We just posted two new videos of our Future of Real Estate show. The first segment, Pricing Your Home to Sell – Future of Real Estate demonstrates the Pricing target, which shows homeowners how well their property is priced depending on the number of showings, drive-up, and drive-bys. This graph is very informative and has been tested across North America with many Star Power Stars and attendees, which are the highest producing agents in the country. Brett, Mike, and Sande of the Ellis Team are Star Power Stars and and enjoy learning and sharing great ideas with other high powered agents.
We also talk about the expiration of the National Flood Insurance Program for the third time this year and what that means for closings in SW Florida, as well as a new Condo and HOA law that was signed by Governor Charlie Crist this past week. Also information on banks participating in the HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives). Stay tuned to Topagent.com
The second video Featured Hot Listings – Future of Real Estate SW Florida features four new listings, one in Daniel’s Park which is a gated community in South Fourt Myers for $165,000, and other in Brandywine in Myerlee for $20,000, one in Carillon Woods and another in the Forest Country Club. We also tell you how to view virtual tours of all the Ellis Team Listings, as well as search the entire MLS for free.
It’s been a little while since we’ve reported on inventory levels and pending sales in SW Florida. We’ve been reporting on record sales levels all of 2009 and into 2010, and increasing prices the past few months. So how has this affected inventory levels, and how are pending sales doing which reflect future sales activity?
Enclosed is a chart that illustrates Fort Myers and Cape Coral inventory levels over time. It does not include the entire county, and while countywide numbers would be higher in total, the graph looks very much the same.
Fort Myers Cape Coral Single Family Inventory Levels 2010
As you can see, back in 2005 we had about as many pending sales as we did active listings in MLS. We all know what happened about September of 2005, and the graph perfectly illustrates this. By tracking these numbers it was easy to predict what was going to happen in 2006. Then something happened again about December of 2007. We noticed inventory levels peaked, and within a few months pending sales picked up steam, an indication the market was on the move again. Since February 2008 we’ve seen a steady increase of pending sales, and this has led to much higher sales levels in 2008 and record sales levels in 2009.
Sales activity has remained strong in Fort Myers and Cape Coral. We have noticed a decline in foreclosure properties entering the market, and also an increase in short sale closings in SW Florida. Normal sales have also increased. Total distressed sales declined in April from March, while all sales increased slightly.
So what does this all mean going forward for SW Florida? That’s an interesting question. One would think prices would continue to increase, and this is a distinct possibility. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a slowing in actual sales as prices rise. Prices today are still near bargain basement prices, but a dwindling foreclosure supply may lead to higher prices.
As we see higher prices, investors will either be more motivated to scoop up everything they can, or less motivated because properties won’t cash flow as easily, and future capital gains are lessened with each price increase.
This leads us all back to first time home buyers, move-up buyers, and vacation or 2nd home buyers. We don’t see many move-up buyers today, presumably because local buyers don’t like the sales price they’ll receive, even though they love the new price on a home they may be seeking. We also don’t see a lot of confidence in the local employment market. We believe jobs will ultimately fuel real estate growth once we move past these bargain basement prices, and it is for this reason we could see lower sales volumes as prices rise.
We probably won’t see a full blown real estate recovery in SW Florida until the economy improves and jobs return. The answer to this situation is likely the answer to the previous question. Our local real estate market is riding the wave of investors and northerners looking for their piece of sunshine at sale prices, but once the sale is over, this wave will only last so long, and this is why we’ll need job growth to sustain the recovery after this wave.
Inventory levels have been holding steady, and buyers have been ready, willing, and able to absorb the entire inventory the banks could throw at the market. It will be interesting to see if buyers are willing to absorb more now that foreclosures are slowing down. This will be an interesting supply vs. demand match, and we’ll report back on which side takes the upper hand.
Last week we reported showings and phone calls were down for a few weeks after Easter according to several agents we spoke with, but that all changed about a day after writing the story. Phone calls and offers picked up significantly last weekend, so it’s very hard to judge the market on a daily basis.
This week we decided to step back and analyze April 2010 vs March 2010. Official numbers won’t be released until next week, however we believe we’ll see a year over year increase in home sales about 9-10%, and we believe prices will up again over last year as well.
