Let’s analyze home prices nine months after Hurricane Ian. We did this post Hurricane Charley and Hurricane Irma as well.
Official median home prices last September in Lee County were $414,495. Average home prices were $534,035. Official numbers are not out yet for June, so we went into MLS and extracted data that should be close to actual numbers when they are released.
Home Prices Higher After Ian
Unofficial June 2023 Lee County median price was $449,000. That is an 8.32% gain from September of last year. The average price in Lee County for a single-family home in June was $589,991. That is a 10.48% gain over September last year.
We know that home prices were coming down prior to the hurricane. Rising interest rates surely played a part in that decline. Much like hurricanes Charley and Irma, it doesn’t appear that the hurricane had much influence on home prices. Perhaps the greatest influence was which home sellers decided to sell. While demand has fallen with rising interest rates and insurance costs, it hasn’t gone away. Demand is still there. Sellers must price correctly for sure.
Because there is still demand, we may see lower prices if more lower end homes enter the market, and higher prices if more higher end homes hit the market. Obviously when supply outstrips demand it can lower prices, but through last year inventory was low, and the hurricane didn’t help that.
Rising Inventory
Today we are seeing much more inventory. Single family home inventory has almost quadrupled since February of 2022. If inventory keeps rising, we will be entering a balanced market. If you talk to most real estate agents, they will tell you this market feels like a balanced market.
We don’t have 50 offers for every property, but homes don’t sit forever either, if they are priced and marketed correctly.
We are seeing agents leaving the business. At last count 60,000+ agents nationwide have left, and we are expecting hundreds of thousands more. This happens with every shift in the market. So many agents come into the business and work in one part of the market. There are three different markets and how you consult and transact are completely different in each.
Three Markets
The three markets are a buyer’s market, seller’s market, and a balanced market. Once the market makes a move, it’s very easy to slide through all three, or drift back and forth depending on market conditions. We’ve just gone from a severe seller’s market to a balanced market. Interest rates are on the rise again. Mortgage rates hit their high for the year this past week and may go higher.
The economy is expected to slow down as rising debt is weighing on consumers. Student loan payments begin in October which will take spending money out of the economy.
For Florida we will be watching to see how many people continue moving to our state. As taxes rise in other states and people continue to move out of cities, where will they go? To date, many have chosen Florida which helped push our prices up. With rising prices, interest rates, and insurance costs it remains to be seen how many and how fast they will continue to relocate here.
It is possible a slowing economy might force people to relocate when they lose jobs up north. Others may simply decide to retire. Whatever happens, you know that we will be studying the numbers. Ellis Team clients always know the trends before other home buyers and sellers because we track the market so closely. We have years of data and analytics.
Search Like a Pro
To search the MLS like a real estate pro, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com It has features and data other sites do not have. Of course, Sande and Brett Ellis are here to answer your questions as well. 239-489-4042. Brett and Sande have worked in all three markets multiple times. There is no substitute for experience, hard work, reputation, data, and analytics. That’s what you get when you call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty.