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Southwest Florida Real Estate Inventory Supply Increases in 4th Qtr

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The Southwest Florida real estate inventory supply increases in the 4th qtr.  All price ranges except two increased with the most pronounced increases occurring in the $400,000 and up range.

Southwest Florida real estate inventory supply increases in 4th Qtr

In December, the $400k-600k range shot up almost 2 months from 9.34 months in September to 11.15 months currently.  The $600k-$1 Million shot up from 12.57 months to 14.69 currently.  That’s over a 2 month jump.  The biggest jump occurred in the $1 Million+ range where there was a 17.03 month supply back in September.  Today that number stands at 21.04 months.  That’s almost a 4 month jump in supply just since September.

Southwest Florida Real Estate Inventory Supply Increases

It pays to know where your home stands in the supply chain.  It tells you how aggressive you must be when selling your home.  The overall market stands at 5.65 months which is a healthy number.  People read headlines and hear there is a 5.65 month supply, so homes must be selling fast.  They figure with homes selling so fast it’s probably easy to stick a sign in the yard and sell it.

Even at the lower price ranges there are still many homes that do not sell, because they are over-priced.  If they were priced correctly and properly marketed, they would sell.  The demand is there, at the correct price.

As we go higher in price the demand is still there, it’s just that the supply is even greater.  Recently more homes are coming to the market than are selling, hence why we have increasing supply.  We can’t look at the overall market and assume all homes are selling the exact same.  Just as we can’t assume that all cities in Florida are behaving the exact same.  Real estate is local, and it is segmented.

Certain cities or neighborhoods sell better than others.  This can be due to economic factors, or perhaps location.  The closer to beaches, or top schools can affect values.

Lee County is getting ready to change how children are selected for schools starting in 2018.  This may put an end to the zoned system and busing system as we know it.  Children will go to schools closer to where they live, and this could affect values.

Segments also affect the market.  Sometimes the low end is red-hot, and other times the mid to upper markets make a comeback.  Generally speaking, the lower the price the greater the demand as more people can afford lower prices.  Not everyone can afford high-end real estate.  Just because Southwest Florida Real Estate Inventory Supply Increases in some price ranges doesn’t mean it increases for all ranges.  In fact, a few decreased.

Right now we have an affordable housing crunch in Southwest Florida. Rents are high, and so are median sales prices relative to what the average working person can afford.  It makes it difficult to find housing close to where you work.   We saw this back in the housing boom too.  This doesn’t mean our market is over-inflated.  It just means there is a cap to how much more and how fast it can rise until incomes pick up.

The big price gains may be over, unless the economy comes roaring back.  Our US economy has essentially had free money for the past 8 years and it’s done nothing except help the stock market.  If jobs and economic activity return like it’s believed they will post-election, our real estate market  could be in for more good times.  If nothing changes, we could be in for flat to modest gains.

We think 2017 is going to be a year of change.  Home sales may pick up even though rates will continue to rise.  Proper pricing and aggressive marketing will become even more important, and the people who act quickest will save the most money when rates rise.

You can search the MLS for Free at www.LeeCountyOnline.com.  Our database has all the homes, and it’s updated every 5 minutes directly from the MLS.  It will even notify you of new homes or price changes if you save your search.  You can always call us at 239-489-4042 and we’ll be happy to discuss your buying or selling options.

 

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

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Time to Give Thanks in SW Florida

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By the time you read this article Thanksgiving will be a distant memory as attention turns to holiday shopping, upcoming family get togethers, office parties, etc.  We thought it might be an appropriate time to give thanks in SW Florida before the holiday rush.

Give Thanks in SW Florida

Give Thanks in SW Florida

I’m thankful the election is over.  I was over it months ago really and Election Day couldn’t get here soon enough.  Now that the election is over, we can reflect on what the results might mean for our real estate market.

Interest rates are rising.  This was the case regardless of who was elected president, so we have some headwind there that doesn’t help.  However, rates are still very low and shouldn’t pose a big problem anytime soon.

