Both housing supply and demand level off in the latest statistics produced by the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.
Last year we saw single family home inventory supply drop from April 25th to May 2nd. Some of that could have been expired listings. In 2024, we are seeing a trend of leveling off. Pending sales have remained remarkably steady since February 20th of this year.
Ellis Team Current Market Index
The current market index stands at 3.05 and has also remained steady. It rose slightly in the last week, but we’ve been watching numbers in the low 3 range since March 12th. The current market index accurately predicts future price appreciation or reductions going forward.
We finally received some good news on the interest rate front which has led to slightly lower rates. The economic news was bad for employment, which is good news for possible rate cuts later this year. It’s the first good news for future interest rate cuts we’ve received. Wall Street went from betting on no cuts this year to a possible rate cut or two by the end of this year. Inflation numbers have not been good and going in the wrong direction, so betting the farm on one payroll report probably doesn’t make sense. But hey, Wall Street likes optimism wherever it can find it.
Housing Supply and Demand Level
If current housing and supply level remains the same or gets better, coupled with lower interest rates, we could see strengthening in the housing market going into 2025. We are not saying price reductions will suddenly stop as there are still more sellers than buyers. We are saying, once the market chooses a direction, those price reductions will begin working their way through the system and eventually the market will level out.
Like a Train
The housing market is like a train. Once it builds momentum, it takes awhile to brake, or change direction, even if market indicators begin to shift. A train has built up residual energy that must be released before it can brake. If economic indicators suddenly became clear, there would still be price reductions until the market cleared excess inventory.
2025
2025 could be a year for real estate recovery. Of course, we do not know if the economy will have a soft or hard landing. That outcome will determine how many people still have a job and how many can purchase. Additionally, we do not know if we will have stagflation, which is persistent higher than welcome inflation coupled with low to no growth. If this happens, we may not see a recovery until later 2025 or 2026.
So much economically is unknown. Because of this, nobody can predict what the stock, bond, and real estate markets will do. We can report only what we see, and the good news is the housing supply and demand level is stable and doing well. We’ll be keeping an eye on future economic data and housing statistics, along with the Ellis Team Current Market Index.
Thinking of Selling?
You should call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 Brett and Sande can guide you on the latest data. We have the most advanced marketing system in the area, and we’d love to show you how it’s different, and why it’s producing results. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s price instantly.
Good luck, and Happy Selling!
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