I have been reading several articles on how a Biden tax plan benefits Florida real estate market.  Biden’s tax plan has many parts to it, some of which benefit Florida homeowners and some of which hurt.  As I am writing this article neither candidate has been declared the winner, and we will not go into that for purposes of this article.  We are simply passing along information should Biden eventually be declared the winner.Biden Tax Plan Benefits Florida Real Estate Market

One article suggests the Biden tax plan benefits Florida real estate market by creating an incentive for residents to leave high tax states more than they already have.  Biden’s tax plan could create a marginal tax rate exceeding 60% in New Jersey, California, Hawaii, and New York.  As these states suffer shortfalls, they will be under more pressure to raise rates even higher.  It is a vicious cycle.  Many high tax states are hemorrhaging residents. As they lose residents, they must either cut spending or raise more taxes on the fewer that are left.

Vulnerable States Losing Residents

Another article mentions Illinois and California as particularly vulnerable.  Biden’s tax plan calls for an increase in capital gains rates as well as several new taxes.  One such tax is raising the amount many earners pay on social security.  Another tax is capping deductions for some earners, as well as raising the top income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%

When you factor all these new taxes in, the theory is people will flee high tax states and move to lower tax states where their income is taxed less by the state.  It is not much theory as we have already seen it the past 4 years.  The writers of these articles speculate it will intensify and speed up.

At this time, we still do not know who will control the Senate and how those votes will go.  All we know is that if Biden wins the election, there will be upward pressure.  Some of these taxes will hurt real estate, and yet the Florida real estate market could still be a net winner in that we may gain more people interested in Florida than we lose in tax penalties.  The same cannot be said for other states, but we focus on the SW Florida real estate market.

Target Marketing High Tax States

In 2020 the Ellis Team has sold many properties to buyers from high tax states.  In fact, we have several looking right now and making offers.  Our marketing has focused on those areas and we expect that to continue.  When our team lists a home, we advertise it where we think the buyers are.

We have many local buyers and even more out of state buyers.  If you get lucky out of state buyers come to you based on brand, reputation, or referral.  If you are an aggressive agent you go find the buyers through advertising, and that is what we have done.  We do get a lot of referrals from out of state agents. Many agents calls us because of the Keller Williams name.  We appreciate all of that and that is why we are at the company we are with.

What is particularly fun is selecting certain markets you believe contain buyers who might move to SW Florida and combine that with our artificial intelligence that shows us where buyers are coming from and take out ads directed at those buyers.  When the leads start to flow in off those ads it feels a lot like finding a good fishing hole nobody else knows about.  Never ask a fisherman where their best fishing hole is and expect a straight answer.  Conversely, never ask a top agent who is using this advanced technology to locate buyers to tell you exactly where they are coming from.

Never Ask a Fisherman

A fisherman might tell you which lake the fish are in, but never the exact spot.  A top agent might tell you which states buyers are coming from, but not the exact formula to advertise to them.

If you have a home to sell, always call Brett or Sande at the Ellis Team 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  We have buyers and can help you get Top Dollar.  We do not know who the next president is yet, but we do know how to sell your home either way.  Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant and Free valuation.

We are writing this article the morning after the election.  At this time, it is unclear who the next president of the United States will be or when we will know.  What we do know are the real estate statistics pre-election.  Today we decided to focus on pre-election dollar volume for the SW Florida real estate market.

Pre-Election Dollar Volume SW Florida Real Estate Market

Pre-election dollar volume measures the total dollar volume of sales in a defined time period.  We calculate this by adding up all the sales volume in each month.  September 2020 SW Florida saw $564.8 million dollars in total dollar volume.  That is a whopping 63.4% increase over 2019 numbers which were $345.6 million.

Pre-Election Dollar Volume up in Summer

Pre-election dollar volume started taking off back in June.  Keep in mind we have been in the middle of a pandemic and we are still eclipsing 2019 numbers.  2019 is the benchmark, and we know that was a good year in real estate in SW Florida.  June was only up 1.5%, but it started a trend we will look back on as a defining moment.  July posted a 20.1% increase in pre-election dollar volume in real estate sales.  Along came August which blew June and July away.  People thought the market could not get any stronger, and September would prove them wrong.

