We are already seeing real estate consolidation trends, both at the agent and brokerage levels. As business slows for some agents, they begin looking for alternatives to stay in the business.

 

Making the Switch

Online real estate agents nationwide are asking questions about brokerages. The questions range from who offers the best split, to real estate software provided, to profit sharing. In almost every instance, the inquiring agent production is down, so they start to look around.

Real estate coaches online have chimed in. The answer isn’t which brokerage offers the best software, or the highest split. The answer is, what are you doing to create sales? It won’t matter which brokerage an agent is at if they aren’t doing activities to create sales.

The typical agent wants leads and buyers wrapped up in bows ready to buy. When the market shifts, buyers are more indifferent, and getting them off the fence requires skill, patience, activities, and relationship.

Agents that are doing business understand this, and they are active. The problem is, only about 5-10% of the agents are highly active, communicating with their database, and marketing listings. The rest are struggling and reactive. Consumers don’t always know who these 5-10% are, so they work with an agent until they are disappointed. Agents aren’t the only ones making the switch, consumers are too!

Light Bulb Goes Off

It is at this moment buyers and sellers seek out a higher-level agent. Consumers start asking tough questions. The conversation shifts from how much do you charge to what level of service can I expect from you? Consumers ask to see proof of marketing. They may want to see a list of recent past sales or talk to a few of your past clients. A shifting market is where rubber meets the road, and results matter.

In a normal market, consumers think that all real estate agents are the same. If they all do the same thing, and get the same results, why should they pay more from one versus another. When the market shifts, it exposes agents with fewer skills and marketing, and shines a light on those that produce results.

Brokerages are no different. In the absence of value, agents will switch to another brokerage. The agents not doing any business won’t make a difference, but agents that are producing have value to the brokerage. Losing agents who produce is never a good thing, so brokerages must provide value.

Independent Brokerages

It is getting harder for independent brokerages to compete in a world fueled by large advertising budgets, expensive software, and high lead generation costs from the online portals. Online portals are one of the biggest threats to smaller brokerages for too many reasons to list here. This is why we are seeing many independents retain their name but becoming powered by companies like Keller Williams. In this way, they can retain their name and the way they like to do business and marry it with the advantages of high-tech software, models, and systems. Not to mention joining a large referral network that brings in buyers.

The SW Florida real estate market is steady. Some say it is stagnant and nobody is buying, but the statistics say otherwise. 335 single family homes closed in the last 7 days in Lee County. Somebody is selling those homes.

Real Estate Consolidation Trends

We expect more consolidation and migration to those agents that are advertising heavily and working their database. Sellers will demand it. We see it every shift, and it is happening again. You don’t have to suffer with no showings and no offers. An experienced agent can show you the way.

Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 if you’re thinking of selling your home this summer. We can get your home advertised and sold.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

New Listing

4129 Spotted Eagle Way, Fort Myers Fl

Eagle Reserve

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr, Fort Myers

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd, Fort Myers FL

 

Both housing supply and demand level off in the latest statistics produced by the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.

Last year we saw single family home inventory supply drop from April 25^th to May 2^nd. Some of that could have been expired listings. In 2024, we are seeing a trend of leveling off. Pending sales have remained remarkably steady since February 20^th of this year.

Ellis Team Current Market Index

The current market index stands at 3.05 and has also remained steady. It rose slightly in the last week, but we’ve been watching numbers in the low 3 range since March 12^th. The current market index accurately predicts future price appreciation or reductions going forward.

We finally received some good news on the interest rate front which has led to slightly lower rates. The economic news was bad for employment, which is good news for possible rate cuts later this year. It’s the first good news for future interest rate cuts we’ve received. Wall Street went from betting on no cuts this year to a possible rate cut or two by the end of this year. Inflation numbers have not been good and going in the wrong direction, so betting the farm on one payroll report probably doesn’t make sense. But hey, Wall Street likes optimism wherever it can find it.

Housing Supply and Demand Level

If current housing and supply level remains the same or gets better, coupled with lower interest rates, we could see strengthening in the housing market going into 2025. We are not saying price reductions will suddenly stop as there are still more sellers than buyers. We are saying, once the market chooses a direction, those price reductions will begin working their way through the system and eventually the market will level out.

Like a Train

The housing market is like a train. Once it builds momentum, it takes awhile to brake, or change direction, even if market indicators begin to shift. A train has built up residual energy that must be released before it can brake. If economic indicators suddenly became clear, there would still be price reductions until the market cleared excess inventory.

