January 2024 Home Prices Fell 3.6% From Last Year

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Median January 2024 home prices fell 3.6% from last year. Average home prices were up 8.7% in January. The reason we don’t look at average home prices as an official number is because it can be skewed by a few large sales and tends to be more volatile.

January 2024 Home Prices Fell 3.6% From Last Year

 

Home prices typically rise from January through May because they are seasonal. Our highest home sales typically close in season and culminate in May. We will be keeping a close eye on home sale prices going forward into February and March.

Pending Sales

We are down 133 pending sales from this time last year.  Single family listings are almost double what they were last year. In my mind, double the listings and 133 fewer pending sales is not the equation for price increases. However, in time prices will naturally increase once supply and demand levels out as repaired homes from the hurricane will have newer roofs, windows, appliances, flooring, and other items that will increase the salability of older homes that needed some updating.

In time, prices will rise, and it could start later this year. Once inventory begins to level off and pending sales rise due to future lower interest rates, it will give us a chance to work down some of this inventory. We don’t know for certain when interest rates will begin to fall, how much they will fall, and what shape the economy will be in once they do begin to move.

High Rates to Hang Around?

For now, high interest rates seem to be in the cards. Everybody was talking about several rate cuts this year. Now the experts are not thinking that. What nobody is talking about is what if the feds must raise rates again. Hopefully holding rates steady will tame inflation, but higher oil prices can move inflation higher quickly, and we’re not doing anything to tackle energy prices. So, we sit and wait, and pray that things work out.

We have some good news on the insurance front as more carriers are entering Florida. We still believe this will take a few years to translate into lower rates, but we’re hopeful. We’re also hopeful we’ll see a modest storm season this summer; however, weather experts are expecting a transition from El Nino to La Nina this summer and warn of a very active hurricane season.

Hurricane Season

It’s a shame that Floridians know so much about La Nina and El Nino, but they do because they need to. An active hurricane season, it doesn’t mean one will hit here. When you were the target of a big one, the next few years seem like everything will come our way. SW Florida escaped the big one after Hurricane Donna in 1960 for about 50+ years when Hurricane Charley hit. I remember locals telling newcomers that hurricanes never come here because they hadn’t seen one personally. Our fear or confidence comes only from our experience and not from actual statistics. Statistically, we may not see another big one here for a while, but then again, we must always prepare.

Cautious Optimism

We are watching pending home sales. We are encouraged that they have risen in the past few weeks. If they continue rising into March it could be a good sign if rates do decline later this year. We track them weekly and will report our findings. Official February numbers will not be released until the 3rd week of March, but we’ll have some preliminary numbers for you before then.

As always, if you have real estate questions, or are considering buying or selling in SW Florida, it pays to work with an experienced team that knows the numbers. We can be reached at 239-310-6500, or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS like a pro.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Lee County Housing Supply Increases in February

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Lee County housing supply increased in February up to 5.84 months supply, up from 5.05 months at the beginning of the year. Let’s break down which price ranges have changed the most.

Lee County Housing Supply February 2024

All price ranges increased in inventory, but as we go higher the effects seems to be much greater. For instance, the $300-400k market increased by .44 months. The $400-600k market increased by .82 months. The $600k-$1 million market increased by 1.07 months, and the $1 million+ market increased by 2.31 months.

Lee County Housing Supply Grows on the High End

 The data shows the higher priced homes have been hit the hardest by inventory supply. So, what is causing the buildup in inventory? Is it increased homes for sale or decreased sales, or both?

For the $300k and up price ranges, it’s a mixed bag. Home sales in the $300-400k range are steady, down only 7 sales. The real reason is inventory is up 164 listings. For the most part, the increase is due to more sellers bringing their home to market and the market not absorbing them.

The $400-600k range saw a decrease of 46 sales and an increase of 237 listings since the beginning of the year. This tells us more listings are coming to the market, and there are less buyers for the existing inventory, let alone new listings.

In the $1 million plus market, sales only declined by 10 homes. The reason inventory supply shot up so much is because listings increased by 214 homes.

Technically the $400-600k range had the largest drop in home sales and the largest gain in listings, so you would think this range would have the greatest increase in housing supply. The reason it is not is because there are so many more listings in sales in this price range than the $1 million plus range, so the changes don’t move the numbers as much.

