We study nationwide new home starts because it affects housing supply, which affects home prices.

During the last housing bubble builders stopped building which led to an under supply of new homes coming to the market. Consequently, we estimate we were about 1.5 million homes nationwide short of keeping up with demand.

As you can see from the chart, from 2008 to 2021 we did not build enough homes.  In 2021 and 2022 we surpassed the 1 million home mark, but in no way could that make up for the nationwide new home starts deficit from the preceding 12 years.

Need 1 Million New Home Starts Annually

Traditionally we need about 1 million nationwide new home starts every year. We didn’t make that number in 2023. This year the National Association of Home Builders met in Las Vegas and predicts they will build about 988,000 units, up 4.2% from last year. NAHB also predicts they will build about 1.03 million in 2025. These numbers are predicated upon the assumption the Fed will reduce rates 2 to 3 times this year, and even more in 2025.

We agree the Fed will reduce rates. We’re not sure if it will be this year, or if it will be 2-3 times in 2024. If the Fed does not reduce rates in 2024, the NAHB prediction of 988,000 new homes being built might be in jeopardy. The good news is homes are not built in a day. Because they are forecasting these rate cuts later in the year, they would have to begin building homes earlier. This means that even if they are wrong on when rate cuts will occur, they might still start close to that number.

Nationwide new home starts can impact future home prices. When the country does not have enough resale inventory and new home sale starts, prices can go up if there is buyer demand. People need to live somewhere, and housing has not been keeping up.

Muti-Family Construction

Many apartments have been built to keep up with demand. Demand was so high rents kept escalating. Some say builders overbuilt in this sector, which could lead to lower rents. If rents got low enough, it could temper buyer demand if it’s a better deal than buying in the minds of renters.

In Southwest Florida we have a nice selection of resale homes. Currently we have about a 6-month supply of homes on the market. Once rates start declining, home buyer demand should increase.

If resale inventory declines, will the tepid new home starts be enough? Will more sellers decide to list, and what will that do to local inventory? You begin to see future home prices are a math equation influenced by existing homeowners and their desires to stay or list, new home starts, interest rates, affordability, and rent prices. The variables change by the week, and this is why we study the macro numbers so our clients have the very best information to make decisions.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking of selling, you’re probably asking yourself when the best time is. We say this, because this is the question we get asked the most. The answer is it depends on what you own, where you’re going, and your timeframe.

We cannot give blanket answers. Each situation depends on your circumstances. What we can do is sit down with you, listen to your goals, and offer advice based upon your needs. The Ellis Team isn’t in this to make a sale. We do this to solve a need.

If you’d like to speak with Sande or Brett about your situation, call us at 239-310-6500 We’ll be happy to sit down, evaluate your home, and listen. We’re free to talk to, but it can sure cost you not to speak with us.

Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a good idea of what your home is worth. We can talk when you’re ready.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Median January 2024 home prices fell 3.6% from last year. Average home prices were up 8.7% in January. The reason we don’t look at average home prices as an official number is because it can be skewed by a few large sales and tends to be more volatile.

Home prices typically rise from January through May because they are seasonal. Our highest home sales typically close in season and culminate in May. We will be keeping a close eye on home sale prices going forward into February and March.

Pending Sales

We are down 133 pending sales from this time last year.  Single family listings are almost double what they were last year. In my mind, double the listings and 133 fewer pending sales is not the equation for price increases. However, in time prices will naturally increase once supply and demand levels out as repaired homes from the hurricane will have newer roofs, windows, appliances, flooring, and other items that will increase the salability of older homes that needed some updating.

In time, prices will rise, and it could start later this year. Once inventory begins to level off and pending sales rise due to future lower interest rates, it will give us a chance to work down some of this inventory. We don’t know for certain when interest rates will begin to fall, how much they will fall, and what shape the economy will be in once they do begin to move.

High Rates to Hang Around?

