Category Archives: Fort Myers Beach

Hurricane Ian Real Estate Information Update

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We’re getting a lot of questions from homeowners who don’t know where to turn. Some want to sell but their home has sustained wind or flood damage. Today we like to provide a valuable Hurricane Ian real estate information update to answer some questions.

Hurricane Ian Real Estate Information Update

Insurers are reticent to issue new insurance without an affidavit that the home is free of hurricane related damage. What if the home has wind or flooding damage? Can the home be sold and financed?

Owner Wants to Sell

You may be able to buy a property with damage. Citizens Property Insurance will write coverage on damaged properties as temporary insurance and will simply exclude the damaged items. FHA has a loan called the FHA 203K that will allow a buyer to make repairs after they purchase. In this case we may be able to get a buyer a loan for a damaged home and do the repairs after closing all the while having insurance to satisfy the lender.

Owner Wants to Stay

What if an owner owns a home and it is wiped out or heavily damaged by the flood for more than the $250,000 flood coverage and they have a current mortgage on the property? FHA has another loan program called the FHA 203H that is only available in special disaster situations. It is a 100% LTV loan meaning no equity in the home is needed. The homeowner can finance on top of the current mortgage so they can rebuild or rehab their home without having to sell.

FEMA Resources

FEMA has setup two disaster centers that will help answer insurance type questions as well as tell you what is available through the state and federal government.  Cape Coral and Fort Myers are allowing people to setup trailers on their property while their home is being worked on. They may have trailer assistance available for you as well as a plethora of other options.

Forbearance

Your mortgage company may call you with some payment relief options that can help. Be careful though as forbearance options shouldn’t harm your credit score but it will affect your ability to finance another home for 2-3 years. You would think when the government offers a relief program it wouldn’t harm you in other ways, so be careful. If you have a FNMA or Freddie Mac insured loan the forbearance is 18 months and is added to the end of the loan. Interest does accrue. Private lenders might require the interest be paid in bulk at some point, and that might be too much for some borrowers.

Assignment of Claim

We have been successful in transferring the right under a claim to new buyers who are buying a damaged home. This is different that assignment of benefits whereby a contractor takes over the claim for your home. This is especially useful in cash transactions as many mortgage companies will not finance a new purchase with an existing claim outstanding.

Be Leary of Out of Town Contractors

Out of town contractors come here looking to make a fast buck. Some are reputable and are lifesavers, while others simply collect as many deposits as they can and skip town. Dealing with a reputable local company when you can is wise because they have a local reputation at stake, and often times you know where to find them.

FEMA 50% Rule

Many cities will require damaged homes to adhere to new building codes. Naples is just one example. If the cost of improvements or the cost to repair the damage exceeds 50% of the market value of the building, it must be brought up to current floodplain management.  See Naples Requirements. Look for Lee County and other cities to enact similar requirements.

 

Scammers

Be aware of scammers, both online and at your door or on the phone. Not everybody is who they claim to be. Be careful clicking on links. Scammers today are more clever than ever.

Property to Sell

If you have a property to sell, always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. We are local and we have trusted resources. The Ellis Team cares about our clients and will do what’s right by you. We are not in it to make a fast buck. You can reach us at 239-310-6500 We’re here to help. If you have questions, we might know where to find the answer for you.

Praise God to all that survived, and prayers for the ones that did not!

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data

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Since Hurricane Ian people from all over the country have been asking what effect the hurricane will have on pricing in SW Florida. We studied past hurricane sales pricing data to see what impacts other hurricanes had on pricing so we could draw some conclusions.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data shows the median sales price when Hurricane Charley hit in August of 2004 was $202,600. In the months following the median price went to $197,800 through November, but then the market started taking off once the world recognized we are getting back on track. It’s almost like Hurricane Charley put SW Florida on the map. Prices ended the following year at $322,300.