Cost of Sitting on the Market

If you have a home in one of these price ranges, it pays to know exactly what the market is doing, We have a series of charts that shows definitively the cost to sellers when they fail to understand where their home fits in the marketplace. The charts show the difference in selling in a stable market versus a shifted market, and the disadvantages of chasing the market down. When Sande and Brett meet with sellers at a listing consultation we can go over these graphs, as well as the inventory graphs of our current market.

Economist of Choice

It is by truly understanding the market data that a seller can make appropriate decisions about marketing their home. Marketing is a combination of pricing a home commensurate with today’s market conditions, as well as all the daily activities and paid advertising sources a Realtor employs to sell a home. Your selection of a Realtor should consider who will pay to advertise your home, how much and where they will do so based upon results, the activities and communication the Realtor provides, and the pricing based on today’s market conditions. The Realtor you select should be your economist of choice, not who tells you what you want to hear and is your friend.

If you selected a price to sell your home 3 months ago, it may already be outdated. We spend hours each week making sure our listings are current with the market. If we met with you in the past but did not list your home, we need to update that value because it could be obsolete.

Market is Always Moving

We have one of the best free online home valuation tools available at www.swflhomevalues.com. However, even these online value tools can be several months behind the market. It pays to consult with a real estate professional that can provide you detailed market statistics. While the online tools are great, nobody really knows how they come to the conclusions they do.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

FEMA Flood Insurance Discounts by Community

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FEMA flood insurance discounts range from 5% to 45% and is determined by the participating
community’s level of participation. In other words, communities can lower their premiums by taking
action to mitigate future flood losses.

FEMA Flood Insurance Discounts by Community

FEMA issues a class rating to each community based on the activities they take. Essentially, the
community earns points towards a discount. A class 1 rating earns the 45% discount, and a class 10
rating earns no discount. Class 9 earns a 5% discount.

How to Earn Credits

What can a community do to earn credits? The first is having elevation certificates for new construction.
Have written procedures for managing floodplain-related certificates for new construction in the
floodplain. The second item is having a map information service for those that inquire. I count 19 items a
flood plain manager can do for the community that earns credits toward flood insurance. For more
information, check out https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management/community-rating-system

SW Florida FEMA Flood Insurance Discounts by Community

So how do our local communities score on the discount scale? Most SW Florida communities scored as
a class 5 and earned FEMA flood insurance discounts of 25%. Estero earned a class 6 which earns a 20%
discount. Fort Myers didn’t do as well and only earned a 5% discount. So flood insurance policies in Fort
Myers would be more than Lee County, all else being equal.

This is why floodplain managers had to enforce the 50% rule for damaged properties after Hurricane Ian.
Had they not done so, they risked losing credits under the Community Rating System which would have
affected the discounts all insured policy holders pay. The better the community does earning points
towards a discount, the less everyone pays who hold a National Flood Insurance Policy (NFIP).

What Can You Do Individually?

You can contact your community or municipality and ask questions about how they are managing their
floodplain policy. Perhaps plans are in place to increase activities to obtain more credits. The credits are
divided into four main categories:

Public Information, Mapping and Regulations, Flood Damage Reduction, Warning and Response. FEMA
updates their certification on a regular basis. The above numbers are current as of October 2023.

FEMA Risk Rating 2.0

I met with FEMA last week. They told me they are evaluating properties on a continued basis. Not only
does FEMA evaluate the floodplain management plan of the community, but they also look at each
property. They use tools such as satellite imagery, topographical measurements, and proximity to
nearby waterways to determine risk levels. The published FEMA maps can change at any time. I happen
to live in flood zone x, so flood insurance is not required on my property. However, I get a policy anyway
because I never know when FEMA might change the map.

Grandfathered Rates

Current NFIP policy holders are grandfathered in even if FEMA changes the map. In these cases, rates
can only go up 18% per year. Let’s say you have a policy that costs $800/yr. FEMA changes the map, like
they did a few years ago, and now your flood insurance would be $3,000/yr. In this hypothetical
example, next year’s policy would cost you $944 ($800+18%) If you didn’t have flood insurance, and not
it is required by your lender, it would cost you $3,000.

Flood Policies Assumable

NFIP policies are assumable, so if you have a policy that is grandfathered in, it makes your property
more attractive than another nearby property with similar rating at a much higher rate. Private flood
policies are not typically assumable, so be careful not to give up your NFIP policy unless it makes sense
for you.

