The real estate market is constantly evolving, and today’s conditions demand a nuanced approach with shifting market pricing strategies. Gone are the days of simply listing above comparable sales and waiting for a bidding war. In a shifting market, strategic pricing is crucial to attracting buyers, minimizing time on the market, and ultimately, maximizing your return on investment.

Shifting Market Pricing Strategies

Before diving into specific strategies, it’s essential to understand the current market dynamics. Are interest rates rising? Is inventory increasing? Are buyer preferences changing? Keeping a pulse on these factors is paramount. Rising interest rates, for example, reduce buyer purchasing power, making price sensitivity even more critical. Increased inventory means more competition for sellers, requiring a sharper pricing edge.

The Pitfalls of Overpricing

The temptation to overprice is understandable. You love your home, and you want to get the best possible price. However, overpricing can be a costly mistake. It can lead to:

• Limited Buyer Interest: Buyers often start their search online, filtering by price. An overpriced home may not even appear in their search results.
• Extended Time on Market: The longer a home sits on the market, the less attractive it becomes to potential buyers. It can create a perception that something is wrong with the property.
• Price Reductions: Eventually, an overpriced home will likely require a price reduction. However, initial price reductions can make buyers wonder if further reductions are coming, potentially leading to lower offers than if the home had been priced correctly from the start.
• Stigmatization: Nobody wants the home that has been sitting on the market for an extended period.

The Power of Strategic Pricing

So, what are the keys to pricing your home effectively in a shifting market?

• Accurate Comparable Market Analysis (Comps): Your real estate agent will conduct a thorough analysis of recent sales of similar properties in your area. This is the foundation of sound pricing. Pay close attention to the “days on market” for comparable sales. If similar homes are selling quickly, it indicates a stronger market.
• Consider Market Trends: Beyond comparable sales, analyze current market trends. Are prices generally trending upward or downward in your area? Are interest rates rising or falling?
• Evaluate Your Home’s Condition and Features: Is your home updated and well-maintained? Does it have desirable features that are in demand? Factor these elements into your pricing strategy. A move-in-ready home will command a higher price than one needing significant repairs.
• The Psychological Impact of Pricing: Consider pricing in a bracket. Pricing brackets exist and knowing where they are is paramount. This can make your home appear more attractive to buyers searching within a specific price range.
• Don’t forget the importance of a skilled real estate agent: They have access to the latest market data, understand the nuances of pricing in your specific area, and can provide invaluable guidance throughout the selling process.

Adapting to a Buyer’s Market

If the market is shifting in favor of buyers, you may need to adjust your strategy. This might involve:

• Pricing Competitively: Be prepared to price at or slightly below comparable sales to attract attention.
• Offering Incentives: Consider offering incentives such as paying for some of the buyer’s closing costs or including extras.
• Highlighting Value: Emphasize the unique features and benefits of your home.
• Marketing: When there are fewer buyers, you have to spend more to find them.

The Bottom Line

Pricing your home in a shifting market requires careful consideration, market knowledge, and a strategic approach. By understanding current trends, analyzing comparable sales, and working closely with a skilled real estate agent, you can position your home for success and achieve your real estate goals. Remember, the right price is the one that attracts buyers and gets your home sold in a timely manner, maximizing your return in today’s dynamic market.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 for a consultation about your home or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free Instant online home value estimate.

Today’s Short for the Day

The Future of Real Estate March 1

See Last Week’s Article “National Home Prices Trend Higher“

Official November sales have been released and so far, we can report 4^th quarter closed home sales down in SW Florida. We started the year off well. September is when we noticed the largest drop off for the year.

4th Quarter Closed Home Sales

Some people blame the election for slow sales in the 4^th quarter. Buyers certainly were holding back during that time period, and that was a common reason given. However, the hurricanes may have played a part too.

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on September 26^th. While offshore to SW Florida, Helene brought flooding and uncertainty about where she was going to go days before she hit. Only a few weeks later, Hurricane Milton made landfall on October 9^th in the Tampa area. Milton came closer to SW Florida than Helene did, and the flooding seemed to be worse.

