Category Archives: Fort Myers Real Estate

News and information relating to Fort Myers real estate market

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

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Inflation may help home buyers in the long run.  Here is why. Currently home buyers can borrow right now at less than the cost of inflation.

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Typically, the Fed wishes to raise interest rates higher than the cost of inflation to help lower inflation. Right now, a borrower can get a 30-year loan in the low 5% range. Inflation has been raging at over 9%. That’s almost a 4 percent spread between the cost of borrowing and inflation.

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Secondly, we know that real estate appreciates long term at higher than the cost of inflation. See our article back in May titled “Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times”

If housing appreciates faster than inflation, and you can borrow currently at less than the cost of inflation, it makes sense to buy what you can today.  This is a great long-term strategy. Unfortunately, most people worry about the short-term. Rising inflation hurts the economy and purchasing power, and this leads to pain in the short-term. The Fed’s mission is to quell demand, and that is true for all spending.

Housing can be hurt in the short-term and this can put negative pricing pressure on homes. Home prices could come down some, but keep in mind we have a shortage of homes being built, and that is getting worse because builders are slowing down building in the middle of a recession. Long-term it will be very hard to keep housing prices down because the demand will be there when interest rate pressure eases.

Risky Strategy

Some buyers will try to time the market for when home prices fall. The problem with this strategy is if home prices do fall some, interest rates could also rise, which will negate all benefits of waiting. Higher borrowing costs can outweigh any potential price savings. Because borrowing rates are far below inflation, now is a good time to jump on that rate.

We are still seeing many buyers moving to Florida. We are also seeing some buyers moving out of Florida as their employers call them back into work. Remote work has been good for Florida real estate, but that party is ending for some companies.

What will be fascinating to watch will be how many companies decide to relocate to Florida in the coming years. On a regular basis we hear of more and more companies making the move to Florida. While companies may call workers back to the office, more of those offices could be in Florida in the future.

Inflation is hard on everyone. To tamp it down, the Fed is forced to do some awful things. Sadly.  Doing nothing is worse than cracking down on inflation, so something must be done. We believe lowering the M2 money supply would do far better than simply raising rates, but this is where we are.

The labor market is showing signs of weakness going forward. Once this occurs, the other obstacle will be the price of oil. Many believe oil could rebound to $150/barrel. This will not help inflation if this occurs.

Inflation adds to the cost of everything, so one day when construction does pick up again, presumably it will be at higher prices due to higher costs. Some commodities like lumber are decreasing, but petroleum goes into so many things like clothing, roofing, roads, etc. The next 30-90 days will be pivotal for oil prices, so keep an eye on that.

Smart Money on Real Estate

The bottom line is, with all the uncertainty out there, real estate may not be a bad bet. Sure, home prices could rise or fall.  In the long-term, those that own real estate are far better off than those who don’t. Currently you can leverage today’s rates to increase long-term value.

People always talk about borrowing costs in relation to today’s purchasing power. It might be time to think about long-term purchasing power and how to accomplish that. This moment in time might be that window.

Search the MLS like a Realtor at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Check your home’s property value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com or call Brett or Sande at 239-310-6500

Good luck and Happy Selling!

 

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

206 SE 1st Pl Cape Coral Florida

Cape Coral Open House
206 SE 1st Pl

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

12157 Lucca St Unit 201 Fort Myers Florida

Sunday Open House
12157 Lucca St Unit 201

Home Sale Prices Under Pressure From Rising Interest Rates

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Recent sales numbers suggest local home sale prices under pressure from rising interest rates. Nationally we are seeing price resistance due to rising rates, so we decided to study the local market to see what is happening here.

Home Sale Prices Under Pressure

From the graph we can see both median and average home sale prices topped out around April to May. We must be careful here because there is seasonality to the market, and it is not uncommon to see this in normal years.

Preliminary July numbers show a median sales price in Lee County of $425,000 and an average sales price of $552,596. Keep in mind these numbers were pulled July 26th and do not incorporate a whole month.  It does give us an indication though of what we have seen the first 26 days of the month.  In June 2022 the media sales price was $449,950 and the average was $587,904.

Home Sale Prices Under Pressure

If these numbers hold up, that’s a big drop from June’s numbers. If true, this would support the cause that rising interest rates may have influenced home sale prices locally as well.

