Median Southwest Florida home prices fell 5% in June this year versus last year. Average home prices fell 4.1% year over year.

Good News? 

Is there any good news with Southwest Florida home prices falling? The answer is yes. This is good news for home buyers. Secondly, we are seeing fewer listings on the market. The gap between the available listings on the market and pending sales has lessened, which creates less inventory. The other piece of good news is pending sales increased last week on single family homes. We saw inventory decrease for single family homes, condos, and manufactured homes across the board.  The real question is what will happen with listing inventory heading into season?

Insurance

We just got word last week that two more carriers entered the Florida market. That’s 14 new carriers that have entered since 2023. Consequently, rates are dropping. 27 companies have requested a rate decrease for policies in effect in 2024 or later. 41 companies have requested no rate hike. Citizens Property Insurance multi-peril policies are down to 9% of all policies in Florida from 16.7% last September. Currently Citizens carries 74.5% of the wind-only policies, down from 80%. Insurance reforms are working, which is driving down rates.

Property insurance lawsuits were down 23% in 2024, and so far, this year they’re down another 25%.

Southwest Florida Home Prices

So, what is the future of Southwest Florida home prices? Prices are still declining. Interest rates haven’t changed much yet, and insurance costs are decreasing. This all helps affordability. As the economy improves it should lead to more home sales.  Last week we wrote about shadow inventory and what that could mean for the future direction of home prices. A lot of variables are working together to influence home prices. These variables are not all working in the same direction, which is typical. When they all work in one direction, we typically see a shift in the market approaching down the road.

Timing the Market

We’ve written in the past about timing the market. (See May 15^th article at https://blog.topagent.com)  It’s almost impossible to do this, and anyone who did has had some luck on their side. The May 15^th article offers some strategies for those wondering if now is the time to buy or sell.  We might see Southwest Florida home prices decline further, then flatten out until inventory and shadow inventory are depleted.

Buyers are in a strong position here and these positions don’t last forever. Just ask those that wish they would have sold back in 2022. The bottom of the market may be in the next 6-12 months, or not. It’s always better to buy 1-2% before the bottom than 1-2% after the bottom. Prices are the same, but when the market begins to rise buyers get panicked and start buying. This creates competition for the best listings amongst all the buyers now getting off the fence. Additionally, buyers have less leverage with sellers because everybody knows the bottom has passed.

Prices may not rise wildly like they did in Covid, and we had less than 3% interest rates. If you see a home that meets your needs, consider buying it. This market will stop declining and level out until economic forces align to push it. It takes time for economic forces to gather momentum, and we’ll report when we see the first signs of momentum change.

Check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com to track the momentum of the price of your home. If you have real estate questions, reach out to Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Southwest Florida Home Prices Market Update

Today we’d like to bring you a real estate industry update. A lot has happened since we last updated you on these topics.

Real Estate Industry Update

Compass Real Estate brought a lawsuit against Zillow over real estate listings. At issue is Zillow’s refusal to display Compass brokerage listings that are privately marketed outside MLS. Zillow wants Compass to market all listings in MLS so Zillow can display them.

Zillow uses agent listings to display on their website, then sell leads back to real estate agents.  They do this in a few ways. One way is Zillow has a contact agent button on each listing. That lead goes to a Flex agent who pays Zillow up to 40% referral fee when the property closes. Buyers are surprised to learn they are not dealing with the listing agent and must sign a touring or showing agreement with the Zillow agent before viewing the home. Many times, the Zillow agent shows up at the open house with the prospective agent, and the open house agent and the customer is confused about what everyone is doing.

Zillow Flex agents are under pressure because they have to make contact immediately and document for fear of losing Zillow leads. 40% is a heavy price to pay Zillow when the agent receiving the leads also has a split with their brokerage.

Sellers Astounded

 Sellers are astounded to find out when buyers click on their home in Zillow the lead is not going to their listing agent. You know, the agent who knows more about the home than any other agent and is motivated to sell the home. The Flex agent is motivated to sell a home and does not care if it’s that home. Furthermore, the Flex agent may know nothing about the home or neighborhood The home generated a lead but who knows where it’s going?

