Monthly Archives: April 2023

Lee County Median Sales Prices Decline in March

Posted on by

Lee County median sales prices declined $10,500 in March 2023 from February. This is significant because median home prices generally increase throughout the season. We have been reporting for months that home prices dropped in 2022 but nobody realized it because most people focus on year over year numbers.

Lee County Median Sales Prices Decline in March

Year-over-year median prices were up 1.9% in March. The median sales price this year stands at $437,000. Last march it was $429,000. In February of this year the median price was $447,500. Looking forward, the official number for April 2022 was $470,000. If the median sales price doesn’t climb to $470,000, we’ll be reporting the first year-over-year loss in a while. About 6 months ago we predicted we would see this drop with the April or May numbers.

Preliminary April Numbers

 One thing that could change Lee County median sales prices that is if April sales numbers come in higher. Preliminary numbers reported through April 25th when this article was written suggest numbers of $445,000. This number will be off because there are some closings that haven’t been reported yet, and some closings that haven’t taken place yet.

The end of the month always includes several sales. If the $445,000 number holds up. It would be a 5.32% drop.

Why Studying the Market Matters

 We study the market to give our clients an advantage. For instance, years ago when we saw our Current Market Index turn negative, we got all our sellers out before the big price decreases. It’s never fun to be caught chasing the market down. When the market is moving upward, it is important for buyers to get in there quickly and beat out other buyers to hot new listings. Waiting literally costs the buyers money.

Predictions

 We are not making predictions about the market here. We’ll save that for our clients. We are simply reporting what we are seeing. The predictions about when we would see negative numbers weren’t really a prediction about the market. That was more of a mathematical equation that was going to reveal itself in the future, and the future is almost here.

We believe home sellers are going to be just fine moving forward. Sellers must price their home correctly and market it correctly and success will follow. Today’s Current Market Index is stable, so we don’t see large price fluctuations anytime soon, unless market conditions change.

We do have the possibility of lower interest rates on the horizon as the economy slows down. Lower rates help borrowers afford more, which could lead to higher prices in the future. A declining economy may weigh against that as more buyers lose their jobs.

X-Factor

 The X factor will be how many people continue to relocate to Florida who do not need a job to purchase or have a job that will allow them to relocate. Those remote jobs are drying up as more employers require their workers to show up in person, but there are still some out there.

The true answer is nobody knows what the future of real estate prices will be in SW Florida. We are watching all the indicators driving values and on balance they appear to be neutral. If you have a property you’re considering selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We will be happy to guide you through your home’s value and what improvements if any would be most beneficial for your sale.

You can always visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free Instant home value of your home. We think it’s kind of cool to track that value over time, which the system will do for you.

If you have your eye on a property but are not quite sure how to pull it off because you have a property you would need to sell, we should talk. We are experts at making things happen, and we have some creative financing options you might not know about that can help.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

Free Shred Event Saturday April 29th 10 AM- 12-PM

Link to Register

Ellis Team shred event April 2023

5846 Wild Fig Ln

Open House Sunday 12-3PM Whiskey Creek Area

3 Bed 2 Bath  $350,000

 

 

Net Domestic Migration Trends Favor Florida

Posted on by

We’ve been studying net domestic migration trends to help us explain supply and demand for housing in Florida. While demand is down compared to last year, it is still strong enough to equal supply which is keeping housing prices stable.

People Leaving

Reports conflict about which states are losing the most. One prominent news source lists New Jersey as losing the most, while many others suggest New York, Illinois, California, and Michigan.  This could be because some are looking at percentages versus raw numbers, and others are studying data county by county. Suffice it to say, New York, Illinois, and California show up in just about every report we see.

Net Domestic Migration Trends Favor Florida

Net Domestic Migration Trends

The other thing we look at is where are these people fleeing to. In most reports, Florida and Texas are the clear winners. We also see North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Idaho.

With all these people moving to Florida, you would think we would have a supply imbalance. Inventory supply in SW Florida is holding steady after gaining in 2022 and early 2023. It is still rising, but minimally now. Pending sales are gaining weekly and meeting the supply.

