Many Southwest Florida property owners are doing a cost versus benefit analysis on their property following nearby major storms in the past few years. Hurricanes Irma, Ian, Helene, and Milton have brought storm surge and flood damage to many coastal homes and inland homes near the rivers.

Not What I Signed up For

SW Florida homeowners bought paradise, and they paid a premium for it. Many even ponied up big bucks for flood insurance, while some did not. The price of paradise was worth it. SW Florida has not had much flooding in recent decades before Irma in 2017.

Cost Versus Benefit Analysis Underway in Coastal Areas

Cleaning up after a flood event is not fun. Some homeowners spent their life savings to restore their property back to a livable condition. Some even upgraded from what they had before the storm.

If once was bad enough, imagine going through this process two or three times. Some unlucky residents have, and they’ve had it. Nobody can tell us when we’ll get hit again. All we know is people are tired of it, and it might be time for change.

New Money Replaces Long Term Residents

Long-time residents may give way to new residents willing to take on the fight. The answer may be homeowners need to raise their existing property, or tear down and build new at a higher elevation. It costs a lot of money to raise a property. Some of our quaint and charming properties are beautiful where they sit, but will it be worth it to invest so much to raise them? In a sad way, the land may hold more value than the cost to raise a small and quaint home. The cost versus benefit analysis may dictate something else.

Future Values

We see values eventually going up along the coast as homeowners replace existing homes with more luxurious homes built at higher elevation. They may lose their charm, but they will have more cost and more value. Newer homes will not be as susceptible to ongoing flooding events. Existing homes that are raised will add value as well. Another option will be for owners to add a second story onto an existing home, essentially replacing living area on the bottom floor with living area a floor higher. The bottom floor becomes the new wash away floor that doesn’t require much repair.

Push Inland

Many potential buyers have decided they wish to avoid the high cost of flood insurance and flooding and move inland. Some inland homes require flood insurance, so it’s best to check on each property. A good real estate agent can help you select an area that meets your needs.

Blueprint

Each storm is different, and past performance is no guarantee about future performance in a storm. However, many have taken comfort in the fact that we’ve had several major storms and certain areas have suffered no flooding through all of them. There is a new required flood disclosure that sellers must complete. The disclosure details whether a home has had water intrusion and buyers will want to study these carefully when evaluating homes to purchase.

Flooded Homes Value

For areas that consistently flood, and no remedy is available other than flood insurance, such as townhomes or 1st floor condos, prices may be subject to buyers’ appetite to take on that risk. Some condo associations will be affected as well because the flood insurance may be for the full association, and the first floor affects the policy.

Professional Advice

When buying or selling, hiring the right agent is more important than ever. The Ellis Team at Keller Williams has more experience than just about anyone out there. We’ve been voted Best in Real Estate for 12+ years by News Press readers. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042

Let us know how we can help! We have resources we can give to you if you need vendors. Let’s hope 2024 storm season is done so we can get back to enjoying paradise.

To get your home’s online value instantly, check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com

No Flood Insurance Required

We have several homes that did not flood and require no flood insurance. This is one home we held open last weekend that may be popular among home buers. We have others as well.

Let’s look at Pre-Hurricane Milton Housing Demand. We are writing this article before Hurricane Milton hits, so we apologize in advance to all those who are affected. We’re praying everyone makes it safe on the other side.

Pre-Hurricane Milton Housing Demand

Pre-Hurricane Milton Housing Demand

Before the hurricane hit, housing has been soft with 6,269 single family homes currently on the MLS. We have 1,450 total pending homes which includes both pending and pending contingent. Buyers have been soft citing higher rates, waiting for the election, high insurance costs, etc. This is all indication buyers are less motivated because they have no fear of missing out.

After the Storm

We expect less homes to be on the market next week as some will suffer damage from the storm. If storm surge projections hold true, more home will receive damage than what Helene brought a few weeks ago.

In past hurricanes, a few things happened. First, less homes were on the market because some were damaged. It took people months or years to get their home back to sellable condition. Secondly, many displaced hurricane victims bought another home because their home was damaged. This took inventory down even further.