For now, high interest rates seem to be in the cards. Everybody was talking about several rate cuts this year. Now the experts are not thinking that. What nobody is talking about is what if the feds must raise rates again. Hopefully holding rates steady will tame inflation, but higher oil prices can move inflation higher quickly, and we’re not doing anything to tackle energy prices. So, we sit and wait, and pray that things work out.

We have some good news on the insurance front as more carriers are entering Florida. We still believe this will take a few years to translate into lower rates, but we’re hopeful. We’re also hopeful we’ll see a modest storm season this summer; however, weather experts are expecting a transition from El Nino to La Nina this summer and warn of a very active hurricane season.

Hurricane Season

It’s a shame that Floridians know so much about La Nina and El Nino, but they do because they need to. An active hurricane season, it doesn’t mean one will hit here. When you were the target of a big one, the next few years seem like everything will come our way. SW Florida escaped the big one after Hurricane Donna in 1960 for about 50+ years when Hurricane Charley hit. I remember locals telling newcomers that hurricanes never come here because they hadn’t seen one personally. Our fear or confidence comes only from our experience and not from actual statistics. Statistically, we may not see another big one here for a while, but then again, we must always prepare.

Cautious Optimism

We are watching pending home sales. We are encouraged that they have risen in the past few weeks. If they continue rising into March it could be a good sign if rates do decline later this year. We track them weekly and will report our findings. Official February numbers will not be released until the 3^rd week of March, but we’ll have some preliminary numbers for you before then.

As always, if you have real estate questions, or are considering buying or selling in SW Florida, it pays to work with an experienced team that knows the numbers. We can be reached at 239-310-6500, or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS like a pro.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Many buyers we talk are waiting for lower interest rates before purchasing a home. Today we’re going to explore why this may be a dangerous game, and why we believe the next 6 months may be the best time to purchase your next home.

Waiting For Lower Interest Rates a Dangerous Game

Traditionally home prices appreciate about 4% per year over time. Some years yield more, and some years yield less. Even though we have a greater supply of current inventory on the market right now, we don’t have enough supply to satisfy all that will be able to buy when rates move lower and those moving here. Builders have not been keeping up with demand moving to Florida.

FNMA issued home price predictions moving forward. If you were to buy a home in 2024 using their price predictions your home would be worth $472,405 in 5 years, for a gain of $72,405.

Let’s say you could finance a home today in the 6.5% range. The actual rate doesn’t really matter because the point I’m going to illustrate is a 1% interest rate decline from whatever rate you could get. If a buyer were to finance today at 6.5% mortgage rather than a 5.5% mortgage it would cost them $3,802.71 in extra interest for the 1^st year. As you pay down the principal the interest declines slightly for each year. The total a buyer would pay over 5 years for a 1% differential in rates would be $19,027.04 in this hypothetical example.

Wait a Minute

A buyer who does nothing waiting for rates to decline would cost themselves $53,377 by waiting.  Now you might argue, “yes, but what if the buyer bought a year or two down the road? It wouldn’t cost them the whole 5 years.

That’s right, it wouldn’t, but we have three other items to consider. First, the buyer who waits for rates to decline down to 5.5% may convince themselves to wait longer until they come down to 4.5%. Those that wait now are just as likely to wait longer later. Secondly, as rates come down, inventory may come down and there would be less homes available to bid on. Getting the home that meets your needs could get tougher. Lastly, when inventory gets low, prices can appreciate faster, especially when builders have not kept up with new demand. Existing homes just are not enough for all those moving to Florida.

If you were around a few years ago, you know that when things heat up, a 4% appreciation rate is conservative. Waiting for lower interest rates can be a dangerous game.  It’s kind of funny, because back in December of 2017 I wrote an article about the cost of waiting as interest rates were rising. It’s ironic that there is a cost of waiting as interest rates are falling as well. The result is the same, it’s just the variables in the equation have flipped. If you’d like to read that article it is available at https://blog.topagent.com Simply go to the archives in December 2017.

