September 2024 - Fort Myers Real Estate and Homes For Sale

Lee County single family August home sale prices declined 3.9% from last year. Median home prices were also down $5,000 month over month from July as well.

Median home prices peaked this year in April at $425,000 and are down to $390,000 now. Some of that is seasonal. Many agents are complaining that homes sales are down, but actually, new pending sales are up 1.2% over last year. Of course, last year was a small number as interest rates were rising and sales fell off in the second half of the year.

Listing Inventory Gone

Something amazing happened this month. In July there are 8,054 single family homes listed officially on the market in Lee County. This month the number stands at 6,628. We believe there could be a problem with the official numbers because the numbers we track in MLS have actually gone up by 142 homes, not down 1,426 homes.

The official numbers forced the months supply of inventory down to 5.7 months supply, down from 7 months in July. We believe the months supply of inventory is 5.37 months, and that number has not changed much since August when it stood at 5.39 months.

Don’t believe the change in data. Official numbers may be coming into closer alignment to what we track, or they were missing some external MLS data for August.

Closed Sales

Closed sales were up 4.8% over last year. August 2024 sales were 1,225 compared to 1,169 last August.

It is clear home prices are still under pressure. Since the Fed lowered rates by half percent, we have not seen much change in mortgage rates. If anything, they have risen a bit. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the rate the Fed sets but can be influenced by market conditions which cause the Fed to make changes.

Economic Conditions

Economic conditions are still worsening, and this is why the Fed has been able to cut rates. The Fed is hoping to cut rates such that the economy has a soft landing all the while protecting against inflation. The Fed’s hands have been tied because the government has been spending so much money, and raising rates was the only way to tame the labor market in hopes of taming inflation. This is why Real Wages have declined. If the government spent less, we could have lower rates and paychecks would go further because inflation would be in check.

This is not the world we live in today, so don’t expect rates to go back to almost free. Rates could see a 5 in front of it in 2025. If rates get back in the 4’s, that would be about the best we could hope for someday. It really depends on inflation and the strength of the dollar.

Seminars

How will future rate cuts and economic conditions affect the SW Florida real estate market? The Ellis Team plans to host several seminars this Fall which will help homeowners, and homebuyers alike make better decisions based upon market data and facts. Put politics aside and let the data guide your decisions. Watch for info on our Blog at https://blog.topagent.com

You can track your home’s value over time at www.SWFLhomevalues.com each month our site will send you an updated analysis of your property. It’s fun to track them over time.

You can always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We’d love to speak with you and answer your questions one on one, or feel free to attend one of our seminars.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Hurricane Helene Update

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Single family home seller price reductions average 3.21% since June. This past week they averaged 2.88% while the week prior averaged 3.65%

We also track how many homeowners are reducing their price each week. Last week we had 483 reductions compared to 604 the week before. The week of April 16^th was the highest with 911 single family homes in Lee County reducing their price.

Data

What does all this data mean? With approximately 6 or months supply of homes on the market, depending on price range, more homes are coming to the market than selling. Homeowners are competing against other sellers for the best buyers. If a seller brings their property to market at a price the market accepts, it should sell. If the market rejects the price, sellers are choosing to adjust to the market because they wish to sell rather than keep their home.

Of course, some sellers would rather keep their home if they don’t get a price they want. That’s a nice position to be in. However, sometimes keeping a home and watching the prices go down can be disheartening, even for those that don’t have to sell.

Stock Market

Take the stock market for instance. Most people who have retirement accounts don’t need to sell. They’re investing for the long haul. Just the same, people don’t like investing in stocks that aren’t performing to their needs. In these cases, people typically sell and adjust their portfolio with investments they believe better suits their needs. They don’t need to sell, but they choose to sell and invest in something else.

Homeowners should not sell just because their home value is going down. Holding onto a property that no longer serves your needs does not always make sense either. Some people hold onto a property they no longer want until its value goes back up to a desired level. However, the property they would replace the underperforming property with might also go up, wiping out any advantage of holding a property that no longer suits their needs.

Emotional Decision

Real estate more than stocks becomes an emotional investment. People live in houses and build memories, so selling isn’t as easy as unloading a stock because of the emotional ties. It’s easier to make a business decision with stocks at times than it is with real estate.

Real estate has advantages though, because unlike a stock, you can live in a home or rent it out. If the price drops, you can choose to stay in the home, especially if you cannot afford to sell. Some people wouldn’t qualify for a new mortgage, so it’s wise to stay where they are until their financial situation changes.

Consult with a Professional

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty have consulted with thousands of homeowners over the years. We can help you evaluate your options from an objective level and point out the pros and cons of making a move. We have resources that may help you and may think of things you haven’t considered. Our job is not to sell you but work with you to find a solution that makes sense for your family, even if that means staying for a while.

Give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call 239-310-6500 and let’s talk. If you do decide to sell, we can help you decide on a pricing strategy. Our marketing plan is fantastic, and our family working with your family is a winning team! Or track your home value online at www.SWFLhomevalues.com. We’ll keep tracking the seller price reductions average and monitor when this number changes significantly, hopefully for the better.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

4768 Crested Eagle Ln Fort Myers, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL

Local housing inventory supply declined slightly in September, down from 5.39 months in August. Let’s breakdown which price ranges went down and why.

