Today we want to share the national home prices trend data with you.  We’re back fresh from our national convention where KW Research shared some interesting statistics nationwide and for Canada, along with some projections on where the market may be headed.

National Home Prices Trend

We’ve included a graph for you to study that shows the history of home prices nationwide over time. Added to the graph is a trend line, which is a 4% gain each year over time. As you can see, from 1990 to 2001 home prices pretty much stayed on track to the 4% average yearly gain. Beginning in 2002 the national home prices trend began accelerating above the line. Home prices began slipping in 2007 but still remained above the trend line. That changed in 2009 when we slipped below the trend line, and we remained below the line until 2021.

What Did We Learn?

It took 12 years to recover and go beyond the trend line again. What this tells us is if we get too far ahead of the national home prices trend line it can take years to recover. This doesn’t mean home prices weren’t going up, because they were starting again in 2012. When we get too far out of normal, the market pushes back and tells us.

In 2021 we pushed ahead of the trend line. This is OK because we were below it for 12 years and had some catching up to do. The concern is how far above did we go, and for how long can we remain there?

In 2006 we were 21% above the trend line. That was dangerous territory. In 2024 we were 9.9% above the trend line. Again, a high altitude, but not necessarily dangerous territory. Time will tell if a correction is necessary.

Alternative Resolution

What is also possible is the home prices will stagnate for a few years nationally, allowing the market to catch its breath, then resume the upward 4% trend after a few years. Nobody knows how the market will catch up or correct, we just know the market will.

In SW Florida we’ve already begun correcting. Unlike the national home prices, our home prices peaked in 2022. The average median home price in Lee County in 2022 was $430,000. In 2024 it was $404,900. That is a 5.84% decline. In January official median prices stood at $399,500 so they are still declining. Keep in mind the yearly average is an average of the year, so end of the year stats can be less than beginning of the year.

Ahead of the Curve

SW Florida may be ahead of the curve. Or, it could be that our home price appreciated more rapidly than national prices and we had further to fall. In 2020 the median yearly single family home price in Lee County stood at $289,000. In just two short years that number rose to $430,000 which was a 48.79% gain. Surely that was above the 4% trend line for SW Florida. We’ll have to calculate that one of these days.

Market Video

We will be producing an in-depth market outlook video that discusses all the research graphs, both locally and nationally, and break it down for you. Our Channel is located at https://www.youtube.com/@Topagent

You can also check out our Free instant home valuation tool at www.SWFLhomevalues.com , or call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We’ve got about 4-8 weeks left of season, so now may be the time to get your home on the market. Our marketing works year-round, but we do have more visitors here in March and April than in other months.

Good luck, and Happy Selling! Let us know if we can help.

Encouraging news as total single family pending home sales rise in Lee County for the 7^th straight week. Season is a time when we would expect total single family pending home sales to rise, but there are other busy times throughout the year as well.

This week (Feb 18^th) Lee County had 1,832 total single family pending home sales. Last year at this time (Feb 20) Lee County had 2,011. The week prior (Feb 13) there were 1,856. What this tells us is that total single family pending home sales changes rapidly in February. We would not be surprised if total pending home sales increase to over 2,000 next week just as they did last year.

Total Single Family Pending

Total pending home sales tend to max out in March or April of each year. As we know, pending home sales lead to closed home sales, and those tend to peak in April or May of each year. So, we will be watching pending sales as is a predictor of future closed sales.

Many agents were sweating it as they watched inventory grow in SW Florida and the total single family pending home sales remained flat. We are still behind last year’s numbers but catching up fast. This is exactly what our market needs, because there is one big difference this year versus last year.

Three Times Number of Listings

This year we have almost three times the number of listings as last year. If total single family pending home sales are lagging or about equal to last year, it won’t make a dent into inventory numbers. This week there are 9,161 single family homes on the market. Last year there were 3,264.

Total single family pending home sales peaked March 26^th of last year and fell precipitously for the rest of the year. The 4^th quarter of last year felt especially brutal as pending sales dropped and inventory climbed.

2025 is a new year. We’re starting out behind 2024, and we know the 1^st half of 2024 was the strongest part of the year. So, one of two things are going to happen this year. If we continue the trend, 2025 will be a worse year than 2024 and things won’t look so good. One thing we know about real estate markets is they never stay the same for long. Real estate markets are not linear, because so many factors influence the market.

2025 could be the same as 2024. It could be worse. However, it could be better if we see new trends begin to develop. Rising total single family pending home sales was a trend we needed to see, and we are. Now we need to see it last through March or April. Mortgage rates have fallen just a bit, and oil prices are down.

Times Are Changing

It feels like the good economic news is brewing but will take time to arrive. Policy changes today may lead the markets higher, but later. If this is the case, 2025 real estate market may be a ho hum year leading into a better 2026.