Hurricane Charley

Keep in mind this was also the runup to the housing boom in SW Florida and other parts of the country. It was fueled by easy-to-get loans and overleverage. Probably none of the runup in prices had to do with Hurricane Charley, but Charley certainly didn’t hold our market back in any way either. We know this because similar markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas increased by similar percentages to what we did in SW Florida.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data Hurricane Charley

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma hit in September of 2017.  The median price of a home back in September of 2017 was $255,000. By the end of that same year that number fell to $238,350. Keep in mind one thing about these statistics.  Some homes had damage and needed repair before they could close, so it could skew the data. We only count homes that officially could close, and in those few short months we closed what we could.

We like to look at longer periods of time, so we looked through the next year for both hurricanes.  By the end of 2018 the median home price was $246,000. Home prices 15 months later were still below what they were when Hurricane Irma hit.

Past Hurricane Sales Pricing Data Hurricane Irma

 

Current Data

So, what conclusions can we draw? One thing we know is that people have been displaced in their current homes. Those people are looking for new housing. Some are looking for temporary housing until their existing home is repaired, and some homes were wiped out and they’ll be looking for permanent housing. The need for rentals is expanding.

It remains to be seen how many displaced homeowners will look to purchase or rent, and how many might just leave the area.

Currently there are 138 less single-family homes on the market now than before Hurricane Ian hit. We expect this number to climb as agents gain access to power and Internet and assess their listings.

When Hurricane Charley hit the market nationwide was about to take off, and it did. When Hurricane Irma hit the economy was just revving up after a long flat growth period and housing hadn’t been affected yet.

With Hurricane Ian, the economy and the housing market were in contraction. Interest rates have risen, and housing had already started a downturn. Our market leveled off in August, but more economic headwinds were on the way.

Conclusions

Our conclusion is Hurricane Ian probably will not help our local real estate market based on past storms and economic conditions. Florida already had a desperate insurance situation pre-Ian, and we expect that to worsen. Building codes may change again, although newer built homes seemed to fare well. Nothing protects against rising water, and they say this was a once in a 500-year storm.

It will be interesting to watch sales numbers as they begin to change over the coming months. Nobody tracks the market like we do, so stay tuned. You can read articles and sales data going back to 2005 on our Blog at https://blog.topagent.com You can find out what your home is worth at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Keep in mind the analysis tool doesn’t know how much damage your home may or may not have. We would need to evaluate your home’s value further to be more accurate.

You can search the MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com, or call us at 239-489-4042 The Ellis Team is here to help. I still don’t have power yet, but we are working hard to answer your questions.

Good luck and stay safe. We’ll get through this together.

Home Sale Prices Rose in August Despite Rising Rates

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Home sales prices rose in August. The median home sale prices rose 16.9% over last year and rose .18% over July. At least it was a positive. Average home sale prices rose 22.4% over last year and 5.09% over July.

Home Sale Prices Rose in August

In 2022 we have noticed that when interest rates rise, home prices haven’t fared as well.  August bucked that trend.  Rates started out at 4.99% in early August and ended about 5.55% at the end of the month.

Home Sale Prices Rose-Will it Continue?

We will be watching September prices closely as rates have risen dramatically. While we are seeing less offers for homes it does not appear that prices are declining right now. We did see some price declines May through July as the market adjusted.

Supply and demand have held for the past 7 weeks or so.  We will be doing a future article on supply and demand in greater detail. Suffice it to say, if supply and demand are holding steady as well has home prices, it will setup an interesting baseline as mortgage rates rise after the September Fed meeting.

Our suspicion is it will be difficult to see rapidly rising prices in an increasing rate environment. Our market has done well to hold onto much of the price gains of the past few years and we will be tested in the next 6 months. We believe the year over year price gains we saw in August of 16.9% and 22.4% are about to change. Last year we saw big price runups from September 2021 to April 2022.  We will begin bumping up against those numbers, and by the time we get to April it will be hard to eclipse those numbers at an appreciable rate.

Many parts of the country have seen buyers scrambling to complete purchases and lock in rates before they go up. It is possible we will see continued demand from buyers attempting to beat the rate increases. The Fed’s mission is to slow the economy, and that starts with housing.  Housing accounts for about 32% of GDP, so how the housing market goes so goes the overall economy.  To quell inflation, they must slow the economy.