Damaged Field

There is a field in MLS regarding whether the home is damaged from the storm. I suspect we may be using that field again, so when searching make sure you know how to search on that field. This is something we can setup for you at www.LeeCountyOnline.com. Just e-mail us and ask us as it’s not a standard field available to the public.

New Flood Disclosure

Effective October 1 homeowners must now disclose previous flooding events.  The disclosure requires sellers to provide potential buyers with a form that details (if Applicable) any insurance claims the seller made for flood damage, as well as any federal assistance received for those claims.

Buyers want to know the cost of homeowners insurance, flood insurance, and the history of damages. This new disclosure will answer many questions buyers already have. I have a feeling many sellers will have to update this form if we see significant storm surge in the area.

Work With a Professional

 Who you hire matters. This is true on the selling side, and the buying side. A good agent can make sure you’re asking the right questions and seeking a bigger picture. More information is better if it doesn’t become analysis paralysis. Your agent should be able to help you sort out all the data so you can make a good decision for your family.

 

Let our family help your family! Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty  239-489-4042 You can get your home’s value online at www.SWFLhomevalues.com as well.

 

Be sure to keep up with the SW Florida Real Estate Market at our Blog. Blog.topagent.com Not only will you get today’s market stats and news, but you can also go back in time and see the news and stats from previous years. It’s always fun to see what was happening back when you last bought or sold a property and look it up.

Buckle up, stay safe, and remember to call the Ellis Team with your real estate questions. We’re here to help!

Today we want to provide a creative financing scam update to our May story “Creative Financing Red Flag Alert”.

Creative Financing Scam Update

Since May creative financing offers have increased in frequency, and they’ve become more creative. Additionally, after presenting their offer the callers have become more tenacious and downright combative with the listing agent.

More Creative

Since we wrote about how the “Subject To” can violate your lenders Due on Sale Clause, investors have changed the way they present their offers. One investor is hyping their offer as no risk because it is not “Subject To” at all but rather wrapping the mortgage to give the seller full protection. Whether you wrap a mortgage or not, it still may violate the original terms of the loan.

Furthermore, a seller is still reliant on the investor making the payment. If the investor does not make the payment, the seller may have no recourse to get their home back and be obligated to make the full payment of the loan. In a wrap-around mortgage, it’s possible for recourse to be created, but a seller might have to go through a lengthy legal process all the while mortgage payments need to be made. If the investor placed a tenant, the seller would have to abide by those terms as well.

Legal Advice

We would highly recommend a seller speak with an attorney before accepting any kind of creative financing offer. If they tell you you’re off the hook when you sell to them, look harder. Accepting a creative financing offer may prevent you from purchasing another home because you still have a loan in your name. They don’t tell you that, or they sometimes mislead about this fact.

The Ellis Team is looking into adding language into the listing agreement such that we have authority to reject creative financing offers for our sellers.

Agents Beware

These investor groups are so skilled and convincing that we’re afraid inexperienced agents, and perhaps some experienced agents may fall for some of the claims made over the phone, and in emails.

We have had sellers call their attorney and their lender. In each case, they were told not to engage in the offer before them.

I’ve even had investors point out that it is my duty to present all offers, and question why I wouldn’t want what is best for the seller?

Creative Financing Scam Update

As a service to the community, I will post screenshots of the written correspondence on our Blog. I invite attorneys and lenders to comment on the language. I will take out the address of the property and the names of the sender. It is our hope that you will begin to get a feel for what is happening out there. Please seek your own legal advice. We are not attorneys and are not offering legal advice in any way. We are simply informing you about a topic you might want to investigate before taking action should this happen to you.

Considering Selling?

Please call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 at Keller Williams Realty. We can answer your questions and guide you through the real estate maze. Changes are everywhere, and you need an experienced agent to guide you through the process. Or get your home’s value for Free at www.SWFLhomevalues.com

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Creative Financing Ehibits to View

The following are actual emails or offers we’ve received for you to view. We have blamked out who sent them and the property to protect privacy.

