Official sales numbers are in and it shows August median local home prices down 3.6% from last year. Average home prices were down 7.5% from a year ago. August median prices were $405,810 this August in Lee County compared to $420,750

Average home prices this year were $535,629 compared to $578,873 last year.  If we go back and compare against the height of the market back in April and May of 2022, median home prices are down 13.66% and the average local home prices down 18.71%

We have been amazed at how stable pricing has been given two factors. Interest rates have gone from the 2’s into the 7’s in a record amount of time.  Secondly, inventory has quadrupled in the last 18 months.  While prices have remained amazingly stable the last 12 months, most people don’t realize the price declines we saw last year from May through December as rates began rising rapidly.

Buyers Waiting For Prices to Fall

We hear many buyers are cautious to purchase because they believe prices are going to fall. Nobody knows for sure if prices will continue to drop. However, most buyers do not realize prices have already fallen almost 14-19%

Buyers listen to the news, and the headlines say prices may fall out and foreclosures could rise. We believe the economy would have to get a lot worse for anything like that to happen.

We do know that for every 1% rise in rates it takes away approximately 11% purchasing power away from the buyer. Because rates have gone up more than 4%, you might fear buyers can now afford 44% less than they could 18 months ago.

This may be true. The hope is that enough people with money will continue to come to Florida. Interest rates have hurt a large portion of the market, but people moving here are the wildcards.

What We’re Watching

We are keeping our eye on inventory levels. They are spiking.  If the trend continues it would tell us more people are putting their home on the market than people moving here. For right now, inventory is OK.

However, we have noticed the rate of increase in listings the past few weeks. If the rate continues to climb while pendings continue to go down, this could change the dynamics in a matter of weeks.

Thinking of Selling?

I would call the Ellis team now 239-310-6500. Our inventory is still low as our homes have been selling. We hear from other agents they expect a slew of homes coming on the market starting in October. We have been on several listing appointments in the past 9 months where the sellers haven’t decided to sell yet. It could be that many decide all at once the time is right. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant online estimation of your home’s value now.

Government Shutdown

We are writing this article the Tuesday before an anticipated government shutdown. Any shutdown will not help real estate sales, as new national flood policies will not be written. Buyers will be forced to buy private flood insurance at sometimes much higher prices, or wait to close. We may be able to assume a seller’s flood policy if they have one.

FHA, VA, USDA loans may cease as well. This would disrupt a certain portion of the financed buyer market and would certainly harm home sales.

Tricky Times

Tricky times call for experienced agents. Home insurance is difficult on a good day. Throw in possibly higher rates, or high rates lasting into 2024 and 2025, and a government shutdown and you’ve got a mess. If you are selling today, you need an expert who’s been through market shifts, government shutdowns, and insurance problems before. About 85% of the agents working today have never worked in a shifted market, and even fewer were here for the 1995 and 2013 shutdowns.

Experience Matters

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. The Ellis Team has been voted Best in Real Estate 11 years in a row by News Press Readers.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

The Lee County Florida housing demand gap widens in August to its largest point in years. Last July we reported the gap was widening. Since then, the gap has widened another 21%. This means that Supply is outpacing demand.

Housing Demand Gap Widens

Back on June 7, 2022, we knew that the market crossed over. More homes were coming on the market than going off.  Inventory started increasing in February of 2022, but it wasn’t until June that we reached this critical point.  Even though we say critical, it still takes months for it to influence the market.

We have been seeing the number of price reductions in the 9-11% range of all listings as sellers have been reacting to the market. This past week it was 7.9% and the week before that was 8.08%. This tells us that sellers in general are tired of reducing their price, or they believe a buyer is just around the corner.

What might be around the corner is another home on the market competing with existing homes. Buyers today have more to choose from, and they are being squeezed by higher interest rates.

Last week we posted an article about how home prices have remained relatively steady. The current market is tracking like 2018, and 2018 showed us the market can take more listings without significantly impacting home prices. However, if you are a seller and wish to move, you must be price competitive against your competition. You either win on price, or your home must offer value that exceeds your neighbors.

This value could be a refurbished home with a new kitchen. It could have newer major items such as roof, HVAC system, appliances, water heater, etc. Or it could have some improvements your neighbors do not have, like a pool and spa, outdoor kitchen, or other upgrades.

Marketing Matters

 No matter what your home has, in addition to offering value, it must be marketed correctly. I know of a home on the market listed by another Realtor that is not selling. Their neighbors cannot believe it hasn’t sold yet. I have no idea where the agent may be marketing the home, but I did spot a glaring item that may be holding buyers back. Sometimes things in the MLS are entered incorrectly. This item I feel should be mentioned in the confidential comments. The fact that it isn’t leads me to believe either the agent is inexperienced, or the agent has no idea it is entered incorrectly.

What Will the Fed Do?

Some people believe the latest labor numbers will give the Fed a chance to pause rate hikes in September. Others believe they are not done and will continue the rate hikes. Rising interest rates along with rising insurance costs are sapping home buyers’ buying power. The housing demand gap widens in August, and further rate hikes could widen it even further.

Home prices are steady for now, but there could come a tipping point where there are just too many sellers for the number of buyers. So far, not all sellers are motivated. They do not have to move. Some would like to, but they don’t have to. Over time needs change, and if listings keep piling up, sellers may be forced to sell at lower prices.

This is why we track supply and demand numbers. It gives us clues into the future. Prices are a lagging indicator to these metrics, and sometimes the metrics change back again before prices move.

Current Market Index

A better barometer of the forward direction of the real estate market is the Ellis Team Current Market Index. We no longer publish this index as it is reserved for our clients. What we can say is the index has moved in one direction for 4 straight weeks.

If you are thinking of selling, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Not only will you receive the finest marketing in all of SW Florida, you’ll also receive decades of experience which is especially helpful in changing markets. And you’ll receive our up-to-the-minute statistical analysis, so you can make decisions ahead of other sellers who won’t be as educated as you on what’s really happening.

Good luck, and happy selling!

Search the MLS like a Pro with adnaced search features not found on other sites.

Top 10 Buyer Questions