New pending sales in September are 58.2% higher than 2019.  We know you must have a pending listing before you can have a closed sale.  New pending sales are a leading indicator of what may happen 1-2 months down the line.  Because many home loans are taking a minimum of 45 days to close, many of the September new pending sales will close in December. August new pending sales were up 42.4%, so we believe October official numbers when released will show increases as well.

We may not see a rise of 63.4% like we saw in September, but October numbers should rise compared to 2019.  We have seen excellent demand.  One thing that could limit sales would be limited supply.  The other factors that will influence the market going forward is how people feel about the eventual winner, and the makeup of congress.

Will economic policies spur growth?  How will northern states react to the winner, and will they continue moving to Florida?  Will that pace speed up or slow down?  How many people will decide to list their home post-election?  All these factors will play a role in the total dollar volume moving forward into 2021.

Waiting on a Winner

Once a presidential winner is determined, it may take people awhile to digest how they feel about it and how future economic, social, and tax policies will affect homeowners.  This may vary by state and county.  We have seen a migration away from high tax states to low tax states. We do not know if other factors will come into play post-election.

It would be impossible for anyone to predict how the SW Florida real estate market will fare going forward.  Heck, as of today writing this article we cannot even tell you who the president will be or who will control congress.  We can report that pre-election dollar volume was excellent in SW Florida and on the rise.  It should remain great for another few months.  Other indicators have been excellent as well.  Right now, SW Florida has an exceptionally good real estate market.

If you would like to talk about selling your home, please call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  We can discuss your options, how the overall market is doing today as well as your neighborhood and put a game plan together for you should you decide to sell.  Or, you can always get an instant value of your home at www.SWFLhomevalues.com It’s instant and easy.  We can validate the online price in person if you are considering selling.  Your choice.

Always call Sande or Brett Ellis at the Ellis Team Keller Williams Realty! We’re never too busy to talk to you.  Good luck and Happy Selling!

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This is our final article before the election so we thought it might be good to report out pre-election real estate market statistics for SW Florida.

Pre-election real estate market statistics show two interesting factors at play.  Our market is experiencing extremely high closed sales.  If you look at the chart, 2020 was surpassing the previous four years until Covid-19 hit.  We took a brief pause in April and May as lockdowns were in effect in Florida and nationwide.  Nobody knew for sure what the future held.  Savvy Realtors sprang into action and began selling homes virtually.  Our team has sold over 100 homes this year in the middle of a pandemic.

Pre-Election Real Estate Market Statistics

In 2019, housing inventory levels were already low. There was a spike in inventory during the 2019 season, but we quickly sold off all that inventory and then some.  Heading into January 2020 we saw the lowest inventory levels of all previous four years.  Then Covid-19 hit.  Inventory has been going down steadily.

Pre-Election Real Estate market Inventory Levels 2020

New listings were up 26.1% in September, but it did not make a dent as we sold every bit of it and more.  Lee County had 1,550 homes go on the market in September and 1,832 went pending.  When we repeat this cycle month after month you do not have to be a mathematician to realize inventory levels are falling.  More pending sales than homes coming on the market leads to lower inventory.

Lower inventory and high demand lead to rising prices.  The median sale price increased 16.9% in September over last year.  The average sale price rose 19.8%.  This is an extreme seller’s market right now, pre-election.

The question everyone is wondering about is how long will this last?  The stock market is jittery largely due to uncertainty with who will win the election, who will control the house and senate, and what Covid is going to do.  Will we have further lockdowns?  Will the government vote for stimulus to help mitigate loss of income due to shutdowns?

Right now, stimulus is not being provided for political reasons.  That all ends after next week, and it does not matter who wins.  People speculate this could be a contested election and that may delay stimulus.  My belief is that will all be decided in the courts if it is contested at all.  Either way, there is no disincentive for congress to provide stimulus after the election as votes are not riding on it.

Nobody knows what Covid will do, when a vaccine will arrive, and which states may further shutdown.  What we do know is Florida looks attractive to lots of people right now.  We are advertising to northern states with great success.  Buyers are flocking to Florida for its low taxes and ability to stay open in middle of Covid. Pre-election real estate market indicators are good.

There are people on both sides of that argument.  We are not here to argue the merits of either.  Our team is here to sell real estate.  Our sellers expect it, and buyers want our help.  As always, we market to where the buyers are.  Buyers are here locally, and out of state, and we market to both.

Some sellers are nervous and wonder if now the time might be to sell.  Others want to wait for even higher prices in the future. None of us know what the future holds.  The best decision probably depends on your family’s circumstances.