Single Family Home Sales in SW Florida March-April 2010
We’ve created a graph illustrating sales numbers for March-April of 2010. Sales for single family homes increased ever so slightly over March. We then wanted to know the mix of foreclosed homes and short sales. Foreclosure sales actually fell 10.43%, while short sales rose 12.96%. This coincides with our predictions back in March that we may see a rise in short sales as bank gear up to handle more short sales.
Foreclosure filings have been down, so 6 to 12 months in the future it’s reasonable to assume there may be less foreclosure properties for sale, especially if banks continue to increase their short sale efforts.
Our numbers are close to but not identical to official numbers that will be released next week for one reason. We use data from multiple MLS’, but there is the potential for some listing overlap if a property is listed in more than one MLS. Statistically that runs about 5% give or take. We’d rather have a little overlap than miss a lot of listings and sales.
Condo sales were up in April over March, and that would be expected as condo sales tend to build throughout the season and culminate in April. Condo sales are increasingly difficult to finance with new regulations on approving not only the borrower, but also the association itself. Many March closings were pushed back to April, and we suspect many April closings may get pushed back to May, so May could be a good month due to high sales and delayed closings, both in the condo and single family markets.
Headlines next week should read home sales up somewhere around 10% +/- depending on what the official figures are, and home prices up as well. Last year’s April median home price dipped to $85,500. March 2010 median figures shot up to $95,100 up from $88,000, so even if prices hold steady from March we should be reading about price increases.
Next weekend is Memorial Day weekend, so sales activity will drop-off as people plan their time off. It will be interesting to note people’s perceptions of Florida and their willingness to book vacations here in advance due to the oil crisis in the Gulf. Many visitors come back in the summer and buy. Additionally, the Euro is now worth less, so it will be interesting to see if that affects foreign visitors this summer with less buying power. Hopefully once we sort out the Gulf oil spill, our Chambers of Commerce will promote the area as a great place to visit. We count on many of these visitors to buy property in Florida each year, so we do want them to visit and spend money in Florida and help our economy.
In the meantime, let’s enjoy some positive publicity next week. Our market is due for positive news, and it helps buyers to understand that prices are rising and inventory is shrinking little by little, and the time is now to step up if they want in on today’s bargains.
Seems like the topic of the day is what’s up with the oil slick and how will it affect us? The answer is it could affect us in three ways: Environmentally, Economically, and Politically.
We’ll leave the political arguments to the experts on TV. Environmentally people realize how it could affect beaches, sensitive estuaries, fish, and the like. Economically this could have a ripple effect on boat captains, restaurants, tourism, and ultimately real estate.
Gulf Coast Oil Spill's Effect on Real Estate in Florida
We should not put our heads in the sand and pretend like it doesn’t exist, but I think too many people are suffering from FEAR (False Expectations Appearing Real) Many times the potential of what could be is far worse than anything that actually happens.
Here are a few real estate examples. I remember on two occasions a church was proposed that backed up to a subdivision. All sales stopped for homes that backed up to the potential church. Potential buyers looked at a future church as a commercial albatross or something and were afraid to buy for FEAR values would go down after they buy it.
In both of these subdivisions where the church went in, sales resumed immediately after buyers saw what was. They feared what could be and shutoff, but once erected they could deal with what was.
Remember back to Hurricane Charley in 2004? Charley put SW Florida on the map, and many feared the bad publicity about hurricanes would mean nobody would buy here again. I guess the old saying “There’s no such thing as bad publicity” is true, because people flocked here in droves looking for property in 2004. In 2005 it seemed we had a hurricane every weekend somewhere in the vicinity, and it didn’t stop people from buying. What ultimately doomed SW Florida real estate in 2005 wasn’t hurricane related at all, it was a man-made financial crisis. The whole point I’m trying to illustrate is that what people feared didn’t hurt us at all, and in fact even the bad publicity seemed to help. It drew attention to our area.
The jury is still out on what will happen with the oil. After a slow start, it appears that the government along with BP is pulling out all stops to break it up. There’s a chance the oil could go some places and not others. I am certain that local Chamber of Commerce departments are gearing up ad campaigns depending on what happens. If the oil doesn’t come here, you could just imagine all the tourists who were supposed to visit Biloxi MS, Destin, etc. coming here instead. And this scenario could play out up and down the coast depending on the oil.