Our local real estate market has been resilient in the face of strong headwinds. The question is, will our market stand up to what our Fed must do to lower inflation? That is the $64 million question. While we cannot predict what the economy, or what our local market will do, we will track the statistics and report out to you what the data shows, and the feeling on the streets.

Buying

If you are thinking about buying now may be a good time.  We know of some zero lender fee loans out there that can save you thousands when financing. We can take that savings and buy the interest rate down which also saves on your mortgage payment.

Selling

If you’re considering selling, prices have cooled over the summer but leveled off.  Now might be a good time to take your profits and move on to your next venture.  If you’d like to speak with Brett or Sande Ellis, call us at 239-310-6500 The Ellis Team has been in business over 35 years, so we know how to structure contracts and financing to benefit our clients. Working with agents with experience can make the difference between getting your transaction closed and missing this opportunity.  We’re here to help!

Why Buyers Fire Real Estate Agents

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We decided to do an article on why buyers fire real estate agents because it’s been happening more lately. Here are 6 quick reasons.

Why Buyers Fire Real Estate Agents

Why Buyers Fire Real Estate Agents

  1. Buyers don’t feel listened to. Inexperienced agents like to tell buyers things they know based on their limited knowledge, or things they think the buyer should know. The true art of selling real estate comes when you are confident that you can answer any question the buyer might have, and you ask them things about the buyer. Buyers feel listened to and feel that the agent cares.
  2. Agent is too busy-some agents don’t want to waste time with buyers because not all buyers buy, and they just drive them around for days burning gas. Some agents hand the buyers a list of homes so they can drive through neighborhoods and whittle down the list. Invariably, the buyer ends up working with another agent after driving around.
  3. Buyer price range unrealistic-The agent may feel they cannot help the buyer because the buyer’s requests are unrealistic, so they blow off the buyer. I cannot tell you how many homes we have sold to buyers who later changed their criteria after learning the market. You must let buyers self-discover the market. Of course they don’t know the market when they come here. Often we find they will up their price range or delete some of their requested features once they learn.
  4. The average agent has been in business less than 5 years. They begin to hear an objection from buyers a few times, so they begin to believe all buyers have that same objection. Subconsciously the agent loses motivation because they feel like nobody wants to buy. A common objection buyers say today is they will wait for prices to come down. An experienced agent can point out that even if prices come down higher interest rates will cost the buyer more by waiting. It takes an agent with listening skills and experience with calculating rate scenarios to overcome this objection. It is absolutely in the buyer’s best interest to find a more experienced agent to help them. Until they do, they will keep shopping for agents. The sad thing is, the longer it takes them to find a good agent the more it costs them.
  5. Buyers lose confidence in their agent. Perhaps the agent cannot answer insurance questions or explain the mortgage process. Some agents have a difficult time explaining the contract or knowing what terms the seller might be looking for. Inexperience manifests itself in many ways, and almost all cost the buyer money or the deal. It’s no fun missing out on a home you love or paying for things you don’t need to.
  6. Agents fails to set the table-buyers often don’t know the process. A good agent should explain the process and walk the buyer through it before they ever look at homes. Finding a home is the easy part. Getting the buyer through the maze of tasks, disclosures, contracts, and approvals can be daunting. The buyer and buyer agent must be on the same page. It is incumbent on the buyer agent to educate the buyer on what it takes to buy a home in SW Florida.

If you are considering buying a home in SW Florida, I would suggest sitting down with an Ellis Team agent who can answer your questions. Don’t just hire the first agent you meet at an open house or elsewhere. Seek out an agent that will listen to you and educate you. A good agent won’t ell you anything, rather they will present you with your options.

We can be reached at 239-489-4042 or you can search the MLS for Free at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Let us know how we can serve you.

Expect Large Interest Rate Hike at Next Federal Reserve Meeting

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Expect large interest rate hike at next Federal reserve meeting Sept 21st.  Inflation numbers were released this week and CPI rose .6% over last month and 8.3% over last year. This number came in hotter than expected and left the Fed little choice in raising rates.

Expect Large Interest Rate Hike

 

Most experts now say a .75% hike is certain. Some were hoping for a .5% hike, and still other fear 1% hike as a possibility.  Our bet is on the .75%. The bad news is that persistent inflation may lengthen the time before the Fed can begin lowering rates. Many hoped for lower rates next year.

