Let’s look at the latest SWFL housing demand numbers and see if we can spot some trends.

SWFL Housing Demand Numbers

 Inventory tends to increase in season then decrease after season for two reasons. Either a property sells in season, or an owner takes it off the market because it didn’t sell. Some owners only want to sell in season. Some owners believe properties sell for more in season. The numbers suggest higher sales prices in season, but that doesn’t mean homes sell for more in season. Many times, higher priced homes sell in season which raises the overall numbers. That is different than stating that all homes went up in value in season.

SWFL Housing Demand Numbers July 2025

Pending sales tend to decrease after season. There are less eyeballs viewing properties in season because less people are in SW Florida out of season. The buyers that are looking in the summer and Fall tend to be good buyers, and more are local. Some buyers fly back into SWFL in the summer to purchase because they started shopping too late in season or didn’t like the prices of what was listed.

Ironically, buyers turned off certain properties because they did not agree with the value. Sellers turned off and took their home off the market because they did not agree with dropping their price any further to meet where the buyers were for their property. That’s what we call a good old-fashioned standoff. Both buyers and sellers are turned off, so they both sit back and wait.

What Happens in Fall

 Sellers who would like to sell took their home off the market waiting for prices to increase. What happens if the market stabilizes and thousands of sellers all decide to put their home back on the market? What about new sellers that haven’t tried yet but would now like to sell?  As interest rates decline and the economy improves, home prices might not go back up as there is shadow inventory waiting to hit the market. We use the word shadow for home sellers that are not selling now but would like to when conditions improve.

Advice to Sellers

 The market may not improve for you much even when rates decline and the economy improves. You are in competition with all the other sellers, both on the market now and in the future. We don’t know how many there will be, but we do know how many tried and failed. That is a clue. They raised their hands and would have sold, so it’s safe to assume they’d like to sell at some point in the future. The market will eventually improve, but it may take time. We have to work down the inventory, both current and future shadow inventory.

If you’d like to sell, think about your motivation. What will this sale do for you? If you’re not motivated and willing to meet the buyers where they are, you may not have success. Other sellers have tried and failed. Those that succeed meet the market and they sell. Remember, if you are also buying in this market, you benefit from the same market you don’t like as a seller.

Always Call the Ellis Team

Call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 and we can go over your home value, your motivation, and discuss if now is the time for you to sell. It’s possible you’ll get a better price today than you will months from now. Nobody knows for certain because we can’t predict how many sellers will decide to sell. We can sort of predict the buyers, but they are not your competition. The other sellers are.

Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a free online instant home value which you can track over time. Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Today we’d like to bring you a real estate industry update. A lot has happened since we last updated you on these topics.

Real Estate Industry Update

Real Estate Industry Update

Compass Real Estate brought a lawsuit against Zillow over real estate listings. At issue is Zillow’s refusal to display Compass brokerage listings that are privately marketed outside MLS. Zillow wants Compass to market all listings in MLS so Zillow can display them.

Zillow uses agent listings to display on their website, then sell leads back to real estate agents.  They do this in a few ways. One way is Zillow has a contact agent button on each listing. That lead goes to a Flex agent who pays Zillow up to 40% referral fee when the property closes. Buyers are surprised to learn they are not dealing with the listing agent and must sign a touring or showing agreement with the Zillow agent before viewing the home. Many times, the Zillow agent shows up at the open house with the prospective agent, and the open house agent and the customer is confused about what everyone is doing.

Zillow Flex agents are under pressure because they have to make contact immediately and document for fear of losing Zillow leads. 40% is a heavy price to pay Zillow when the agent receiving the leads also has a split with their brokerage.

Sellers Astounded

 Sellers are astounded to find out when buyers click on their home in Zillow the lead is not going to their listing agent. You know, the agent who knows more about the home than any other agent and is motivated to sell the home. The Flex agent is motivated to sell a home and does not care if it’s that home. Furthermore, the Flex agent may know nothing about the home or neighborhood The home generated a lead but who knows where it’s going?

