Sure, real estate can go down in the short term. In the long term, real estate has done well, and even better than the stock market.

Don’t believe everything you read or hear. Consult a local market expert. While we are experts in this market, we would never purport to be an expert in another market. Listening to someone from another state about how to negotiate or price a home locally doesn’t make sense.

Always go deeper than the headline. Sometimes the headline doesn’t match the content of the story. Ask yourself if the data makes sense and seek out numerous opinions if you are unsure. When you hire the best, you tend to get much better results. This is true in any profession.

Always Call the Ellis Team

If you are thinking about selling your SW Florida property, give the Ellis Team a call. We have the knowledge, experience, and marketing muscle to expose your home to the largest audience. 239-310-6500 Find out if your home is going up or down in value online for free!

Good luck and Happy Selling!