Creative Financing Exhbit 1

Creative Financing Exhibit 2

Creative Financing Exhibit 3

Creative Financing Exhibit 4

Creative Financing Exhibit 5

If for any reason you cannot open these links, leave a comment and I will find another way to share them. We are using Google Drive to share, but not sure if we can share outside of our organization

Lee County single family August home sale prices declined 3.9% from last year. Median home prices were also down $5,000 month over month from July as well.

August Home Sale Prices Declined 3.9%

Median home prices peaked this year in April at $425,000 and are down to $390,000 now. Some of that is seasonal. Many agents are complaining that homes sales are down, but actually, new pending sales are up 1.2% over last year. Of course, last year was a small number as interest rates were rising and sales fell off in the second half of the year.

Listing Inventory Gone

Something amazing happened this month. In July there are 8,054 single family homes listed officially on the market in Lee County. This month the number stands at 6,628. We believe there could be a problem with the official numbers because the numbers we track in MLS have actually gone up by 142 homes, not down 1,426 homes.

The official numbers forced the months supply of inventory down to 5.7 months supply, down from 7 months in July. We believe the months supply of inventory is 5.37 months, and that number has not changed much since August when it stood at 5.39 months.

Don’t believe the change in data. Official numbers may be coming into closer alignment to what we track, or they were missing some external MLS data for August.

Closed Sales

Closed sales were up 4.8% over last year. August 2024 sales were 1,225 compared to 1,169 last August.

It is clear home prices are still under pressure. Since the Fed lowered rates by half percent, we have not seen much change in mortgage rates. If anything, they have risen a bit. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the rate the Fed sets but can be influenced by market conditions which cause the Fed to make changes.

Economic Conditions

Economic conditions are still worsening, and this is why the Fed has been able to cut rates. The Fed is hoping to cut rates such that the economy has a soft landing all the while protecting against inflation. The Fed’s hands have been tied because the government has been spending so much money, and raising rates was the only way to tame the labor market in hopes of taming inflation. This is why Real Wages have declined. If the government spent less, we could have lower rates and paychecks would go further because inflation would be in check.

This is not the world we live in today, so don’t expect rates to go back to almost free. Rates could see a 5 in front of it in 2025. If rates get back in the 4’s, that would be about the best we could hope for someday. It really depends on inflation and the strength of the dollar.

Seminars

How will future rate cuts and economic conditions affect the SW Florida real estate market? The Ellis Team plans to host several seminars this Fall which will help homeowners, and homebuyers alike make better decisions based upon market data and facts. Put politics aside and let the data guide your decisions. Watch for info on our Blog at https://blog.topagent.com

You can track your home’s value over time at www.SWFLhomevalues.com each month our site will send you an updated analysis of your property. It’s fun to track them over time.

You can always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We’d love to speak with you and answer your questions one on one, or feel free to attend one of our seminars.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Hurricane Helene Update

 

 

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A post shared by Brett Ellis (@ellis_team_fl)

Single family home seller price reductions average 3.21% since June. This past week they averaged 2.88% while the week prior averaged 3.65%

Seller Price Reductions Average 3.21% Since June

We also track how many homeowners are reducing their price each week. Last week we had 483 reductions compared to 604 the week before. The week of April 16th was the highest with 911 single family homes in Lee County reducing their price.

Data

What does all this data mean? With approximately 6 or months supply of homes on the market, depending on price range, more homes are coming to the market than selling. Homeowners are competing against other sellers for the best buyers. If a seller brings their property to market at a price the market accepts, it should sell.  If the market rejects the price, sellers are choosing to adjust to the market because they wish to sell rather than keep their home.

Of course, some sellers would rather keep their home if they don’t get a price they want. That’s a nice position to be in. However, sometimes keeping a home and watching the prices go down can be disheartening, even for those that don’t have to sell.

Stock Market

Take the stock market for instance. Most people who have retirement accounts don’t need to sell. They’re investing for the long haul. Just the same, people don’t like investing in stocks that aren’t performing to their needs. In these cases, people typically sell and adjust their portfolio with investments they believe better suits their needs. They don’t need to sell, but they choose to sell and invest in something else.