Both these storms did two things. They impacted some closed sales, and they made buyers think twice about where they wanted to live. Some SW Florida residents grew weary and decided to leave the state altogether. Others decided to move inland more, avoiding the hassle and cost of flooding, and perhaps the higher cost of insurance.

Election

And then there was the election. Nobody knew how that was going to turn out, but people had feelings on both sides. People hold off large purchases when there are unknowns, and typically resume their life when unknowns become known. Regardless of who won, we believe people would go on with their lives. The fear of the unknown is often worse than the reality of the known, even if the desired outcome was not achieved. Now people can move on and deal with facts, even if they do not agree.

Interest Rates

The Fed just cut rates another quarter percent. This hasn’t translated to lower mortgage rates though. In fact, mortgage rates have climbed since the Fed began cutting rates. Many buyers have been waiting for lower rates. Because rates have not cooperated, this may have stalled some home buyers’ decisions.

Next week we’ll have some interesting insight into what buyers may ultimately decide in 2025, and how this could affect home sales. It’s an opinion you probably haven’t read anywhere else, so stay tuned.

Selling Your Home?

Selling a home today requires three things.  Advanced marketing. You’ve got to find a way to make your home stand out. With almost 7,700 single family homes on the market in Lee County, the marketing must work. Secondly, it must be priced correctly. The unfortunate thing is some correctly priced homes still do not sell. Again, marketing matters. Lastly, your Realtor needs advanced data analytics. How do you know where your home needs to be priced if you don’t have analytics on the market?

This isn’t a price it and forget it type of market. The market is changing daily, and sellers need to keep up with the data. Knowing exactly what the market is doing helps you keep one step ahead of other sellers. Remember, your competition isn’t the buyer. It is all the other sellers competing for the same buyers as you.

We hope this weekly article helps you stay attuned to the market. For more advanced analysis, contact Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We can guide you through the data and marketing maze and get your home sold. When the market makes a move, it pays to know before everyone else. Most sources report the numbers a month or more after they occur, then react. The Ellis Team studies the market daily and provides guidance.

Or, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for instant automatic valuations. Computers aren’t perfect, but they are fun to track and do offer some insight. Call Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis for the inside scoop when a computer just won’t do.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!

The Ellis Team current market index predictions for the 1^st quarter of 2025 are in and we are seeing some mixed signals. Historically the current market index has been an accurate forecaster of future prices in the SW Florida Real Estate market.

Current Market Index Predictions

Because the index is a leading indicator, the resulting prices lag the index number. As you can see from the graph, the index number has been rising in the past few years. Accordingly, home prices have been falling for the same period. Sometimes it takes a few months for the resulting prices to move. The index trend is still upward, so we would expect home prices to come under pressure moving forward.

Seasonality

One exception to the model is seasonality. Traditionally our higher sales in SW Florida occur in or just after season. The underlying index numbers may point to lower future home prices, but they sometimes have to wait for the seasonal sales to complete. A drastic rise in the current market index can offset seasonality, but so far we’ve only seen a slight to moderate uptick in the index.

Going back decades, the index moves were more dramatic, and we saw prices fall dramatically when the index said they would.

In the past few weeks, we’ve written about the Inventory Sales Gap Metric along with the Supply-Demand chart and the Months Supply of Inventory graph. When we combine those data sets along with the Current Market Index Predictions, the picture becomes clear. We believe November median home sales prices in Lee County will be down about $12,000 from last year. Additionally, the number of closings may be down by about 90 sales as well. We won’t know for certain until official numbers are released later this month.

January

Two things typically happen in January. Showings begin to pick up after about January 15^th and stay steady for the season, and listing inventory increases too. Many SW Florida property owners place their property for sale in season, thinking that is the best time to sell. The truth is, higher priced buyers are here in season, but that only matters if the listing is priced correctly. Additionally, by waiting until January, more sellers are in competition with each because they all waited.