If you are considering selling your home, talk with an experienced agent who knows how to handle and
market assumable flood policies. It can make a difference in your sales prices. An experienced agent can
help you in so many ways, and flood insurance is just one example.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 and we’ll give you the information you
need to get Top Dollar for your home!

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

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Waiting For Lower Interest Rates a Dangerous Game

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Many buyers we talk are waiting for lower interest rates before purchasing a home. Today we’re going to explore why this may be a dangerous game, and why we believe the next 6 months may be the best time to purchase your next home.

Waiting For Lower Interest Rates a Dangerous Game

Traditionally home prices appreciate about 4% per year over time. Some years yield more, and some years yield less. Even though we have a greater supply of current inventory on the market right now, we don’t have enough supply to satisfy all that will be able to buy when rates move lower and those moving here. Builders have not been keeping up with demand moving to Florida.

Waiting For Lower Interest Rates Home Price Appreciation

FNMA issued home price predictions moving forward. If you were to buy a home in 2024 using their price predictions your home would be worth $472,405 in 5 years, for a gain of $72,405.

Interest Rate Comparison

Let’s say you could finance a home today in the 6.5% range. The actual rate doesn’t really matter because the point I’m going to illustrate is a 1% interest rate decline from whatever rate you could get. If a buyer were to finance today at 6.5% mortgage rather than a 5.5% mortgage it would cost them $3,802.71 in extra interest for the 1st year. As you pay down the principal the interest declines slightly for each year. The total a buyer would pay over 5 years for a 1% differential in rates would be $19,027.04 in this hypothetical example.

Wait a Minute

A buyer who does nothing waiting for rates to decline would cost themselves $53,377 by waiting.  Now you might argue, “yes, but what if the buyer bought a year or two down the road? It wouldn’t cost them the whole 5 years.

Equity loss by waiting for interest rates to drop 1%

That’s right, it wouldn’t, but we have three other items to consider. First, the buyer who waits for rates to decline down to 5.5% may convince themselves to wait longer until they come down to 4.5%. Those that wait now are just as likely to wait longer later. Secondly, as rates come down, inventory may come down and there would be less homes available to bid on. Getting the home that meets your needs could get tougher. Lastly, when inventory gets low, prices can appreciate faster, especially when builders have not kept up with new demand. Existing homes just are not enough for all those moving to Florida.

If you were around a few years ago, you know that when things heat up, a 4% appreciation rate is conservative. Waiting for lower interest rates can be a dangerous game.  It’s kind of funny, because back in December of 2017 I wrote an article about the cost of waiting as interest rates were rising. It’s ironic that there is a cost of waiting as interest rates are falling as well. The result is the same, it’s just the variables in the equation have flipped. If you’d like to read that article it is available at https://blog.topagent.com Simply go to the archives in December 2017.

Best Time is Next 6 Months

We believe the Fed won’t begin to lower rates for about 4-6 months. The mortgage market may bounce up or down, but until the markets get a sense of bond market stability, rates will remain high. Buyers have a window as inventory is building. They are in their best negotiating position, but that window could close or shrink later this year.  Why not buy now and lock in those potential gains? Then, when rates do go down, refinance and capitalize. That way you can lock in appreciation and lower housing costs later if rates fall. The best of both worlds, and you’re on the equity train.

Don’t be that buyer that waits, and waits, and regrets it later. Some people wait to see evidence the market has turned, and it’s too late for them. All the people who should have bought in 2018 but waited are still kicking themselves.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We’ll get you pre-approved with a great lender and a ticket on the equity train to start building your wealth. Call us today! Search the SW Florida MLS like a pro.

Third Best Dollar Volume Year on Record in Lee County

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2023 was the third best dollar volume year on record in Lee County. Dollar volume measures the total health of the market in a way few other statistics can. In a year where real estate agents are getting out of the business in droves, these statistics place a new way to look at the market.

Don’t Know How

The reason why agents are getting out of the business is because they don’t know how to sell in a shifting market. It feels like home sales fell off a cliff, especially in the 4th quarter of 2023 and into 2024. This is exactly why we don’t go by how the market feels, but rather what it is.

Third Best Dollar Volume

The dollar volume of the market measures both the number of home sales and prices. When you multiply the number of sales by the averages sales price you get the total dollar volume. You could just add up all the single-family home sales in Lee County and you’d get the same number.

