Home prices remain flat as home sales dip. October median home price in Lee County was unchanged at $400,000, the same as last year. The average sales were down 3.2% to $530,281 in 2024, down from $547,676 last year. We prefer to use the median price as it’s less susceptible to high or low sales influencing the number.

Total single-family homes closed were down 13.6% in October. 2024 is tracking to be one of the lower sales volume years, and a sign of how unhealthy the economy is in 2024.

Interest Rates

Interest rates fell at the end of last week slightly, which would be a welcome sign if they continue. The talk of government cutting spending is welcome news to the bond market. It’s almost as if the bond market wants to believe the government can cut spending, but given their track record the markets are hedging their bets.

Additionally, inflation is still too high, but new data will be coming out in the next few weeks. PCE is due out November 27^th, but this article is written on November 25^th ahead of that report. If PCE comes in at .2% or less look for interest rates to lower. If it comes in higher, we might have to wait for rates to come down further.

Inventory

SW Florida inventory is rising. Pending sales have been slow, although slightly better in the last week. New listings are outpacing new pending sales by a wide margin, which leads to increased inventory. High inventory is one reason home prices remain flat. With the election behind us we hope that buyers will begin to focus on their real estate goals heading into 2025.

Lower interest rates may help get some buyers off the fence if they occur. Season is near, and already winter is hitting northern states with a fury. Early winters usually spur people’s interest in Florida.

Flood Insurance Update

In case you missed it, FEMA has decided to place Fort Myers Beach on probation. This means they lose their 25% discount. Essentially flood insurance just increased 25% on the beach. Probation also means they could lose the flood insurance program altogether if they don’t make more changes. This probation could last up to 2 years before rate discounts would apply, if they qualify.

How will flood insurance rates affect property sales on Fort Myers Beach? We do not know. All we can say is it’s unfortunate as they have worked hard to maintain that discount. It may not be the end of the world, but it’s never good when costs increase that much so suddenly.

Best Search Site

Where can you go to find the best deals in SW Florida? www.LeeCountyOnlinie.com is the best place to search. Not only can you search all the homes, but you can save searches so that new properties matching your criteria will be emailed to you when they arrive. It’s like a store sending you Black Friday deals tailored just for you, all year long. Give it a try and let us know what you think.

Of course, you can always reach us at 239-489-4042. We have all the technology, but there’s no substitute for speaking with a live person that will listen to your needs and work with you to accomplish your goals. AI is nice, but we think in the end most people will want to work with a human they can trust. Our team looks forward to working with you.

After you’re done shopping all those Black Friday deals, check out what our SW Florida real estate market has to offer. There are some deals out there, and the best time to buy is when there is product on the shelves. The worst time to buy is when the shelves are bare. It’s a good time for buyers right now.

Good luck, and Happy Shopping! Let us know if we can help you.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

2513 SE 24th Ave Cape Coral FL 33904

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

10813 Denninghton Rd Fort Myers FL 33913

Inventory levels have been growing this Fall, so we decided to do an election day months’ supply of inventory report to see how it changes after the election.

Months’ supply of inventory grew across the board in all price ranges since our last update in September. Election day months’ supply of inventory stands at 5.9 months. Anything over 5.5 months supply is considered a buyer’s market.

The over $1 Million price range came in the highest at 9.74 months supply.  Not surprisingly the lowest price range on our chart, below $300k, came in a 3.12 months’ supply. In the last two months, the over $1 Million price range gained the most supply at .78 months, followed by the $300-$400k range at .67months.

The inventory supply has been hit at both ends of the spectrum. Pending sales have been declining while inventory is growing. In other words, more homes are coming on the market than leaving the market.

Turn Around

What’s it going to take to turn this market around? It’s not going to happen overnight as the Ellis Team Current Market Index stands at 5.27. This is the highest number it’s been in a long time and tells us the local real estate market is headed in the wrong direction. Our current market index has been an accurate predictor of future home prices, but it can turn around.

Lower interest rates would help. Interest rates have been marching higher all Fall due to inflation concerns. Inflation and government spending just isn’t what the markets hoped it would be by now.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumers are maxing out credit cards, so many fear the consumer spending fueling the economy may run out of steam. A little bit of good news, whether it’s the economy, interest rates, or reductions in inflation could give consumers some hope. How people feel about their future finances goes a long way towards big spending decisions, like housing.

Election Day

We are writing this article on election day, so we have no idea how the election will turn out. Hopefully we’ll know within a day or so. The sooner everyone knows the outcome, the quicker people can move on with their lives. Even if their candidate didn’t win, at least the outcome is known. Sometimes just mentally knowing an outcome can help people move past whatever is holding themselves back. I feel like people have been holding back from big decisions pending the election.

No matter who wins, we won’t expect things to turn around on a dime. The next president won’t take office until next January, and it takes time for plans to be put into place. It could be a year or more before changes take full effect. The mindset change may take effect immediately, but the policy effects may not be known, especially if we have a divided government.

Tracking

We knew the SW Florida real estate market began changing Feb 15, 2022. We definitively knew June 14^th,  2022, that the market would turn when the supply-demand line crossed over. It was at that point price increases were over. The Ellis Team Current Market Index confirmed price increases were over. It was just a matter of time until it showed up in the statistics.

Going forward we will be tracking the supply-demand graph, the month’s supply of inventory graph, and the Ellis Team Current Market Index. These three indicators should tell us if this market will indeed change again.

The market will change again. The question is always, when, which directions, and at what speed? We look forward to reporting on how our local real estate market responds after the election.

Track your home’s value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com Every month our system will send you your home’s new value, along with changes in conditions for your area. You probably watch your stock portfolio on a regular basis, so why not track your home value too? We have the tool for that.

Good luck, and Happy House Selling!