2025

 2025 could be a year for real estate recovery. Of course, we do not know if the economy will have a soft or hard landing. That outcome will determine how many people still have a job and how many can purchase. Additionally, we do not know if we will have stagflation, which is persistent higher than welcome inflation coupled with low to no growth. If this happens, we may not see a recovery until later 2025 or 2026.

So much economically is unknown. Because of this, nobody can predict what the stock, bond, and real estate markets will do. We can report only what we see, and the good news is the housing supply and demand level is stable and doing well. We’ll be keeping an eye on future economic data and housing statistics, along with the Ellis Team Current Market Index.

Thinking of Selling?

You should call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Brett and Sande can guide you on the latest data. We have the most advanced marketing system in the area, and we’d love to show you how it’s different, and why it’s producing results. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s price instantly.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2552 Keystone Lake Dr

Free Solar-Below Market Interest Rate

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

13916 Lily Pad Cir

Reflection Lakes-Gated Community-Low HOA Fees

People are asking what the Ellis Team 5 Star Marketing Program is and how it’s achieving uncommon results in a shifting market. We’ll tell you a little bit about it, and why it’s different than other marketing.

First off, people need to understand, when the market changes, do not cancel marketing. In fact, sellers need marketing more in a shifting market.  Too many Realtors relied on the portals (Realtor.com, Zillow, Trulia, etc.) to do their marketing. That’s about to change.

Never a Good Idea

 It was never a good idea to rely on the portals, but now it’s critical. We are getting frantic calls from the portals asking us to advertise.  They are changing their programs. Zillow is in the midst of cancelling their Zillow Premier agent program and replacing it with Flex. Flex essentially takes 35-50% of the agent’s commission, so agents have little to no money to spend on advertising. Flex also wants their agents to use their lenders and title companies so they can control the whole transaction.

We prefer to use lenders and title companies we know with a proven track record. We also don’t want to be dependent on a portal who can change the rules at any time, like they are now. The Realtor commission lawsuit is also playing a big part in this. Portals are forced to change, or they will go out of business.

Do you really want an agent who is spending most or all of their advertising money with one portal?

Ellis Team 5 Star Marketing

 The Ellis Team has been big advertisers for years. We’ve tested and found the best way to attract buyers.  We have not spent our money finding sellers and paying large referral fees. Our system has worked so well, we’ve developed a databank of buyers.

But it gets better! We found a way to segment this large database of buyers and advertise to them. In the real estate industry, the average click thru rate is 1-2% on an online ad. By using market segmentation, we’ve been able to achieve over 20%. This tells us not only are we serving up ads people want to see, but we’re also serving it the people most interested in buying what we’re selling.

When you see an ad online for something you don’t care about, you don’t click it. Even if you care, you still might not click.

Let’s say we have a $400,000 dollar listing. Will a million-dollar buyer click to see that ad? The answer is no. When you serve that ad up to everybody, not everyone will click it, including those interested in buying real estate.

Segmented Ad

Advertising to people interested in buying real estate is a targeted ad.  Advertising the home a buyer is specifically interested in is what we call segmented marketing. The Ellis Team 5 Star Marketing program has found a way to do both, targeted marketing and segmented marketing.

Neighborhood Search

We can also identify people searching in certain neighborhoods. Let’s say we list a property in Miramar Lakes, Whiskey Creek, or any subdivision. We can search our database and it will tell us how many leads match the neighborhood. It’s easy for us to advertise our new listing to those buyers actively searching now for homes that match those criteria.

If you’re thinking of selling, or perhaps tried before and your home did not sell, give Sande or Brett Ellis a call. 239-310-6500 Let’s see how we can put the Ellis Team 5 Star Marketing Program to work for you. There’s a reason the Ellis Team has been voted Best in Real estate 11 straight years by News Press readers.

Ellis Team 5 Star Marketing Program Video

 

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-4 PM

8515 Oakshade Cir #101, Fort Myers

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2206 NW 18th Pl, Cape Coral

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

412 Chiquita Blvd N, Cape Coral

2024 Total pending sales equals last year’s numbers. In 2023 Lee County saw 2,254 total pending sales for single family homes, condos, and manufactured homes on March 21, 2023. We track numbers every Tuesday, so this year’s numbers came out March 19, 2024. The current year’s numbers show 2,234, which is pretty close to last year.

The difference though isn’t in the pending sales. It is in the active listings. In 2023 we had 5,458 total active listings across all residential property types for sale. In 2024 we have 10,745 which is almost double the listings.