We are hopeful parts of Dodd-Frank will be repealed.  This would help the financing market as onerous regulations have made lenders cautious about lending.  The finance industry was to loose before the run-up and they’ve been too tight since.

Appraisal regulations are terrible.  We’d like to see these revamped as they don’t serve the buyers or the banks well.  They’re forcing buyers to lose homes to cash buyers or put more money down when the home doesn’t appraise.  It’s a shame because if the buyer loses out because the home doesn’t appraise and a cash buyer comes in and pays what the previous buyer contracted to pay, it proves the home was really worth it.  New regulations within the last few years prevent appraisers from reaching actual value, especially on homes that are highest in the neighborhood.  Just because there are not comps at that higher price doesn’t mean home isn’t worth it.  It just means a home that size perhaps hadn’t come on the market until now.

We’re already hearing Apple and Ford may build products in the US that were previously slated to be built out of the country.  This is good news.  We need manufacturing jobs to come back to the US.  Lowering corporate income taxes raises the tax base as more companies do business here, and they hire US job seekers versus lower paying jobs somewhere else.  It’s a win-win for the US.  More jobs mean a healthier real estate market.

We’d like to see the Affordable Care Act reworked so the coverage is actually affordable.  We talk to buyers who cannot afford to purchase a home because health care costs have gone up so much.  The Affordable Care Act didn’t do much to contain costs, only premiums on those that qualify for subsidies.  This didn’t address the problem.  We need to control costs, deliver a better product, and make it affordable to more people.  It is our hope that the president and congress can work together to solve this issue.

Right now many employers will not hire full-time workers.  Some small businesses cannot afford to pay under Obama Care either, so it’s a double-whammy.  Repealing and replacing that law could fix this and allow businesses to hire full-time people, which will help the economy and real estate markets across the country.

We’re not here to argue who would have made a better president, or whether the popular vote or Electoral College is best.  Now that we have a president, our focus is on what we can do to get the economy going again.  We’ve basically had free money for the last 8 years and that didn’t help like you would think.  Change is required, and change is on the way.

We think we have the potential to kick-start this real estate market.  It will only happen if the economy takes off.  Be thankful change is coming, and let’s all hope and pray that change will kick-start this economy.

You can search our website at www.LeeCountyOnline.com for some great bargains in SW Florida.  You can also find out what your home is worth online for Free!  If you’d like to talk to us, we can be reached at 239-489-4042

Don’t forget about our Ready For a Yeti promotion.  Enter to win a Yeti cooler.  Details available on our Ellis Team Facebook Page

SW Florida Real Estate Market Update December 2016

Listing Inventory Rises Slightly

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The last few weeks we’ve been bringing readers up to speed on prices and where they’re headed as well as closings for 2016.  This week we decided to focus on listings.  We’ve been reporting that listing inventory rises slightly for months and here is the latest graph to illustrate that.

Listing inventory is seasonal.  For some reason, more sellers decide to list in season than other times.  I don’t know if they perceive there are more buyers here in season or perhaps they come back to SW Florida and decide to list.  For whatever reason is does go up in season which makes using the trend line a little complicated.

Listing Inventory Rises Slightly

We did add the trend line which does show a rise in inventory going forward.  Year over year numbers are up each month so this is accurate.  The real question is going to be, with slowing sales, rising rates, and stagnant home prices, what will happen in 2017?

Listing Inventory Rises Slightly

The amount of inventory in 2017 will most likely affect home prices as much as interest rates do.  We’ve seen rising prices up until this year partly because listing inventory has been so low for so many years.  As new construction and existing home inventory begins to rise, we’re seeing prices level off. We’re not sure if it’s the chicken or the egg.  Does listing inventory rise because prices stagnate or do prices stagnate because inventory is rising?

We think they go hand in hand and affect each other.  The SW Florida real estate market is totally balanced right now.  You might say it’s a perfectly healthy market.  Buyers and sellers are at an equal advantage right now.  In the lower price ranges, it’s a seller’s market and in the upper ranges it’s a buyer’s market.  The mid-market is balanced.