We have a team of buyer specialists ready to help you find homes and negotiate a win for you.  The Ellis Team also has listing specialists ready to get you Top Dollar for your home now. The old saying says strike while the iron is hot.  The iron is hot right now, and if you’re thinking of selling, you should talk to Sande or Brett Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4  Or visit www.SWFLHomevalues.com to get an instant price on your home.  We can validate that price in person later if you are interested in selling.

Just remember, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty for all your real estate questions!

See last week’s article “Ellis Team Marketing Sells Listings For Top Dollar and Fast

 

The Ellis Team marketing sells listings for top dollar and fast.  This past week we closed on a $525,000 listing that sold for $536,200, $11,200 above asking price.  Some of the showing agents felt it was overpriced and we would never get that for the home.  They were wrong, and had we listened it would have cost the seller money.

Ellis Team marketing sells homes for more money.  How is that possible? That is an excellent question, and one we get regularly.  While we cannot share all the answers in a short article like this, we can cover some highlights.  First, we do not stand back and expect agents in the MLS to sell your home.  We proactively market it to a proven bank of buyers we market to.  Secondly, we target and attract new buyers each week through aggressive online and print advertising across multiple mediums.

Additionally, we have a team of buyer agents and inside sales associates calling buyers specifically for our listings.  When the Ellis Team takes a new listing, we may already have the buyer in our data bank.  We use advanced marketing and artificial intelligence to build this data bank and it is paying off for our sellers.

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Are We Too Busy

Some sellers are reluctant to list with a successful team because they wonder if they will get lost in the shuffle and not be a priority.  Let me address that issue as well, as there are certain advantages of working with a team.

We are not too busy.  In fact, we have sold almost our entire inventory.  We were not too busy for them when we had inventory, and we are certainly not too busy now that we don’t. Our team was built for scale.  Our advanced marketing costs a lot of money and was designed to bring in lots of buyers, not just one.  It would be a waste not having seller’s properties to market to this valuable group.

The Ellis Team has a full-time listing manager and marketing manager to assist us.  Having experts on our team allows us to provide a higher level of service than single agents can provide.  Our team of specialists sole goal is to get your home sold for top dollar.

Top Dollar Realtors

Sande and Brett Ellis have a reputation for getting homes sold for top dollar.  There is a saying “What you focus on expands.”  Brett and Sande have focused on top dollar our entire career, and that’s probably why we’ve been known around town as “Top Dollar Realtors.”

Any Realtor can give a home away.  Giving a home away is easy.  Low price sells anything, from homes to cars to electronics.  Getting top dollar requires spending money on advertising and acquiring marketing expertise.  It is not something you can learn in a day, week, or year. How you respond to questions matters as well. Learning the sales process and mastering marketing techniques are time tested and work in today’s digital society.

The Ellis Team works with the best of the best technology partners.  Other Realtors often call us and ask how we do it, and we are happy to share our story.  Most will not do it because it costs money, but for those that do they see results like our team does.

Thinking of Selling?

If you are thinking of selling your home, please call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  Who you work with matters.  This is not the market to play around in and hire the wrong Realtor.  You will be kicking yourself later when this market passes you by.  For those on the fence and just want an idea of what their home is worth, we have a website for that. www.SWFLHomevalues.com  You will get an instant, free estimate of your home’s value.  We are here for you on the phone or online and can walk you through the process.

We look forward to hearing from you.  Put our experienced team to work for you!

See last week’s article “Real Estate Appraisal Values Lag Behind Market

In a shifting market it’s not uncommon for real estate appraisal values to lag behind the market of the moment.  We have such a market in SW Florida.

Real Estate Appraisal Values Lag Behind Market
Real Estate Appraisal Values Lag Behind Market

Have you ever noticed when gas prices at the pump rise, they seem to do so quickly and when they fall it tends to be slow?  Appraisals feel kind of the same way.  In a rapidly rising market appraisers are slow to pick up on the rise, but when prices are falling, they get conservative and offer time value adjustments to the downside.  Appraisers are simply protecting themselves because they have risk.  The last thing they want is a lender accusing them of over valuing property values.

Appraisers concentrate on what happened in the past and must wait on data to reflect on what is happening on the streets today.  It’s a lot like looking in the rear-view mirror, they can tell you where the market has been but not where the market is headed.  Appraisers must prove values with data all the while mitigating risk by being caught in a rapidly changing market.