This makes sense because we have seen single family home inventory triple since Feb 15th.  This tells us supply is outpacing demand. Home prices are fabulous compared to what they were a few years ago if you are a seller, but they may not be what they were back in February.

Pricing for sellers will be critical with home sale prices under pressure from rising interest rates. We are writing this article before the Fed announces its interest rate decision and GDP numbers.  If GDP numbers come out negative for the second quarter, we can safely say the US is in a recession.

We are already seeing layoffs at companies nationwide. We are particularly concerned with potential layoffs in 2023 as that is when we believe the pain of rising interest rates will be most felt.  It is possible that the Fed will raise rates 75 to 100 basis points this week and mortgage rates could drop. If they do it is because the markets are anticipating recession into 2023.

Opportunity for Buyers Right Now

We believe there is a window for home buyers to lock in lower rates. Nobody knows what long term rates a few months from now will be, but mortgage rates have crept down in recent weeks. Mortgage rates are based of the 10-year note, and the 10-year note is lower than the 2-year note. This is what is referred to as an inverted yield curve, and this too is an indicator of a coming recession. Again, we may already be in one now. The question is, what will 2023 bring and how severe could it be?

The good news for buyers is rates have come down and selection of homes on the market has risen. Prices have come down too, and in the coming weeks we can report official numbers to verify what we are seeing.

If you have a property to sell, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. 239-310-6500 Marketing and proper pricing right now are key, and many Realtors have only been in the business a few years and do not have the experience in a market like this. Brett and Sande have been through many real estate cycles, so no matter what the future brings us, we know how to handle it.

If you’d like to track your home’s value over time, check out www.SWFLHomevalues.com It’s a neat website that will email you your home’s value each month.

Let’s Talk

We are here to talk. Many times, buyers and sellers have questions, and you need a Realtor with answers based on knowledge, statistics, and experience. This is not the time to hire a newer agent.

Call the name you know, the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty. Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Housing Production Deficit Increased to 3.79 Million Units

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According to a report by Up For Growth, the US housing production deficit increased to 3.79 million units in 2019, up from 1.65 million units in 2012. This means that we as a nation are not building enough housing to keep up with demand.

Housing Production Deficit Increased to 3.79 Million Units

This is not good news for renters, or home buyers. Prices are rising due to lack of supply at the same time interest rates are rising to quell demand. How do you quell housing demand?  People need a place to live in. Rising rates makes it harder for builders to build and sell at a profit, so they slow down or stop building, which exacerbates the problem.

Housing Production Deficit Increased

We have a map put out by Up For growth which shows state by state the amount of underproduction in 2019. Reasons vary by locale why. For instance, in Detroit, many homes are uninhabitable according to the report and they need new homes to replace them. Florida is a different story, as more and more people are moving to Florida and supply isn’t keeping up with demand.

Housing is a complex issue, and their report is 76 pages long addressing the issue. Suffice it to say, we need more housing, but the situation is only getting worse.

Should I Wait For Prices to Drop?

Many potential home buyers do not like their choices. Some will decide to rent another year in hopes home prices will come down.  This may not benefit them the way they think. Even if home prices declined 5-10%, their payment would still rise more than the price savings due to higher interest rates that may be coming.  Waiting in this scenario can cost them.

Secondly, a year from now they may be worse off.  While faced with the same decision next year, rents may be higher, because people need a place to live in while supply is not keeping up with demand. Never mind if everyone can afford it, enough people can which drives up the rents.

Additionally, while rents may go up, the potential risks don’t end there. The landlord may decide to sell the home before your lease is up, or simply not renew your lease. Remember, it is a lease. You do not own it. He or she that owns the property gets to make all the decisions, not the tenant.

Inflation Raises Future Costs to Build

Lastly, as inflation lingers, the cost to build a home in the future only goes up. Future supply will cost more. Home buyers can get on the equity train now even though the home costs more than it did a few years ago. Yes, interest rates are higher too, but you can’t go back and change time. You can refinance later if rates go down in the future, but the cost of the home probably isn’t going down. In real estate you marry the house and date the rate. Inflation is one of the reasons.