If the oil does come here, we know the government will employ a massive cleanup effort and things will look fine. I worry more about the wildlife and the unseen effects more than waterfront prices and real estate. I think our real estate will be just fine. What may not be fine are businesses that rely on fishing and tourism in the short term.
It is for this reason we must all join together and do whatever we can like they are doing now in Louisiana. Let’s do what we can to protect our environment, our beaches, our seafood, and our way of life. The more we do for our environment, the less effect it will have economically and politically. Let’s turn this disaster into something positive. Let’s increase regulations and add protections to minimize this happening again. Too many people and wildlife depend on a clean environment.
Real estate will be just fine. If the oil comes, FEAR may affect us in the short term, but real estate will recover. Let’s hope the same can be said for our environment and people who depend on clean waters.
It was bound to happen. Back in 3rd Qtr of 2005 we went on TV and said this market is getting ready to hit some bumps in the road. We looked at the data and determined the Boom was over and it was simply a matter of time before the market reacted. In reality we started noticing signs in the 2nd Qtr of 2005, but everyone was busy rushing around trying to get their construction deals put together and finalized. We began pulling our investors out of projects in early 2005. We risked some commission dollars by doing so, but we just didn’t feel good about what was to come.
We took a lot of heat back then. We heard things like “You can’t stop this market, it’s on fire” and “It’s a runaway train” etc. Most of us learned growing up that nothing goes up forever, but back then it was that herd mentality. It was quite common to go to a cocktail party and hear stories of average people flipping home after home and making $100,000 per deal. They were buying as many as they could, without a true end user in mind.
SW Florida Real Estate Prices Single Family Homes
We all know what happened to those days. Just as nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever either. If you read these articles regularly you know we’ve been predicting that about March or April of 2010 we could see prices actually rise over year ago prices and the headlines we would read would be quite different than what we’ve seen over the past 5 years. Well, Official numbers were just released this past week, and guess what? Prices are up 9% over last year. It’s not a miracle. If you’re unemotional and study the numbers you could see it coming.
We’re not rocket scientists. Most Realtors have a good pulse on the market and can tell you what’s really going on. And just because the headlines read one thing, there can be many submarkets reacting quite differently or bucking the trend. You’ve heard that all real estate is local, and that’s true. Even in the Boom market some properties didn’t fare as well as others, and in the down market, some didn’t do as poorly either. Full time Realtors are on the front lines and see trends as they develop. Sometimes it’s beneficial to step back and analyze the numbers, and others it’s great to be right in the race and see what’s happening in real time. Sometimes it’s great to do both.
Where will the market go from here? That’s a good question. Some speculate that the Home Buyer Tax Credit Expiration April 30 will have a negative impact, but we’re not so sure in SW Florida. Many of our buyers are scooping up bargains and don’t qualify for the credit anyway. We think home sales should continue their torrid pace as long as we have bargain inventory. 2009 set an all-time record and 2010 sales have surpassed 2009 sales. Our prices are artificially low, in many cases half or reproduction costs. This is why you see so few building permits being pulled.
Because we are not seeing building activity, it is limiting employment in our area, which was so heavily dependent on the building and real estate industries along with related services. We don’t believe prices will shoot back up wildly until we create more jobs, and we may not create more building jobs until prices shoot back up. So it’s the old chicken and the egg theory. We think we’re going to have to find other employment opportunities to help lift our entire economy back up so we’re not so reliant on the building industry. Once we do that, the building industry will take care of itself. We would caution governments not to add impact fees and other costs that price jobs out of the market. We need to be more competitive, not anti-competitive.
And finally, resist the urge to follow the herd. The herd is usually on right for a brief period of time, and usually at the tail end of the curve. Our market is Hot, and prices rose last month. We point out that even though the herd considers 2005 the Boom, there is more opportunity in the air now than there was in 2005. Misery was in the air, just few people realized it back then, and today opportunity is in the air, and the herd will realize it only after prices rise substantially in a few years.
We’ve been talking quite a bit the past several weeks about HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) program and other programs designed to make selling a short sale easier. Going forward, these programs should provide some much needed relief for many sellers, and open up the market for more buyers.