This past week the Ellis Team placed 6 properties under contract. Showing activity has definitely picked up in the last two weeks, but not on all properties. There may be less buyers here in December, but the buyers that are here tend to be serious. In January there may be more lookers, but it doesn’t mean they will all buy in January. Many are just beginning the buying process, and some take a few years to finally decide to make the move.

Winning Strategy

If your goal is to sell in 2025, you need two things. Hire the Best Realtor you can find, and price it properly. No matter how much your agent advertises your property, if the buyer doesn’t see the value, it will not sell. Not all agents market the same. Each will have their spiel about why their marketing is effective. If you are considering selling, it pays to interview the Ellis Team at Keller Williams 239-310-6500. Hiring the wrong Realtor can cost you thousands, and it could cost you the sale entirely. Talk to Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis and we can discuss your needs and what it will take to get your home sold in a changing market.

Knowing exactly what the market is doing combined with the best marketing and experience leads to better outcomes. Nobody studies the market like we do, and we’ve been voted Best in SW Florida 12+ years by News Press readers. That is not by accident.

We look forward to hearing from you. Or check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com for instant online home price valuation models.  Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Home prices remain flat as home sales dip. October median home price in Lee County was unchanged at $400,000, the same as last year. The average sales were down 3.2% to $530,281 in 2024, down from $547,676 last year. We prefer to use the median price as it’s less susceptible to high or low sales influencing the number.

Total single-family homes closed were down 13.6% in October. 2024 is tracking to be one of the lower sales volume years, and a sign of how unhealthy the economy is in 2024.

Interest Rates

Interest rates fell at the end of last week slightly, which would be a welcome sign if they continue. The talk of government cutting spending is welcome news to the bond market. It’s almost as if the bond market wants to believe the government can cut spending, but given their track record the markets are hedging their bets.

Additionally, inflation is still too high, but new data will be coming out in the next few weeks. PCE is due out November 27^th, but this article is written on November 25^th ahead of that report. If PCE comes in at .2% or less look for interest rates to lower. If it comes in higher, we might have to wait for rates to come down further.

Inventory

SW Florida inventory is rising. Pending sales have been slow, although slightly better in the last week. New listings are outpacing new pending sales by a wide margin, which leads to increased inventory. High inventory is one reason home prices remain flat. With the election behind us we hope that buyers will begin to focus on their real estate goals heading into 2025.

Lower interest rates may help get some buyers off the fence if they occur. Season is near, and already winter is hitting northern states with a fury. Early winters usually spur people’s interest in Florida.

Flood Insurance Update

In case you missed it, FEMA has decided to place Fort Myers Beach on probation. This means they lose their 25% discount. Essentially flood insurance just increased 25% on the beach. Probation also means they could lose the flood insurance program altogether if they don’t make more changes. This probation could last up to 2 years before rate discounts would apply, if they qualify.

How will flood insurance rates affect property sales on Fort Myers Beach? We do not know. All we can say is it’s unfortunate as they have worked hard to maintain that discount. It may not be the end of the world, but it’s never good when costs increase that much so suddenly.

Best Search Site

Where can you go to find the best deals in SW Florida? www.LeeCountyOnlinie.com is the best place to search. Not only can you search all the homes, but you can save searches so that new properties matching your criteria will be emailed to you when they arrive. It’s like a store sending you Black Friday deals tailored just for you, all year long. Give it a try and let us know what you think.

Of course, you can always reach us at 239-489-4042. We have all the technology, but there’s no substitute for speaking with a live person that will listen to your needs and work with you to accomplish your goals. AI is nice, but we think in the end most people will want to work with a human they can trust. Our team looks forward to working with you.

After you’re done shopping all those Black Friday deals, check out what our SW Florida real estate market has to offer. There are some deals out there, and the best time to buy is when there is product on the shelves. The worst time to buy is when the shelves are bare. It’s a good time for buyers right now.

Good luck, and Happy Shopping! Let us know if we can help you.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

2513 SE 24th Ave Cape Coral FL 33904

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Denninghton Rd Fort Myers FL 33913