Lee County single family August home sale prices declined 3.9% from last year. Median home prices were also down $5,000 month over month from July as well.
Median home prices peaked this year in April at $425,000 and are down to $390,000 now. Some of that is seasonal. Many agents are complaining that homes sales are down, but actually, new pending sales are up 1.2% over last year. Of course, last year was a small number as interest rates were rising and sales fell off in the second half of the year.
Listing Inventory Gone
Something amazing happened this month. In July there are 8,054 single family homes listed officially on the market in Lee County. This month the number stands at 6,628. We believe there could be a problem with the official numbers because the numbers we track in MLS have actually gone up by 142 homes, not down 1,426 homes.
The official numbers forced the months supply of inventory down to 5.7 months supply, down from 7 months in July. We believe the months supply of inventory is 5.37 months, and that number has not changed much since August when it stood at 5.39 months.
Don’t believe the change in data. Official numbers may be coming into closer alignment to what we track, or they were missing some external MLS data for August.
Closed Sales
Closed sales were up 4.8% over last year. August 2024 sales were 1,225 compared to 1,169 last August.
It is clear home prices are still under pressure. Since the Fed lowered rates by half percent, we have not seen much change in mortgage rates. If anything, they have risen a bit. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the rate the Fed sets but can be influenced by market conditions which cause the Fed to make changes.
Economic Conditions
Economic conditions are still worsening, and this is why the Fed has been able to cut rates. The Fed is hoping to cut rates such that the economy has a soft landing all the while protecting against inflation. The Fed’s hands have been tied because the government has been spending so much money, and raising rates was the only way to tame the labor market in hopes of taming inflation. This is why Real Wages have declined. If the government spent less, we could have lower rates and paychecks would go further because inflation would be in check.
This is not the world we live in today, so don’t expect rates to go back to almost free. Rates could see a 5 in front of it in 2025. If rates get back in the 4’s, that would be about the best we could hope for someday. It really depends on inflation and the strength of the dollar.
Seminars
How will future rate cuts and economic conditions affect the SW Florida real estate market? The Ellis Team plans to host several seminars this Fall which will help homeowners, and homebuyers alike make better decisions based upon market data and facts. Put politics aside and let the data guide your decisions. Watch for info on our Blog at https://blog.topagent.com
You can track your home’s value over time at www.SWFLhomevalues.com each month our site will send you an updated analysis of your property. It’s fun to track them over time.
You can always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We’d love to speak with you and answer your questions one on one, or feel free to attend one of our seminars.
Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!
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