Homes.com

Homes.com is a large real estate portal like Zillow. The difference is when the home inquiry comes in, it does go directly to the listing agent. The buyer will be dealing with someone that knows the home and the neighborhood, and the seller’s situation. Realtor.com sells leads as well and doesn’t tell you that another agent not associated with the property may be contacting you. While the listing agent is technically identified in a separate part of the page in small print, that is not where the contact agent or email agent inquiry goes to. The agents receiving the lead have absolutely no motivation to sell that home. Sellers may want to ask if their home will be promoted to Homes.com listings. This does cost the listing agent money, but it is worth it. The free listing on Zillow and realtor.com aren’t free when leads go elsewhere when they purchase.

Compass Real Estate

Compass Real Estate is in a conundrum. Not only are they in a lawsuit with Zillow, but they are also at odds with the National Association of Realtors over their clear cooperation policy. Compass wants the ability to market listings outside of MLS, meaning the public won’t find out about them unless they are working with a Compass agent. Some sellers are reluctant to list with Compass and receive less exposure now because of this legal squabble. Zillow slams Compass “Hidden Listing Scheme in response to Compass lawsuit

Compass argues that it might be in the seller’s best interest to not be marketed publicly. Many experts think this stance is ridiculous, while others see some merit to it in certain situations. We do not agree with Compass’ assumption on a mass scale. However, we do believe sellers and brokerages should have the right to market as they please. The customers can decide if this is best practice based upon their personal situation.

Check out our listings on Homes.com. Tell us what you think. As a seller, would you rather inquiries be sold to a random agent or go directly to the listing agent? As a buyer, would you prefer to deal with a random agent, or receive information directly from the listing agent? We’d like to hear your thoughts.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Today we wanted to cover the final Big Beautiful Bill Passage benefits to real estate that the president signed on July 4^th. If you own real estate, or thinking of buying, there’s a lot to like in this act.

Final Big Beautiful Bill Passage Benefits Real Estate

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit was made permanent and increased by 12.5%. Additionally, the bond financing requirement was reduced, as well as adding a 30% basis boost for properties in rural and tribal areas. The goal was to increase the supply of affordable housing and help entry-level home buyers.

Section 1031 Like Kind Exchanges were preserved. By maintaining this provision, investors will be able to defer capital gains and re-invest in other properties while preserving cash flow.

Permanent Cap on Mortgage Interest Deduction up to $750,000. This will provide certainty for borrowers and maintain home ownership as a solid tax strategy.

Permanent Mortgage Insurance Deduction. Borrowers can now permanently deduct PMI, FHA MIP, VA funding fees and USDA guarantee fees subject to income limits. This reduces the effective cost of low-down payment loans which should make homeownership more affordable.

Temporary Raised SALT Deduction Cap. This was raised from $10,000 to $40,000 per household from 2025-2029. This will help homeownership in high tax states for the next 4 years.

Restoration of 100% Bonus Depreciation. This will help property owners with new construction or acquisitions as well as those doing renovations or tenant improvements.

Permanent 20%  Deduction for Qualified Business Income. Since most real estate qualifies as a trade or business under IRS guidelines, real estate investors can deduct 20% of their net rental income which will lower their effective tax rates and improve their yields.

Gain on Sale Rollover Provision Maintained. Real estate owners maintain the ability to roll over gains on property sales into opportunity zones and other structures,

Always Seek Tax Advice From Your Tax Professional

There are many other provisions in the tax act, too numerous to mention in this article. We focused this article on the provisions that affect home buyers and investors. Other provisions are designed to kick start the economy, like the section 179 expensing cap increase, the 899 retaliatory tax elimination, and the permanent small business estate tax exemption. The estate tax threshold was set at $15 million and is inflation adjusted. This provision will make it easier for families to transfer generational wealth without forcing them to sell to pay the IRS.