If our government keeps spending money, the Fed will have to keep raising rates. On the one hand rising rates should stifle economic activity while on the other, more spending adds to the money supply we are trying to slow down. We have competing forces instead of both working together to fight inflation.

National Call

We sit on a national call each week of top agents. This week they reported that housing demand had dropped due to higher interest rates. Nationally, inventory stalled. Over 40% of listings had at least 1 price reduction. When that number gets to 45% it is considered bearish. The average is 30% for those that are wondering.

Pending home sales nationally are down 22% year over year. Showing requests are down 41.2% nationally, and closings are down 17%.

Target Rates

The Fed had set a target rate of 2.25% to 2.5% for 2022, but many Fed governors are now saying they may have to raise that rate to 3.5% to even 4%. The 10 Year note typically will follow the target rate because it is longer duration and helps predict what the economy will do after 1-2 years out.  So far, we have seen the 10-year note creeping up. As we write this article on Sept 13th it sits at 3.432% Remember, 30-year mortgage rates are pegged off of the 10-year note. As we get closer to Sept 21st and future guidance by the Fed, we expect this target could increase, which could increase the yield on the 10-year note. If that happens, mortgage rates will increase, putting further pressure on stock market and real estate market. We expect large interest rate hike later this week.

We expect the stock market to do better later in the year, but we may have some rocky weeks until then. The real estate market may feel pressure until we get ahead of inflation and start to see the downslide.

Local Statistics

Locally listing inventory has also stalled. Closings are down but pending inventory has also stalled. Demand has been persistent, and if we don’t see a major influx of sellers, we should see stable prices going forward. If more sellers decide to pile on to our inventory numbers, it could lead to modestly lower prices as we do not see demand picking up in a rising rate environment.

New Seller Program

The Ellis Team has a new program designed to get sellers Top Dollar and sell quickly. Call Brett or Sande Ellis for details 239-310-6500. The program is so good it has several patents at the US Trademark Office, and we are pleased to be able to bring this program to our area.

Or, if you’re just curious about your home’s property value, or would like to track it over time, check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com It will be interesting to see how continued rising rates will affect the market.

If you have real estate questions, we’ve got answers. Give us a call. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty, your local market experts.

2022 Housing Market Stalls Out in SW Florida

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The SW Florida 2022 housing market stalls out in many categories. Closed sales and pending sales are down. Let’s take a deeper look at home prices and inventory levels.

2022 Housing Market Stalls Out

 

2022 Housing Market Stalls

The average price of closed single family home sales in Lee County fell by 4.1% this year. The median price has risen 1.57%. If you look at the graph it is plain to see that home prices have stalled out.

Home and condo inventory levels have also stalled out the past 4 weeks, holding steady around 3,180 homes and 959 condos on the market. Ironically, there has been a direct correlation between the housing inventory levels and closed sale prices.

Inventory levels are a direct result of supply and demand. Sometimes more listings hit the market and the demand is so high the market gobbles them up.  Other times demand is less than supply.  For about four months we saw supply outpacing demand, therefore inventory grew. It not only grew, but it also doubled in a short time period.

Inventory Stalls

Thankfully inventory levels have stalled out, and so has the pricing. Home prices are down from their peaks in June and July. Unofficial numbers we have studied in MLS suggest home prices may have gone up slightly in August. This is unofficial because not all home sales may have been reported as of Sept 6th, and there could be a few sales outside of our local MLS that could affect the numbers.

Unofficial numbers suggest around 1,130 closings in August. For perspective, July saw 1,168 officially.

At any rate, while an uptick in August, it is not a significant rise. We also caution people not to focus on any given month. We like to look at trends. The trend we are seeing now is that the 2022 housing market stalls out in SW Florida in several categories.

We are returning to a normal market, which is healthy. Of course, nobody knows what will happen with the economy or interest rates going forward. What we do know is this market is very steady. May buyers fear the market is going to go down. We can state the market has already gone down and buyers may have missed it.