Inflation compounds as well. Each year the cost to construct new homes builds on the previous year’s costs. Over time, a $500,000 home today may cost substantially more to build later. Renters might be well served to get on the equity train sooner. Most tenants do not purchase because they are worried about their job, home prices, interest rates, down payment, repair costs, etc. The truth is all these same worries will be there in 1 year, 2 years, etc. The sooner you act, the sooner you get on the train.  If you lose your job, it will not matter if you are a renter or homeowner. The landlord will still kick you out if you do not pay rent.

You can search the MLS like a pro at www.LeeCountyOnline.com, or call one of our buyer specialists at 239-489-4042. Don’t forget about our Hurricane Party Prize Package. Deadline to enter is midnight July 25th. Simply go to www.Topagent.com to register to win this package.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Win our Hurricane Party Prize Package

New Ellis Team Featured Listings

11530 Timberline Cir

12157 Lucca St Fort Myers FL

Open House Sat 12-3 PM

 

July Housing Inventory Supply Grows to 1.9 Months

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July housing inventory supply grew to 1.9 months supply, up from 1.18 months back in May. The $250,000-$299,000 almost doubled from .23 months to .41 months in July.

July Housing Inventory Supply

July Housing Inventory Supply Grew

Every single category grew in supply, so it is across the board. The market has slowed from a few months ago. Everything over $600,000 grew in supply by over a month. Inventory is growing while closed sales are falling. Pending sales are also declining, which is a forward indicator of future closed sales.

Because we watch the weekly inventory levels and the pending sales, we had a pretty good idea what was going to happen.  We’ve been reporting that single family inventory bottomed out February 15th while condo inventory bottomed out February 8th.

Closed sales prices lag these other indicators, so we knew it was only a matter of months before it started showing up in the sales prices, assuming the trend continued. The trend has continued, so here we are.

Did you Have the Talk?

Realtors are forced to have honest conversations with sellers about where to price their home.  Nobody sees a major decline in prices like we had in 2006 and beyond, but we could see some declines as the economy possibly enters recession. We may have some hangover effects from rising interest rates as well. Some say the ultra-low interest rates allowed for prices to balloon where they did, and when you take those away you take away the home affordability and the market stops.

The market doesn’t really stop but it feels that way in a shift. Buyers are reluctant to pay today’s prices in fear of the market moving lower. Sellers tend to want yesterday’s prices and cling to last month’s headlines. Each side backs into their corner until the realization sets in. Until each side recognizes the market of the moment, a stalemate happens.

Both sides eventually agree that it is either time to buy or sell, and the sooner they do that the better off their family will be.  Right now, we are in the messy middle whereby each side has not figured that out yet. Sure, lots of sales are occurring, because the buyer and seller are motivated and accept the reality of today’s market. Others want to test the market by listing above the market, only to reduce again and again later.  Buyers are guilty too. Some lowball and strike out again and again. They feel frustrated but comforted by fact they’ll be able to pick up a home tomorrow at prices lower than today.

Lock in Interest Rate Now

The problem is when rates are going up, lower home sales prices tomorrow still cost more than higher priced homes today. Locking in those rates is crucial. We’ve had a temporary pause in rates as the market reacts to recession numbers, but those interest rate hikes could pick back up again in a few weeks.

Buyers are in a better position today than a few weeks ago. Inventory has grown while rates have slipped back about .75%. Selection is better and purchasing power increased about 8.25%.  When rates go back up in a few weeks, that 8.25% purchasing power will be wiped out.

If you have a house to sell, call the Ellis Team at 239-310-6500. If you are interested in buying, call our buyer specialists at 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com

Our team is here to help you navigate this tricky market. Our agents are trained on market conditions and how this affects you.

Don’t forget our Hurricane Party Giveaway too. Head on over to www.Facebook.com/Ellisteam to find out how you can win the hurricane party package which includes a generator, snacks, gas can, flashlight, batteries, and other stuff.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Hurricane Party Prize Package

Hurricane Party Prize Package

 

Local Pending Sales Drop as Inventory Rises

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Local pending sales drop as inventory rises which caused the month’s supply of inventory to rise 70% in May over last year. New pending sales dropped 11% in May 2022 versus May 2021, while overall pending inventory fell 11.5%

The drop in pending sales comes at the exact same time as inventory rising to 57.1% year over year in May. This explains why we are seeing price reductions. New supply to the market is outpacing demand. We still have excellent demand, but the market is not absorbing all the new listings coming to the market.