We’ve noticed a trend this past year developing in the Lee County SW Florida real estate market. As we’ve reported, sales numbers hit record levels in 2009, and prices look like they may have stabilized. We’ve noticed that total distressed sales are down significantly since last May. Our definition of a distressed sale in either a bank foreclosure where the banks sells the property on the open market after they’ve foreclosed, or a short sale by a seller hoping to avoid foreclosure and protect their credit.
Distressed Sales in SW Florida
Fort Myers is showing the most strength with only 47.83% of sales being distressed in March 2010. Compare that to Cape Coral at 62.0% and Lehigh Acres at 74.19% Lehigh Acres is down from the whopping 88.5% set last June, even though they have leveled off about 75% the past 4 months.
Cape Coral has also declined, down from 78% last May to 62% now. This chart explains why prices have stabilized in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, and why Lehigh Acres is a little shakier at the moment.
Inventory levels are down in all three segments, and sales are up significantly over February in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, and up moderately in Lehigh Acres. Officially sales numbers have not been released at the time this article was written, and we believe going forward we’ll see some median price increases in Lee County, and especially in Fort Myers and Cape Coral.
We’re studying preliminary numbers, and we’re seeing an approximate 28% jump in sales over February numbers for single family homes. There was an increase in distressed sales, but the majority of the increase was regular non-distressed sales, and this is encouraging going forward in 2010.
We’ll be keeping our eye on the market after the home buyer tax credits expire on sales after April 30, and on interest rates which are creeping higher. Nationally consumer confidence is rising, and eventually that should trickle into job growth. SW Florida has been hit hard with high unemployment, and we really want to study these numbers as ultimately employment will be the engine that fuels SW Florida real estate prices in the future.
Always consult a CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert).
It’s a fact that 7 out of 10 distressed home sellers go into foreclosure without visible intervention to improve their situation. We speculate that sellers do not realize there is help available, and that doing something about their situation is better than just walking away.
Many sellers we talk to are embarrassed about their situation, while others are simply depressed and don’t wish to speak about it, hoping their financial situation will improve in time to change things. The sad reality is once a homeowner falls behind; it’s very difficult to ever catch back up, even if their job situation improves.
We’ve been reporting about the new government HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) program announced on April 5 designed to improve short sales. We’ve also told you that 2010 will be the year of the Transaction, either a short sale or foreclosure as loan modifications have not worked (use a personal loan calculator to work that out for yourself.
This past week we’ve met several large banks who have all committed to diligently approving short sales in a quick fashion. Many agents and buyers have been reluctant to offer on Short Sales because the truth was they were really Long Sales. This has changed and may now be a viable alternative for sellers and buyers alike. If your loan is with Bank of America, Wachovia, or Wells Fargo, it may now be possible to streamline your short sale. Other banks are following suit depending on who the end investor is on each loan.
We’ve provided a chart for sellers to illustrate the financial advantages of considering a short sale VS. foreclosure. Some of the details may affect you well into the future. You may wish to discuss this with your attorney as well, especially if you’re considering bankruptcy.
Why a Short Sale May be better Financially Than a Foreclsoure
The good news is the short sale process has just improved dramatically, and while still very complicated, can provide relief for struggling homeowners and help them restore their credit so they can move on with their lives much sooner. This economy will improve one day, and it will be nice when current distressed homeowners can look back and not be held down by circumstances of the past. The short sale is one such tool to accomplish this.
This past week we sat in on a meeting with the founder of RE/MAX, Laurie Magiano with the US Department of Treasury, Matt Vernon who heads the Bank of America Foreclosure and short sale department, and the president of Equator, the online transaction management platform for 7 of the 10 largest banks for foreclosures and short sales. The topic was HAFA, the government’s new initiative which stands for Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program.
SW Florida Foreclosure Versus Short Sale Graph
The government’s new plan is voluntary for lenders, and it does not include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned or guaranteed mortgages as they are working on their own solutions to assisting and speeding up the process. The government’s new plan allows for homeowners to receive $3,000 for moving expenses if the seller agrees to a short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure. A short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure is better on the sellers credit than a full blown foreclosure and will allow the seller to purchase a home much sooner than a foreclosure.