Roughly, Lee County total pending sales equals 2023 numbers and double the listings. For this reason it is almost impossible for price to rise in this environment.  While official numbers are not out yet as we write this article, we are tracking some interesting unofficial sales numbers in Lee County.

Compare today’s supply-demand vs August Housing Demand Gap.

Unofficial Numbers

Unofficially we can track 976 single family home sales in Lee County through our MLS. The median sales price in February 2024 was $430,000 and the average sales price was $586,665. In 2023 the official sales were 1,024 with a median sales price of $447,500 and an average sales price of $573,104.

We know the official numbers will contain a few extra sales from outside MLS’s that could change these numbers a bit. If our numbers were official, we would say the median sales price is down 3.91% from last year and the average sales price is up 2.37%.

These unofficial numbers are similar to what we have been tracking in recent months, so nothing is startling. The real question is, what will happen to home sales after season?

Last year home sales fell off after May. This is nothing new as they usually do. Last year’s drop-off seemed more severe than it was because prices were also dropping in 2023. The 2^nd half of 2023 just didn’t feel very good to home sellers and agents.

Interest rates were also on the rise in 2023.  In 2024 interest rates seemed to have peaked, and the speculation isn’t around how much higher they may go versus when they will start dropping. This is a very different event than what we saw in 2023, so there is optimism.

Sellers have questions though as buyers may hold off in anticipation of rates going lower someday.  When rates start dropping, will buyers jump, or will they wait for them to keep falling? As the Fed holds off on rate cuts, what will happen with the economy?

CMI

The Ellis Team Current Market Index has actually been improving since January 9^th. We do not publish the index to the public anymore as we reserve that for our clients, but we can say even though inventory is still rising, the index is improving. If we see this number improving through the month of April, we will feel better about the summer market.

Commission Lawsuit

We have seen several stories by the media about the recently proposed NAR Commission lawsuit settlement. Suffice it to say the media does not understand the terms nor the realities of what’s next. If you have questions about the proposal and are considering buying or selling in the coming months, reach out to us for details.  239-310-6500 The public will have questions, and it pays to get advice from those that know versus the media that does not.

Equity Analysis

Could you benefit from an equity analysis on your home? Not only will you learn the value of your home, you’ll also learn when it pays to refinance, buy investment property, and other uses for your money. Our equity analysis tool is insightful and keeps you updated each month on the changes in your equity. It even keeps track of how much you’re paying down your loan and PMI.

Equity Analysis Tool

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. We have the tools to help you make good decisions.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12pm-4pm

11220 Caravel Cir #110 Fort Myers, FL

Open House Sunday 12pm-4pm

8515 Oakshade Cir #101

 

We thought you’d like to see the 2024 housing inventory supply numbers as we start off the new year. Everybody asks, are we in a buyer’s or seller’s market. This data gives us our answer.

Buyers Market?

A seller’s market is anything less than 5.5 months and a buyer’s market is anything over 5.5 months. Currently the Lee County single family 2024 housing inventory supply stands at 5.05 months supply, which keeps us in a seller’s market.

It might feel like a buyer’s market only because of the change we’ve seen in 2023. Back in October we reported a 4.19-month supply, and in July 2023 it was 3.81. In February 2023 it was 2.81. As you can see, the market moved steadily towards a balanced market in 2023 where neither the buyer nor seller had the upper hand.

A few points to remember. I pulled this data January 2^nd. Typically, I wait 10-15 days for all the end of the month sales to come in. By MLS rules they are supposed to be entered within a few days, but I allow for more time. Secondly, there were 282 expired single family home listings in Lee County from Dec 31-Jan 2^nd. Many of these homes will be relisted and added to the inventory totals, which will tilt closer to the balanced market or seller’s market should that occur.

Buyer Activity Increase

We have seen an uptick in showing activity the week after Christmas. This often happens, but it did not last year, for obvious reasons. The fact that mortgage rates have declined, and people are visiting SW Florida again, causes us to be optimistic. We expect interest rates to decline slightly in 2024 and more into 2025.

An uptick in pending sales may offset the expired listings that may re-enter the market in the coming days. Currently we are tracking about 902 closed sales in December compared to 955 in 2022. As we mentioned, all sales may not be entered yet. Either way, we are expecting a decline in year over year sales in December which was par for the course in 2023. We’ve been tracking 2018 closed sales levels closely since May, and in 2018 we closed 901 single family home sales. We feel pretty confident in these preliminary numbers.