Local Pending Sales Drop
Local pending sales drop as inventory rises

The month’s supply of inventory rose to 70% to 1.7 months supply. 1.7 months is a historically low figure, and yet we know the supply is outpacing demand.  This number will not stay at 1.7 months’ supply.

Price Reductions

Today I looked and there were 2,629 single family homes on the market in Lee County. 947 of the 2,629 homes on the market recently had a price reduction. This means 36% of all homes on the market today have had a price reduction since they listed the home.

Local pending sales drop as inventory rises
7-Day Market Watch

The most fun time to be a seller statistically was back in February.  Don’t get us wrong, it’s still a great time to be a seller, and homes are selling well, if it is priced correctly.

The question is, is it more fun to be a seller today than it will be a month or two from now?  We know it was more fun a few months ago, and by the trend we are seeing in the numbers, it very well could be more fun today than in the future.

We have been telling sellers for months, the sooner you decide to sell the better off you may be. This is true today as well. We are studying preliminary sales numbers for June, and it looks to us that median sales prices will be down against May numbers.

Sales Prices Lower

Official May median price was $469,950. I just pulled up all single-family home sales in Lee County as of June 28th, the day this article was written, and median sales price came in at $449,950. That is a $20,000 drop if the number holds up. Keep in mind, there are some outstanding sales yet to be recorded for the month.

Average sales prices look to be lower in June as well. Official May average was $658,886 and the preliminary average is $598,413. That is a $60,000 drop. Again, there are some outstanding sales that could change these numbers.

Top Dollar

While we have an excellent market, the data suggest the market is cooling. Your Top Dollar may be today, and every day you wait may cost you money. If you are thinking of selling, sooner may be better than waiting. If your home is on the market, adjusting your price to get it sold today may be better than waiting. If the market continues cooling, it may not be as fun a few months from now.

A word of caution though. Median and average home sale prices traditionally decline about this time of year, so don’t make too much out of it.  More luxury homes sell in first quarter every year. What is different this year is inventory is rising.

The Fed is also tightening, and the lending market has risen. We may be in a recession, or close to one. With all these events happening simultaneously it may be safe to assume prices have stalled until we get back to a lower interest rate environment.

If you have a property to sell, you should talk to Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We study the market and can give you up to the minute advice. When the market changes you need an experienced agent who’s been through a shifting market and knows how to handle it. Check your home’s property value on our site at www.SWFLhomevalues.com

Good luck and have a Happy July 4th Weekend!

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Saturday 12-3 PM

2007 SW 30th Ter

4 Bed 2 Bath Pool Home

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

 

Two Types of Sellers in Today’s Real Estate Market

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Currently we have two types of sellers in today’s real estate market. We will go in depth on both and explain how each outlook can impact both the buyers’ and sellers’ future.

Two types of sellers in today's real estate market

Fearful of Market

These buyers respect the market and analyze facts. They tend to be motivated to get top dollar and do not want to miss this market. They realize the best may be behind us and they get that. Sellers in this category don’t want to be left holding the bag if the market drops further. They have watched inventory more than double since February and on its way to tripling by July at the current pace. These sellers know it is more fun to sell when there are fewer listings to compete with and they do not like that more competition is coming.

Interest rates have risen which has priced many buyers out of their current price range. Suddenly the homes in their new lower price range do not look as attractive as what they looked at before and they lose motivation. Many buyers have checked out and given up on the market at these prices. If they were on the fence with pricing, as many were, rising rates through them over the top.

Want the Price From 3 Months Ago

The second type of buyer wants the prices from 3 months ago, and some say throw in another $30,000 for good measure because those prices back then weren’t quite enough. These sellers lack motivation and want what they want without regard to market conditions. A few of these sellers still might get their price if their home is unique or offers something of value not readily available. Certain waterfront homes, or newer or updated homes might fetch top dollar plus simply because we still have a decent market, and no like kind inventory is competing with them.  As time goes on this will become more difficult once the market catches on and headlines change.

Headlines still compare year over year pricing, but we believe that will change in the coming months. We study both the year over year and the month over month statistics. It is possible we will see the month over month sales start to level off with the rising rates, and later it will show up in the year over year sales.

Because prices went up so much year over year late in 2021 and early 2022, we may not see the trend until many months from now, but the trend can still be there. Therefore, we will be studying the month over month numbers to get a quick blink on what the market is doing in real-time.