Some sellers have missed it too. The question on everyone’s mind is, where do we go from here? Nobody knows for certain, but we can say the market has acted rationally through this transition and there is no reason to believe it won’t again if circumstances change. We don’t have a crisis market. We have a market sensitive to interest rates and economic fluctuations, and that’s a good thing. It means the market is healthy and predictable depending on what economic conditions persist.

New Home Selling Program

The Ellis Team will be rolling out a new program for home sellers. This program is proven to get sellers Top Dollar and their home sold quickly. Stay tuned for details. If you are thinking of selling, you can call Sande or Brett at 239-310-6500 to get on the schedule for this new program. We’ll be happy to view your home and go over the details of the program.

If you’d like to check out your home value, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com You can track each month whether your home is going up or down in value.

If you have real estate questions, our team is here to help. Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042, the Real Estate Authority in SW Florida!

Marry the House and Date the Rate

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Home prices have declined recently so we are telling our buyers to marry the house and date the rate. We don’t see major price declines going forward because we have a housing production deficit that has kept supply at bay.

Marry the House and Date the Rate
Interest Rate Forecast – August 2022

Back in 2005 we had an oversupply of homes. Today we have an undersupply. Rising rates have made homes less affordable than they were 6 months ago but it doesn’t change the fact that we are short on housing inventory. For this reason, we do not see home prices declining off the charts.

The Ellis Team Current Market Index has leveled off the past 4 weeks showing stabilization in the market. For those who do not remember, the Ellis Team Current Market Index accurately predicts the future direction of the real estate market.

We’ve written how real estate is a great hedge against inflation and historically a better investment than the stock market. The sooner people get into a home the quicker that home can start working for them financially. While none of us like the fact that rates have risen, we cannot change that. We can lock-in a home to protect ourselves financially and refinance the home when rates go down later. We need a place to live anyway.

New Program

FNMA predicts that interest rates will average 4.5% next year and fall to about 4.4% in the 2nd half of the year. We have a program whereby a buyer can purchase a home today from us and refinance later when the rates go down with zero lender fees. This saves the borrower so much money on interest and in closing costs when they refinance.

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams also has a program that will save home buyers closing costs when they purchase and get a mortgage. We can offer that same zero lender fee loan on the purchase.

As inflation goes on the cost of building a new home is not going down. We know the nation has underproduced housing for over a decade. It makes sense to get into a home sooner rather than later, even if the rates are higher today than what they might be next year.

Marry the House and Date the Rate

Find the home you want to marry. It’s yours. You own it.  The rate you can date. We can change that out anytime along the journey. Our team of buyer specialists can help you find a great home. We are still in a seller’s market, so the best homes go fast. Inventory has risen since February, but it has leveled off in recent weeks.

If you’re thinking of selling your home someday you might want to keep track of its value over time. Our Free home valuation tool will tell you your home’s value each month, so you can track it over time. Simply go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com Type in your address and our system will email you the new value each month. Pretty cool!

If you’re thinking of buying, our MLS search website is the Best out there. Go to www.LeeCountyOnline.com and search away. You can even save your search and the system will email you new properties that match your criteria.

Or you can call us at 239-489-4042 and speak with Brett or Sande or a member of our team. We’re not here to sell you anything, only present you with your options.

Good luck, happy shopping, and Happy Labor Day weekend!

Home Prices Fell 16.4% From May Peak

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Average home prices fell 16.4% from May Peak. Last year home prices fell 10.5% in a similar period April through July. Essentially average home prices fell 5.9% more this year than last year around this time.

Home Prices Fell 16.4% From May Peak

 

Home Prices Fell 16.4% From May

I read a lot of headlines that talk about how home sales have fallen but prices are still going up.  I would argue that home prices are not going up and whoever wrote the headline doesn’t understand our market.

It is true that median home prices are up 16.7% over last year and average home prices are up 17.4%. That doesn’t tell the whole story.  Those are year over year numbers, and they are declining each month because homes are not going up currently. We saw over $100,000 median price gain from September 2021 to April 2022. We saw $188,000 gain in average price from September 2021 to May 2022.  Since April/May it’s been downhill.  We are still up year over year because most of the gains happened from September on.