Investment in US

Companies now are incentivized to build factories in America and hire US labor, bringing jobs back to America. The final big beautiful bill should boost real wages for workers and provide a higher standard of living.

New data suggests import prices are falling despite tariffs. With inflation falling and real wages set to rise in the US, this act could be good for home buyers looking to begin building wealth for their family by buying real estate. Too many buyers have been priced out of the market. A correction in prices combined with lower interest rates and new tax provisions might be just what the doctor ordered for those struggling to make ends meet.

Best Place to Search Real Estate

Check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com It contains all the listings. Some of the real estate portals like Zillow and Redfin are banning certain listings, so you won’t see them all. Some brokerages are purposely not sending listings to Zillow and Redfin, and they are in lawsuits over the issue. Our website displays all the listings, so you’ll have access to everything in Real-Time. Check our neighborhoods, sold data, and home value estimates all in one site. You can even save your search and be notified when new listings or price changes hit the market.

Call Us

You can always reach our team at 239-489-4042. We’re here to help, and easy to talk to. We’re never pushy. We listen to your needs and provide valuable insight. Buyers and sellers thank us for listening and presenting options they never thought of. What can we do for you?

Official Lee County home sold prices are out and May was a rough month for prices. Remember a few weeks ago our internal data suggested home prices would be down 8.46% in May. Official figures show home prices down 9.6% from May previously.

Condo prices were down 8.8% as well from the previous year. As you can tell from the chart, home prices have been falling monthly. May single family home prices were at $375,000, down from $390,000 in April. There is some seasonality to the numbers, but there are no denying home prices have been on the decline.

Interest Rates

Since the brief Iran conflict, interest rates have been heading down. The 10-year note is down to 4.258% as I write this article more than a week in advance. A lot can happen in a week, but if this trend continues, it may help alleviate some downward pressure.

Oil is also down since the conflict. If this trend continues, it paves the way for Fed to begin lowering interest rates this year. The Fed meets again in late July. Many expect they won’t reduce until September, but evidence is beginning to support a reduction that could come at any time.

One Known Wildcard

The US is up against a debt limit, and tax policy is uncertain going forward. If Congress passes a bill that solves both and keeps taxes lower, the economy is set to take off again. If congress fails, taxes will skyrocket and the economy will stall, so much is at stake. If the economy does well, it eventually trickles down to the real estate market.

Unknown Wildcards

There are many, but they seemed to have calmed down after the Iran conflict. The world needs US leadership, and that’s what they got. That leadership appears to have sent a message to Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. China could take over Taiwan at any time, but the way Iran was handled may quell that for the time being.

When the world is this quiet and this good, it makes me question if somebody is up to something. While US leadership sent a message that was received across the globe, I never trust silence for too long. We’ll take it for now.

Selling in This Market

If you have property to sell, you should talk to Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500. The Ellis Team had another record month in June. Our marketing and experience pays off in a market like this. Other agents are having difficulty getting showings while the Ellis Team is selling homes. Sit down with Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis and find out what makes the difference. We can show you some things we do that other agents do not do, like advanced marketing and advanced AI. Be sure to read last week’s article about AI in real estate. While every agent uses AI for simple tasks, few are using it to do the powerful things AI was meant to do. Official Lee County home sold prices may be down, but not all home prices are dropping.

Check Your Property Value

We have a Free online value estimate tool. Check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com It’s fun to see the new values come out each month and see how it changed. Our system will do that for you. And remember, computers are great, but we’re only a phone call away from a conversation about your situation. You can call us and we can brainstorm your best options.

Enjoy the 4^th of July weekend and remember the freedoms we enjoy here in the US did not come free. We earned it, so let’s enjoy it.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams in collaboration with an agent in Southern Indiana have developed an advanced AI real estate bot to assist and create advanced marketing plans for listings that have had difficulty selling.  This bot only works in real estate and learns every minute of the day.

Advanced AI Real Estate Bot is Different

Most agents use Ai to help write property descriptions. At first, they were clever and fun. Now, property descriptions are almost meaningless because they all sound the same, and consumers are onto them.