We already see inventory rising, less offers per property, and less cash offers. The financial markets are in turmoil, and it has worked its way into the real estate market. Consumers are not confident in the economy, and it is impacting buying decisions.

Thinking of Selling?

If you are thinking of selling, ask yourself which type of seller are you. Do you want to sell sooner before other sellers enter the market, or do you believe the market is still on fire like back in March? Marketing becomes more important in a changing market. When we meet, we can discuss the latest Ellis Team Current Market Index and what that means going forward. Remember, we developed this index that accurately predicts the forward direction of the market before it shows up in the numbers.

We are happy to share this with each of our clients. Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 and we can discuss your options or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant value of your property with a confidence score. The higher the confidence score, the more accurate the valuation. If your property receives 85 or better, the system is confident in your number. You can watch your value change each month.

Good luck and Happy Home Selling! And please, vote for us as Best Real Estate Team in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral News Press polls.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

3951 Spotted Eagle Way

3951 Spotted Eagle Way Fort Myers Florida
Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2007 SW 30th Ter

2007 SW 30th Ter Cape Coral Florida
Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

 

Two Types of Sellers

Inflation Rocks Financial Markets This Week Forcing Fed’s Hand

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Staggering inflation rocks financial markets this past week essentially forcing the Fed’s hand going forward.  This caused interest rates to skyrocket to over 6.625% for well qualified buyers, up from about 5.375% the week prior.

Inflation Rocks Financial Markets This Week

We are writing this article before the Fed makes its decision on rates. Some believe the Fed will raise rates 75 basis points while other believe 100 is in order. Essentially the overall market has priced in the anticipated Fed decision.

Of course, the stock market reacted negatively because rising rates is not good for earnings, which will impact stock prices.  The yield curve on the 10-year note and 2-year note inverted again this week briefly, which signifies what we saw earlier in the year. The financial markets believe we are headed for recession. The Fed will be forced to put us into a recession to curb demand and get inflation under control.

Experts disagree on how high rates need to go to curb demand. As oil continues to rise it adds inflationary pressure to everything, so getting oil prices under control is crucial. Failing that, the Fed’s job will be much tougher. As we write this article oil prices are at $123.50/barrel. Many believe it will go to $150, and if it does, the Fed may need to raise rates significantly more throughout the year.

None of this is good for the financial markets, and it’s not good for real estate either, in the short run. In the long run we know real estate holds up as a hedge against inflation. Home prices long term outpace inflation, and we have written an article on that. See our post from May 26th  Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times which covers that.

The game plan for buyers right now is get in before interest rates rise further, as rising rates will cost you much more than a possible price decrease from sellers in the short term. See our video from April 15th  Better to Buy Now or Wait? on our YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/Topagent which shows you exactly how much it costs by waiting in a rising rate environment.

We have been predicting this day for the past several months and advising our clients. There are no surprises for the informed. We always say, hiring the right Realtor makes all the difference, especially in a shifting market. What you do next will determine your financial future.

If you are thinking of selling, knowing the latest statistics will help. You must price your home for the market we are in and for the market we are going into. Some sellers are holding on to the market from 3 months ago, and those strategies may not work. Gone are the days of throwing up a listing and expecting 20 multiple cash offers. You may need to look at financed offers and appraisals.

If you are a buyer, you may want to get ahead of this. More listings are coming on the market to choose from, and waiting can seriously cost you. If you see a home that meets your needs and is priced correctly, you may want to make your move. Waiting for a seller to reduce their price 5% might cost you 15%.  This is what we just witnessed this past week. Waiting absolutely cost financed buyers.

Our team is not here to sell you anything. We present the facts and let you make the decisions. We do so in a factual and logical way so you can make the best decisions for your family. Most people appreciate the truth, and that’s just what you’ll get when you work with our team. If you’re thinking of selling, talk to Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com

If you’d like to buy before rates go up again, visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com or call us at 239-489-4042. We’re here to help. Remember, when the markets get rocked, stay calm and work with a professional.

Market Turmoil

Housing Inventory Trend Line Headed Upward

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Lee County housing inventory trend line is on the rise. Local inventory has grown above the trend line for 6 straight weeks. Housing inventory has risen for 17 straight weeks.

