Tag Archives: Lee County Florida real estate market

Has the National Real Estate Market Peaked?

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National experts and economists are warning that the national real estate market may have peaked. This past week we attended the Keller Williams Mega Camp and spoke with top agents from all over the country to get their perspective as well.  We’ll attempt to answer that question. “Has the National Real Estate Market Peaked?”

There are many forces that influence how well a market is doing, and in 2018 we’re seeing a new dynamic we’ve never seen before.  Typically markets pull back due to economic factors like unemployment, interest rates, consumer confidence, etc.  This year we’re seeing fewer sales nationwide due to lack of inventory.

Has the National Real Estate market Peaked? Months Supply of Inventory

Inventory is starting to rise again.  So are interest rates which are affecting home affordability.  Prices rose approximately 4-6% nationwide last year, while incomes rose 2-3%.  In a fully indexed market, this isn’t sustainable.  Keller Williams’ leadership mentioned we’re in a supply driven shift, which is unique because usually shifts in the market are determined by other factors we mentioned earlier.

So, the answer lies in what happens first?  As we exit the supply driven stall, what wins out?  Does consumer demand eat up the new inventory, or does interest rate hikes take its toll and dampen the ability of buyers to pay more?

Nobody knows the answer to this, but some experts are predicting lower sales due to a softening in some markets.  Mortgage applications are down 3% last week nationwide and have been down for 4 straight weeks.  Mortgage bankers are noticing a 17% decline in year over year mortgage applications.

The economy is on a roll.  Unemployment is down to 3.9%, and demand for housing has been strong.  We all know real estate is local.  SW Florida can be influenced by other markets, but each market has its own strengths and weaknesses that can buck the national trend.

For instance, while the rest of Florida and the country were enjoying wild gains the past year, SW Florida did not.  This might be good news for SW Florida because if it’s determined later that the national market got a little ahead of itself, we may be insulated from losses as we did not participate in all those gains.  Lee County may have been a leading indicator.

Fundamentally it feels like a strong market nationally.  If it is fully priced, the future depends on affordability and what happens with jobs, income, and interest rates.  Price will move up or down depending on these other variables.

Locally, we’re subject to the same issues, and a few more.  Throw in a possible hurricane, red tide, blue green algae, etc. and you see we have some wild cards.  Personally, it feels like we too have a pretty good real estate market going right now.  And the red tide and algae will soon pass.  Because we didn’t participate in the big run-ups this past year, and because we have outside money that comes into SW Florida each season to invest in our market, we have potential for good times ahead.

The average Joe gets hurt the worst when the market shifts because outsiders price them out of the market.  Locally incomes only rise so much, and yet local buyers must compete with snowbirds and investors to buy the area’s most affordable properties.  It puts a strain on local buyers with limited income.

Regardless of what the national market does, Lee County has some really nice things going for it.  And the negatives that are here today may be gone in a few months.  We just need to see if sellers thinking of selling beat the interest rate hikes.  Those that sell now may be in a favorable position, even if the market only stalls.  It’s more fun to sell in a low inventory market than a neutral market.

Our website www.LeeCountyOnline.com has all the listings, and it’s updated instantly, so finding your SW Florida real estate bargain is a quick search away.  One of our happy Ellis Team agents will be happy to answer your questions.  To sell your home, call the Best Team in SW Florida. 239-489-4042. Ask for Brett or Sande Ellis Ext 4. And we’ll be happy to help you get Top Dollar and close in record time!

August 2018 SW Florida Real Estate Market Update

SW Florida October Real Estate Update

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Last week we showed statistics about the Lee County Florida distressed market and compared today’s numbers to each month dating back to August of 2011.  This week we’d like to illustrate how prices have fared and compare them dating back to 2009 for some perspective.

Sale Prices 2009-2012
SW Florida Median Home Prices

Median prices rose to $127,000 this year versus last August when they were at $103,200.  That’s a healthy 23.06% rise in prices from last year.  As you can see from the graph that shows the last 4 years of data, about this time of year we can have some seasonal price adjustments to the downside before they start heading back up around November.

Prices actually fell slightly from July 2012 to August 2012, down 2.23% from the previous month.  We don’t get too concerned about monthly swings as we like to look at overall trends.  The reason is certain properties may be scheduled to close one month and fall into the next month due to delays by the lender or title.  If 100 properties are delayed it just depends on the mix of properties and their prices as to how it affects the median price for the previous month.

This all works itself out over time.  As you can tell from the long term trend we’re riding high in 2012.  Foreclosure filings are close to the same levels in 2012 as they were in 2011 so it doesn’t look like there is a huge wave of foreclosure heading to the market.

