Southwest Florida home prices remain steady for the last 12 months. The median home prices in July of 2022 were $420,000. This year it was $417,000, for a drop of $3,000. The average home price last year was $550.845. This year the average was $585,866, for a $35,000+ gain.
As you can see by the chart, the averages tend to be more volatile, so the median price is the one most quoted by economists. Median home prices throughout the year have been bouncing around between $400,000, and $447,500. That’s roughly a 10% swing, but of course there is some seasonality to the market. Year over year the median price is down .7% in July. Fort his reason, we would say home prices remain steady.
Interest Rates Rising
Given that interest rates have risen at their fastest rise in history, home prices have held up pretty well. This is a function of people moving to Florida and money that has been floating around in the economy. Everyone always asks, where are home prices going from here?
Excess money in the economy is burning off. Consumer savings is down, and consumer debt is increasing, which is a sign that inflation and high interest rates have taken their toll. We may be getting close to the point where consumers slow down spending en masse. When this happens it invariably leads to a slowing economy, and job loss. Currently unemployment is at 3.6%, but that could rise once the slowdown begins.
Once student loans become payable in October excess money in the economy may not be available for spending. Additionally, about $1.5 trillion dollars of commercial debt is coming due by the end of 2025. Companies will be forced to make difficult decisions. With credit costing 2-3 times what it did before, many companies may decide to close, default, or close locations and sell. These decisions may occur in 2024 because the lead-time for refinance takes a while.
Lending
Banks are not as apt to lend anymore either, so some companies who decide to refinance their loans may not be able to.
For these reasons, we believe the Fed should halt further interest rate increases. It takes time for these rate increases to have their effect, and the damage may already be done. Sometimes it’s wiser to let the pot simmer for awhile before turning up the heat further.
The Fed is known for over-shooting their target. If they keep raising rates, they may very well do so again. Of course, our government is not making their job easier either. We keep spending, and as long as we do that, it means the Fed has to tighten monetary policy. If we could slow down spending, they wouldn’t have to tighten as much. But that’s another story for another day.
Bottom Line
Florida is still a desirable place to live. We have no state income tax, lower property tax rates than many areas, and good weather, for the most part. This article is written before Tropical Storm Idalia makes her full presence known, so hopefully Lee County fares well.
Nobody knows for sure what will happen with home prices. All we know is rising interest rates, insurance, and HOA/condo fees are not helping buyers spend more. That is money that could have gone into seller’s pockets, but now is going to total cost of ownership. Hopefully insurance reform will help lower the cost of insurance, and we won’t see many more storms.
If you have a property to sell, always call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com If you’d like to purchase, call the Ellis Team at 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com
Good luck and have a Happy Labor Day Weekend!
See last week’s article “SW Florida Declining Home Sales Not Caused by Low Inventory“