Best Time is Next 6 Months

We believe the Fed won’t begin to lower rates for about 4-6 months. The mortgage market may bounce up or down, but until the markets get a sense of bond market stability, rates will remain high. Buyers have a window as inventory is building. They are in their best negotiating position, but that window could close or shrink later this year.  Why not buy now and lock in those potential gains? Then, when rates do go down, refinance and capitalize. That way you can lock in appreciation and lower housing costs later if rates fall. The best of both worlds, and you’re on the equity train.

Don’t be that buyer that waits, and waits, and regrets it later. Some people wait to see evidence the market has turned, and it’s too late for them. All the people who should have bought in 2018 but waited are still kicking themselves.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We’ll get you pre-approved with a great lender and a ticket on the equity train to start building your wealth. Call us today! Search the SW Florida MLS like a pro.

Lee County year end 2023 median sales prices fell 2.3%. The year end sales price is the average of the entire year, so it doesn’t necessarily mean December 2023 sales price.

For instance, the median sales price in Lee County for December 2023 was $399,000. That was a 2.2% decrease from 2022 numbers of $407,950. The average sales price fell .9% in December and 1.4% for the year.

Prices Peaked

As you can see from the graph, Lee County year end home prices peaked in 2022. The median topped out in April 2022 while the average topped out in May. Since mid-2022 we have watched a steady decline in prices. The median sales price in April 2022 was $470,000 compared to $399,000 in December 2023. The average sales price in May 2022 was $658,886 compared to $539,765. Of course, some of that is seasonal.

Since the seasonal peak in 2022 we have seen a median price decline of $71,000 and an average decline of $119,121. Many sellers did not realize prices were declining, but News Press readers did because we report it each month.

Today we believe most homeowners realize prices have declined as inventory has risen. Selling a home today requires marketing muscle and experience in selling in a shifting market. Many agents are getting out of the business. Nationally 48% of agents did not do a deal in the 2^nd half of 2022.

Locally, 85% of the agents have not been in the business for more than 6 years. This means most have never worked through a shift like we are seeing today, and they don’t know what to do. It is incumbent on agents with less than 10 years’ experience either join a team or join a brokerage with tremendous training.

Lead Flow

Most agents complain they do not have lead flow currently. Not only are buyers harder to close, they are fewer and farther between. Sure, there are many interested lookers, but many lack motivation to act with prices high and interest rates higher. With the total cost of ownership at high levels, buyers have been on the sidelines.

To be successful in real estate requires tremendous sales skills, and lead flow. Lead flow is expensive, and many newer agents do not have the budget to acquire leads. Because leads are converting at less rate due to less motivation, conversion becomes more critical.

Conversion

Where do agents learn how to convert? They can learn from mentors like us who have been in business through many cycles and shifts. Additionally, some brokerages focus on training, while others cater to more experienced agents. If you are an agent struggling to hold on, Give Sande or Brett a call at 239-489-4042 and we will be glad to offer some resources for you.

Sellers

If you have a home to sell, or previously tried to sell it and it expired, give us a call. 239-310-6500 Perhaps it failed to sell because of pricing. Maybe the price was fine and it wasn’t marketed heavily. Perhaps your Realtor had a side job and couldn’t devote 100% of their time to selling your home. Whatever the reason, we can take a fresh look at it and make some recommendations. Brett and Sande have sold over 5,000 homes in Lee County over the years. We’ve worked in the best of times and excelled in tough times when agents were getting out. The reason is, we never stop marketing, and nobody outworks us.

Call us to put our marketing muscles, know how, and hard work to work for you. You’ll wonder why you didn’t call us the first time. But that’s OK, we enjoy making a difference for people, even if you found us second.

Good luck. We’ll be watching 2024 like a hawk and reporting trends as they occur.

Happy Selling!

Pricing a home correctly is key to getting a home sold for top dollar. Time on the market is not your friend when selling your home. Our benchmark pricing analysis report helps clarify if a home is correctly priced by illustrating several key factors. We will focus on a few of those factors now.