Homeowners should not sell just because their home value is going down. Holding onto a property that no longer serves your needs does not always make sense either. Some people hold onto a property they no longer want until its value goes back up to a desired level. However, the property they would replace the underperforming property with might also go up, wiping out any advantage of holding a property that no longer suits their needs.

Emotional Decision

Real estate more than stocks becomes an emotional investment. People live in houses and build memories, so selling isn’t as easy as unloading a stock because of the emotional ties. It’s easier to make a business decision with stocks at times than it is with real estate.

Real estate has advantages though, because unlike a stock, you can live in a home or rent it out. If the price drops, you can choose to stay in the home, especially if you cannot afford to sell. Some people wouldn’t qualify for a new mortgage, so it’s wise to stay where they are until their financial situation changes.

Consult with a Professional

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty have consulted with thousands of homeowners over the years. We can help you evaluate your options from an objective level and point out the pros and cons of making a move. We have resources that may help you and may think of things you haven’t considered. Our job is not to sell you but work with you to find a solution that makes sense for your family, even if that means staying for a while.

Give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call 239-310-6500 and let’s talk. If you do decide to sell, we can help you decide on a pricing strategy. Our marketing plan is fantastic, and our family working with your family is a winning team! Or track your home value online at www.SWFLhomevalues.com. We’ll keep tracking the seller price reductions average and monitor when this number changes significantly, hopefully for the better.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

4768 Crested Eagle Ln Fort Myers, FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL

 

Local housing inventory supply declined slightly in September, down from 5.39 months in August. Let’s breakdown which price ranges went down and why.

Housing Inventory Supply Declined Slightly in September

Housing Inventory Supply Declined

Everything $600,000 and up declined in inventory supply this past month. Sales went down in each of the three price ranges, but listing inventory declined even more. This tells us that more sellers simply took their homes off the market rather than sell in today’s market.

The $500k-$600k market increased in supply ever so slightly. Closed sales remained the same while listing inventory went up by four homes.

Best Performing Price Range

The $400-$500k market declined in supply. In this case, listings went down, and sales went up. This is the only price range on the chart that can make that claim.

The $300-$400k range saw listings jump by 105. The good news is sales jumped 66 to help offset some of the increase.

Worst Performing Price Range

The less than $300k range saw an increase in listings and a decrease in closed sales.

Based on these statistics, we can say the best performing price range this past month was in the $400-$500k range. The worst performing range for the month was the less than $300k range. If you are a seller in either of these two ranges, you might be feeling gratitude or pain.

In general, lower priced homes are more sensitive to external market conditions. In July, 36.6% of homes sold locally were paid for in cash. This means that 73.4% were financed.

The Fed

The Fed has purposely raised interest rates to cool the economy. They explicitly said they had to cool the job market to tame inflation. Statistics have shown they were able to cool the job market. The hope is the Fed will begin lowering rates starting this month and into the Fall. We could be dealing with a slumbering labor market into next year as lower rates will take time to work their way through the economy.

Shadow Inventory

Remember all those sellers that took their property off the market? How many of those will come back on the market in 2025? We just do not know. We suspect if the real estate market were to ever heat up in the next few years the shadow inventory would present itself and tame price appreciation.

Interest ratesWe are not expected to drop fast. If the Fed does drop rates fast, it means our economy is in worse shape than predicted, and this would not help the real estate market.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking of selling, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Sande and Brett are here to answer your questions. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant value on your home and track it over time. The sooner you start, the more data you will have.

Thanks for Voting

Thanks for voting the Ellis Team the Top Team in Fort Myers, and the Best Agent in Cape Coral! We appreciate the confidence News Press readers place in us, and we are grateful.

Ellis Team the Top Team in Fort Myers

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

914 SW 12th Terrace Cape Coral, FL

Waterfront pool Home Cape Coral
Heated Pool waterfront Home in Cape Coral

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2552 Keystone Lake Dr Cape Coral, FL

Coral Lakes Home
Coral Lakes Home-Check out the Back

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

26236 Colony Rd Bonita Spring FL

Imperial Harbor Furnished Home
Furnished Home in Imperial Harbor

The Ellis Team is projecting home closing activity in Lee County to be somewhere in the vicinity of 14,109 for 2024.  You might ask, how did you pick that number? Was it a wild guess?