Housing Inventory Trend Line Headed Upward
Housing inventory trend line headed upward

This tells us the top of the frenzy probably occurred back in February. Agents across the county are noticing less offers on their listings, and the upward pricing pressure has abated.  We will still see higher prices year over year as the numbers come in, but we may not see substantial price increase month over month going forward.

The housing inventory trend line is a leading indicator for the local real estate market. Inventory levels tells us about the relationship between supply and demand. With inventory rising, supply is outpacing demand at these prices. Therefore, we are seeing so many price reductions in our market.

Sellers Pay Attention

Home sellers may have missed the peak of the market, but it is still a great time to sell. Housing inventory currently stands at 1.43 months supply which is still fantastic. We just do not have the upward pricing pressure fueling large price gains like we used to.

The best indicator we have is the Ellis Team Current Market Index. While we are no longer publishing this live data to the public, we can tell you that it almost doubled since April 26th, which was just 6 short weeks ago. Ellis Team clients get access to this data which is crucial in making proper pricing decisions in a changing market.

Focus on Marketing

Today sellers are hiring agents with a focus on marketing. The past two years we noticed sellers were interviewing agents and sometimes selecting the lowest cost agent. Perhaps they felt any agent could sell a home in the heated market, and that was true. Not all could get Top Dollar, but they could sell the home for full price.  There is a big difference in the two.

Today marketing matters again. Sellers are not looking for the cheapest way to sell but rather the agent who can fully market the home and get Top Dollar. When the buyers fall off, marketing becomes more important to sellers. As inventory grows sellers know they must make their home stand out. It used to be that buyers were in competition with other buyers for the best homes. Now buyers have more choices, and we are heading towards sellers being in competition with other sellers for the best buyers.

Home prices have exploded in recent years and sellers do not want to jeopardize cashing in at these prices by hiring an agent that simply puts their home in MLS. When inventory grows, buyers shop online, and homes begin to look alike. Each home has its unique features, and you’ve got to create ways for that home to be seen by buyers who want those features.

Target Marketing

This is why we target market. Placing a home on Zillow or Realtor.com is not going to sell the home when inventory grows. We take our listings and place them in interested buyer’s inbox, social feed, and search online. Our marketing contains various target sets depending on which listing we are advertising.

We can reach buyers in out-of-town markets who want to buy here. Why advertise to only local buyers when you can target out of state buyers too?

This is the difference between selling a home to just one buyer or reaching many buyers from all over. Do you think you would get more money if you had one buyer interested or dozens of buyers interested?

If you are thinking of selling and want Top Dollar in today’s market, we should talk. Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We’ll be happy to discuss your situation and show you how our marketing can give you an advantage. Real Estate agents aren’t cheap, so why not hire the best? A great agent can actually put more money in your pocket at closing!

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Father’s Day Giveaway

Oil Prices and Housing Market Direction Tied Together

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Could future oil prices and housing market direction be tied together? We are beginning to think future oil prices may dictate a lot of things, including the direction of the housing market.

Oil Prices and Housing Market Direction

Up until now, the stock market and housing market has been influenced by the market’s perception around the Fed and 10-year interest rates. How the Fed navigates inflation versus throwing the economy into recession has steered the markets up until now. Of course, food and energy costs are a part of inflation. The thinking has been, either higher interest rates will cure inflation or higher prices will.

Dependent on Oil

There is an old saying in finance that says nothing cures high prices like high prices. This assumes demand will soften for an item once it reaches a certain point. The problem with oil is, we are dependent on it. Not only do we use oil for our cars, but it is also used at many everyday things like clothing, roofing material, etc. It is a very long list.

High prices may not cure high prices because it is a need, not a want. The fear is the Fed may be forced to raise rates higher than Wall St thinks. This would be a double whammy because the consumer is not only being hit with higher costs everywhere, but they will also be hit with rising rates.

This will have an effect on housing prices going forward if this happens. Many believe it is already having an effect. Back on February 26th I wrote about if oil got to $115/barrel I didn’t think it would be good for our economy. In essence, it just felt like anything north of $115 would be a breaking point for the economy. As I write this article, oil futures stand at $119/barrel.

Scary Thing

The scary thing is oil could easily go to $130/barrel or worse. If that happens, $5 plus gas is on the table, and I just do not believe our economy can take that for long. This will also cause the Fed to be more aggressive than they have in the past, and Wall St has not priced that in yet.

