Is it just me or does it seem like everybody is asking about future home price appreciation rates for SW Florida? Maybe it’s because we are in real estate, but it does seem to be a topic discussed more often.

It is dangerous to predict where the market will go. It tends to go where it wants to regardless of where you want it to or think it should. Zillow recently admitted it cannot predict future home price appreciation rates. If a big company cannot do it, why would anyone think they can?

The truth is nobody can. And yet, all of us have a lot more knowledge than Zillow and could probably do a better job. They tried to analyze home values and future prices on a national scale, and we all know real estate is local. There are some factors in play we have never seen before, so some of the traditional economic truths may not apply 100%.

Positive Factors

The truth is, Florida is desirable to many people across America, like never before. We have always been desirable in terms of sunshine, weather, and no state income tax. Today, it is much more than that.

We are not taking any political stand. All we can do is report what we hear buyers saying.  Buyers moving to Florida feel Governor DeSantis is a rock star and they appreciate the way Florida has handled lockdowns, mandates, and taxes.  I am sure we do not hear from some buyers who would never move here because they disagree, however the net migration into the state speaks for itself.  Going forward, we do not see this changing, and this is a plus for Florida’s housing market.

Florida is open for business and businesses are choosing to move here. We are seeing businesses and work from home families moving to Florida, and this trend should continue as well.

Interest rates are still low. Low rates are good for real estate markets.

Negative Factors

Rates are expected to rise. Rising rates cost the buyer purchasing power, so in a balanced market that eventually effects sellers. We are not in a balanced market or even close to it now.

Vaccine mandates are causing people to lose their jobs.  If the mandates stick in the courts, this could eventually trim the buyer pool as they must live off savings.  Already we are hearing about US savings accounts ballooning $4 Billion during the lockdown and that number is back to even now that stimulus has ended for unemployed in the lockdown.  This should force more to go back to work, and we saw signs of that in the latest jobs report.  If new mandates kick in January 4^th, it could change the savings rates.

Inflation is like a hidden tax on consumers.  Many are seeing a rise in paychecks. Those gains are being eaten up by rising gas, food, shipping, housing, automobile, and virtually any other expense you can think of. Inflation is outpacing income.  As companies are forced to raise wages, it increases inflation even more. It is a never-ending cycle that must end, or it will not help the real estate market.

Predicting the Future

As you can see, predicting future home price appreciation rates was never easy, and with new forces in effect it is virtually impossible now.

We see interest rates rising in 2022 so that should be a motivating factor for buyers. We see good things for Florida for the next several years. The jury is still out for the rest of the country. We suspect many markets will do very well while some may lag. If buyers are waiting for home prices to fall off a cliff, they might be sorely disappointed. If sellers are waiting for another year of 20-30% price gains, they might be disappointed too.

When you are ready to buy or sell, Always Call Sande or Brett Ellis at the Elis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500  Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to find your home’s value, or www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS like a pro.

Good luck, and Happy buying and selling!

Southwest Florida home sales prices stabilized in the 3^rd quarter. Statistically, homes prices were neither increasing nor decreasing to end the quarter.

If you look at the graph, Southwest Florida is subject to seasonality in prices, and we are entering a time when home prices traditionally start climbing again. Covid threw a monkey wrench into the term seasonality.  For the past year and a half, it was hard to tell what season is anymore.

Borders Opening Up

Canadians are finally being allowed back in the country starting in November. While we have seen this announced before it has never really happened like they said. More buyers are flocking to Florida from other higher tax states, so it will be interesting to see how this affects demand going forward.

We are also watching inflation, interest rates, and supply chain issues. Home builders may find it difficult going forward to find components to build homes. Nationwide, we have a shortage of homes and Covid did not help builders build enough homes.  Now that we are seeing worsening supply chain issues, you must wonder what affect this will have on new home prices.

Of course, interest rates have been rising and are expected to rise in to 4% in 2022 by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates were about 2.75% not long ago. A 1% rise in rates robs a buyer about 11% purchasing power. When buyers can afford less, they don’t have as much money to bid on homes.

We have an influx of buyers flush with cash and large down payments moving to Florida. This is squeezing out some homebuyers from the process, but not necessarily all buyers and sellers are still getting their price. Instead of having 20-50 buyers bidding on each home we may only have 3-10.

Demand Outpaces Inventory Supply

The graph agrees with what we are seeing on the streets.  Many buyers feel like prices went up so much and they feel a correction is right around the corner.  Home buyers may be disappointed because demand is still stronger than supply. Yes, prices may have moderated and stabilized, but it does not mean prices must come down. In fact, Southwest Florida was undervalued for years and may not be more accurately valued.

The real question becomes, how does the national economy play out in the next year? The other important question is, how does Florida look business wise compared to other states? We cannot answer the first question, but we can tell you home buyers are voting with their pocketbooks.  The vote is in, and Florida is attractive enough to pack up everything and move here. We do not see this trend changing. If anything, it may be picking up steam.