Showing Activity

The Benchmark pricing analysis report shows the number of scheduled showings on subject property compared to other similar listings in the area. The report compares active and pending listings as well as closed listings. If the subject property is receiving a comparable number of showings, the price must be in the ballpark, or it wouldn’t receive showings.  If the home is receiving more showings than similar listings, all the better. The marketing is working.

Days on Market

Larger number of showings than pending or closed sales could lead to increased days on market. This tells us that while the home is in the ballpark, it is losing out to other listings when buyers decide to offer. A small price reduction could be warranted. The home just doesn’t measure up in value to competing listings. It is getting shown, which means it’s getting its opportunity. The home just isn’t the winner. Placing a home on the market is like entering a beauty contest. You must price it to be the winner. It is tiring to take home 2^nd, or 3^rd, or 4^th place all the time. Eventually you need a win. Making a price adjustment can get your home on the winner’s stand.

Price Reductions

Another factor the report shows is the price reductions. The report not only shows how many comparable listings have had price reductions, but it also shows you the size of the reductions. Together with your agent you are deciding at what price to bring your home to the market for. That decision will either be spot on or off a bit. The seller determines the list price while the buyers determine the value. If the seller has miscalculated, a price reduction may be in order.

Chasing the Market

The sooner a seller realizes a price adjustment is in order, quick action can save the seller thousands. You never want to get caught chasing the market down. Adjust before the other sellers and get out. A lingering home on the market does the seller no favors. We have studies that show time on the market is detrimental to a seller’s net proceeds we can share with you when we meet.

The Ellis Team sends these reports out to our sellers on a regular basis. Our sellers always have the latest statistical data so they can make the most informed decisions. Setting a price and placing your head in the sand isn’t going to sell a home today, especially when so many sellers are making price adjustments as well.

Buyer or Seller Market

In a buyer’s market, home sellers are in competition with each other trying to find able buyers as there are more sellers than willing buyers. In a seller’s market, home buyers are in competition with each other over the best listings.

Winning Formula

The winning formula in today’s market is aggressive marketing, proper pricing, and communication. The Ellis Team has a system to communicate with our sellers. Nobody markets a home like the Ellis Team. Together as a team we help you price your home for success. Then we market it and communicate with you. If we are generating showings but no offers, together we’ll tackle the market and guide you through to the finish line. There is a reason the Ellis Team has helped over 5,000 families sell their homes. Sande and Brett have been through market shifts, and we never stop marketing and communicating.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty to get your home sold fast, and for Top Dollar, 239-310-6500 You plus us makes a winning team! Search the MLS at LeeCountyOnline.com

The Ellis Team analyzes market activity showing reports to determine buyer sentiment. This market report is for all listings using this service, not just our listings.

Market Activity Showing Reports

Realtors, have you ever had a listing that wasn’t receiving many showings? Did you wonder if market activity had suddenly slowed down, or whether it was just your listing? Realtors have the ability to track other listings showing activity and see how it relates to your listing.

If your listing isn’t receiving any showings but other listings are, perhaps it is the price. When a listing is overpriced, the market rejects it and showings fall off. It could also be the photos, the language in the MLS, or the data that was entered. We’ve uncovered so many unchecked or unspecified fields in MLS that would prohibit other Realtors from searching for a property and returning a match. When showing activity is down, you do not want to miss any.

The market activity showing reports allows us to search by city, zip code, neighborhood, bedrooms, price range, and more. For instance, let’s say I have a 5-bedroom home listed and it’s getting 1 showing per week. I might want to know if that’s good or normal. It stands to reason the 5-bedroom homes might receive less showings than 3-bedroom homes, so lumping all the data together doesn’t draw a true comparison.

Pending Sales

Pending sales picked up in the last week. As we head into mid-January you would expect that they would. Pending sales are a barometer of potential future closings. This is why we track pending sales so strongly. What if there was a barometer for pending sales? We think there is. Obviously, you do not have pending sales without showings. Showings lead to pendings.

Pricing Benchmark Reports

The Ellis Team also has access to pricing benchmark reports. Perhaps we’ll do a future article on this. A pricing benchmark report compares the showings of our listings versus the competition. It also calculates the absorption rate to determine how long a property should take to sell versus the availability in the market. Additionally, our report shows your listing relative to your competition, so you can see if your home is priced correctly. The report will also give us price reduction data, so we know what other homeowners are doing and what percentage they are dropping their price.

Rear View Mirror

When you bring a home to market a Realtor typically looks at past sales. However, using past sales is like looking in the rear-view mirror. It tells you where the market has been, but it doesn’t always tell you where the market is going. The pricing benchmark reports and careful study of the showing patterns of competing listings, combined with up to the moment market data puts our sellers in a position to make better decisions.

When the market is on the move, you want to know about it before other sellers. Sellers whose home expired and failed to sell are astounded when they see the data. The reason most sellers overprice their home is because they lack data. The Realtor may be short on listings, so they don’t want to risk telling the seller what they need to hear in fear of losing the listing. When a seller shops for a Realtor, be careful not to select the Realtor who offers the highest price.

Highest Price

The Realtor doesn’t really offer anything. The buyer offers. If your price is too high, all you did was give your listing to a Realtor. Select the best Realtor based upon their track record, knowledge and experience. If you select the best Realtor, you’ll get the price right. And if the price isn’t right, the best Realtor will guide you on how to adjust. You want to sell your home for the most money. Partner with a great Realtor so your home doesn’t sit on the market and collect dust while your neighbors sell their home. Studies show, the longer your home sits on the market, the less price you will get in the end.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant online price.

Welcome to the Ellis Team property best buy list for SW Florida real estate. The Ellis Team has been a leader in SW Florida real estate sales for over 35 years and knows a good deal when they see one. We’ve sold over 5,000 homes locally in SW Florida.

Property Best Buy List Qualifications

 It wouldn’t be a property best buy list if any property could make the list. To qualify to be on the Ellis Team property best buy list a property must be deemed a best buy by one of our associates.  Several criteria are used to earn this designation. We look for outstanding value and features. A home may be the least expensive home in a neighborhood but doesn’t necessarily have to be. A home could offer an unbelievable number of features compared to nearby homes or be located on a lot that cannot be duplicated and therefore exemplifies value by its unique nature and price.

Best buy properties would be properties that either our team has showed or previewed for specific clients or properties that score well on paper. This does not mean that our team has inspected the property or warrants the value in any way. There could be many factors including condition, title, permitting, etc. that we wouldn’t be aware of unless a buyer completed the home investigation process. On paper, or at first glance, we’ve identified properties that appear to be of great value and warrant further investigation.

Who Gets the Best Buy Property List?

Nobody gets the entire list. This list is developed internally by Ellis Team members and is meant to assist buyers utilizing our services. We listen to a buyer’s needs and select homes from MLS and our internal list that meets those needs. There wouldn’t be a reason to give access to the entire list because it would not meet every buyer’s needs and would have properties in all price ranges.

What Types of Property Makes the Best Buy Property List?

We have vacant land, single family homes, condos, and residential income properties that qualify to make the list. If we have absences in a category, it simply means we haven’t identified a best buy for that category today. It’s possible we just took some off the list because they recently closed or went pending. New properties could enter the market tomorrow, or an existing property could make a significant price reduction that it now qualifies to go on our list.

When a property is overpriced, it is invisible to buyers most likely to buy that property. When a price reduction occurs, the property becomes visible to more buyers, and in some cases, could be deemed a best buy.

If your home is on the market with another Realtor, don’t call us to see if your home is on the list. Your home may be a best buy, but the list is for Ellis Team clients, and we will not share if your home made the list or not.

What the List Is Not

Our list is not comprehensive. We have not been to every property, and we have not studied every property in SW Florida. We are constantly scanning for new opportunities.  Our list are properties that meet our criteria and properties we have shown or noticed through searches. We may compare these properties to similar nearby properties and/or utilize computerized valuation models. Either way, our internal list is a model that suggests a property might be worth checking out.

