Tag Archives: Lehigh Acres Florida

June SW Florida Real Estate Market Update

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Official housing numbers for May are in and both the median and average sales price are up over 20% over last year.  The results are noteworthy and we expect the market to ride similar margins throughout the year, but the big gain in prices may have subsided for a bit. June SW Florida Real Estate Market Update.

June SW Florida Real Estate Market Update
SW Florida Home Prices

A few months ago we warned that prices were rising steadily however this is a trend we’ve seen repeat over the past several years only to watch the market cap out for the year around April-May.  In several past articles we pointed out that beginning in May we’ll be watching the month over month prices to see how the market is faring in real time.

This month we decided to post a historical price graph dating back to January 2009 illustrating the median single family home in Lee County Florida. Sometimes agents will make predictions based upon gut feelings on what they perceive is going on in the market.  While this gut feeling can be a useful tool, it can also be deceiving.  In the past I’ve spoken with different agents in a given month.  One would be super busy and another would be having a lull, for whatever reasons.  You can just guess which agent was more optimistic and which was more pessimistic that month.

We prefer to make predictions based on facts, data, and logic.  Yes we’ll throw in a feeling from the street if we hear changes in buyer’s or lending activity, but it has to be founded on some mathematical data to be meaningful.  We try to pull out numbers that are meaningful and not just stats, because as you know, anyone can make stats say about anything.

May numbers are in and they’re actually down from April’s numbers.  May’s median price was $176,330 compared to April’s $182,000.  May’s average price was $288,547 compared to April’s $292,201.  If you look at the graph you’ll see this trend has occurred each year beginning about May for the past 3 years.  Back in 2008 we predicted 2009 would be a year of bouncing along the bottom and that’s what it did.  There just wasn’t a lot of price swings.

January of 2011 was the beginning of the breakout in prices.  Listing inventory fell again in May and pending sales are up, so why didn’t prices increase?  The answer is our more expensive properties sell when we have the most affluent buyers here which is in season.  We still have strong sales all year round, but not as many higher end sales.  New pending sales have ranged from 1,465 to 1,485 from March through May.  It’d probably be higher if we had more inventory, but not necessarily the prices.

Remember, all real estate is local.  This means that even though the market may plateau for awhile, there can still be pockets where prices increase.  The whole market doesn’t march in unison.  The low end could be appreciating while the high end is suffering.  We’ve seen instances where prices get a little ahead of themselves in Cape Coral so people started buying in Lehigh because it offered more value.  Sure, Cape Coral off water has always held a premium over Lehigh, but there are limits and we saw those back in the big buildup in 2004 and 2005.

The same can be true with any area.  If waterfront prices shot up instantly in Fort Myers at some point buyers would move over to waterfront in Cape Coral.  Fort Myers may hold a premium, but there is a limit.

Next month will be most interesting to see how the numbers fare.  It really sets us up for the balance of the year if recent history has anything to say.  of course, we all know recent history can be trumped by future news, so we’re also keeping our eye on the bond markets and how that will affect interest rates, the economy, taxes, etc.

Stay tuned.  If you’re in the market to buy, heed the warnings!  Interest rates are on the rise.  Waiting will cost you money.  A month or so ago we posted on our Blog how the Fed’s pullback of QE (Quantitative Easing) may impact the stock market and affect interest rates.  You may want to check out that article (May 23) at Is Stock Market Ready to Make a Move?

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Inside the SW Florida Real Estate Numbers

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Again, we are writing this article before official sales numbers are scheduled to be released later in the week.

Because of that we’ll focus on some new information that won’t be in the release this week. Official stats in January track December sales and year-end stats which are always interesting. This tells an important, but partial story, because it only tells what has happened. Today we’ll focus on what is happening right now.

Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres Listing Inventory
Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres Listing Inventory

Listing inventory had risen slightly for the past 4 months, but it has dropped slightly in January. Pending sales had also been dropping slightly which is probably why inventory was rising. However, pending sales have increased this January which may help account for why inventory recently dropped.

While inventory has dropped everywhere, perhaps the most significant drop has been in Lehigh acres. Lehigh Acres has experienced a 61% drop in inventory since January 2010. Cape Coral has seen a 38.54% drop in inventory in the same period, and Fort Myers has seen a 32.52% drop. Lee County has seen a 35.42% overall drop in single family inventory, so Lehigh Acres 61% drop leads the way by a large margin.

Lehigh Acres was home to single family home sales in the $25,000-$40,000 range a few years ago and now it’s getting tough to find homes much below $70,000. Investors have swooped in and gobbled up everything they can. Homes at the lower prices were cash flowing as investors could purchase, fix them up a little bit and rent them for more return on their money than they could get at bank or other places.