The plan also stipulates that the seller will not receive a deficiency judgment, so the seller won’t be bogged down with debt payments in the future resulting from the sale of the property. This is big as it’s been a stumbling block for many sellers in accepting a short sale. The seller’s housing expense ratio should exceed 31% or lender will believe seller can afford payment, and lenders will be particularly mindful of strategic defaults where seller has money saved but chooses to walk away anyway, especially on the higher loans.
The new regulations, if the lenders agree, stipulates that the 2nd mortgage holder will receive 6 cents on the dollar, which is far more than a foreclosure where they won’t receive anything, and much more than the 2-3 cents banks sell debt for on open market. The 2nd lien holders have held up many short sales, and now that the government has set guidelines, it should make it easier having a roadmap to negotiations.
The new guidelines also call for lenders to make decisions within 10 business days as to the viability of doing a short sale, and banks such as Bank of America are committing resources so that agents will now receive communications within 2 days, so the days of asking questions and not hearing anything for weeks or months may be over. Bank of America has put systems in place whereby an agent can contact a negotiator’s supervisor if the agent has not heard a response within 2 days, and the Treasury department has given us an e-mail address to escalate all inquiries no matter who the lender is so they can step in and help.
Everyone in the room agreed that short sale transactions could one day outnumber foreclosures, and that would be a good thing as sellers credit is better preserved, and lenders generally lose less money on a short sale versus a bank foreclosure, and 2nd lien holders get paid something. The property tends to remain maintained and require less fix up than an abandoned or vandalized property, which further upholds values in the neighborhood.
There is one other advantage few people think about to a quick process. Many short sales are priced too low and will never sell, but they subliminally drive values down in the market as some view the unsalable short sales as the new market value when in fact they’re artificial and won’t be approved. By speeding up the process, or issuing pre-approved pricing, this should help alleviate this phenomenon and improve the market almost immediately.
Stay tuned as these are lofty ideals, and we’ll report back on how well they actually work. Of course, this will depend on how many of the lenders and investors participate in the voluntary program. See our Future of Real Estate Show discussing new HAFA program on short sales.
This is the age old question everyone asks. How is the market doing? Have we bottomed? When will prices go back up? When will my home be worth what I owe? How long until we get back to 2005 prices? Should I sell or rent?
Actually we get more questions than this, like should I pay my mortgage, should I pay my homeowners association fees, etc. We’ll stick with the value questions for this article.
We’ve included a graph illustrating median prices since 2008. Median prices don’t tell the whole story, but they do tell a story. The definition of median price is half the sales are over and half under a certain price. As you can see, prices have fallen sharply since January 2008, and even more dating back to 2005. Ironically, home sales are up and setting records precisely because home prices have fallen. We’ve explained this in depth in past articles.
SW Florida Real Estate Prices Graph
Average sales prices were approximately $365,000 back in January 2008 vs the median price of $225,000. We have been watching how the average and median price are related, and we have a chart in our annual State of the Market Report on Pg 4 that shows the relation over time between the two. This report can be found at www.Topagent.com
The average price gives us a little more depth to the market and helps us understand the overall breath of the market. As we’ve been saying for quite some time, we expect higher priced foreclosures and short sales to actually pull the median price up, and we believe this will occur. This past week official numbers were released, both statewide and nationwide. Prices actually fell 3.3% vs. last month, and were down 9.74% from last year.
Some might ask if we do all this research, when will our predictions come true. Our best estimates have been we could see year over year price increases as soon as March or April data. March data won’t be released until next month, but keep in mind these are only predictions about the future and nobody knows for certain. We are fairly confident this will occur; the question is more of when.
We have been looking at both median and mean average sales price data and it appears that prices for both dropped since December 2009 as official data would indicate, however were are seeing some price increases in March data that would indicate this trend has reversed, at least temporarily. Keep in mind we have many more closings that occur at the end of a month that could skew the data, but the trend looks good.
We would also expect sales this time of year to be higher as our Northern visitors are here and buying property as well, and many of these sales are in the higher than median price range. Many of these sales will occur past March into April and May, and many will come back and buy in the summer.