Why Buy Now

As you can see, we have some wildcards in play, and if anyone can tell you how things will play out for certain, they are smarter than we are. What we can say is buyers should buy sooner rather than later, because waiting can cost you. We can also say prices may not come down. They could, but they could also increase due to higher costs and not enough supply.

This truly is one of those rare moments in time where it can cost both buyer and seller to wait. If you’ve been thinking about making a move, now might be your ideal time. Call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 and we can talk about your situation.

Or, visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to find out what your home is worth.  To search the MLS like a professional does, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com Our site is updated every few minutes, so you are looking at the best data.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

We are studying preliminary sales numbers for August from MLS. The numbers suggest a soft landing for sales prices in SW Florida.

Golf courses in Florida are mostly flat because much of Florida’s terrain is flat. Up North, many golf courses have elevated greens and greens that are downhill.  This past year our local real estate market felt like buyers were having to hit elevated shots to an elevated green to get their offer accepted.

Golfers know that for every elevated green there may be future shots to a downhill green.  Buyers have the same assumptions as golfers.  They believe what goes up must come down.

Soft Landing for Sales Prices

The reality is, the elevated green is the new level playing field.  While we will still have multiple offers on properties due to low inventory, we don’t believe the overall market is going to climb like it did this past year.  In fact, we are already seeing in the numbers a leveling off.  This is a trend that has been happening for about 3 months, but because it doesn’t feel like a flattening market, sellers and agents have not recognized it.

If you speak with real estate agents lately, they will tell you the market has cooled in the last few weeks.  The market has not cooled, it has leveled. When sellers bring a property to market correctly priced, there are many buyers.  When a property enters the market overpriced, we don’t have 50 buyers jumping at opportunity to bid on it.

Diminishing Price Increases

We saw 36% price increases year over year, but as we enter future months those will begin to diminish as prices have stopped rising.  We will still see year over year gains until one of two things happen.  As prices are stagnant, we will either run out of months and stats will show a leveling or the market will move once again.

If the market does not make a move, you will see prices staying the same.  We are already seeing this in the month over month prices.  Unofficial numbers for August show an average sales price of $466,281 and a median sales price of $365,000.  July 2021 official numbers showed an average sales price of $469,072 and a median sales price of $360,000.  In essence, the average price went down about $3,000 and median price went up about $5,000.  Keep in mind, these are still unofficial numbers.  There could be more sales reported from MLS participants from other boards throughout the state.

These numbers are believable though because we have been seeing this trend. Prices since April and May have leveled off.  Some is seasonal, and some is buyers have maxed out.

Sellers Should Sell Now

Listing inventory has leveled.  It’s not going up or down.  We are telling sellers now may be the time to sell. There is not much advantage in waiting now. We have low inventory.  Prices have stalled.  Interest rates are expected to climb when the Fed ends tapering.  This will put pressure on buyers and further cap future gains.  It just feels like this market is now fully valued unless something changes.

For years we said Florida was undervalued.  Today, it might be fairly valued.  We are not expecting prices to vary wildly.  We believe we are in a trading range.

Buyers should take advantage before rates rise and sellers should take advantage of the new normal in pricing.  Both sides can do well if they do not get greedy.  Waiting for a better opportunity tomorrow just doesn’t sound like the best plan.

If you’d like to talk about the market, call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLHomevalues.com to track your home’s value monthly.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.  We are here to help!

While analyzing current market statistics we see September inventory levels rise slightly in select price ranges.  Six out of nine price ranges saw an increase in the month’s supply of inventory while five of nine saw an increase in the raw number of listings.

September Inventory Levels Rise Slightly

Four out of nine price ranges saw an increase in the number of sales.  In a hot market, you can only sell what you have.  As prices increased, some homes graduated to the next price level which increased their inventory, and increased chances of a sale in that price range.

With multiple offers, sometimes we would see a listing in one price range result in a sale in a higher price range because it sold over asking price.  For this reason, we must be careful about analyzing the numbers and interpreting what they really mean.

Inventory Still Historically Low

The overall market still stands at less than 1 month supply, which is low.  A buyer can assume any listing in any of the price ranges could be receiving multiple offers if they were priced correctly coming to the market.  There are some overpriced listings, and no matter how hot the market is, may never sell.

As more listings enter the market, buyers have slightly more choices.  The good ones still get swallowed up fast.  It is important for buyers to have their ducks in a row before they go shopping.

We monitor the monthly numbers, and we are studying the weekly numbers.  We saw a 9-home decrease in the weekly numbers which means more homes came off the market than went on in the last week.  Because this market is so hot, we expect volatility in those weekly numbers.  It could also be sellers were waiting until after Labor Day to place their home on the market while buyers did not wait.