Housing Inventory Supply Declined

Everything $600,000 and up declined in inventory supply this past month. Sales went down in each of the three price ranges, but listing inventory declined even more. This tells us that more sellers simply took their homes off the market rather than sell in today’s market.

The $500k-$600k market increased in supply ever so slightly. Closed sales remained the same while listing inventory went up by four homes.

Best Performing Price Range

The $400-$500k market declined in supply. In this case, listings went down, and sales went up. This is the only price range on the chart that can make that claim.

The $300-$400k range saw listings jump by 105. The good news is sales jumped 66 to help offset some of the increase.

Worst Performing Price Range

The less than $300k range saw an increase in listings and a decrease in closed sales.

Based on these statistics, we can say the best performing price range this past month was in the $400-$500k range. The worst performing range for the month was the less than $300k range. If you are a seller in either of these two ranges, you might be feeling gratitude or pain.

In general, lower priced homes are more sensitive to external market conditions. In July, 36.6% of homes sold locally were paid for in cash. This means that 73.4% were financed.

The Fed

The Fed has purposely raised interest rates to cool the economy. They explicitly said they had to cool the job market to tame inflation. Statistics have shown they were able to cool the job market. The hope is the Fed will begin lowering rates starting this month and into the Fall. We could be dealing with a slumbering labor market into next year as lower rates will take time to work their way through the economy.

Shadow Inventory

Remember all those sellers that took their property off the market? How many of those will come back on the market in 2025? We just do not know. We suspect if the real estate market were to ever heat up in the next few years the shadow inventory would present itself and tame price appreciation.

Interest ratesWe are not expected to drop fast. If the Fed does drop rates fast, it means our economy is in worse shape than predicted, and this would not help the real estate market.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking of selling, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Sande and Brett are here to answer your questions. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant value on your home and track it over time. The sooner you start, the more data you will have.

Thanks for Voting

Thanks for voting the Ellis Team the Top Team in Fort Myers, and the Best Agent in Cape Coral! We appreciate the confidence News Press readers place in us, and we are grateful.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

The Ellis Team is projecting home closing activity in Lee County to be somewhere in the vicinity of 14,109 for 2024. You might ask, how did you pick that number? Was it a wild guess?

Without boring you with a complex mathematical computation, basically we compared year to date sales with previous years and extrapolated a percentage of where we are this year compared to previous years. We then looked at averages and compared economic climates for those years and did our best to make a prediction.

Projecting Home Closing Activity

There is absolutely no way our number will be correct. However, if it is even close, 2024 would be the 7^th best year on record, and the 4^th best year on the chart.

We hear agents saying how dead the market is, and nothing is selling. Statistically that’s not true. It may seem like nothing is selling if you have listings that are not selling. Through July more homes have closed in 2024 than 2023. I can already track through MLS about as many closings for August and we know not all sales are in yet.

Economy

We do know the economy is slowing down, and high interest rates are having their effect on buyers. However, we are expecting interest rates to begin declining starting this month. In fact, the mortgage markets already have begun their decline. Add in sellers buying rates down for buyers and there is light for home sales to remain steady.

Election

We have heard many buyers say they are waiting for the election. Somebody is going to get elected, and people are still going to need housing after the election. If you live in Washington DC, I could see why the election outcome might make a difference. For the rest of America, we either need housing or we don’t.

I could also see where some people could be concerned about their job going forward. Perhaps one candidate is more favorable to certain industries versus the other. Consumer confidence makes a difference, I get it.

It’s kind of like all those celebrities that promise to move to another country if so and so gets elected. They never do. I believe most people make a housing decision after the election about the same as they would have before the election. For some reason they just feel more in control. Buying a home is scary, and people like to feel in control. Even though we have the right to vote, that whole election thing feels out of control for most people, so they use it as an excuse to delay a decision.

Affordability

In the end, home sales and pricing come down to affordability. Affordability is determined by the price of the house, plus HOA fees, taxes, and insurance, financing costs, and anticipated maintenance. Home sales have slowed from better years because affordability has slipped. If real wages were to rise, inflation cools, or insurance costs abate, this would help affordability. Absent any of those, affordability must come from seller’s home prices, which is what we’ve seen the past few years.

Selling

If you’re selling in today’s market, who you hire matters. Marketing and experience matter. Always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 for the best advice in today’s market. Our marketing can work for you. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for your home’s instant home value. Our system will even track your home’s value each month and send you a comprehensive report on your area.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

1417 NE 10th Ln Cape Coral, FL

Listing Inventory Gone

Closed Sales

Economic Conditions

Seminars

Hurricane Helene Update

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Data

Stock Market

Emotional Decision

Consult with a Professional

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

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Housing Inventory Supply Declined

Best Performing Price Range

Worst Performing Price Range

The Fed

Shadow Inventory

Thinking of Selling?

Thanks for Voting

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

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Projecting Home Closing Activity

Economy

Election

Affordability

Selling

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

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