Buyers, sellers, and agents alike complain when the market is skewed too far in any one direction.  It is not often we can say the market is perfectly balanced, but at the end of 2016 I think we can.  Our market is like a teeter totter and it is straight right now.

As you know, it doesn’t take much to alter a teeter totter and they don’t stay straight for long.  Our market has been slowly moving from a seller’s market to balanced.  It could go either way from here.  It depends on interest rates, consumer confidence, and the economy.

What Role Will Election Play?

We think the election results will go a long way to resolving some of this.  Interest rates will probably rise in 2017.  Consumer confidence will be swayed by the economy and confidence in the election results.

Who holds the presidency?  Who controls the Senate, and the House?  Is the election in dispute?  Is the winner under investigation and facing indictment?  We don’t know how the election will turn out.  Nobody knows how the winner and loser will react post election.  We don’t know who will control congress.  You’re witnessing is the craziest election we’ve ever seen, and could get crazier after the election.

All we do know is we have uncertainty.  Uncertainty may hold back interest rates for a while, but it may also hold back the economy.  We don’t control any of this.  All we can do is advise our clients and help them make the best real estate decisions for their family.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, call the SW Florida real estate authority, the Ellis Team, 239-489-4042  or visit our MLS website.  While we may not be able to tell you who will win the election, we can advise you on your real estate decisions.  Use our website to find out how much your home is worth for Free or search the MLS.  Neighborhood market reports are available for neighborhoods you’re interested in.

And be sure to buy some popcorn this weekend because next Tuesday will be must-see TV.  Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

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SW Florida Home Sellers Confused

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Thank goodness we’ve been busy listing and selling a lot of property lately.  The 360-degree home tours and advanced marketing we’re employing to go out and create buyers for our listings is working.  We have noticed a trend recently we thought we’d try to clear up.  SW Florida home sellers are confused when they read headlines that home prices were up 11.3% in August.  They’re interviewing agents and they aren’t hearing the higher prices they were expecting, so they’ve called us out to verify what’s really going on in the market.

SW Florida Home Sellers Confused

We decided to present the chart in a different way.  Agents have been telling sellers there’s been a shift since we reported on it back on February 16th.  Sellers aren’t seeing it though because they read the headlines.  It is true, median prices are up 11.3% over last year.  However, they are down $5,000 from last month and down $2,000 from where they were last November.

Unless home prices rise in the next few months, we’ll be looking at essentially a flat line since last November.  In other words, home prices aren’t statistically rising right now.  The rise occurred last year up until November, so when you read that home prices are up over last year, they are until we get to November.  They are actually down month over month as much as they are up which is creating the flat line.

It is possible prices could start rising again.  Perhaps after the election consumer confidence will grow.  I think everyone can agree they’re tired of the political season and just want it over with as soon as possible so we can move on with our lives.

We see the Fed raising rates at their December meeting.  Interest rates have been quietly rising the past few weeks and we see more of that in 2017.  Rising rates typically do not help home prices rise because it steals affordability from the buyer.  Basically, when rates move up 1% it robs the buyer of about 11% purchasing power.

In other words, a $400,000 buyer putting 10% down could finance $360,000.  If they lose 11% purchasing power, for the same payment they can now finance 320,400.  They lose $39,600 in purchasing power.  Their payment remains the same as if they were financing $360,000 and paying $400,000 earlier before rates went up.

This is why rising rates does not help home prices.  Rising rates can spur home buyers who have been on the fence to buy now so they will save money on payments, but it doesn’t help prices long-term.

This is one reason choosing the right Realtor to list your home will become even more important.   You need a Realtor who has sold during a rising rate environment.  I venture to guess that over 80% of agents today have not been in business long enough to experience that.

How you sell in a rising rate environment is vastly different than in a stable or lowering interest rate environment.  Marketing becomes more critical as well.