Interest rates rose slightly in the past week.  Rising rates increase the cost of borrowing for buyers.  Initially rising rates adds motivation to buyers to purchase before rates go higher.  This assumes buyers were sitting on the fence.  In our current market it is more likely buyers could not find a home as the winning bid, so they settled for a rental for another year.

Rents are sky high currently. As tenants come off lease we expect them to look to purchase if they can find a home.  As the eviction moratorium abates, we expect rent prices could come down.

Eventually rising rates will hurt home buyers.  The wildcard will be if home buyers soften due to rising borrowing costs, how does northern buyers relocating here compensate for that?  This past year financed buyers were not winning many bids anyway so rising rates would have made no difference.  If buyers continue their march to Florida, rising rates might not matter.  We will keep our eye on migration patterns.

Is Now a Good Time to Sell?

Many homeowners are contemplating if now might be the time to sell.  Prices have risen a good amount, and some are surprised at how much their property is worth.  Homeowners also realize we are not likely to see price gains like this going forward.  Nobody knows the future and where prices will go. We think it is safe to say prices will not rise 36% in one year again anytime soon.

If you have been wondering if now might be the time to sell, call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 We will be happy to speak with you and discuss your options.  Some sellers appreciate our Free and easy home valuation tool where you can see your home’s value online instantly.  The system will also email you updates every month so you can track your home’s value going forward.  This is great for people who do not want to sell now but are interested in their home’s value.

Good luck and Happy Home Buying and Selling!

See last week’s article “Local Home Sales Highest on Record“

If you look at the graph it would appear that real estate prices leveled off the past few months.  Is that really the case?

Median and average prices are up 36% in June over 2020.  That is a huge gain and expecting future gains like this is not sustainable.  Let’s dive into 3 key price components to get an idea on where this market is headed.

1. Most of the price gains you see reported monthly have already occurred. For instance, May’s numbers were up 38.7% over last year. June’s numbers are a continuation of those gains that have occurred because they are year over year, not month over month.
2. It is not uncommon for prices to adjust backward month over month in June. Traditionally April and May are the biggest price months and prices slip back in summer. It is the seasonality of the market as to when higher priced homes sell in SW Florida.  This graph doesn’t go far enough back to show this.
3. Listings are on the uptick even though we are still too low. Listing inventory peaked in February 2019 and has been on a steady decline since then. Typically, inventory does not pick up in April, May, and June, but it has this year. Is the increasing inventory enough to make a dent in this market? Not yet, it is still way too low.

So, what can we take from all of this? Prices can continue to gain going forward, but not at the 30% plus rate.  Future price gains depend on listing inventory, interest rates, the economy, and northern states buyers continuing to see Florida as a better alternative to where they are now. We doubt real estate prices leveled off, but gains will be more moderate going forward.

Inventory is Rising

Listing inventory is rising.  Home inventory does not usually rise this time of year, however Covid may have influenced timing is seller’s decisions. Many sellers were prevented from coming to Florida to get their home ready.  Others did not want to sell while they occupied the home during a pandemic.  It is possible Covid put off some sales decisions and altered the timing of when listings hit the market.

Inventory levels will be something we watch going forward.  It is quite possible all the typical historical seasonality and trends will be off until the economy and real estate market rebalances itself.

Is Now the Time to Sell? 

If you are a seller, now is a good time to sell.  Inventory is rising but not to an extent that will hurt home sellers.  We are still seeing multiple offers on properties.  Buyers still outnumber sellers.  Sellers hold the advantage right now, and it is always more fun to sell when you have the advantage.  When buyers hold the advantage, they do not care about how much you want or need for the home.

Buyers today are not in competition with the seller.  They are in competition with other buyers for the home they want.  When the market turns, the seller will be in competition with other sellers.  Right now, sellers have little competition.

After the Fall, season will be here before we know it.  We do not know what the Covid landscape will look like, which states will be open, or if we will have Covid issues at all.  Right now, we do, and the economy may tighten down again.

We are writing this article before the Fed releases comments from their July meeting.  How the markets react to these comments and the future of interest rates could impact the stock and real estate markets.

If you have contemplated selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 and get the facts.  Home prices are going up, but for how long?  If you just want a quick home price for your home, go to www.SWFLhomevaules.com Our online value system will give you a good estimate of your home’s value, and it will email you every month the price changes.  Even if you don’t agree with the actual estimate, you will be able to see which direction the market is moving for your home.

Don’t Settle for Appraised Value

Of course, Sande and Brett Ellis will be happy to visit your home and give you a more detailed value for your home if you would like.  We can show you how our marketing is getting sellers more than the price estimates of their home and how we generate multiple buyers.  Don’t just sell for appraised value when you can get more in this market.  You need the right Realtor to do this. Brett and Sande have over 30+ years and over 5,000 transactions experience, so we know our stuff.

We look forward to helping you!