The Fed has worked hard to placate Wall St, but the jig may be up soon. Do I feel the Fed has been honest about inflation to this point? No, I do not. But who am I to call them out? It does not matter what I have thought through this process. What I am saying is, time may be out, and they may be forced to deal with this.

It is also possible the Fed has some geniuses that know more than we do.  I should hope so. Maybe they have a better handle on this than we think. If they are right, real estate should be just fine and interest rates should settle down within a year.

Lots of Upcoming Economic News Expected

For the next two weeks people will be talking about the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, core inflation, unemployment numbers, workforce participation, and company earnings.  These are all the things that give us clues as to the economy and inflation, and the direction the Fed might take.

For my part, I’m watching oil. I think it’s as simple as that. I’ll analyze the other things once oil prices are under control. Until then, I believe we’re just massaging numbers and fooling ourselves as to how great things are and not dealing with the issues.  If we get oil prices down, the Fed has more choices. Failing that, watch out.

If rates rise, it will cost buyers more. Rising buyer costs ultimately hurt sellers because it limits what buyers can afford to pay. That leads to lower price gains, or reduced prices, depending on how soon the Fed acts.

For now, watch oil. If you have real estate to sell, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a free instant analysis of your home.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

New Listing in Cape Coral- Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

3457 NE 11th Ave

Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times

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One of my finance professors in college named housing best hedge against inflation and I never forgot that.  He said tangible assets like real estate, gold, silver, etc. retain their value as the dollar is devalued due to inflation.

Construction Costs Going Up

In fact, as inflation heats up, the cost to build new construction only goes up. Because our market has been under-supplied for years, we are forced to build our way out of this. The only thing that could change the equation is if demand slowed.

Demand has slowed somewhat due to rising interest rates and insurance costs. Consequently, inventory has risen the past several months, and this should temper price increases like we’ve seen the past two years.

Whether home prices will appreciate or decline slightly no one can say. What we do know is the stock market has been volatile and has mostly headed down in 2022. Real Estate may be a much safer play in the short run, and the long run.

Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation

As you can see by the chart, since 2000 real estate has outperformed inflation. This includes the real estate crash years in 2006-2009. While searching the Internet I found more data dating back to 1967 that shows real estate outperformed inflation as well.

We May Already be in a Recession

Many people say the US will enter a recession in 2022. Others believe it will be 2023, and still others believe we are already in one. Negative growth impacts stocks, and as such we have seen a pullback in stock prices. When the Fed raises interest rates it is not usually good news for Wall Street.

Rising rates can dampen home affordability, and therefore it can have a negative impact on real estate prices short-term. We still believe now is a good time to buy before rates go higher. We did a video on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/Topagent) which shows how waiting to buy in hopes prices will come down actually costs a buyer when rates increase.  Send me an email if you’d like a direct link to that video Brett@TopAgent.com

Whatever happens with real estate prices in the short run it should be less volatile than stocks and should protect against inflation. The other nice thing about real estate is you can live in a home; you can’t live in a stock. You can rent out a home for income when you are not using it.  Real estate has so many advantages over stocks, including some tax deductions.

Is Your Home Working For You?

If you have a home that’s not quite working for you, now may be a good time to sell. Real estate prices are strong and while inventory is growing, it is still a good time to sell. If you wait to sell, you are occupying a home that doesn’t quite work for you, and it may be harder to sell when more homes enter the market in the future. Not to mention, interest rates could keep climbing.

As interest rates climb less and less buyers qualify for your home. If you are getting a loan on your next home, it may cost you more in the future. Interest rates have held steady the past week or so waiting on direction from the Fed at next month’s meeting. The inflation outlook will dictate how that goes, and we are expecting another rate increase in June, and perhaps several more this year. Either high prices will slow this economy down, or high rates will. It may be a combination of both, but rest assured the Fed will slow down the economy to get inflation under control.

The question is, will they overshoot and put us into recession? The other question is where is the best place to put our money in uncertain times.? Real estate may be a good option, and now is a good time to get into the right real estate for you.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams

To get your home sold Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS, or www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s value instantly. Our marketing reaches more buyers, which brings more offers.

Good luck, and Happy Memorial Day Weekend!

How does Inflation and recession Affect Housing?