We thought you’d like to see the 2024 housing inventory supply numbers as we start off the new year. Everybody asks, are we in a buyer’s or seller’s market. This data gives us our answer.
Buyers Market?
A seller’s market is anything less than 5.5 months and a buyer’s market is anything over 5.5 months. Currently the Lee County single family 2024 housing inventory supply stands at 5.05 months supply, which keeps us in a seller’s market.
It might feel like a buyer’s market only because of the change we’ve seen in 2023. Back in October we reported a 4.19-month supply, and in July 2023 it was 3.81. In February 2023 it was 2.81. As you can see, the market moved steadily towards a balanced market in 2023 where neither the buyer nor seller had the upper hand.
A few points to remember. I pulled this data January 2nd. Typically, I wait 10-15 days for all the end of the month sales to come in. By MLS rules they are supposed to be entered within a few days, but I allow for more time. Secondly, there were 282 expired single family home listings in Lee County from Dec 31-Jan 2nd. Many of these homes will be relisted and added to the inventory totals, which will tilt closer to the balanced market or seller’s market should that occur.
Buyer Activity Increase
We have seen an uptick in showing activity the week after Christmas. This often happens, but it did not last year, for obvious reasons. The fact that mortgage rates have declined, and people are visiting SW Florida again, causes us to be optimistic. We expect interest rates to decline slightly in 2024 and more into 2025.
An uptick in pending sales may offset the expired listings that may re-enter the market in the coming days. Currently we are tracking about 902 closed sales in December compared to 955 in 2022. As we mentioned, all sales may not be entered yet. Either way, we are expecting a decline in year over year sales in December which was par for the course in 2023. We’ve been tracking 2018 closed sales levels closely since May, and in 2018 we closed 901 single family home sales. We feel pretty confident in these preliminary numbers.
December Sales Numbers
Preliminary sales numbers suggest a December median sales price of $400,000 which would be down from December 2022. All signs point to declining home sales and declining home prices for December 2023.
Just because home prices might be down in December doesn’t mean they will stay there. In 2023 interest rates were rising. Recently rates began declining, which could stabilize the market, or infuse fuel to the market in 2024. We do not expect large interest rate swings in 2024. What we do not know is how many sellers will decide to sell in 2024. We saw a steady rise in sellers in 2023, and we anticipate a rise in buyers in 2024. The answer to both ends of that equation will answer for us where this market goes.
In the coming month or so we will finalize where our market ended in 2023, and that is important to track. What it does not tell us is where the market will go in 2024. We believe this will become apparent in the next 8-10 weeks. As always, the Ellis Team will keep you updated.
Thinking of Selling?
If you’re thinking about selling, give us a call today. 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande Ellis would love to talk to you about the market, your neighborhood, and what options you have. The most common questions we get are what could we sell the house for now in its present condition and what could we get if we made some improvements? The other is when is the best time to sell? We can help answer those questions.
If you’re just curious about your home’s value, you can get an instant online value now at www.SWFLhomevalues.com.
Happy New Year! Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty with your real estate questions. 239-489-4042
See last week’s article “Property Best Buy List”
Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses
Open House Saturday 12-3 PM
8815 Oakshade Cir $325,000
Open House Saturday 12-3 PM
4431 Bay Beach Ln Unit 544 $525,000
Open House Sunday 12-3 PM
14386 Reflection Lakes Dr $400,000