Foreclosure Vs Short Sales SW Florida January 2012
SW Florida Foreclosures Vs Short Sales January 2012

Another trend we have noticed is short sale closing increased as banks have geared up to handle more short sales just as foreclosure sales decreased. We’ve included a graph that illustrates foreclosure versus short sale closings over time. Keep in mind that banks have had fewer foreclosures due to the robo signing issue and that has affected foreclosure inventory throughout 2011. We’ve been told to expect more foreclosures in 2012, however they will not process them as fast as they did back in 2009 which caused the whole robo signing legal fiasco in the first place.

Next week we’ll go inside the official numbers and give additional background as to what drove the numbers and how 2011 ended compared to previous years. Going forward we are seeing a robust selling season as many have realized our median prices have been on the rise and the bargains may be running out. If rising pending sales, rising median sale prices and decreased inventory are any indication heading into season, the next few months could be interesting to watch.

Setting realistic expectations is key for buyers and sellers in this market. Realistically, prices have room to rise especially as the economy improves. Nobody is predicting a return to 2005 prices anytime soon, so if you read prices are rising and you’re waiting 6 months to put your home on the market so you can get what you paid back in 2005, you might want to reset your expectations.

We are back to healthy growth, and if we somehow miraculously escalated back to 2005 prices, it would be as unhealthy now as it was back then. Slow and steady might just be what the doctor ordered, and who knows, that might just be what we’ll get.

 

 

Florida Real Estate Bargains a Victim of Perception

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We’re writing this article this week two days before official numbers are released, so by the time you read this official numbers will have been released. Absent this knowledge, we expect prices in August to be higher than last year and sales to be down from last year, however sales volume may be higher than July.

SW Florida Real Estate Bargains
Year End Median Sale Prices For Single Family Homes SW Florida

We’ve included a chart of average year end sales prices which is really an average of prices for that given year, not the Dec 31 average price. As you can see, prices fell from their peak in 2005 through 2009 where they stabilized and actually rose in 2010. In 2011 we’ve seen more gains over 2010.

We started writing articles and advertising back in 2009 that Florida was on sale and buyers flocked here in droves looking for bargains from all over the world. Buyers have been competing with each other for the best bargains and in fact many of these properties have seen multiple offers. As you can see from the year end chart, prices are still very affordable and are on par with 1996-1997 prices. If you look at the attached chart you’ll notice prices in July were up 14.33% over last year and up 19.1% over 2009 prices.

Median Sale Prices Single Family Homes in SW Florida
SW Florida Real Estate Prices 2009-2011

We are fielding calls from buyers looking for foreclosures, short sales, and otherwise good bargains. They just finished reading on a website or watching an older YouTube video how another buyer bought a $20,000 condo or $30,000 house close to the beach and they want to come here and buy the same thing.

If you ask any agent in this market I’m sure they’d chuckle because they’re answering some of the very same calls. This is where the perception that Florida is on sale, which it is, collides with reality. The days of buying newer homes for $35,000 are over unless the home has serious defective drywall issues or is gutted. We still have some inexpensive condos for sale. For instance we just listed a bank foreclosure 1 bedroom, 1 bath condo in Mystic Gardens for $27,900 which is a bargain. These deals are becoming fewer and farther between.

Unfortunately buyers from all over are calling and expecting homes close to the beach or on the beach for ridiculously low prices. While it is true back in 2009 we had some seriously under-priced homes from some of the banks, prices have gone up considerably since then. We’re still well below replacement cost in most cases and we’re not headed back to 2005 prices anytime soon, however we are still a bargain.

Florida Real Estate Bargains

I guess there is a difference between a bargain and a steal. The steals are over, but there are fantastic bargains and opportunities in this market if you’re realistic. If a buyer is unrealistic, they’ll suffer the same fate as an unrealistic seller, which is no transaction. A buyer who fails to buy in this market is just as damaged as a seller who overprices and misses the top. While the bottom may be behind us, we’re still close enough to it that we can see it in our rear view mirror and prices today will look like a bargain years from now.

Remember back in time when someone you know once said “Gosh, I should have bought every piece of property I could get my hands on back when prices were lower?” Well, in the future I’m sure there will be those that say, “Gosh, I should have bought everything I could back in 2010 and 2011. Those were the days when there was little competition from new home builders, interest rates were at their lowest, prices were below replacement cost, and at those prices they actually cash flowed.”

It pays to be an educated consumer, whether you’re on the buying or selling end. Remember, money is always made on the “Buy”, not the sell. Inventory is going down. If you’re truly a buyer, learn the market and step up now. I bet you’ll be glad you did.

