May closed home sales rose 2.7% over last year’s numbers in May, showing that buyers are active in the market when affordability shows up.

Interest rates ticked down, which helped with affordability, and single-family median home prices were down 6.7% from last year as well. Both factors contributed to an uptick in closings and pending sales.

Pending single family home inventory is up 18% over May 2023, and internal data suggests inventory has capped in June even though official May numbers show inventory is still rising. Official numbers lag our internal data collection in real-time.

Condos

Lee County condos are another story. Closed sales are down 16.1% from last year, and inventory is up 122.9%. We currently have a 10-month supply of condos on the market. New pending condo sales are down 24.9%. The median sales price of a condo in Lee County was down 2.9% from last year. Some condos are easier to sell than others. Factors that affect salability include whether the master association has a flood policy, because this affects if lenders will lend. Other factors include the total cost of condo/HOA fees and insurance.

Forecasts

Forecasts continue from FNMA continue to show 2024 should be a better year than 2023 in closed sales. FNMA is predicting a 9.0% increase in the number of single-family home sales. This could be because inventory has been tight across North America, and they are expecting more to come on the market. However, this coincides with what we are seeing in SW Florida home sales.

Many people believe nothing is selling, and it only feels like that when you see homes sitting on the market longer. The reality is more homes are selling this year, so long as they are marketed correctly and priced properly. Buyers have less motivation than they did a few years ago, and higher prices, higher interest rates, and rising insurance costs caused this.

While home sales are rising, we can continue to see home prices fall more. 7.1 months’ supply of single-family homes means we are in a buyer’s market. Even though we are tracking declining inventory in June internally, inventory levels have only slightly decreased. Prices are a lagging indicator to inventory. Additionally, we’ve seen a 4-week reduction in inventory, but that’s not enough to call it a defined trend yet.

The Good news is inventory has stopped rising in June. Prices may continue to fall, but at some point, that will level out if we continue to close more units and inventory declines. We expect interest rates to fall slightly by end of the year, and again slightly in 2025. If we can get insurance under control and escape hurricane damage this year, 2025 may be brighter than 2024.

Prime Time

The 2^nd half of 2024 may be prime time for buyers. Prices have been coming down while there is an excellent selection of homes available. Sellers are willing to negotiate, and rates are coming down a little. Buyers may lose some leverage heading into 2025 and may look back on 2024 as the prime time to purchase. Originally, we thought the first 6 months of this year would be prime time for buyers, but the timeline got pushed back because of inflation. The Fed was not able to begin lowering rates due to pesky inflation. We hope future inflation readings will be kind so the Fed can act later this year. The absolute earliest they would change would be at the September meeting, and it could go until November, depending on the data.

Home Value Tool

We’ve got a new tool on our website www.LeeCountyOnline.com that provides an instant estimate of your home’s value. Additionally, it provides an equity analysis on your home, and allows you to ask questions about your neighborhood and the market. It’s a great way to explore home value options, even if you’re just curious about the market. Check it out.

And remember, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 with your real estate questions. Brett and Sande are here to listen and help you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Suspicious Activity in Fort Myers Neighborhood

Single family home listing inventory declines third straight week in SW Florida. Currently there are 6,417 active homes listed on MLS, which is down from 6,475 the week prior. This is a decline of 58 homes.

We decided to investigate what is causing the decline in inventory. Are more homes selling? Are sellers giving up and taking their home off the market? Did more homes suddenly go pending? These are all great questions, and here is what we found.

Listing Inventory Declines Third Straight Week

According to our MLS, 1,462 homes closed in May. We know the official number will be higher as Realtors from outside MLS’s could have posted some sales invisible to this MLS. In May of last year, we had 1,428 home closings, so we picked up 34 closed over the previous year. Total pending sales are down 28 from the previous week. This doesn’t exactly answer the question.

Next, we looked at new listings versus pendings and closings. New listings totaled 328. Solds totaled 260 for the week. Pendings totaled 325, so new listings outgained pendings by 3. There were 85 back on the market, and 79 withdrawn. The back on market could have been pendings that fell out but could also be people that had taken off market temporarily.

Bottom Line

 The bottom line is we cannot tell why inventory has peaked and declined slightly. We know nationally when interest rates decline, we see an uptick in pendings. Locally that wasn’t the case as total pending sales dropped by 28. Interest rates have declined slightly after the jobs report showing some weakness in labor and inflation moderating ever so slightly.