The real numbers will begin to show in October once official September numbers are released.  From this coming September to April, we will get an excellent idea of how the market is doing. We can already see home prices are down slightly, but to calculate how much of that is from seasonality is hard to do.

What seems absurd is the fact some people believe home prices are still appreciating. Listing inventory has tripled since February, pending sales are down, and closed sales are down. This is not a sign of an appreciating market.  Home buyers know it, and home sellers know it too.  I appreciate the media putting a good spin on the market, but quite frankly we don’t need a good spin.

The market is what it is, and always will be. You cannot spin the market into something it is not. When inventory is rising it means supply is outpacing demand. When inventory is falling it means that buyers are scooping up properties faster than they come on the market.

Simple Law

We have an excellent market, if you price your home fairly and market it aggressively.  This simple law works in all markets, up, down, or sideways. Hire the best Realtor you can find, market the property for full exposure to the largest number of buyers, and price it fairly. I’ve seen sellers miss the best seller’s market we’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen buyers miss out on the best buyer’s market we’ve ever seen.

Buyers and sellers typically miss the market out of greed. The truth is, over just about any 10-year period real estate is a good investment. Don’t get too greedy and you will never miss the market. Sure, real estate can go down in the short term. In the long term, real estate has done well, and even better than the stock market.

Don’t believe everything you read or hear. Consult a local market expert. While we are experts in this market, we would never purport to be an expert in another market. Listening to someone from another state about how to negotiate or price a home locally doesn’t make sense.

Always go deeper than the headline. Sometimes the headline doesn’t match the content of the story. Ask yourself if the data makes sense and seek out numerous opinions if you are unsure. When you hire the best, you tend to get much better results. This is true in any profession.

Always Call the Ellis Team

If you are thinking about selling your SW Florida property, give the Ellis Team a call. We have the knowledge, experience, and marketing muscle to expose your home to the largest audience. 239-310-6500 Find out if your home is going up or down in value online for free!

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Housing Inventory Stalls Briefly Before Reaching New Highs

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Both condo and single-family housing inventory stalls briefly before reaching new highs this past week.  We noticed.  We noticed the last few weeks pending sales increased as interest rates were declining.

Single Family Housing Inventory Stalls Briefly Before Reaching New Highs

Housing Inventory Stalls Briefly Before Reaching New Highs

Since we last posted about rates going under 5%, they have since gone back up to around 5.25% Sure enough, pending sales dropped a little and inventory increased again.  Is this a direct correlation to interest rates? We cannot say for sure, but it is interesting.

We do know that interest rates play a part in affordability. Affordability affects not only what a buyer can pay for a home, but also their emotional outlook on finances in general. We did see some contracts from families trying to get into a certain school zone and that could have played a part as well.

Condo Housing Inventory Stalls Briefly Before Reaching New Highs

The general consensus is mortgage rates will rise in the short term, although the long-term effect is less clear. Buyers would be better off purchasing sooner than later if possible. Even if you don’t like today’s rate, you might like tomorrows worse. We have a saying “You marry the house and date the rate.”

Marry the House and Date the Rate

Find the home that matches your needs, and you can afford today. Later on, if and when rates come down you can refinance to a lower rate.

Listings that are priced correctly and marketed well are seeing offers. Gone are the days where we see 50 offers on every property. We still have a good market with buyers motivated to buy. Buyers today cannot afford as much as they could 6 months ago. The good news for buyers is the massive price increases have stopped. We are not seeing rapid rise in prices. In fact, home prices have leveled off or declined slightly. It is hard to calculate because this time of year usually brings a slight dip due to seasonality.

The US economy is holding up well. Bear in mind, there are still trillions of dollars floating around out there, so a few interest rate hikes wasn’t going to kill the economy.  Our government just signed a deal for even more money flowing into the economy, so when the Fed pulls back it’s treasury security buybacks it may not hurt as much.

Experience Matters

I just saw a stat from the National Association of Realtors that said 91% of Realtors have not sold a home when interest rates were over 4% and days on market is over 45 days. So many agents in the business today just joined in the last few years and have no experience working in a normal market. It’s no surprise that so many agents are leaving the business.  Last year you couldn’t write offers fast enough.