Projecting Home Closing Activity in Lee County

Without boring you with a complex mathematical computation, basically we compared year to date sales with previous years and extrapolated a percentage of where we are this year compared to previous years. We then looked at averages and compared economic climates for those years and did our best to make a prediction.

Projecting Home Closing Activity

There is absolutely no way our number will be correct. However, if it is even close, 2024 would be the 7th best year on record, and the 4th best year on the chart.

We hear agents saying how dead the market is, and nothing is selling. Statistically that’s not true. It may seem like nothing is selling if you have listings that are not selling. Through July more homes have closed in 2024 than 2023. I can already track through MLS about as many closings for August and we know not all sales are in yet.

Economy

We do know the economy is slowing down, and high interest rates are having their effect on buyers. However, we are expecting interest rates to begin declining starting this month. In fact, the mortgage markets already have begun their decline. Add in sellers buying rates down for buyers and there is light for home sales to remain steady.

Election

We have heard many buyers say they are waiting for the election. Somebody is going to get elected, and people are still going to need housing after the election. If you live in Washington DC, I could see why the election outcome might make a difference. For the rest of America, we either need housing or we don’t.

I could also see where some people could be concerned about their job going forward. Perhaps one candidate is more favorable to certain industries versus the other. Consumer confidence makes a difference, I get it.

It’s kind of like all those celebrities that promise to move to another country if so and so gets elected. They never do. I believe most people make a housing decision after the election about the same as they would have before the election. For some reason they just feel more in control. Buying a home is scary, and people like to feel in control. Even though we have the right to vote, that whole election thing feels out of control for most people, so they use it as an excuse to delay a decision.

Affordability

In the end, home sales and pricing come down to affordability. Affordability is determined by the price of the house, plus HOA fees, taxes, and insurance, financing costs, and anticipated maintenance. Home sales have slowed from better years because affordability has slipped. If real wages were to rise, inflation cools, or insurance costs abate, this would help affordability. Absent any of those, affordability must come from seller’s home prices, which is what we’ve seen the past few years.

Selling

If you’re selling in today’s market, who you hire matters. Marketing and experience matter. Always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 for the best advice in today’s market. Our marketing can work for you. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for your home’s instant home value. Our system will even track your home’s value each month and send you a comprehensive report on your area.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL

2304 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral FL
Waterfront Home with Negative Edge Pool

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

1417 NE 10th Ln Cape Coral, FL

1417 NE 10th Ln Cape Coral FL
Your New Home

Local home prices slipped 5.3% from last year, down to $395,000. Median home prices were $417,000 a year ago and were $400,000 last month. What has caused home prices to slip in SW Florida?

Local Home Prices Slipped 5.3% in July

Inventory

Inventory is up 77% over last year. Official numbers show 8,054 single family homes on the market this year versus 4,545 last year. And this is after many sellers took their home off the market and rented them.

New Pending Sales

While this number dropped .5% from last year, it’s actually not as bad as it could have been. In fact, pending inventory right now is up. We’ll see if this holds, or if some of these deals fall out due to insurance or inspection concerns.

Interest Rates

Interest rates today are about 1% lower than they were a year ago. Additionally, many sellers have been paying for interest rate buydowns for the buyer which has helped home sales. With falling interest rates there is rising optimism buyers may be able to afford to get back into the home buying business and may become more motivated. Of course, this assumes they keep their jobs.

Months Supply of Inventory

Inventory supply has swelled to 7 months officially. We calculated it at 5.39 months, but our MLS does not have every single listing. Believe it or not, some sellers will list their home with Realtors from outside of the area and they use their own MLS. Sellers should ask which MLS their home will appear on and make that part of their contract, but that’s another story.