Buyers

If you’re interested in purchasing a home for a good value, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com. You can register and one of our buyer specialists can listen to your wants and help you find a best buy.  Or you can search on your own for Free.

Sellers

You can go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com and get your home’s online value for Free. We have additional valuation models for your home as well that we can email you. All you have to do is ask.

The Ellis Team is active in the market and shows or views homes practically every day. We know the market, and if you’re looking for a Best Buy, we can help you learn the market too.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!

Have you heard about these buy now refinance free later offers lenders are offering?  Do they make sense? Let’s explore what these are and if they make sense for you.

Buy Now Refinance Free Later

Is the refinance later part really free? It depends on how you look at it. If by free you mean no cost to the borrower and the rate and payment goes down, then yes, it is free. Could the borrower receive an even lower rate if they paid their fees, the answer is yes. So, in a sense, it did cost the borrower versus the rate they could have gotten.

Let’s break it down. There are closing costs associated with financing or refinancing a home. There is a possible appraisal, title insurance, doc stamps on the note, and intangible tax on the note. These fees must be paid somehow. The lender can pay them for you, but they typically roll them into the mortgage rate, or what they call the spread.

This cost could equal as much as half percent to three quarter percent in the rate from the lender I asked. Let’s say you have a 7.5% mortgage on your current property. Rates go down to 6.5%. If the cost for a no closing cost refinance is half percent, you could refinance your current rate of 7.5% down to 7% and it wouldn’t cost you anything. You’d be wise to take that deal, wouldn’t you?  And if rates went down to 6%, you could do it again and receive a new refinance of 6.5%, and it wouldn’t cost you anything.

You could keep doing this every time rates went down. Perhaps this is why refinance applications are up 7.6% this week over last week. Homeowners are refinancing their existing rates and saving money. For anyone that purchased in the last year or so, this could be an excellent strategy to save money.

Pro Tip Strategy

When rates begin dropping it will create more buyer demand. Right now, buyers have excellent choices in housing, and sellers are more willing to deal or pay concessions this year than last. Once buyers flood back into the market, sellers will be less accommodating.

Wouldn’t it make more sense buying a home today with excellent inventory options rather than fighting more buyers down the road for the best properties? Once you’ve secured your home, you’ve locked in your housing costs. The landlord cannot raise your rent and housing prices won’t go up for you because you’ve already purchased. If the rate goes down, you can refinance it at no cost to you. If rates go up, you’re locked in.

How to Finance

Should you take the offers I’ve heard on the radio that say buy today and we’ll refinance you for free down the road? The lender is either putting building costs into your rate now, in which case you’d be paying a higher rate today, or they’ll add it later.  I would not select the added cost now if I were purchasing. Personally, I would wait and just deal with it later. What if rates don’t go down enough, soon enough? You paid extra money upfront for something you may not use. The costs are the same, so why not pay it when you use it? And, as we discussed, are you really paying it if you receive a benefit later and it costs you nothing to lower your payment?

Always Call the Ellis Team

We have lenders we work with that can help you make the best decision. If you want, we can offer advice too. We are not loan officers, but when we hear your story, we can help guide you to the lenders that have good choices for you.

Why Wait?

Financially, we don’t see a reason to wait for rates to come down. While you wait for rates to move lower you face increased competition from other buyers.  We have a limited window to take advantage before other buyers figure this out. Give us a call at 239-489-4042 and get a jump on the competition, and lock in your housing costs. Once we do that, things can only get better. You won’t be at the mercy of your landlord, interest rates, or other buyers bidding against you.

Search the MLS like a pro.

The Ellis Team has Two Locations to Serve you. Call us first so we can make sure we have someone to help you.

Fort Myers

12840 University Dr

239-489-4042

Cape Coral

3208 Chiquita Blvd S

239-540-9070