Official November sales have been released and so far, we can report 4^th quarter closed home sales down in SW Florida. We started the year off well. September is when we noticed the largest drop off for the year.

4th Quarter Closed Home Sales

Some people blame the election for slow sales in the 4^th quarter. Buyers certainly were holding back during that time period, and that was a common reason given. However, the hurricanes may have played a part too.

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on September 26^th. While offshore to SW Florida, Helene brought flooding and uncertainty about where she was going to go days before she hit. Only a few weeks later, Hurricane Milton made landfall on October 9^th in the Tampa area. Milton came closer to SW Florida than Helene did, and the flooding seemed to be worse.

Both these storms did two things. They impacted some closed sales, and they made buyers think twice about where they wanted to live. Some SW Florida residents grew weary and decided to leave the state altogether. Others decided to move inland more, avoiding the hassle and cost of flooding, and perhaps the higher cost of insurance.

Election

And then there was the election. Nobody knew how that was going to turn out, but people had feelings on both sides. People hold off large purchases when there are unknowns, and typically resume their life when unknowns become known. Regardless of who won, we believe people would go on with their lives. The fear of the unknown is often worse than the reality of the known, even if the desired outcome was not achieved. Now people can move on and deal with facts, even if they do not agree.

Interest Rates

The Fed just cut rates another quarter percent. This hasn’t translated to lower mortgage rates though. In fact, mortgage rates have climbed since the Fed began cutting rates. Many buyers have been waiting for lower rates. Because rates have not cooperated, this may have stalled some home buyers’ decisions.

Next week we’ll have some interesting insight into what buyers may ultimately decide in 2025, and how this could affect home sales. It’s an opinion you probably haven’t read anywhere else, so stay tuned.

Selling Your Home?

Selling a home today requires three things.  Advanced marketing. You’ve got to find a way to make your home stand out. With almost 7,700 single family homes on the market in Lee County, the marketing must work. Secondly, it must be priced correctly. The unfortunate thing is some correctly priced homes still do not sell. Again, marketing matters. Lastly, your Realtor needs advanced data analytics. How do you know where your home needs to be priced if you don’t have analytics on the market?

This isn’t a price it and forget it type of market. The market is changing daily, and sellers need to keep up with the data. Knowing exactly what the market is doing helps you keep one step ahead of other sellers. Remember, your competition isn’t the buyer. It is all the other sellers competing for the same buyers as you.

We hope this weekly article helps you stay attuned to the market. For more advanced analysis, contact Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We can guide you through the data and marketing maze and get your home sold. When the market makes a move, it pays to know before everyone else. Most sources report the numbers a month or more after they occur, then react. The Ellis Team studies the market daily and provides guidance.

Or, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for instant automatic valuations. Computers aren’t perfect, but they are fun to track and do offer some insight. Call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis for the inside scoop when a computer just won’t do.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!

The Ellis Team current market index predictions for the 1^st quarter of 2025 are in and we are seeing some mixed signals. Historically the current market index has been an accurate forecaster of future prices in the SW Florida Real Estate market.

Current Market Index Predictions

Because the index is a leading indicator, the resulting prices lag the index number. As you can see from the graph, the index number has been rising in the past few years. Accordingly, home prices have been falling for the same period. Sometimes it takes a few months for the resulting prices to move. The index trend is still upward, so we would expect home prices to come under pressure moving forward.

Seasonality

One exception to the model is seasonality. Traditionally our higher sales in SW Florida occur in or just after season. The underlying index numbers may point to lower future home prices, but they sometimes have to wait for the seasonal sales to complete. A drastic rise in the current market index can offset seasonality, but so far we’ve only seen a slight to moderate uptick in the index.

Going back decades, the index moves were more dramatic, and we saw prices fall dramatically when the index said they would.

In the past few weeks, we’ve written about the Inventory Sales Gap Metric along with the Supply-Demand chart and the Months Supply of Inventory graph. When we combine those data sets along with the Current Market Index Predictions, the picture becomes clear. We believe November median home sales prices in Lee County will be down about $12,000 from last year. Additionally, the number of closings may be down by about 90 sales as well. We won’t know for certain until official numbers are released later this month.

January

Two things typically happen in January. Showings begin to pick up after about January 15^th and stay steady for the season, and listing inventory increases too. Many SW Florida property owners place their property for sale in season, thinking that is the best time to sell. The truth is, higher priced buyers are here in season, but that only matters if the listing is priced correctly. Additionally, by waiting until January, more sellers are in competition with each because they all waited.

This past week the Ellis Team placed 6 properties under contract. Showing activity has definitely picked up in the last two weeks, but not on all properties. There may be less buyers here in December, but the buyers that are here tend to be serious. In January there may be more lookers, but it doesn’t mean they will all buy in January. Many are just beginning the buying process, and some take a few years to finally decide to make the move.

Winning Strategy

If your goal is to sell in 2025, you need two things. Hire the Best Realtor you can find, and price it properly. No matter how much your agent advertises your property, if the buyer doesn’t see the value, it will not sell. Not all agents market the same. Each will have their spiel about why their marketing is effective. If you are considering selling, it pays to interview the Ellis Team at Keller Williams 239-310-6500. Hiring the wrong Realtor can cost you thousands, and it could cost you the sale entirely. Talk to Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis and we can discuss your needs and what it will take to get your home sold in a changing market.

Knowing exactly what the market is doing combined with the best marketing and experience leads to better outcomes. Nobody studies the market like we do, and we’ve been voted Best in SW Florida 12+ years by News Press readers. That is not by accident.

We look forward to hearing from you. Or check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com for instant online home price valuation models.  Good luck, and Happy Selling!