Third Best Dollar Volume Year on Record

Prices could go up with home sales going down and you could get a higher or lower total dollar volume depending on how much in each category the numbers changed. Last year we saw prices falling and home sales dropping, so we knew the dollar volume was going to drop in 2023.

What seems like disaster to many real estate agents really isn’t. 2023 was the third best dollar volume year on record in Lee County, it just doesn’t feel that way because sales are slowing, and prices have fallen.

Feelings

Maybe agents don’t care about actual statistics. If feelings are all we’re going after, all we’d have to do is track the direction of the market. Are home sales going up or down each month? Did prices rise or fall last month? The problem with that line of thinking is we have seasonal months, and measuring one month against the last doesn’t tell the whole story. It also gives you no clue about where the market is or where it may be headed. When you get down to feelings, even that isn’t so accurate. One agent could have a good month compared to a similar agent who just had a bad month of sales. One would say the market is on fire while the next would say the market stinks.

This is why we track. We take the feelings out of it. The market is exactly what it is, and we don’t need to put a spin on it. If we want to change something, it might be how we market properties in a shifting market.

Seasoned agents know how to sell a home in shifting markets. It may not be easy, and it may take more time and counseling buyers and sellers, but it can be done, if the agent knows how to do it.

Listing a Home Today

If you’re listing a home today, it pays to hire an agent with experience. 85% of the agents in business today have not worked through a shift like this. I get a kick out of sellers interviewing 4 agents for the job of selling their home. It’s never a bad idea to interview more than one. What is important is that you interview those with experience. Your questions should be focused on what will the agent do that’s different to market my home? Questions today should not be focused on who will list it for the least commission, or at your preferred price. That’s not going to sell your home in today’s market. Those days are gone! You need a Realtor who knows how to sell in today’s market and will spend the extra marketing dollars to reach a broader audience.

Buyers are less motivated than they were two years ago, so you must spend more to reach enough motivated buyers.

If you have a home to sell, Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 or 239-540-9070 at our Cape Coral office. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant free online estimate of your home’s value.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

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Lee County Year End 2023 Sales Prices

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Lee County year end 2023 median sales prices fell 2.3%. The year end sales price is the average of the entire year, so it doesn’t necessarily mean December 2023 sales price.

Lee County Year End 2023 Sales Prices

For instance, the median sales price in Lee County for December 2023 was $399,000. That was a 2.2% decrease from 2022 numbers of $407,950. The average sales price fell .9% in December and 1.4% for the year.

Prices Peaked

As you can see from the graph, Lee County year end home prices peaked in 2022. The median topped out in April 2022 while the average topped out in May. Since mid-2022 we have watched a steady decline in prices. The median sales price in April 2022 was $470,000 compared to $399,000 in December 2023. The average sales price in May 2022 was $658,886 compared to $539,765. Of course, some of that is seasonal.

Since the seasonal peak in 2022 we have seen a median price decline of $71,000 and an average decline of $119,121. Many sellers did not realize prices were declining, but News Press readers did because we report it each month.

Today we believe most homeowners realize prices have declined as inventory has risen. Selling a home today requires marketing muscle and experience in selling in a shifting market. Many agents are getting out of the business. Nationally 48% of agents did not do a deal in the 2nd half of 2022.

Locally, 85% of the agents have not been in the business for more than 6 years. This means most have never worked through a shift like we are seeing today, and they don’t know what to do. It is incumbent on agents with less than 10 years’ experience either join a team or join a brokerage with tremendous training.

Lead Flow

Most agents complain they do not have lead flow currently. Not only are buyers harder to close, they are fewer and farther between. Sure, there are many interested lookers, but many lack motivation to act with prices high and interest rates higher. With the total cost of ownership at high levels, buyers have been on the sidelines.

To be successful in real estate requires tremendous sales skills, and lead flow. Lead flow is expensive, and many newer agents do not have the budget to acquire leads. Because leads are converting at less rate due to less motivation, conversion becomes more critical.

Conversion

Where do agents learn how to convert? They can learn from mentors like us who have been in business through many cycles and shifts. Additionally, some brokerages focus on training, while others cater to more experienced agents. If you are an agent struggling to hold on, Give Sande or Brett a call at 239-489-4042 and we will be glad to offer some resources for you.