We’ve had much uncertainty in the market due to the upcoming presidential elections as well as the tax increases headed our way in January.  Not only will we have tax increases but we’ll have certain job cuts which will ripple through the economy.  This has created uncertainty and made businesses reluctant to hire until these issues are sorted out.

We may start to see price increases about December, or the hangover from the elections may carry over into Main Street and help keep the status quo for awhile.

Ordinarily you would think we’d be poised for price jumps as inventory is down but we don’t think we’ll see the big price increases until jobs and the economy picks up.  We have several factors in play right now.  The old supply/demand theory is still in play, and we have to add jobs, income, and consumer confidence into the equation as well.

Assuming we get an actual plan to deal with our budget, and that’s a big if, businesses can start planning again.  If new taxes aren’t too onerous hopefully we can get a balanced budget and a plan that allows the economy to add jobs.  If and when this happens real estate is poised to take off in SW Florida.

If this d doesn’t happen real estate should hold its own and have modest gains over time.  Our prices are still pretty low even though they’re higher than the bottom in 2009.

The Ellis Team is selling homes.  We just opened a new Free MLS property search site people may find easier to use at http://www.AllSWFLrealestate.com/ Let us know how you like it.

Watch our October 2012 SW Florida Real Estate Update

 

If you have a home to sell you should talk to us. 239-489-4042. If you’re looking to buy your piece of paradise, let one of our knowledgeable and friendly buyer specialists guide you through the maze.  Give us a call; you’ll be glad you did.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

 

Economics Drive Real Estate Markets Too

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In a typical town in anywhere USA, local, state, and national economics dictate real estate demand and prices.  Sometimes destination locales and tourist areas forget this fact as some places buck national trends and can do well in a recession and poorly in boom times. Economics Drive Real Estate Markets Too.

Economics Drive Real Estate Markets Too
Economic Indicators Week of April 7, 2012

One could argue it all comes down to economics, and one could argue Florida will always have sunshine and retirees, so we’re immune to such things.  I agree that Florida has a lot to offer no matter the economic situation, and I also agree that economics affects us as well.

For instance, rentals are doing very well as many people have been foreclosed upon.  Foreclosures are synonymous with bad economic times, but it goes deeper than that.  People with bad credit are actually helping the rental market, which in turn makes the apartment building worth more.  REIT’s (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and insurance companies tend to buy up apartment buildings, and their value is derived from the income they generate, so as rents go up, so do values.  This can also affect single family homes, especially in the low to mid end.  Upper end homes never rented well enough to support their value, so their value is determined by something else, like appeal, and future price appreciation.

This takes us to national economic factors.  As Realtors in Florida, we all have access to economic data, and it’s important to look at how this data potentially affects real estate values here.  If nobody had a job, it would surely impact housing. All real estate is local, and so is economic data.  Today we are looking at national data, because this data affects real estate economies all over the US.  Other markets affect us here too.  If a snowbird can’t sell their home up North, there’s a chance they can’t or won’t purchase that 2nd home or retirement home in Florida.  If their market is in the dumps, or their 401k, they may be less inclined to invest down here, so even though we are insulated from certain events, we can still be affected.

Unemployment went down nationwide, but so did payrolls.  Many people gave up looking for a job and are not included in the unemployment data.  Of course, we also have the under-employed.  These are people who have given up on finding a job today they are qualified for and have alternatively taken a lesser job just to scrape by and pay some bills until jobs come back.

Average hourly earnings were down.  This can be because less workers are full time and more are part-time.  It could also be because there is pricing pressure and employers have had to cut salaries, or replace higher paying workers with less experienced and lesser paid employees.

Many employers are cutting back on bonuses, benefits, and salaries by furloughing employees in an attempt from laying more off, or shipping jobs overseas.  We are in a global economy, and we must compete, or business will cease to exist here in the US.

Construction spending is down, as is the average workweek.  These are not signs of a revved up economy and definitely a trend we’d like to see reversed. Keep in mind, small changes in numbers equate to big dollars, so it is important we start growing this economy in a sustainable way.  All these parts work together, just like real estate markets do.  We do not live in an economic or real estate bubble.  We are affected, so it’s important we pay attention to what’s going on.

We just finished season, and by all accounts it was very successful.  Many people from up North bought.  Many will come back and buy in the summer or by next year.  People loved their visit here.  We’re entering the summer months, and an election year.  This is the time of year economics matter.  Keep your eye on the news.

Together we’ll be watching to see if Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties can lure some businesses to SW Florida.  We’ll be looking at Florida employment figures, local construction, and housing numbers.  We’ll also be looking at the national scene. We really need about 400,000 new jobs per month to grow the economy.  Anything less than that is dragging our economy, and you can see that in March losing jobs did not help us gain 400,000.