The Fed has said we are nowhere near our target of 2% inflation, but at least it quit going up and we saw a .1% pullback this past month. If they can see continued moderation of inflation the hope is interest rates could go down by end of year or early 2025. We believe once rates start coming down it could accelerate a little because there is a cushion built in by lenders due to risk. Once the direction of rates become clear, they might release that cushion.

The good news is that listing inventory declines third straight week and may have topped out. Back in 2022 we spotted a trend where listing inventory began rising in February. It wasn’t long until June 7^th when listings began outpacing pendings, and we knew the days of rising prices were over.

Currently we have a gap of 4,452 homes between listings and pendings. We are nowhere close to saying price drops are over, but at least the trend seems positive.

We’ve seen a similar gap at many points in time going back to December of 2023. Fort his reason we cannot say the recent good news is sustainable or the start of a new trend. It is simply good news for 3 straight weeks, and we’ll take it.

Marketing and Price

Marketing and price are still the most critical components of a successful sale. The seller controls both right now. The seller determines who they feel is best able to market their property, and they control the price. The market determines the value, so when a home is marketed properly and the price equals the value set by the market, the property will sell. Failing at excellent marketing and improper pricing often results in a no-sale situation.

Always Call the Ellis Team

Sande and Brett 239-310-6500 can answer your questions on price, and our marketing is second to none. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free instant estimate based on local conditions. There is a reason Sande and Brett have been voted the Best in Real Estate 12+ years. We’d love to show you how our marketing and expertise can work for you. Who you hire matters! We’d love to earn your business.

Good Luck and Happy Selling!

Video of our New Home Value Tool.

Ellis Team Online marketing Program Producing Results.

Here are the ad results from last week’s Ellis Team online marketing program. We held two open houses, and for the purposes of this article we’ll show results from one of them.

We advertised 5407 Parker Dr online and several people showed up to the open house. In addition to our print ads, newsletters, email campaigns, signs, online portals, etc. we also do targeted and segmented online ads.

Ellis Team Online Marketing Program

The first ad result is from our segmented ad. The ad produced a click-thru ratio of 19.79% which is very high. There is a reason for this. The industry standard is 1-2%.  Of those clicks, our website converted 21.62%, which is also very high. What this tells us is we are reaching the right people, and they are engaging and learning more about the home.

The second ad was a targeted ad. It was designed to reach a larger group of interested buyers. And it did. It had a very good click-thru rate of 7.65%. It was not designed to gather customer info but rather expose the home to more people interested in real estate in SW Florida.

Both ads are different than traditional boosted ads because those ads are simply blasted to online users and not necessarily people interested in real estate.

What’s the Difference?

You might ask, what is the difference between a targeted ad and a segmented ad? A targeted ad takes data from Facebook, Realtor.com, Zillow, and other sources and targets people with an interest in real estate.

A segmented ad is Ellis Team Online Marketing internal data we have collected from tens of thousands of buyers for SW Florida. We know exactly what these people are looking for because they are on our website searching all the time. We are able to segment them based upon what they are searching for and serve up ads that meet their criteria. It is a much higher level of marketing. It requires technical expertise, and of course the data.

Because the Ellis Team online marketing program has been so successful over the years, we have data nobody else has. We use this data to benefit our sellers, and it works.

What it Doesn’t Do

The Ellis Team Online Marketing Program does not sell homes. It is designed to get our listings in front of the best buyers. Our people is what sells the home. Technology will not sell a home, but it can speed up getting in front of the right people. Our buyer agents are trained to be the best in the business. Marrying the best advertising with the best leads, working with the best agents equals a seller’s best chance at selling their home faster and for more money.

If a home is overpriced, the marketing won’t matter. The fact is some listings in SW Florida are overpriced. However, some sellers are reluctant to lower their price because they’re not convinced their home has been market properly. If a home is marketed like the Ellis Team online marketing program, the problem is not the marketing. It’s the price.

Condition

Some might say, it’s not the price, it’s the condition. Again, it is the price for the condition the property is in. Can a seller improve their value by improving the condition? Yes, they can minimize the loss in value due to condition, or neglected upgrades.

A seller will never know the reason their home did not sell if the home was not marketed for all its worth. If you have a home that did not sell, call Sande or Brett Ellis at 239-310-6500. We can take a look at the marketing your agent did and the price and help you make some decisions.

If you’re thinking of putting your home on the market, why not start out at the Top? Call us today, or email us at Sande@topagent.com or Brett@topagent.com We’ll help you sell your home and onto your next venture.

Find out what your home is worth online instantly.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!