Stabilized inventory could be a result of lower interest rates. Long term mortgage rates have fallen off their highs. Additionally, we are seeing the migration patterns continuing.

Before Covid

People forget these patterns were in place before Covid. Many think that Covid is what drove people to states like Florida and Texas. This is true. People did move here for the freedom and work from home atmosphere during Covid.  However, after Covid people are continuing to move to Florida for the low crime and low taxes. Not only are we seeing individuals choosing to move here, we are also seeing entire companies relocating to more tax-friendly states.

When a company decides to move it is like a slow-moving train. It takes planning and time to move a company, and these plans can be in the works for years. When a company announces a move today, the plan may have been initiated more than two or three years ago, depending on the size of the company and logistics.

We do not see the trends changing anytime soon. Because Florida is a popular state, and because we have limited housing supply, our prices should remain relatively stable. The people able to make the move in the next few years should do better than those that wait.

Two Reasons

We believe this for two reasons. Prices could keep escalating in Florida. Secondly, when enough people move out of the high-tax states, it leaves less people behind to pick up a larger share of the tax burden. Someday few will want to move to those states because the tax burden will be unbearable, and it could limit their ability to sell their homes at today’s prices. If they cannot sell their homes, some may stay and continue to suffer the high tax burden.

Southwest Florida should continue to do well. As we fill in, we expect more people to begin moving into central Florida and eventually the panhandle. Granted, the weather isn’t as nice as it is in SW Florida, but prices are less, and people may have to make choices if home prices stall up North.

Nationwide, we have housing shortage, so demand is up there with supply. The high tax states could continue to lose residents, and eventually this causes more funding stress, and the need for more taxes. It’s a loop that perpetuates itself, and it may not be good for real estate values in those states.

Bottom Line

Bottom line is Florida is one of the places to be, and the sooner people make the move we think the better off they’ll be for the reasons outlined above. Of course, not everybody can move here at once. We don’t have enough supply and not everyone is in a position job or family wise to make the move at once.

Real estate values in Florida should fare well, even if the economy dips into recession. SW Florida home values have done well coming out of recessions in the past, and we see the demographics setting up nicely shout a recession occur again.

To search for your piece of paradise, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com where you’ll find some features no other website has. Or call us at 239-489-4042 and we’ll be glad to help.

SW Florida Residential Inventory Supply by Price Range

Posted on by

We have fresh residential SW Florida residential inventory supply numbers to report for April 2023. The overall single family inventory supply stands at 3.03 months, up from 2.81 months in February.

Each week we evaluate inventory supply numbers, and we’ve reported how they have been going up since last year. For instance, on April 12th of 2022 Lee County had 1,337 single family homes on the market. In 2023 we have 3,740. That is a 179.73% increase in inventory in one year.

SW Florida Residential Inventory Supply Gains by Price Range

We like to break it down by price range. Where we see the most inventory gains are in the higher price ranges. The $400-$600k price range increased from 2.82 months in February to 3.38 months currently. Even more gains can be seen in the $600k-$1 million price range which increased from 3.27 months in February to 4.20 months now. That is almost a one-month gain in inventory.

SW Florida Residential Inventory Supply by Price Range

The $1 million + market did gain a full month in inventory going from 5.35 months in February to 6.35 months now. The $200k-$300k markets lost inventory in the past two months, while the $100k-$200k markets gained slightly.

Rising inventory underscores the need to do two things to achieve success when selling. A home should be properly priced to attract all the buyers for a home, and it should be marketed to all those potential buyers.  Let me explain further.

When a home is overpriced, it is not reaching the true buyers for that home. The home attracts higher priced buyers whom after investigating the home are disappointed because the home does not measure up to other similarly priced homes they are looking at. The higher priced buyers balk at the home and make offers on other homes that offer more of what they are looking for.

The true buyer for the home never sees the home because it isn’t on their radar. It is over their price range, so they do not even see the home on their search. It might as well be invisible.