There are things agents can do to improve value with the appraiser as well as sell over appraised value.  It takes an experienced agent to deal with these issues.  Sellers mistakenly believe it does not matter who they list with in a seller’s market.  It always matters who you list with, and now is no exception!

Experienced buyer’s agents are counseling buyers on what it takes to score a property today.  We are seeing multiple offers and many times the winning buyer will pay well over asking price.  Buyers are being counseled it may or may not appraise depending on the appraiser and the buyer will have to pay the difference.  The lender will lend based upon a loan to value ratio of the appraisal.  This does not stop the buyer from purchasing, but it might raise their down payment.  Lenders are now counseling buyers too that homes are selling for more than appraised value in many cases.  Real estate appraisal values simply are not keeping up.

Sellers are not accepting as many repair items after inspection either.  They do not have to.  If the buyer backs out there may be 10-20 other buyers willing to pick up that property the day it falls out.  In fact, many buyers are scoring deals simply on the fear of greed of a previous buyer who backs out.  Sellers have the upper hand right now.  Buyers are not really in competition with the seller, they are in competition with all the other buyers that would love to have their deal.

You never want to go back to sell a property a second time, unless the first buyer is not being reasonable or if the line of backup buyers is stronger and more motivated than the first.  This is one reason we spend time on selecting the best 1st contract.  We evaluate how likely this buyer is to complete the sale. We look at pre-approval letter, amount down, amount in escrow, and all terms.  The offer tells a story and prompts questions.  We may call the lender or ask further questions to help the seller make the best decision for them.

For buyers it helps to work with a team that represents a lot of sellers, because we know what listing agents are looking for in an offer, and we can help structure your offer to be more desirable.  Remember, your offer not only has to be acceptable to seller, it must beat out all the other offers.  Price is just one term among many the seller and listing agent looks at.

If you are looking to buy and sell, give us a call.  Brett and Sande can be reached at 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  We’ll be happy to talk about your situation and give you the advice you need to succeed. Visit www.SWFLHomevalues.com to see what your home is worth.   Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

See last week’s article “Correctly Priced Homes Selling with Multiple Offers

SW Florida Real Estate Market Update September 2020

Market prices are driven by supply and demand.  Basic economics teaches us this and the SW Florida real estate market is living proof.  We have excellent demand locally along with declining inventory.  Basically, we are outselling the number of new homes that come on the market each week.  We see correctly priced homes selling with multiple offers.

Correctly Priced Homes Selling with Multiple Offers
Correctly Priced Homes Selling with Multiple Offers in SW Florida

Ellis Team buyer agents have been selling up a storm lately, and we have had to spend some time with our buyers educating them on what it takes to win an offer.  Homes that are not in multiple offer situations can quickly turn in just a matter of hours.  We keep on the lookout for homes that enter the market for our buyers and many times our buyers are forced to buy it within a day or two of being on the market.

Our team has a databank of over 11,000 people searching for specific criteria.  We filter those out by the most motivated.  If they wish to buy in a year, they search for information purposes, but any home they see now will be gone in days, if it is priced and marketed correctly.

Most Correctly Priced Homes Selling

We have seen homes priced correctly that have not sold.  Our buyers are thankful for that because if it had been marketed correctly it might not still be there.  This brings us to another especially important point.

Marketing matters as does proper pricing.  Pricing can change by the week in some areas, and not move so much in others.  It pays to know what is selling, what is not, and why.  An experienced agent can help you with that.

It also pays to list with an agent who is an expert in the market, and markets heavily.  We have included a graph sorted by price range.  We also look at property class, neighborhood, and a variety of other factors to determine pricing trends.

Housing supply lowered in every single price point in the last 30 days, and yet not all prices saw rising sales.  Inventory just dipped, and maybe sales were lower because there was not inventory to sell.  We are seeing a nice rise in sales in the $300,000 to $1 Million range.  Other ranges saw sales gains too, but homes in these ranges not only saw lower inventory but rising sales numbers as well.

September was a good month for the Ellis Team and our Keller Williams office.  We had 188 closings last month with several more that spilled into October as the lenders were backed up getting the closings out.

Thinking of Selling?