Interesting Trends

The Ellis Team is noticing some interesting trends developing in the resale market. Keep in mind, when official numbers are released, they are always a month behind, and it pays to know what is happening in the moment.  We’ll be watching these trends the next few weeks to see what impact they will have on the market.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking of selling your home, now would be the time to call Sande or Brett Ellis. We will share our inside market statistics, so you know before the public does what the market is doing and how best to react. Imagine having a month jump on the stock market? Would that affect your decision on the stocks you bought and sold, and the timing? You can have that same advantage In the real estate market.

Marketing

Having a jump on the market is beneficial, but so is hiring the best agent with the best marketing. Pricing your home correctly is important, but so is marketing. Any Realtor can list a home, but the great ones get your home sold for Top Dollar. Always call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 to see how much we can get for your home. Just because local home prices slipped doen’t mean they’ll stay where they are. The market is always on the move.

Instant Online Price

Of course, you can also try our instant online pricing tool at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Our system will track your home’s value over time, even if you’re not ready to sell today. People love the tracking tools. While we have one of the best online tools out there, we still recommend validating the value with Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis if you’re considering selling. You wouldn’t want to leave money on the table based upon a computer valuation. Nor would you want to overprice it as well because the computers were wrong.

Experience

Due to recent industry changes, experience matters more than ever. Be sure to ask about commissions and how they are being handled, and which form the brokerage you choose is using. Unfortunately, many buyer agents are not fluent in the changes and need an experienced listing agent to help guide them. You can’t hire an inexperienced listing agent and expect to get over the finish line in this market.

Good luck, and Happy Selling! We’ll keep an eye on the market for you. Just call us when you’re ready!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 9am – 3pm

914 SW 12th Terrace Cape Coral FL

914 SW 12th Terrace Cape Coral FL
Open House 9am-3pm

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers FL

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers FL
Open House Bridgetown at the Plantation

Feautured Home of the Week

 

If you’ve been following our column, you’ll know that we’ve been writing about housing inventory levels falling since April. After more research we learned about rentals affecting housing resale inventory supply.

Rentals Affecting Housing Resale Inventory Supply

According to a leading rental agent, rent prices have been down 35% in the last three months. He mentioned there are 176 single family homes in Cape Coral alone that came on the rental market.  Because he has conversations with his clients, I asked him what is driving the rush to rent their homes.

Rentals Affecting Housing Resale Inventory Supply

The rental agent said many have tried to sell their home and could not, or just do not like the resale prices today, so they’ve decided to rent instead. This caused a rush of rental homes to enter the market, and some are still asking for 3 month ago rental prices.

Like the resale market, rentals are price sensitive. Whether you are renting or selling, you must price your home according to market conditions. For those that choose the correct rental price, those homes are rented within four to six weeks. For those owners that overprice their rental, it’s taking three to four months to rent their home. Presumably it takes longer for the owner to realize they are overpriced, and they eventually reduce rent until it rents. Our conversation didn’t get that far, but why else would it rent for more down the road?

Rent Vs Sell

There are three reasons why a homeowner would rent versus selling. First, they emotionally want what their home used to be worth and decide to wait until the market recovers to that point. Secondly, they may owe more on the home and need to wait until market recovers to pay off the loan. Third, they may decide it’s a good investment and would like to keep it. Perhaps they have a low interest rate and can afford to keep it until rates fall again.

We may never see rates get below 3% again. If they do approach sub 4% it probably means the economy isn’t doing well and the Fed is trying to pump the economy. If this scenario occurs, home prices wouldn’t be doing well.

Economic Projections

We just sat through an economic projection of three possible scenarios. The first was no recession, the second scenario was a normal recession, and the last scenario was a banking recession. Let’s pray for no recession or or a mild one because the outlook for home prices and sales time isn’t pretty if we hit a normal recession or banking recession.

Buyers and sellers should prepare for rates to come down, but it will take awhile, and real estate will lag while they do. Recovery will be slow.  If we enter a normal recession, home prices could be stalled or fall for 3+ years. And if we enter a banking recession, unemployment would rise dramatically and the economy could get ugly. We last saw this scenario in the Great Recession and savings and loan crisis.

The difference is today our country is in so much more debt than we were in 2006. Latest odds have the US entering a recession at about 70%. The definition of a recession is negative growth for two straight quarters, so we won’t know we’re in one until 6 months in.