Our advanced AI real estate bot is different. We programmed it to ask questions and input data regarding what we are trying to solve. For instance, let’s say an expired listing calls us and wants to interview other agents for the job of selling their home. We can ask the bot why the home didn’t sell and ask to create a specific marketing plan to make the home stand out.

The last analysis we ran on an expired listing analyzed the property and determined price wasn’t the reason the property wasn’t selling.  The bot came up with a specific marketing plan tailored to that property.

Ellis Team Innovative Marketing

We like to think we have some innovative marketing ideas that work here at the Ellis Team. In fact, our results speak for themselves. What we saw the bot recommend blew us away. The bot analyzed the HOA, proximity to places close to the neighborhood, and what past buyers liked about the community. The bot gave clever descriptions to entice new buyers based upon those traits. It even mentioned why some buyers objected to the neighborhood and how to overcome that.

Furthermore, the bot asked us more questions and made more suggestions. This private advanced AI real estate bot is like having a New York advertising firm and data firm working for us 24/7.

AI Data

The Ellis Team research department has data going back decades and we spend a lot of time analyzing it for our clients. Because we have so much data, we have found ways to use AI to ask questions. Within seconds we can ask detailed questions, and the bot will provide answers. It used to take us many hours to sort and organize the data. Many times, the analysis involved multiple data sets. Of course, AI does not work without the data. By combining the data we have with Ai we can now help buyers and sellers make better decisions in less time.

AI Will Not Replace Agents

AI on its own doesn’t do anything. You must know which questions to ask and set the bots for what you’re trying to accomplish. Experience in real estate helps too because AI may return an answer that doesn’t quite make sense, based upon how you asked the question. I was helping an agent analyze various neighborhoods to invest in and one answer didn’t quite add up. It turns out, I needed to ask a more precise question. Had I not had the experience in real estate down here I might not have known to do that. The assumptions and data you input to the AI bot can affect the outcome.

Fresh Eyes

Do you have a property that failed to sell? Would you like a set of fresh eyes to see if we could sell your property? Perhaps it was the price. Maybe it failed to sell because of how it was marketing. Most sellers are reluctant to reduce their price until they are confident that the property was marketed for all its worth. When you list with the Ellis Team, you know it’s marketed well. And we’re always looking at ways to attract more people to our listings.

Call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 We can sit down with you and analyze your property. We’ll even show you the Bot and watch it work if you like. Together, the Ellis Team partnering with you gives you the best chance of selling. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a free instant online estimate.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Readers have been asking for the latest city housing supply numbers in Lee County. We decided to break housing supply numbers down by city/township area instead of the overall county. When you see the overall market in this graph, it is for the overall within these selected cities and not Lee County overall.

Latest City Housing Supply Numbers

The month’s supply of inventory has fallen in every category since we pulled these numbers in April. This is due largely to many sellers taking their home off the market. Data also shows that home sales have increased slightly. Fort Myers Beach saw the largest drop of almost 5 months’ supply. The islands are next at almost 3 months drop.

Bonita/Estero is leading the market with the lowest inventory supply of all the areas in Lee County. Cape Coral is down to 7.43 months in supply of homes, which is exactly what the overall number is. Lehigh Acres is doing better than average, as is Fort Myers. The problem areas are still the barrier islands and the beach.

Sales Activity Analysis

Every single area saw lower homes on the market. All experienced rising home sales except for two areas. Cape Coral and the islands are those two areas. This tells us that the Cape Coral and Islands market are not necessarily improving. It just looks like it because the month’s supply of inventory has declined. Unlike the rest of the county, which is also seeing lower inventory, the Cape and the Islands have declining sales.

When official sales pricing numbers are released next week, we expect median prices to be down about 8.46% It is hard to imagine we will see upward pricing pressure until we get the monthly supply of homes down. This will occur when the pace of homes picks up. The wild card will be the shadow inventory of sellers who would like to sell but have given up on the idea at today’s prices. We expect more sellers to enter the market in the future as the market improves.