You should talk to Brett or Sande Ellis. Brett and Sande have the experience to price your home where it should be in today’s market and the marketing muscle to get your home sold fast and for top dollar. When we take your listing, we can search our databank of buyers and see if we may already have the buyer for your home.  If not, our marketing goes to work, and we would love the opportunity to show you that all Realtors do not market the same.

Choosing the wrong Realtor could cost you thousands of dollars.  Selecting the wrong offer can cost you the sale completely.  If you’re not ready to sell but want a quick, fairly accurate price of your home, www.SWFLhomevalues.com is one of the most accurate around.  No computer is perfect, and prices are changing weekly, but it’s a good start. If you want to talk, Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4 Selling a home is a process, and we enjoy explaining the process and making it easier for you.  The Ellis Team has systems and tools to make the process simpler, and of course we’ll get you Top Dollar.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty, your Top Dollar Realtors!

See last week’s article “Lee County Real Estate Market Setting Records

We’ve got good news for sellers and for buyers.  The Lee County real estate market is setting records and you might be wondering how this is good news for buyers.

Total Dollar Volume Lee County Real Estate Market

First off, the total dollar volume of sales increased 45.5% to a whopping $553.5 Million in August sales, a new high for the year. Three things are spurring these sales.  Low interest rates, people moving to Florida, and more inventory coming to market.  Median prices rose 16.5% in August over last year, and closed sales were up 16.5% as well.  Both positive numbers added to the rise in dollar volume.

When inventory is falling like it has, you cannot have increased sales forever.  Eventually you’ll run out of inventory to sell. What saved the day is a 32.3% rise in new listings over last year.  This is the good news for buyers.  Before we get too carried away, we’d like to point out one fact.

Lee County Real Estate Market New Listings
New Listings

It is true listings were up 32.3%.  August new listings were 1,547.  New pending sales was 1,796.  This means 249 more homes went under contract than came to the market.  We know some of those deals will fall out over inspection issues, appraisal, etc.  Still, more homes are going pending than coming to market, so that is not a sign of increasing inventory.  The silver lining is more new listings came up than last year.  Without those new listings, dollar volume would not be as high.

We are starting to receive more calls from sellers wondering if now might be a good time to cash out of their property.  Their property has served them well, and they know inventory is low and sellers are in the driver’s seat.  Some sellers are looking to upgrade or downsize, and they feel now is a good time to sell, and they are correct.

We believe more of those conversations will be happening this year.  Will it be enough to cover the buyer demand we have right now?  Nobody knows that answer.  We do not know who will win the election, or even when it will be decided.  A vaccine isn’t approved yet, although tests look promising.  With so many unknowns, nobody can guarantee where the Lee County real estate market will be next year.

What we do know is buyers love Florida and they are moving here.  Sellers sit in a good position, and the sellers choosing to sell right now are doing well.  Agents who use technology and marketing at a high level are doing well, and others are struggling.

The real estate business is changing rapidly right now, and many agents won’t be in the business a year from now.  Some companies are also closing due to pressures of lead acquisition and market conditions.  Who you work with now is more important than ever.

Keep in mind, markets can swing, and little variations in the data can affect sellers.  Staying on top of the data can help sellers make quicker and better decisions.  When the market is on the move, you must pay attention.

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty studies the market and the data.  Did you know you can see years’ worth of data on our blog? Subscribe to blog.topagent.com and you’ll receive timely trends as we publish them.

If you’d like to talk to Sande or Brett Ellis, give us a call 239-489-4042 Ext 4  We can discuss your situation and see if this hot market is right for you to make a move.  Having facts helps you make better decisions.  Brett and Sande are here to help.

Find out what your home is worth online for Free

Good luck and happy selling!

See last week’s article “Rising Florida Home Prices Caused by Low Inventory

Rising Florida home prices are being caused by low inventory levels.  Across Florida, median home prices increased 13.2% while the number of homes closed increased 8.8% In Southwest Florida, median home prices gained 16.5% in August over last year.  The number of homes closed also increased 16.5%.

Rising Florida Home Prices Statewide Numbers

We are seeing a perfect storm.  Low interest rates are driving consumer demand.  Other factors are in play as well.  Covid-19 has made people think about where they want to live, and where they want to work.  Many can work from home, so they might as well live and work somewhere they enjoy.  If they can live anywhere, they might as well enjoy the benefits of living in a low tax state.