Ultimately prices will be determined by jobs and the economy. As more people get back to work, it should slow the foreclosures, and bring more people to the area. When will this occur? I think it’s so much easier to forecast prices in the short term than predict the overall economy. Congress has been focused on health care and the climate more than the economy, so it’s really hard to predict what’s coming out of Washington and how it will affect us and the economy, especially since we’ve largely been kept in the dark until something passes.
We would encourage our government to turn its attention to actually helping the economy, or get out of the way so small business can begin creating jobs and getting us back on our feet. Once the economy starts looking up, Main Street can begin to recover and prices can begin to rise. Our prices are artificially low, and they won’t stay that way forever. Prices are well below replacement cost, so builders are on the sidelines now as they don’t wish to build at a loss. Our market will increase in value perhaps 40-50% before this occurs, and this is why buyers today have a chance at building substantial equity quickly.
Once the dust settles and our market reaches price equilibrium, builders will be building again, bringing more jobs to the area and sustainable price appreciation. Good times await those who buy now and ride the coaster on up to equilibrium.
A few weeks ago we wrote about attending a recent bank foreclosure and short sale conference. We told you that banks and the US Treasury department have learned that home retention and loan modifications are not working, and that 2010 will be a year of “The Transaction” either by short sale or foreclosure. More banks are actually pursuing both simultaneously.
We’ve been illustrating graphs showing the percent of distressed sale activity in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Lehigh Acres for months now, and this week we decided to update Short Sale activity. While analyzing MLS data this week we noticed foreclosure sales have dropped in January and February to about 579 per month, down from approximately 700 or so the previous 5 months. This can be attributed to a backlog of foreclosures in process and a moratorium in place early in 2009.
Closed Short Sales in SW Florida
We also noticed a stabilization and recent up tick in short sales, reversing a decline in December 2009. Will these trends continue? Let’s start with the foreclosures. We believe foreclosure sales will increase in 2010 as the backlog comes to the market. In fact, we’ve received a large volume of foreclosure listings we’re working to bring to market. It typically takes time to secure the property, assess the condition, the value, workup a Broker Price Opinion, compare that against the bank’s new appraisal, and meet with the investor to develop a marketing strategy on each property. All of this is done through the use of a bank asset manager, either an employee of the bank or 3rd part asset manager. Either way, asset managers specialize in disposing of REO (Real Estate Owned) bank foreclosures.
Once the value and strategy is determined, the property goes from a pre-listing to an actual listing complete with instructions. The agent then lists the property in MLS and solicits offers. Many times the property elicits multiple offers, and the agent presents all offers that match the bank’s criteria. For instance, we are not allowed to present any offers where we have not personally verified cash funds to close on all cash deals, nor are we allowed to present any subject to financing offers without pre-qualification from that bank’s in-house loan officers. Banks do not want to take properties off the market simply because a buyer presents a pre-qualification letter from an unknown or out of town bank or mortgage broker. Speaking from experience, banks and agents have had bad experience with pre-qualification letters. They are easy to get, and are rarely worth the paper they’re written on, so it is quite natural the bank wants their own people to look at the qualifications of the buyer if they are getting a mortgage. The borrower doesn’t have to use that bank, but the bank will not look at the offer unless they are offered their pre-qualification letter with the offer.
So we know 2010 will offer more foreclosure properties that have been initiated in 2009. What about short sales? Banks are not offering loan modifications as much as they have proven that they do not work long term. Politicians still promote the idea as it sounds politically correct, but it further exacerbates the problem. We are seeing large banks making a push to go online. Bank of America for example now negotiates their short sales online through a system called Equator. We have been using Equator to handle Bank of America foreclosures for years. We hear that banks such as Wells Fargo and perhaps others are in the process of adding their short sales to Equator.
This online venue will allow greater efficiency and allow more people to touch the file, reducing the time it takes to approve a short sale. The short sale is still a complex transaction and homeowners should not attempt it alone. In fact, your bank will refer you to use an agent who is familiar with the process. Short sales are not for every agent and should only be tackled by agents who are committed to learning and operating in a very rigid and complex process. Buyer agents regularly interview listing agents to make sure the listing agent knows what they’re doing, because if they don’t, the process will fail.
Look for 2010 to see rising foreclosure sales throughout the year, and perhaps rising short sale numbers as well. The banks are committing resources to it. We’ll keep reporting the numbers we track, so check back often.