If I were a buyer, I would seriously be looking at purchasing in 2025. Sure, rates are higher, but the deals are good, and the selection of homes is excellent. Buyers have negotiating power they won’t have when the market turns. Buyers can always refinance later if rates come down, but you may not be able to lock in these deals forever.

Sellers

Markets don’t always turn on a dime. If the market turns, it may take years to become a seller’s market again. Or it could remain a balanced market. Today we would define the market as a buyer’s market. If you need to sell, chances are you’re going to be purchasing something else in the same market you’re selling in.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We can sell your home and help you buy another. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to find out what your home might be worth. It’s Free and Fast.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

What are the three Ps in real estate, and why do so many agents use this method? Is there a better way to sell your home?

The three Ps in real estate are:

1. Put a sign in the yard
2. Place it in MLS
3. Pray that another agent sells the home

Passive Marketing

We call this passive marketing. The reason so many agents employ this method is because agents are asking for a higher split from their broker. Brokers have given higher splits to compete for agents, but not all agents were ready for this. Traditional brokers took their split and did all the advertising. Agents questioned why the broker took so much without realizing how much it costs to advertise a property.

Many agents believe that placing a home in MLS is all it takes to sell a home, because after all, home buyers see the homes on the major portals, which get their data from MLS. Agents promise to advertise a seller’s home in the portals, but this is automatic. This is not additional advertising. Since it doesn’t cost the agent anything, many will take a listing at any price because it’s free. And hey, if they have a listing, they’ve got a chance. Even if a buyer doesn’t buy their listing because it’s overpriced, it still attracts buyers, and the agent wins either way. The overpriced listing is used as bait to attract buyers

A Better Way to Market

Instead of passive marketing, we’d like to introduce Progressive Marketing. The three ps in real estate marketing should be:

1. Price it Right
2. Progressive Marketing
3. Price Watch

With so many listings on the market in SW Florida, it pays to price it right up front, or risk chasing the market down, netting a lower price in the long term. Free marketing isn’t going to cut it. The Ellis Team at Keller Williams uses many advertising mediums to sell their listings, and they cost money. If you’re paying a commission, you’re entitled to know all the places where a home is marketed, and whether it’s free and automatic or paid placement.

The last item is the price watch. The Ellis Team has set up a system that actively scans your price and lets you know immediately if action is needed.

Grocery Store Checkout Line

Imagine shopping at the grocery store and your cart is full. Do you pick the longest line or shortest line at checkout? If you’re like most people, you pick the line that will get you out of there the fastest. You’ve got ice cream and milk in the cart, and you want to get home fast before it gets warm.

The same is true in real estate. When you finally put your home on the market and get it ready for showing, you want it to sell as quickly as possible, and for the best price. The longer a home sits on the market the less it sells for. And what a pain it is to keep it show ready for months on end. How would you feel if someone tried to cut in your line at the grocery store? You wouldn’t let them. So why would you price your home and forget it in real estate?

Price Watch

At the time of listing, sellers discuss all the homes on the market that are competition as well as the past sales. Many list their home just under a neighbor’s home to compete. What if a new home enters the market after you list? What if an existing home reduces their price to better compete because their home wasn’t selling? You’d like to know that. Now your home isn’t competitive, and you’re floundering in the market. Price watch completes the Thee Ps in real estate.

The Ellis Team can help you with this. In addition to progressive marketing, we’ll watch your price and let you know if anyone cuts in your line.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant online value. This is not the same price check tool we use once listed, but you will appreciate our instant value tool as well.

We’ll See You at the Edison Parade

The comeback of the Model A.  When we first met James Moss, Automotive Curator at the Edison Museum, we knew we wanted him behind the wheel. In past parades our beloved Model A stole the show, but at times not exactly how we planned. One time halfway through the parade it stalled and had to be towed to the finish. But every team has a story to tell, and this year we’re writing a new chapter. Will the Model A cross the finish line on its own power?  Keep an eye out and wave as we roll through. With James Moss at the wheel and Brett riding shotgun along with Ellis Team members Bobby Wiliams, Lincoln Van Meter and Jen Kenely riding in the rumble seat or walking along, we will be cheering the Model A on to victory! Our Model A was onced owned by Al capone and was stored at the prison along with another Model A. Not bad for a prisoner.

Lee County 2024 year end sale prices were down 3.6% for single family homes, and down 3.1% for condos.

A number of factors could have caused this, but first we’ll look at this like a math equation. More homes came to the market then sold causing inventory to rise. When there are more sellers than buyers, it puts downward pressure on prices.

2024 Year End Sale Prices

Closed sales for the year were down 1.1%. That’s not too bad. The zinger to home prices was that single family inventory rose 29.4%. Rising inventory combined with slower sales is not a recipe for higher prices.

The condo market is even worse. Closed sales were down 16.4% in 2024, while inventory grew 44.8%. We now have an 11-month supply of condos on the market in Lee County. Many factors have contributed to this, not the least of which is rising insurance costs. The other major factor influencing condo sales is the new rules taking effect January 1, 2025, regarding engineering and reserve studies and forcing certain condos to catch-up all at once on reserves.