Rising Florida Home Prices INventory Levels

When we look at the inventory levels, we notice listings always go down February through August or September.  You might notice a difference this year. Listing levels were already way down in 2019 due to a booming economy and low interest rates.  Fast forward to 2020 and we see that accelerating.  Not every part of the state is enjoying the success we are, but then again, many other counties enjoyed big price gains the last several years.  Lee County didn’t see that, so there is more room for gains than other areas of the state.

This past week the Ellis Team has worked on several multiple offer situations, both on the selling end and the buying end.  Scoring that victory for our clients requires determination and skill.  We work with buyers to structure their offer to look the absolute best it can to the seller.  Because we work with so many sellers, we know their concerns and can offer a lot of wisdom to our buyers.

Our sellers benefit greatly too.  The worst thing you can do in a market like this is take the wrong offer.  Buyers and buyer’s agents will present the story they want you to see, and it is our job to uncover the facts and separate the offers impartially so our seller can make the best decision.  Just because we have multiple offers today does not mean we will if we must put it back on the market in the future. You never want to squander a good opportunity, and yet it’s a fine line between determining whether it’s a good opportunity, or an opportunity to waste time.  This is where the wisdom of an experienced agent comes in.

The market is hot and we have rising Florida home prices. This does not mean all properties will generate multiple offers.  Proactive marketing must be employed to insure receiving top dollar.  Sure, you can get lucky, but who wants to play with luck in a market like this?  We never know how long these great markets will last. The biggest mistake most sellers make is being overconfident for too long and missing the market.  Subconsciously they hold on to the number in their head from 2 months ago all the while they’ve missed the market of the moment.

The Ellis Team has a plan.  We sit down and show you where homes have sold.  We go over the 3 things that will happen once your home goes on the market, and what to do in each scenario.  Our sellers are prepared for the market of the moment, and if the market shifts at the exact time your home is on the market, we can too.

If the buyers shift, we can adjust our marketing as we have the intelligence to us that.  Talk to Brett or Sande Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4 and we will be happy to discuss your options.  Even if you are not ready yet, it might help to begin talking about options should you decide down the road.  Information is power.

We also have a website where you can get a Free instant online valuation of your home www.SWFLhomevalues.com People love that website.

We are here to talk.  Brett and Sande are easy to talk to, and there is no pressure for you to do anything.  Call us and let’s chat.  You will feel better, and you’ll have some information that will help you make decisions.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

See Last Week’s Article “United States Housing Market Not Affected From Unemployment Yet

Like Southwest Florida, the United States housing market has fared very well in 2020.  A robust economy pre covid-19 and low interest rates are two factors that have fueled the real estate market locally and nationally.

We like to analyze data that may affect the market now or in the future.  When looking at national unemployment numbers we see that unemployment is falling fast and steadily from its peak in April.  The last time we saw double digit unemployment was 2009 and it took 4 years to fall just 2.5%.

United States Housing Market Not Affected From Unemployment Yet

We know that our current unemployment rates were forced by the Coronavirus outbreak and was precipitated by forced shutdowns.  It is not surprising that we are rebounding so fast and steadily., and yet we know that anyone who lost their job probably lost their ability to pay for housing for any length of time.  Thank goodness we had a good economy going into this thing.  Imagine how tough this would have been financially back in 2009.

United States Housing Market Unemployment By Age

Secondly, we like to look at who was most affected by job loss, as that may leave clues as to what is ahead for the United States housing market. The hardest hit segment is the 24 and under segment with current unemployment at 14.1% They make up 3.0% of all home sales in the United States housing market.

The 25-34 age group has 9.7% unemployment and make up about 25% of all home sales in the United States.  Lastly, we see the 35+ group with 6.8% unemployment.  They make up 72% of all United States housing market home sales.

Home Sales are Strong

This might explain why home sales have been so strong.  The majority of home buyers have been the least affected by unemployment. Low interest rates have helped offset any losses by affected home buyers.  Still, 8.4% unemployment and rising home sales may not be sustainable forever.  The good news is unemployment should not stay at 8.4% as those numbers are declining rapidly.

We plan to watch these numbers as they should leave clues about what is ahead for the United States housing market.  One potential scenario is it could hold back move-up buyers.  The 25-34 age group tends to be first time home buyers, and if a significant number hold off purchasing their first home it could impact down the road some move-up buyers who are ready to make their next move.