If you’re a buyer, I would seriously consider buying now.  It will cost you to wait.  Prices may still rise, just not as fast.  Or they may remain stable.  The only advantage to you might be more inventory to choose from.  The disadvantage will be that it will cost you more to buy the same house next year, simply because of rising rates.

If you’d like to search the market, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com  You can beat out other buyers to hot new listings as our database is updated every 5 minutes directly from the MLS.

SW Florida home sellers, if you’re  considering making a move, you should call us now.  239-489-4042.  Or visit LeeCountyOnline.com and get a free computerized estimate of your home’s value.

Please call us if we can help.  Good luck and Happy Home Buying!

Our Paint the Town Red event was a success.  We had over 35 properties open in one day and produced several interested buyers for our properties.  Be on the lookout for our next open house extravaganza.

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360 Degree Home Tours Showcases SW Florida Homes

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Perhaps you’ve read about virtual reality headsets and what it can do for the gaming industry.  You may not realize what 360 degree home tours mean for the real estate industry, until now.

360 Degree Home Tours
360 Degree Home Tours on Your Smartphone or Desktop

Until recently agents would provide a virtual tour in 2D, meaning the tour would consist of a series of photos, and perhaps video walking through the home.  This was great but it didn’t provide perspective and the consumer was forced to look at what the photographer wanted you to see, exactly when they wanted you to see it.

Now the technology has grown such that savvy agents can now provide more perspective and the consumer is in control.  They get to control the scene, view each scene as long or as little as they like, and see how rooms and objects relate to each other.  It’s very spatial and the best way to view a home without actually being there.

We’ve had buyers buy homes sight unseen before simply from photos and videos we’ve taken from a home, and now buyers will be able to feel like they’re in the home.  Showings will go way up because now people are viewing the home on their computer, or on their mobile device.

Many mobile devices today are better than computers were a few years ago.  They displays are crystal clear, and they have sensors like gyroscopes that allow a consumer to place it in motion view or 360 view and literally move the phone around and see the entire room.  Sure, you can still move around the room by touching your screen, but now the phone or VR (Virtual Reality) headset will do it for you.  All you have to do is look a certain direction and now you’re moving the scene, 360 degrees.

360 Degree Home Tours


We’re creating a new website www.SWFL360hometours.com which will showcase our listings in full 360 virtual reality.  You don’t have to have a VR headset to do this.  As we said, many smartphones will do this.

Facebook and YouTube already allow 360 photos and videos.  We’ve been adding 360 photos to our fan page www.facebook.com/Ellisteam Not only is this one of the most fun things we’ve done, it’s also one of the most useful things for consumers.  We’ve been hosting live events on FB as well as utilizing 360 photos.

We love 360 videos too, however when you shoot a home in 360 video consumers need to pause the scene if they want to view it for longer than what the videographer chose.  That’s OK, but why make a videographer choose a length or the consumer have to take extra steps?  With a 360 photo the consumer can see everything for as little or as long as they choose, then move to another scene.

Every person we show 360 degree home tours to sees the big WOW.  Sellers realize instantly what it can do for their home.  Marketing matters.  Pricing is important, but it’s not the only thing that sells a home.

More Online Showings

Imagine you have an item and you place it in an online auction.  Do you think you’ll sell your item for more in you have 1,000 bidders or just 1 bidder?  Of course, more bidders bring a higher price for anything, including real estate.  This is why marketing is critical in getting Top Dollar.

Adding 360 degree home tours to a home brings more online showings to your home, and there is no limit as it’s online and shareable via social media.  We have the ability to target buyers by income, price range, age, geographical area, recreational interests, habits, and much more.

We’re listing a home in an over 55 community.  We can place ads to only people 55+ We can place ads to golfers, boaters, people likely to move, have certain incomes, etc.

Marketing today isn’t what it was 10 years ago.  If an agent tells you marketing doesn’t work, seek another opinion.  Remember the formula.  Proper Pricing x Targeted Marketing= Successful Sale.