2024 for a downright awful year for real estate. Was there any good news as we closed out the year?

Good News

Insurance reforms are working. In 2024, 10 new companies entered the Florida insurance market. Citizens Property Insurance saw a decrease in policies of 428,650. Because Citizens is an insurer of last resort, this means private companies picked up those policies and are coming back.

32 Florida companies filed for a zero percent increase in insurance rates, while 17 companies filed for a decrease in rates. That’s good news. There has been a decline in litigation, presumably because of the new laws put in place in recent years to combat insurance rates.

The election is over. People can now move forward. Whether their candidate won or lost, we now know the direction of the government and policy. There were huge unknowns throughout 2024.

Rates peaked on January 14^th but have come down about .25% since then as of writing this article. We track the 10-year treasury yield since mortgage rates are more closely tied to this rate than others. Most experts believe rates will decline a little in 2025, perhaps less than 1%.

Where are We Headed?

Nobody knows. We can say pending sales have begun picking up, but not yet at a rate we feel they should. Inventory is still growing. A few weeks ago, we wrote an article that gave clues. In our view, 2025 is shaping up to be a lot like the 2019 market. You can read more about that on our blog at https://Blog.topagent.com Home sales typically pick up in February and March. We’ll be watching these numbers like a hawk and report to you.

Selling?

If you’re thinking of selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. We can answer your questions and provide market direction and statistics to help you make better decisions. Or go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant price for your home.

Buying

While we can’t say prices are at the bottom, this might be an opportunity. It’s impossible to predict the top or bottom. What we can say is there is optimism in 2025 that was not there in 2024. Phone calls are picking up, and showings are picking up. These things must happen first, and they are. We don’t go from a down market to up market and skip these steps. Pending sales may begin to rise in February, and if they do, closings may not be far behind. We believe now is an excellent time to buy before every other buyer decides to buy, becoming your competition.

To search the MLS like a pro, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com, or call us at 239-489-4042 and we’ll be glad to help.  Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Check out Ellis Team Featured Listings

While riding the train in Ireland last year the recording would state at each stop, “neither here nor there, mind the gap”. It was a profound announcement, and held more meaning the more you heard it. Here is our Mind the Gap Alert.

Neither here nor there appropriately applies to train cars. Are you coming or going? And if you’re in the gap between cars, where are you really? And if you’re neither here nor there, perhaps you should pay attention, as a safety precaution.

Mind the Gap Alert

The gap is the no-man’s land between train cars, and other items in our life. For salespeople, the difference between their goals and their sales are considered the gap. The difference between what you set out to do today, and what you accomplish is a gap. Perhaps you got sidetracked with life. An unexpected event draws your attention away from your task. Most people get drawn away easily because they do not want to focus on the gap. Rather, it’s easier, and sometimes more enjoyable, to work on an emergency than the task you’ve been dreading.

Real estate agents that prioritize their most important tasks get more done and have more sales because they do the important things first. Successful people do not let emergencies dictate their calendar. Most emergencies are not really emergencies, but we like to give them importance as to justify doing something that “Needs our attention” versus the thing that will create the results we want.

How does the mind the gap alert pertain to the local real estate market? The gap we are looking at is the distance between listing inventory and pending sales. If that number is growing, it means inventory is rising. When inventory is rising, it means there were more sellers than buyers the past week.

When it All Changed

From January through August of 2024 the gap was stable. If anything, it was getting better. Then August came and the market seemed paralyzed. Listing inventory started growing and pending sales dipped.

What changed in August? Some agents felt like it was the NAR settlement and the news of how buyers had to hire an agent to show them property. Others felt like it was the cumulative effects of interest rates and job market uncertainty. Still others blamed the uncertainty of the election outcome.

Nobody knows the real reason, but there is no denying we must pay attention to the mind the gap alert. Consumers clearly were not confident about prospects in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter of last year, and it showed in the stats.

2025 is a new year. Will consumer confidence pick up? Where will interest rates go this year? Consumers must feel better about their future before they buy big ticket items. It feels like we are starting to see that, but it is just a feeling buyers are giving off. We do not see it with the data, and we didn’t expect to. It’s too early.

The next few months are the foundation to the rest of the year, and it starts with leadership in Washington. Can Congress work together to get things done? Will the president’s vision turn into reality. Has America bought in? Has the world bought in? Time will tell.

Thinking of Selling or Buying?

We do not control any of that stuff. What we do control is minding the gap.  Whether that be in our daily lives or studying the real estate market and taking appropriate action to get results, it is up to us.

If you have property to sell, there are things you can do. Check out your home’s value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com and track it’s value every month. Or, search the MLS and find your next home, or search your competition at www.LeeCountyOnline.com

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We are the hardest working team in real estate, and we’ll help you mind the gap with our experience and data research.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!