December Sales Numbers

Preliminary sales numbers suggest a December median sales price of $400,000 which would be down from December 2022. All signs point to declining home sales and declining home prices for December 2023.

Just because home prices might be down in December doesn’t mean they will stay there. In 2023 interest rates were rising. Recently rates began declining, which could stabilize the market, or infuse fuel to the market in 2024. We do not expect large interest rate swings in 2024. What we do not know is how many sellers will decide to sell in 2024. We saw a steady rise in sellers in 2023, and we anticipate a rise in buyers in 2024. The answer to both ends of that equation will answer for us where this market goes.

In the coming month or so we will finalize where our market ended in 2023, and that is important to track. What it does not tell us is where the market will go in 2024. We believe this will become apparent in the next 8-10 weeks. As always, the Ellis Team will keep you updated.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking about selling, give us a call today. 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande Ellis would love to talk to you about the market, your neighborhood, and what options you have. The most common questions we get are what could we sell the house for now in its present condition and what could we get if we made some improvements? The other is when is the best time to sell? We can help answer those questions.

If you’re just curious about your home’s value, you can get an instant online value now at www.SWFLhomevalues.com.

Happy New Year! Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty with your real estate questions. 239-489-4042

See last week’s article “Property Best Buy List”

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

8815 Oakshade Cir    $325,000

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

4431 Bay Beach Ln Unit 544     $525,000

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr    $400,000

 

 

I want to talk about the difference between salespeople versus order takers. Most are surprised to know that 87% of Realtors fail and leave the business within 5 years. This means that only 13% have been around since 2018.

We often see real estate agents leave the business when the market shifts. 2023 is no exception, and with real estate closings down significantly year to date, we expect more to leave the business when board fees become due at the end of year.

Skills Based Market

The 2023 Southwest Florida real estate market is a skills-based market. Only the best salespeople will survive because there are less transactions to go around. A few years ago, anyone could sell a home because the market drove sales. In many cases, you just had to show up with a blank contract in hand and write it. Buyers and sellers didn’t seek out the best agents because in their mind it didn’t make a difference. They just wanted someone there now! I would argue that did cost some of them, but that’s another story.

Sellers Need Salespeople Versus Order Takers Now

Today, things are different. Homes do not sell in a day, and certainly not with 50 offers each. It takes marketing and salesmanship to get the job done. Agents need to learn to probe deeper and find out what’s going on. When a buyer says no, there might be more to the story. Overcoming an underlying issue that has nothing to do with what the buyer said may make the difference.

Often the buyer’s first objection is not the real objection. Too many times we see agents solving for the objection they heard versus probing for the true objection. When agents spend time and energy solving an objection that isn’t even real, they’ve wasted an opportunity.

Imagine you were playing a game of Find and Seek. If you took the clues down the road on the right and spent all your time there, you’d be disappointed to find out the object was on the road to the left. You would have wasted all your time looking for something that was never there.

Isolate Objections

Buyers don’t intentionally lie. They throw out objections to slow the process down, because they are afraid, or they have not thought enough about what they truly want. A skilled agent learns to isolate the objection. By isolating the objection, you can determine if you chose the right road, or if you need to ask more questions. No sense spending time on the wrong road. It’s hard enough to find solutions on the right road, let alone choosing the wrong road.

This is why sellers today need salespeople versus order takers more than ever. When the going gets tough, 87% get out of the business. When you hire an agent, you want to know three things.

1. Your agent will be there until your house sells, not quit the business.
2. The agent you choose has been through a shifting market like this before and survived.
3. Your agent has a plan to sell your home and overcome objections.

Experienced agents who thrived in up, down, and sideways markets give you your best chance because they have a track record. You have something to grade them by. When you hire a less experienced agent, you hire them because you like them. Liking an agent is very different than hiring the best agent. This is your home, your money, your life, and your success.

Always Call the Ellis Team

Sande and Brett Ellis have worked in the greatest Boom SW Florida may ever see, and the greatest Bust we may ever see, along with every shift in between. Today’s shift is easy peasy for us, because we’ve been here before and we thrive in a shift. We have the skills you need to sell! People skills never go out of style, and they are needed today. Call us at 239-310-6500.

If you’re an agent who is struggling, give us a call. We have sales positions available and leads. Our coaching and leads might just help you stay in this business and save your career.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

8515 Oakshade Cir Unit 101 Fort Myers, Fl 33919

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM $330,000