Today it’s back to knowledge, experience, and marketing muscle. I predict thousands of new agents will get licensed because they don’t know any better. They don’t realize how many agents are leaving because real estate is hard. This business always has room for dedicated people who are willing to work hard and learn. Most agents get into the business for the flexibility, which means the ability to take off.

When you are interviewing agents to buy or sell, make sure they are dedicated to staying in this business, and have the experience working through market shifts. If not, you could end up paying for their inexperience. Their learning becomes your experience.

There is an old saying “What happens when the guy with experience meets the guy with money? The answer is the guy with experience ends up with the money and the guy with the money ends up with the experience.”

The commission you pay is for your agent’s years of experience. Saving money with an inexperienced agent could leave you with the experience and out much more money than what you hoped to save.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. Visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS and www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s current value.

Good luck and happy selling!

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

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Inflation may help home buyers in the long run.  Here is why. Currently home buyers can borrow right now at less than the cost of inflation.

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Typically, the Fed wishes to raise interest rates higher than the cost of inflation to help lower inflation. Right now, a borrower can get a 30-year loan in the low 5% range. Inflation has been raging at over 9%. That’s almost a 4 percent spread between the cost of borrowing and inflation.

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Secondly, we know that real estate appreciates long term at higher than the cost of inflation. See our article back in May titled “Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times”

If housing appreciates faster than inflation, and you can borrow currently at less than the cost of inflation, it makes sense to buy what you can today.  This is a great long-term strategy. Unfortunately, most people worry about the short-term. Rising inflation hurts the economy and purchasing power, and this leads to pain in the short-term. The Fed’s mission is to quell demand, and that is true for all spending.

Housing can be hurt in the short-term and this can put negative pricing pressure on homes. Home prices could come down some, but keep in mind we have a shortage of homes being built, and that is getting worse because builders are slowing down building in the middle of a recession. Long-term it will be very hard to keep housing prices down because the demand will be there when interest rate pressure eases.

Risky Strategy

Some buyers will try to time the market for when home prices fall. The problem with this strategy is if home prices do fall some, interest rates could also rise, which will negate all benefits of waiting. Higher borrowing costs can outweigh any potential price savings. Because borrowing rates are far below inflation, now is a good time to jump on that rate.

We are still seeing many buyers moving to Florida. We are also seeing some buyers moving out of Florida as their employers call them back into work. Remote work has been good for Florida real estate, but that party is ending for some companies.

What will be fascinating to watch will be how many companies decide to relocate to Florida in the coming years. On a regular basis we hear of more and more companies making the move to Florida. While companies may call workers back to the office, more of those offices could be in Florida in the future.

Inflation is hard on everyone. To tamp it down, the Fed is forced to do some awful things. Sadly.  Doing nothing is worse than cracking down on inflation, so something must be done. We believe lowering the M2 money supply would do far better than simply raising rates, but this is where we are.

The labor market is showing signs of weakness going forward. Once this occurs, the other obstacle will be the price of oil. Many believe oil could rebound to $150/barrel. This will not help inflation if this occurs.

Inflation adds to the cost of everything, so one day when construction does pick up again, presumably it will be at higher prices due to higher costs. Some commodities like lumber are decreasing, but petroleum goes into so many things like clothing, roofing, roads, etc. The next 30-90 days will be pivotal for oil prices, so keep an eye on that.

Smart Money on Real Estate

The bottom line is, with all the uncertainty out there, real estate may not be a bad bet. Sure, home prices could rise or fall.  In the long-term, those that own real estate are far better off than those who don’t. Currently you can leverage today’s rates to increase long-term value.

People always talk about borrowing costs in relation to today’s purchasing power. It might be time to think about long-term purchasing power and how to accomplish that. This moment in time might be that window.

Search the MLS like a Realtor at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Check your home’s property value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com or call Brett or Sande at 239-310-6500

Good luck and Happy Selling!

 

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

206 SE 1st Pl Cape Coral Florida

Cape Coral Open House
206 SE 1st Pl

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

12157 Lucca St Unit 201 Fort Myers Florida

Sunday Open House
12157 Lucca St Unit 201