Sellers

If you have a home to sell, or previously tried to sell it and it expired, give us a call. 239-310-6500 Perhaps it failed to sell because of pricing. Maybe the price was fine and it wasn’t marketed heavily. Perhaps your Realtor had a side job and couldn’t devote 100% of their time to selling your home. Whatever the reason, we can take a fresh look at it and make some recommendations. Brett and Sande have sold over 5,000 homes in Lee County over the years. We’ve worked in the best of times and excelled in tough times when agents were getting out. The reason is, we never stop marketing, and nobody outworks us.

Call us to put our marketing muscles, know how, and hard work to work for you. You’ll wonder why you didn’t call us the first time. But that’s OK, we enjoy making a difference for people, even if you found us second.

Good luck. We’ll be watching 2024 like a hawk and reporting trends as they occur.

Happy Selling!

Benchmark Pricing Analysis Report

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Pricing a home correctly is key to getting a home sold for top dollar. Time on the market is not your friend when selling your home. Our benchmark pricing analysis report helps clarify if a home is correctly priced by illustrating several key factors. We will focus on a few of those factors now.

Showing Activity

Benchmark Pricing Analysis Report

The Benchmark pricing analysis report shows the number of scheduled showings on subject property compared to other similar listings in the area. The report compares active and pending listings as well as closed listings. If the subject property is receiving a comparable number of showings, the price must be in the ballpark, or it wouldn’t receive showings.  If the home is receiving more showings than similar listings, all the better. The marketing is working.

Days on Market

Larger number of showings than pending or closed sales could lead to increased days on market. This tells us that while the home is in the ballpark, it is losing out to other listings when buyers decide to offer. A small price reduction could be warranted. The home just doesn’t measure up in value to competing listings. It is getting shown, which means it’s getting its opportunity. The home just isn’t the winner. Placing a home on the market is like entering a beauty contest. You must price it to be the winner. It is tiring to take home 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th place all the time. Eventually you need a win. Making a price adjustment can get your home on the winner’s stand.

Price Reductions

Benchmark Pricing Analysis Report Price Reductions

Another factor the report shows is the price reductions. The report not only shows how many comparable listings have had price reductions, but it also shows you the size of the reductions. Together with your agent you are deciding at what price to bring your home to the market for. That decision will either be spot on or off a bit. The seller determines the list price while the buyers determine the value. If the seller has miscalculated, a price reduction may be in order.

Chasing the Market

The sooner a seller realizes a price adjustment is in order, quick action can save the seller thousands. You never want to get caught chasing the market down. Adjust before the other sellers and get out. A lingering home on the market does the seller no favors. We have studies that show time on the market is detrimental to a seller’s net proceeds we can share with you when we meet.

The Ellis Team sends these reports out to our sellers on a regular basis. Our sellers always have the latest statistical data so they can make the most informed decisions. Setting a price and placing your head in the sand isn’t going to sell a home today, especially when so many sellers are making price adjustments as well.

Buyer or Seller Market

In a buyer’s market, home sellers are in competition with each other trying to find able buyers as there are more sellers than willing buyers. In a seller’s market, home buyers are in competition with each other over the best listings.

Winning Formula

The winning formula in today’s market is aggressive marketing, proper pricing, and communication. The Ellis Team has a system to communicate with our sellers. Nobody markets a home like the Ellis Team. Together as a team we help you price your home for success. Then we market it and communicate with you. If we are generating showings but no offers, together we’ll tackle the market and guide you through to the finish line. There is a reason the Ellis Team has helped over 5,000 families sell their homes. Sande and Brett have been through market shifts, and we never stop marketing and communicating.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty to get your home sold fast, and for Top Dollar, 239-310-6500 You plus us makes a winning team! Search the MLS at LeeCountyOnline.com

Market Activity Showing Reports Helpful

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The Ellis Team analyzes market activity showing reports to determine buyer sentiment. This market report is for all listings using this service, not just our listings.

Market Activity Showing Reports

Realtors, have you ever had a listing that wasn’t receiving many showings? Did you wonder if market activity had suddenly slowed down, or whether it was just your listing? Realtors have the ability to track other listings showing activity and see how it relates to your listing.

If your listing isn’t receiving any showings but other listings are, perhaps it is the price. When a listing is overpriced, the market rejects it and showings fall off. It could also be the photos, the language in the MLS, or the data that was entered. We’ve uncovered so many unchecked or unspecified fields in MLS that would prohibit other Realtors from searching for a property and returning a match. When showing activity is down, you do not want to miss any.