It’s kind of funny how humans follow the herd mentality. When everyone else is buying, people feel more comfortable buying at the top, but when things are down, people are scared of overpaying. Back in 2005 you were overpaying, but most felt good about their purchases. Look what prices have done since. The smart money is buying and holding today. Failure to land a property now is a wasted opportunity.

SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index

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It’s been a few months since we’ve reported numbers for the Current Market Index, so here is the update.  The Fort Myers-Cape Coral area index now stands at 4.02, up slightly from 3.86 in September and 3.81 in August.  The lower the index numbers the better the market for sellers.

This is a result of slightly rising inventory numbers, but very much in line with inventory numbers back in August.  We’ve seen continuous dips in inventory for quite a few months leading up to October, and this is the first month we’ve seen a slight increase.  Pending sales are down ever so slightly as well, however nothing that is statistically significant.

Current Market Index SW Florida Real Estate
Current Market Index SW Florida Real Estate

Existing sales are holding up nicely and still showing healthy gains over last year.  Buyer interest from around the country is strong.  In fact, our team has so many buyer leads coming in that we need to hire 4 more buyer agents to keep up with the activity.  We think season this year is going to be very strong.  Temperatures up north have been unseasonably cold this fall and it’s looking like they could have a long and cold winter.  Traditionally this is always good for the Florida market as snow-birds look for a tropical escape and potential property purchase.

The snow-birds we’ve talked to are already motivated to purchase.  They witnessed first hand that some properties are up about 20% in price over last year as the pickings are getting slim in certain segments.  They realize this season may be the last season to pickup many of these bargain basement priced properties.

We’re seeing waterfront properties in the Cape for example bouncing off their bottom last year for entry level direct access properties.  We’ve also seen a bottom in Cape Coral for entry level homes, especially pool homes.  This has fueled an increase in sales in the Fort Myers and Lehigh Acres market. Fort Myers home sales in September increased by 6 sales. Cape Coral lost 35 sales versus the previous month.  Lehigh Acres gained 7 sales versus September.

As sales potentially shift from the Cape over to Fort Myers and Lehigh Acres, we could see a bottoming in prices there as well.  You’ve heard the term that water seeks it’s own level.  As prices get too high in a given area, buyers shift their focus to other more affordable areas.  Many have preferred to live in Cape Coral over Lehigh Acres, but in the run-up back in the early 2000’s, prices in the Cape got so far ahead of Lehigh Acres that buyers shifted to Lehigh for the value, and thus a boom began in Lehigh.  As foreclosures hit hard, many buyers scooped back into the Cape for the bargains and preferred the Cape over Lehigh all else being equal.  Because we’ve sold many of the Cape foreclosures, the bargains are not there like they used to be, so we’re seeing this shift to wherever the bargains are.

We’re still in a bargain market for the time being, but that could change.  Northerners are starting to fear that the bargains are drying up and they don’t want to miss out, so this season could get very exciting.  It’ll be interesting to watch where the money goes, and what happens when the foreclosure well starts to run dry.  How will that affect the overall market?

Speaking of foreclosures, it appears banks are cranking up the process on a whole new batch of foreclosures.  Some have speculated that banks purposely waited until the end of 4th qtr which ended Sept 30 to file these new lawsuits so their books would look better.  Wall Street has a history of doing this for earnings and results.  A friend of mine has even speculated banks are keeping losses off their books this year to pad their earnings so they can collect bigger bonuses.  There may be some truth to that.

Last year we saw a spike in Lis Pendens filings for precisely the same theory.  We’ll have to watch the November and December filings to get a feeling if this is another Wall St accounting trick of holding back what they can, and thus the October spike, or if this is a long-term trend.  If this is a long-term trend, then it will stall increase in prices.  If this is merely a short-term blip like last year, we could see fewer bargains and more actions from northerners fearful for missing out on one of the best buying opportunities in awhile.

Just like back in 2005, you cannot calculate the absolute top of the market until it’s in your rear view mirror.  Timing the bottom of the market is much the same way, and in fact we’ve seen a bottom already in certain segments.  The entire market doesn’t always move in unison.

Our advice to buyers is simple.  Regardless of whether this is the absolute bottom, we’ve already seen the bottom, or we have a little bit more to go, prices are bargains right now.  You may not want to miss this general time period, because one day soon we may look in the rear view mirror and kick ourselves for missing the buying opportunity of a lifetime.  All the bank’s misery and misfortune can now become your gain.  Somebody is going to capitalize on this misfortune.  Why not you?