If the economy keeps improving and we get the service sector back to work, this should all work out.  Question marks remain how the travel and tourism segments will fare and people’s willingness to travel until covid-19 is under control.  Optimism in the vaccine and treatment fronts abound and this could help that segment recover sooner if therapeutics or prevention pans out.

Florida Looking Good for the Future

While the United States housing market may max out at some point until the economy recovers, Florida is looking rather good as many from out of state have found Florida desirable.  Florida is a net migration state from other states, so we may buck the trend if the national United States housing market maxes out someday.

At last check Lee County single family home inventory is down to 2.36 months supply of homes on the market.  Buyers must be quick and decisive to score a home in this market.  Sellers must be wise and patient, making sure they select the best offer for them, not necessarily the first offer that tried to box them into a quick decision.  This is where experienced agents come in.

Experienced buyer agents know how to make your offer as strong as possible.  Looking at it from the seller’s eyes is extremely helpful now, and therefore experience matters.

Sellers need experience now more than ever, so be careful trusting your home sale to an agent with little to no listing experience.  If you would like to speak to Brett or Sande Ellis about the process, we’re available.  Simply call 239-489-4042 Ext 4, or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free estimate of your home’s value.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

See last week’s article “Florida Real Estate Demand Heats Up From High Tax State Residents

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Florida real estate demand is heating up and we know it is coming from a few sources.  One obviously is low interest rates.  Who wouldn’t want to take advantage of these historic low rates if they could?  The other is heavy demand from northern buyers relocating to escape high state taxes.

Naples Relocation Patterns
Naples Florida Relocation Patterns

A recent report showed out of state buyers moving into Florida at a rate of 950 per day.  Florida has 67 counties.  You have to figure Lee County is one of the 10 largest counties by population.  It’s safe to assume Lee County is getting its fair share of those relocating from high tax states.

Let’s assume the top 10 counties are pulling half of the 950 daily relocations.  One tenth of 425 is 42.5.  Let’s cut that in half again and round that to 22.  If 22 people per day are moving to Lee County that equates to about 660 people per month.  Assuming an average family size of 3, 220 housing units would be needed per month in Lee County.

Florida Real Estate Demand Affects Housing Inventory

We have been witnessing our housing supply shrink each month as more contracts come in than new listings entering the market each month.  Lee County is down to a 2.36-month supply of homes which is the lowest I can remember in over 30 years practicing real estate in Lee County.

Florida Real Estate Demand Heats Up

Moving companies are reporting they have no more trucks available to move people out of New York City.  People cannot move out of there fast enough.  In Manhattan apartment vacancies are up 122% over last year.  Manhattan is not alone.  In fact, at Keller Williams we have intelligence that shows us where buyers are relocating from to our area.  I pulled up Naples in the system as an example to illustrate how this works.

Bonita Springs has different data from Naples which illustrates the point that each area attracts buyers from different areas.  The Ellis Team takes this data and advertises our listings in those markets.  What we find is a high level of lead conversion from those markets.  People up north are genuinely interested in leaving their state for Florida.

Everyone has their own reasons, and we hear them all.  Their reasons matter to them, and the first part of obtaining the lead is listening to the data.  When a seller hires us to sell their home, basically they are saying, “I don’t care where you find the buyer, just go out and get me some”.  Some Realtors aggressively market while other just place it on the MLS and pray someone else has a buyer.  The Ellis Team likes to go out and find the buyer.

Marketing Drives Sales

The best place to find the buyer is advertising where the buyers are.  We know many buyers are local, so we advertise heavily locally.  We also know many buyers are coming from out of state, so we advertise our listings in those cities where buyers are coming from. Florida real estate demand has never been higher.

I looked up the other day and we had 22 pending sales.  I wondered why we did not have 32 or 42 pending sales, and it dawned on me.  If we had more listings, we would have had 32 or 42 pending sales.  Our marketing is aggressive, and it is working.  The only thing it is lacking is inventory.  We can pare down this marketing at any time, but that would not be as fun.  We enjoy putting smiles on our seller faces when we bring them offers for top dollar.

If you have been thinking about selling your home, now might be the time.  You can call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-489-4042 Ext 4 and we will be happy to sit down and evaluate your options. Or you can visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant valuation of your property.

Do not let the best market we have ever seen pass you by.  Nobody knows how long this will last.  The Ellis Team is just a phone call away.  Good luck and Happy Selling!

See last week’s article “Seller’s Market Fuels Rise in Home Sale Prices