Market Activity Showing Reports

The market activity showing reports allows us to search by city, zip code, neighborhood, bedrooms, price range, and more. For instance, let’s say I have a 5-bedroom home listed and it’s getting 1 showing per week. I might want to know if that’s good or normal. It stands to reason the 5-bedroom homes might receive less showings than 3-bedroom homes, so lumping all the data together doesn’t draw a true comparison.

Pending Sales

Pending sales picked up in the last week. As we head into mid-January you would expect that they would. Pending sales are a barometer of potential future closings. This is why we track pending sales so strongly. What if there was a barometer for pending sales? We think there is. Obviously, you do not have pending sales without showings. Showings lead to pendings.

Pricing Benchmark Reports

The Ellis Team also has access to pricing benchmark reports. Perhaps we’ll do a future article on this. A pricing benchmark report compares the showings of our listings versus the competition. It also calculates the absorption rate to determine how long a property should take to sell versus the availability in the market. Additionally, our report shows your listing relative to your competition, so you can see if your home is priced correctly. The report will also give us price reduction data, so we know what other homeowners are doing and what percentage they are dropping their price.

Rear View Mirror

When you bring a home to market a Realtor typically looks at past sales. However, using past sales is like looking in the rear-view mirror. It tells you where the market has been, but it doesn’t always tell you where the market is going. The pricing benchmark reports and careful study of the showing patterns of competing listings, combined with up to the moment market data puts our sellers in a position to make better decisions.

When the market is on the move, you want to know about it before other sellers. Sellers whose home expired and failed to sell are astounded when they see the data. The reason most sellers overprice their home is because they lack data. The Realtor may be short on listings, so they don’t want to risk telling the seller what they need to hear in fear of losing the listing. When a seller shops for a Realtor, be careful not to select the Realtor who offers the highest price.

Highest Price

The Realtor doesn’t really offer anything. The buyer offers. If your price is too high, all you did was give your listing to a Realtor. Select the best Realtor based upon their track record, knowledge and experience. If you select the best Realtor, you’ll get the price right. And if the price isn’t right, the best Realtor will guide you on how to adjust. You want to sell your home for the most money. Partner with a great Realtor so your home doesn’t sit on the market and collect dust while your neighbors sell their home. Studies show, the longer your home sits on the market, the less price you will get in the end.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant online price.

2024 Housing Inventory Supply

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We thought you’d like to see the 2024 housing inventory supply numbers as we start off the new year. Everybody asks, are we in a buyer’s or seller’s market. This data gives us our answer.

2024 Housing Inventory Supply

Buyers Market?

A seller’s market is anything less than 5.5 months and a buyer’s market is anything over 5.5 months. Currently the Lee County single family 2024 housing inventory supply stands at 5.05 months supply, which keeps us in a seller’s market.

It might feel like a buyer’s market only because of the change we’ve seen in 2023. Back in October we reported a 4.19-month supply, and in July 2023 it was 3.81. In February 2023 it was 2.81. As you can see, the market moved steadily towards a balanced market in 2023 where neither the buyer nor seller had the upper hand.

A few points to remember. I pulled this data January 2nd. Typically, I wait 10-15 days for all the end of the month sales to come in. By MLS rules they are supposed to be entered within a few days, but I allow for more time. Secondly, there were 282 expired single family home listings in Lee County from Dec 31-Jan 2nd. Many of these homes will be relisted and added to the inventory totals, which will tilt closer to the balanced market or seller’s market should that occur.

Buyer Activity Increase

We have seen an uptick in showing activity the week after Christmas. This often happens, but it did not last year, for obvious reasons. The fact that mortgage rates have declined, and people are visiting SW Florida again, causes us to be optimistic. We expect interest rates to decline slightly in 2024 and more into 2025.

An uptick in pending sales may offset the expired listings that may re-enter the market in the coming days. Currently we are tracking about 902 closed sales in December compared to 955 in 2022. As we mentioned, all sales may not be entered yet. Either way, we are expecting a decline in year over year sales in December which was par for the course in 2023. We’ve been tracking 2018 closed sales levels closely since May, and in 2018 we closed 901 single family home sales. We feel pretty confident in these preliminary numbers.

December Sales Numbers

Preliminary sales numbers suggest a December median sales price of $400,000 which would be down from December 2022. All signs point to declining home sales and declining home prices for December 2023.