Homes.com

Homes.com is a large real estate portal like Zillow. The difference is when the home inquiry comes in, it does go directly to the listing agent. The buyer will be dealing with someone that knows the home and the neighborhood, and the seller’s situation. Realtor.com sells leads as well and doesn’t tell you that another agent not associated with the property may be contacting you. While the listing agent is technically identified in a separate part of the page in small print, that is not where the contact agent or email agent inquiry goes to. The agents receiving the lead have absolutely no motivation to sell that home. Sellers may want to ask if their home will be promoted to Homes.com listings. This does cost the listing agent money, but it is worth it. The free listing on Zillow and realtor.com aren’t free when leads go elsewhere when they purchase. Homes.com QR Code

 

Compass Real Estate

Compass Real Estate is in a conundrum. Not only are they in a lawsuit with Zillow, but they are also at odds with the National Association of Realtors over their clear cooperation policy. Compass wants the ability to market listings outside of MLS, meaning the public won’t find out about them unless they are working with a Compass agent. Some sellers are reluctant to list with Compass and receive less exposure now because of this legal squabble. Zillow slams Compass “Hidden Listing Scheme in response to Compass lawsuit

Compass argues that it might be in the seller’s best interest to not be marketed publicly. Many experts think this stance is ridiculous, while others see some merit to it in certain situations. We do not agree with Compass’ assumption on a mass scale. However, we do believe sellers and brokerages should have the right to market as they please. The customers can decide if this is best practice based upon their personal situation.

Check out our listings on Homes.com. Tell us what you think. As a seller, would you rather inquiries be sold to a random agent or go directly to the listing agent? As a buyer, would you prefer to deal with a random agent, or receive information directly from the listing agent? We’d like to hear your thoughts.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Today we wanted to cover the final Big Beautiful Bill Passage benefits to real estate that the president signed on July 4th. If you own real estate, or thinking of buying, there’s a lot to like in this act.

Final Big Beautiful Bill Passage Benefits Real Estate

Final Big Beautiful Bill Passage Benefits Real Estate

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit was made permanent and increased by 12.5%. Additionally, the bond financing requirement was reduced, as well as adding a 30% basis boost for properties in rural and tribal areas. The goal was to increase the supply of affordable housing and help entry-level home buyers.

Section 1031 Like Kind Exchanges were preserved. By maintaining this provision, investors will be able to defer capital gains and re-invest in other properties while preserving cash flow.

Permanent Cap on Mortgage Interest Deduction up to $750,000. This will provide certainty for borrowers and maintain home ownership as a solid tax strategy.

Permanent Mortgage Insurance Deduction. Borrowers can now permanently deduct PMI, FHA MIP, VA funding fees and USDA guarantee fees subject to income limits. This reduces the effective cost of low-down payment loans which should make homeownership more affordable.

Temporary Raised SALT Deduction Cap. This was raised from $10,000 to $40,000 per household from 2025-2029. This will help homeownership in high tax states for the next 4 years.

Restoration of 100% Bonus Depreciation. This will help property owners with new construction or acquisitions as well as those doing renovations or tenant improvements.

Permanent 20%  Deduction for Qualified Business Income. Since most real estate qualifies as a trade or business under IRS guidelines, real estate investors can deduct 20% of their net rental income which will lower their effective tax rates and improve their yields.

Gain on Sale Rollover Provision Maintained. Real estate owners maintain the ability to roll over gains on property sales into opportunity zones and other structures,

Always Seek Tax Advice From Your Tax Professional

There are many other provisions in the tax act, too numerous to mention in this article. We focused this article on the provisions that affect home buyers and investors. Other provisions are designed to kick start the economy, like the section 179 expensing cap increase, the 899 retaliatory tax elimination, and the permanent small business estate tax exemption. The estate tax threshold was set at $15 million and is inflation adjusted. This provision will make it easier for families to transfer generational wealth without forcing them to sell to pay the IRS.