Bottom Line

Real estate is moving, if it’s priced correctly. Those rentals will come back on the resale market one day, adding to inventory. For now, it might be a good time to sell while inventory is down. Of course, when all those rentals come back on the market, interest rates might be lower and maybe there will be more buyer demand to offset the increased supply.

We’ll keep watching the market for you. Always call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 with your real estate questions or visit www.swflhomevalues.com to get your home’s price.

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

6216 Emerald Pines Cir Fort Myers, FL

Emerald Pines Home Fort Myers FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers, FL

Bridgetown at the Plantation Home Fort Myers FL

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

914 SW 12th Terrace Cape Coral, FL

914 SW 12th Terrace Cape Coral, FL

Reduced home inventory supply is indeed good news for home sellers in Lee County. The overall monthly supply of homes on the market decreased from 5.67 months in June down to 5.39 months currently.

Price Ranges

 Every single price range decreased except for the under $300,000 market.  Even though closed sales are falling in some of the price ranges, they are being made up for in others. Perhaps the largest reason for the drop in housing supply is because sellers simply aren’t selling in the quantity they were back in June.

Reduced Home Inventory Supply Good News for Sellers

We have 302 less listings on the market right now. There was an increase in sold closings of 31 homes. This tells us that the drop in inventory levels has more to do with sellers taking their home off the market or less sellers deciding to bring their home to market. The decrease in home listings was not due to a drastic increase in closings.

Interest Rates

Interest rates are falling. It’s hard to get a feel for what they are officially because everyone quotes from a different base. For instance, Freddie Mac is reporting rates nationwide at 6.73%. This was last week’s rate to be fair. Other sources are quoting below 6% online, but there could be some points or closing fees involved to equalize the rate. Suffice it to say, rates have fallen, and they could fall more as the economy deteriorates.

Double Edged Sword

Sellers have been hoping for falling rates so more people can afford to pay a higher sales price on their home. The double-edged sword is that many are losing their jobs and businesses are cutting back, so there may be less buyers in the buying pool. The buyers that do have jobs may afford more when rates fall, but there could be less buyers overall.

Some buyers and sellers are holding off until the election before deciding to make a move. Americans feel less certain about their futures right now and they are looking for a reason to be optimistic. We just came off big inflation numbers where American purchasing power diminished, and now jobs are on the line. Some people are not optimistic about moving forward until they bring back a sense of control in their life.

We’re not sure the election is going to give them that, but we understand it as we hear these every four years.

Industry Changes

Industry practice changes are in effect. We predict several months of chaos as buyers, sellers, and agents figure out how to work in the new environment. Some brokerages have already figured it out and are operating as though not much has changed. Other brokerages and agents are in a state of confusion and don’t know how to move forward.

We’ve been telling readers for a while; it pays to work with an agent who understands what is happening and how to succeed in this environment. Our clients’ successes are literally in the hands of agents who are experienced and well trained to work in this environment. You must know the new practices inside and out to be able to explain it to clients. Buyers and sellers need this information to make good decisions, and unfortunately some are not getting good information or making the best decisions.

The good news is, even if a seller doesn’t understand the practice changes and makes a decision they later wish to change, they can. And you don’t have to switch agents or brokerages to make the change. Sit down with your agent and ask questions. If you’re unhappy with the results, make a change to the way they operate.

Interview

Buyers and sellers should interview agents now. Who you hire matters. The Ellis Team at Keller Williams is available to meet with you and discuss your options. You may or may not hire us, but at least you’ll understand better the options available to you and how they affect you. Take advantage of reduced home inventory supply levels while it lasts.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 2-4 PM

5407 Parker Dr Fort Myers FL

Between McGregor and the River

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2752 Geary St Matlacha, FL

Matlacha Waterfront Airbnb home

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

914 SW 12th Ter cape Coral, FL

Cape Coral Waterfront Pool Home
Waterfront Pool Home

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

26236 Colony Rd Bonita Springs, FL

Affordable home with Kinetico water system
Affordable Furnished Home