Just because home prices might be down in December doesn’t mean they will stay there. In 2023 interest rates were rising. Recently rates began declining, which could stabilize the market, or infuse fuel to the market in 2024. We do not expect large interest rate swings in 2024. What we do not know is how many sellers will decide to sell in 2024. We saw a steady rise in sellers in 2023, and we anticipate a rise in buyers in 2024. The answer to both ends of that equation will answer for us where this market goes.

In the coming month or so we will finalize where our market ended in 2023, and that is important to track. What it does not tell us is where the market will go in 2024. We believe this will become apparent in the next 8-10 weeks. As always, the Ellis Team will keep you updated.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking about selling, give us a call today. 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande Ellis would love to talk to you about the market, your neighborhood, and what options you have. The most common questions we get are what could we sell the house for now in its present condition and what could we get if we made some improvements? The other is when is the best time to sell? We can help answer those questions.

If you’re just curious about your home’s value, you can get an instant online value now at www.SWFLhomevalues.com.

Happy New Year! Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty with your real estate questions. 239-489-4042

See last week’s article “Property Best Buy List”

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

8815 Oakshade Cir    $325,000

Ellis Team Open House January 6th
Open House Saturday 12-3 PM Whiskey Creek

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

4431 Bay Beach Ln Unit 544     $525,000

Fort Myers Beach Ellis Team Open House
Open House Fort Myers Beach Saturday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

14386 Reflection Lakes Dr    $400,000

Reflection Lakes Ellis Team Open House
Reflection Lakes Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

 

 

Property Best Buy List

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Welcome to the Ellis Team property best buy list for SW Florida real estate. The Ellis Team has been a leader in SW Florida real estate sales for over 35 years and knows a good deal when they see one. We’ve sold over 5,000 homes locally in SW Florida.

Property Best Buy List

 

Property Best Buy List Qualifications

 It wouldn’t be a property best buy list if any property could make the list. To qualify to be on the Ellis Team property best buy list a property must be deemed a best buy by one of our associates.  Several criteria are used to earn this designation. We look for outstanding value and features. A home may be the least expensive home in a neighborhood but doesn’t necessarily have to be. A home could offer an unbelievable number of features compared to nearby homes or be located on a lot that cannot be duplicated and therefore exemplifies value by its unique nature and price.

Best buy properties would be properties that either our team has showed or previewed for specific clients or properties that score well on paper. This does not mean that our team has inspected the property or warrants the value in any way. There could be many factors including condition, title, permitting, etc. that we wouldn’t be aware of unless a buyer completed the home investigation process. On paper, or at first glance, we’ve identified properties that appear to be of great value and warrant further investigation.

Who Gets the Best Buy Property List?

Nobody gets the entire list. This list is developed internally by Ellis Team members and is meant to assist buyers utilizing our services. We listen to a buyer’s needs and select homes from MLS and our internal list that meets those needs. There wouldn’t be a reason to give access to the entire list because it would not meet every buyer’s needs and would have properties in all price ranges.

What Types of Property Makes the Best Buy Property List?

We have vacant land, single family homes, condos, and residential income properties that qualify to make the list. If we have absences in a category, it simply means we haven’t identified a best buy for that category today. It’s possible we just took some off the list because they recently closed or went pending. New properties could enter the market tomorrow, or an existing property could make a significant price reduction that it now qualifies to go on our list.

When a property is overpriced, it is invisible to buyers most likely to buy that property. When a price reduction occurs, the property becomes visible to more buyers, and in some cases, could be deemed a best buy.

If your home is on the market with another Realtor, don’t call us to see if your home is on the list. Your home may be a best buy, but the list is for Ellis Team clients, and we will not share if your home made the list or not.

What the List Is Not

Our list is not comprehensive. We have not been to every property, and we have not studied every property in SW Florida. We are constantly scanning for new opportunities.  Our list are properties that meet our criteria and properties we have shown or noticed through searches. We may compare these properties to similar nearby properties and/or utilize computerized valuation models. Either way, our internal list is a model that suggests a property might be worth checking out.

Buyers

If you’re interested in purchasing a home for a good value, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com. You can register and one of our buyer specialists can listen to your wants and help you find a best buy.  Or you can search on your own for Free.

Sellers

You can go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com and get your home’s online value for Free. We have additional valuation models for your home as well that we can email you. All you have to do is ask.

The Ellis Team is active in the market and shows or views homes practically every day. We know the market, and if you’re looking for a Best Buy, we can help you learn the market too.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!