Investment in US

Companies now are incentivized to build factories in America and hire US labor, bringing jobs back to America. The final big beautiful bill should boost real wages for workers and provide a higher standard of living.

New data suggests import prices are falling despite tariffs. With inflation falling and real wages set to rise in the US, this act could be good for home buyers looking to begin building wealth for their family by buying real estate. Too many buyers have been priced out of the market. A correction in prices combined with lower interest rates and new tax provisions might be just what the doctor ordered for those struggling to make ends meet.

Best Place to Search Real Estate

Check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com It contains all the listings. Some of the real estate portals like Zillow and Redfin are banning certain listings, so you won’t see them all. Some brokerages are purposely not sending listings to Zillow and Redfin, and they are in lawsuits over the issue. Our website displays all the listings, so you’ll have access to everything in Real-Time. Check our neighborhoods, sold data, and home value estimates all in one site. You can even save your search and be notified when new listings or price changes hit the market.

Call Us

You can always reach our team at 239-489-4042. We’re here to help, and easy to talk to. We’re never pushy. We listen to your needs and provide valuable insight. Buyers and sellers thank us for listening and presenting options they never thought of. What can we do for you?

Official Lee County home sold prices are out and May was a rough month for prices. Remember a few weeks ago our internal data suggested home prices would be down 8.46% in May. Official figures show home prices down 9.6% from May previously.

Official Lee County Home Sold Prices for May

Condo prices were down 8.8% as well from the previous year. As you can tell from the chart, home prices have been falling monthly. May single family home prices were at $375,000, down from $390,000 in April. There is some seasonality to the numbers, but there are no denying home prices have been on the decline.

Interest Rates

Since the brief Iran conflict, interest rates have been heading down. The 10-year note is down to 4.258% as I write this article more than a week in advance. A lot can happen in a week, but if this trend continues, it may help alleviate some downward pressure.

Oil is also down since the conflict. If this trend continues, it paves the way for Fed to begin lowering interest rates this year. The Fed meets again in late July. Many expect they won’t reduce until September, but evidence is beginning to support a reduction that could come at any time.

One Known Wildcard

The US is up against a debt limit, and tax policy is uncertain going forward. If Congress passes a bill that solves both and keeps taxes lower, the economy is set to take off again. If congress fails, taxes will skyrocket and the economy will stall, so much is at stake. If the economy does well, it eventually trickles down to the real estate market.

Unknown Wildcards

There are many, but they seemed to have calmed down after the Iran conflict. The world needs US leadership, and that’s what they got. That leadership appears to have sent a message to Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. China could take over Taiwan at any time, but the way Iran was handled may quell that for the time being.

When the world is this quiet and this good, it makes me question if somebody is up to something. While US leadership sent a message that was received across the globe, I never trust silence for too long. We’ll take it for now.

Selling in This Market

If you have property to sell, you should talk to Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500. The Ellis Team had another record month in June. Our marketing and experience pays off in a market like this. Other agents are having difficulty getting showings while the Ellis Team is selling homes. Sit down with Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis and find out what makes the difference. We can show you some things we do that other agents do not do, like advanced marketing and advanced AI. Be sure to read last week’s article about AI in real estate. While every agent uses AI for simple tasks, few are using it to do the powerful things AI was meant to do. Official Lee County home sold prices may be down, but not all home prices are dropping.

Check Your Property Value

We have a Free online value estimate tool. Check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com It’s fun to see the new values come out each month and see how it changed. Our system will do that for you. And remember, computers are great, but we’re only a phone call away from a conversation about your situation. You can call us and we can brainstorm your best options.

Enjoy the 4th of July weekend and remember the freedoms we enjoy here in the US did not come free. We earned it, so let’s enjoy it.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!