Ellis Team Numbers

I was looking at our team’s sales numbers this year. If everything closes this month as it should, our numbers will be up about 100% from the same time last year. This tells us that the strongest agents with the best marketing and sales experience are taking market share because they are selling in this market. Many agents are struggling and don’t know where to turn. We see experienced agents join teams or switch brokerages in search of answers. Costs are up for Realtors, and buyers are fewer and more difficult to convert. Some agents pay for leads, and those costs are rising or disappearing as programs are changing. Many agents are leaving the business altogether, while others are desperately trying to extend their career by cutting costs. This is not a recipe for sellers achieving Top Dollar for their home.

Want to Sell?

If you’d like to sell in this market, give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call at 239-310-6500 You can also visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free online estimate of your home’s value. We can discuss your needs and talk about the best way to sell your home. Not ready to sell yet? It’s never too early to speak with a professional to help you make better decisions for the future.

Looking to Buy

Buyers have the upper hand right now. Negotiating leverage may be at its highest, so take advantage of lower prices and leverage while you can. Check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com to see all the listings in MLS or call us at 239-489-4042 to speak with an agent on our team that can give you valuable insight.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Today we’re going to make some bold home sold price predictions for the Lee County Florida market in May 2025. Official numbers will not be released until June 23^rd, so do not take these as official. Our internal data has been pretty good about predicting what the official numbers will say, but there can be some variance.

Bold Home Sold Price Predictions

We are predicting median home sale prices in Lee County will be down about 8.46% in May. Officially median home sale prices in April were down 8.2%. So, this is a continuation of that trend. One month does not make a trend, but when you string a few months’ worth of data together, it tells a story.

Home inventory is declining. Pending home sales remained remarkably steady this past week. We expect closed sales to be down by about 3.48% in May. We are seeing declining inventory and declining number of home sales. This tells us that home sellers are taking their home off the market and keeping it. Some will rent while others will try again later. Some home sellers don’t need to sell and do not like the current prices the market is delivering, so they will wait.

Ellis Team Current Market Index

The Ellis Team current market index predicts the forward direction of prices. The number has shot up again the past few weeks after being down, back up to the number it was on April 1^st. Because this is a forward indicator, it’s no surprise that home prices fell in May. The return of a higher CMI is indicative that prices are not rising and there could be some downward pressure moving forward. We are nowhere near the numbers we saw back in November and January, so much of that downward pressure has abated. Nonetheless, some pressure still exists.

Interest Rates

Interest rates have been stubborn. The 10-year treasury note is currently trading at 4.446%. We’ve seen it bounce around for months. When rates drop, buyer activity picks up. 30 year mortgage rates are pegged off of the 10-year treasury note by adding a premium to that amount. This week new inflation readings should come out which could influence the market. Remember, we are writing this article before those numbers are released.

Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Currently we have downward pricing pressure. Interest rate drops may spur increased buyer activity. Increased buyer activity may spur more sellers to sell. Inventory has been declining. The real question is, how many more sellers will place their home on the market when sales activity picks up? We do not believe shadow home sellers will come out of the woodwork until they see home prices rising again, or until their motivation changes. That could be a life event, or a desire for a different home that suits their needs better. We have enough inventory that’s going to take a little while for prices to improve. When more inventory hits, it could delay price gains. Shadow sellers are an unknown quantity.

Wild Cards

We also see many wild cards. The price of oil, the tax rate next year, hurricanes, tariffs, possible military action in Iran, the national debt, and more. So many things could impact on the real estate market, both to the upside and downside. We are positive on the market overall. We just cannot tell you about the timeframe for when prices will rise again due to all the wildcards in play.

If you want to buy or sell, you must always deal in the market of the moment. If you have a property to sell, call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com . If you’re looking to buy, you can check out www.LeeCountyonline.com or call us at 239-489-4042. The Ellis Team is always your best choice for unbiased market information that matters when making an offer.

 Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!