If you’re thinking of selling, Always Call the Ellis Team 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS or find out what your home is worth.

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Find out how you can with a Yeti cooler.  Simply pickup your Ellis Team koozie at one of our open houses or stop by our office.  Simply post a picture of our koozie with your favorite beverage and use hashtags #Ellisteam and #readyforayeti and like our Facebook Page.

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Market Responds as Sellers Heed Advice

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Perhaps you’ve been reading about the shift in the local and national real estate market. Some experts haven’t noticed a shift while others have predicted dire results because they have noticed. The real experts are aware of the shift and realize this appears to be a minor correction as the market just got ahead of itself. Markets often chug along until one day it does get ahead of itself, both on the way up and the way down. Today we talk about how the market responds as sellers heed advice from agents.

Back in 2009 we said the market had over-corrected and was due for gains. It did. This past February we sounded the alarm and said the market may be ahead of itself, and it was. Sellers have heeded the advice of agents and are actually selling homes.

You see, homes will always sell, even in up, down, and sideways markets. It’s a matter of marketing and price, and the sellers that market properly and price properly win the selling game. Owners that fail at either of the above may not win. Sometimes the best team on the field doesn’t win the game. Sometimes the best home on the block doesn’t sell. You have to be the best today to sell today. It’s not enough to be the best 6 months ago.

Buyers judge houses on features, size, location, age, and price among others. If you’re great in all areas except price, buyers will reject your home. You’re not the best today if your home is overpriced.

Market Responds as Sellers Heed Advice

We have good news to present however. In fact, I had to double check the numbers because I didn’t believe the numbers. Month’s supply of inventory is down to 5.07 months by my numbers. Official numbers by Florida Realtors shows 4.5 months however they calculate slightly differently than we do. In any event, and by any measure, we both have inventory coming down.

Market Responds as Sellers Heed Advice

You can see by the graph that inventory levels have come down in virtually all price ranges. This is because sellers have taken their agent’s advice and reacted to the shift in the market. The sellers who have not repositioned their home in the marketplace are still on the market or their listing has expired.

Selling your home is a pretty easy math equation. mm x cp = ss Mass Marketing times Correct Pricing equals Successful Sale. If your home isn’t marketed to the entire market it may not sell. I’ve seen homes priced correctly that have not sold. We’ve come in and upped the marketing and watch them sell.

An overpriced home will not sell. No amount of marketing can cure an overpriced listing. If you’re willing to follow the formula, success will follow. If you deviate from the formula, you won’t get your desired result, so you have to ask yourself the question, “Which is most important? Selling my home or staying because I want or need too much money?”

Unfortunately, the market doesn’t care what you need, and Mick Jagger explains beautifully that you can’t always get what you want. The answer lies with you. Are you willing to price your home where the market is? Are you willing to hire the best agent to sell your home?

Owners mistakenly believe all Realtors are the same and MLS will sell the home. It doesn’t work that way. There is a lot of expertise that goes into negotiations and the best way to present a property to the market. Some Realtors don’t know these tips because they’re not experienced enough. If Realtors in the business don’t all know, how is a seller supposed to know?

You have to interview agents with experience and a track record. If you’re thinking about selling, or perhaps have tried it yourself to no avail, give us a call. We’ve got some new ways to reach buyers we think you’re going to like. Call the Ellis Team 239-489-4042 and find out what’s new and how we’re reaching today’s buyers. We think you’ll be amazed, and most importantly, on to your next home. Feel free to search the MLS at  and get an automated free estimate of your home’s value.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

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Are You Ready For a Yeti
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All you have to do is like our Ellis Team Facebook page and post a picture of our koozie with your favorte beverage online with the hashtags #ellisteam and #readyforayeti The most creative picture wins.  You can post online at Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and Google +

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Stop by our open house and pickup your koozie, or stop by our office.  You can always call us at 239-489-4042 to see where we’re going o be.  Some lucky winner is going to win a Yeti 45 and it might as well be you.  Contest ends November 30, so you’ve got some time.