TV Guide

Think of it like a TV Guide. You can choose to see all channels, or just the ones you are subscribed to. Let’s say Comcast or DirectTv offer 1,200 channels but you subscribe to 140. Most people don’t want to waste time searching through channels they can never watch. It is not only frustrating but time consuming to do over and over every time you want to see something. The same is true when searching for homes. It is frustrating to see homes you can never afford when you are seriously looking to purchase. The serious buyers do not want to waste their time. The casual lookers don’t mind wasting their time, or yours. They aren’t going to buy anyway, they’re just looking to see what’s out there killing time.

Market to Every Buyer

Secondly, once you’ve identified true buyers for your home, you must market to them. Fortunately, our company has developed a new form of marketing that leverages online technology to identify the best potential buyers for any home in America in just 72 hours. Once we’ve identified the best buyers for your home, we can create a competitive environment which validates your home’s desirability. Identifying buyers quickly keeps your home from sitting on the market for months causing buyers to think it’s overpriced.

Sell in 8 Days

Sellers love the program because we can sell most homes in 8 days or less. It’s no fun having your home on the market for months, keeping your home clean everyday for showings, and reducing your price while your neighbors sell their home. Our program sells homes for thousands more than the traditional way of selling, and it’s fast. To learn more, simply call 239-444-8150 or visit www.MyHomeSoldin8Days.com

Sell Your Home in 8 Days For Thousands More Than the Traditional Way

Posted on by

We have a program to sell your home in 8 days for thousands more than the traditional way. Local agents didn’t understand the program, and neither did we until we researched it.

Sell Your Home in 8 Days

72SOLD is a company in Arizona that changed how real estate was sold in that state. The program was so successful that other companies started noticing. And yet, they couldn’t quite understand how they were doing it.

The Ellis Team are Regional Directors with 72SOLD

We were elated when we found out Keller Williams partnered with 72Sold to bring the program national. Immediately we signed up for the training, and we were blown away at the potential. We spoke with many of our Arizona agent friends who personally witnessed the amazing results.

After training for several months, the Ellis Team began using the program. I personally have used the program 7 times. 6 of the 7 homes sold within 2 weeks, and most within 8 days. One listing did take a little longer. The sellers were amazed at how much we got for their home, and how quickly it sold.

Sellers really appreciated the process. Many didn’t want to show the home for months on end, and they appreciated getting Top Dollar while selling quickly. When we sit down and show the program to sellers, they wonder why everyone doesn’t sell their home this way. The 72SOLD program really changes the way real estate is sold. The Ellis Team is grateful we can offer this program.

We still have the option to sell your home the traditional way. In most cases, sellers choose the new way. We knew the results in Arizona were good, but would this work in Florida? After using the system, we can say we love the results.

What the Program is Not

Can we tell you what the program is not? It is not a guarantee that if you list your home it will sell in 8 days for double or triple what the market will pay. There are selling techniques we as agents must follow, and of course there are market conditions we must consider.  The program is filled with probability increasers, so using each technique increases your chances of selling. If we use all of them, the results speak for themselves. In fact, three independent studies have shown that homes using this program sell for 8.4%-12% higher than the MLS average and faster.

Unsatisfied in the Past

Perhaps you’ve sold homes in the past and you weren’t entirely satisfied with the process. Maybe you tried to sell your current home and failed. Perhaps you’d like to sell your current home but don’t want to pay high fees and get the same results everyone else in the neighborhood has gotten.

If you’d like to make a move, we should talk. We may be able to shorten the process of selling your home for you, and get you Top Dollar too. We have several local home sellers that have tried it and wouldn’t sell any other way. Let’s have a conversation and see if we can help you too.

Give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call at 239-310-6500 and find out what we can sell your home for. Or visit www.MyHomeSoldin8Days.com We can sell your home now or wait for a time that’s better for you. The program works in all markets, good and bad. The program was built before the multiple offer market and has evolved since then. Each week we meet 3 times per week on a national call and implement new proven changes to the program. We are learning based and continue to tweak the program, and having thousands of transactions each quarter helps us learn and improve together.

Put the power of Keller Williams, the Ellis Team, and the 72SOLD program to work for you! We look forward to having a conversation with you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!