Economic reports are only a point in time.  They go up and unfortunately down.  We’re focusing on trends and not blips.  We’re praying for positive trends.  I think this nation, and particularly SW Florida deserves some good news going forward.

 

SW Florida Real Estate Inside the Numbers

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We’ve been researching and studying the SW Florida real estate market ahead of official releases due out next week, and our preliminary research tells us we expect sales numbers to increase approximately 100% or more over last August sales numbers.  The third quarter of 2009 is setting up to be another record quarter, and keep in mind 2008 numbers were near record numbers to begin with. 

Lee County single family inventory levels are on the decline again and pending sales are remaining strong.  The chart attached shows single family home inventory for Fort Myers and Cape Coral Florida. Listings in Fort Myers and Cape Coral fell by over 100 units as home buyers snapped up more property last month than came to the market. Separately, Lee County levels fell almost 200 units, suggesting buyers are buying faster than sellers and banks are bringing property to the market.

 

Fort Myers Cape Coral Listing Inventory Chart
Fort Myers Cape Coral Listing Inventory Chart

In the last several weeks we’ve addressed who is buying these properties, predominantly first time home buyers and long-term investors seeking to rent them out until the market improves.  At today’s low prices, properties actually cash flow, and we have lots of renters who have been displaced from properties. 

Now for some interesting observations we’re noticing that you won’t see in this chart.  We think home sales will be down about 11% from the previous month, which is normal due to seasonality.  Again, sales should be up about 100% over last year’s August, and last year’s August was down from July as well due to seasonality of the market, so no big surprises here. 

Foreclosure inventory increased 4.14% in the past month and foreclosure sales fell 13.82%  We’ve been saying for the past month or so banks are ramping up foreclosures for the next year and we expect double the write-downs banks will take, although because many of these properties will be in the higher price ranges it doesn’t mean we’ll see a doubling of foreclosure inventory.  Foreclosure inventory and sales will definitely be something we want to keep an eye on going forward and may tell the story of how our market is doing. 

Another trend we’re tracking is short sales to see if banks are cooperating more and agreeing to see short instead of taking back in foreclosure.  Even though total sales are down about 11%, and foreclosure sales are down about 13%, short sales are up about 3.76%.  This would suggest banks are cooperating more and our experience has been this is true; however it is still a very daunting process and not one a homeowner can reasonably attempt on their own.  In fact, it is so daunting that many agents won’t deal with short sales either.  If you’re going to attempt to buy or sell a short sale, make sure you’re dealing with an agent with lots of experience, preferably a CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert.)   

Distressed sales accounted for 70.04% of Lee County home sales in August, up slightly from 68.6% in July.  Distressed sales are here to stay for awhile.  In Fort Myers, 66.45% of the sales were distressed, while in Cape Coral the number is 68.87%  Lehigh Acres has far more distressed sales at 84.27%  County wide, distressed sales percentage remained stable over the previous month. 

Inventory levels fell in Fort Myers, remained fairly constant in Cape Coral, and increased about 2.35% in Lehigh Acres. So what’s the bottom line?  We believe median prices may increase some over time as banks bring higher priced foreclosures to the market.  Banks allowing more short sales may also increase the median sales price, but that doesn’t mean all homes are going up in value.  If this occurs like we think, it simply would mean the bottom has formed in the lower price range, and we’re still seeing erosion in prices in the mid to upper price ranges, and as they become more affordable buyers switch “on” and buy them.  

All real estate is local, and you can’t judge the entire market by a single statistic like median sales price.  This is why we take so much time to really study the market and explain what is really happening with hard facts.  We’ll keep an eye on the distressed end of the market, as these latest trends will offer us signs as to where the market actually is and where it’s headed. 

Until we flush out the distressed properties, normal market assumptions do not apply.  Supply and demand still rules, it’s just that it’s hard to get a grasp on supply without having a thorough understanding of what the banks are doing with foreclosures and short sales.  Until then we’ll keep tracking it for you and reporting the trends.

Ellis Team to Appear on NBC Today Show

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NBC Today Show from Fort Myers Florida real estate market

NBC News called and asked if the Ellis Team could appear on the Today Show Tuesday September 23.  The show will feature Brett Ellis talking about the SW Florida real estate market.  NBC noted that Lee County Florida, particularly Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres has led the nation in foreclosures and is ground zero for the hosuing crisis.  Florida is a battleground state for this year’s presidential election.  The Today Show was in Pennsylvania on Monday and will be live from Tampa and Fort Myers  on Tuesday, specifically from Lehigh Acres.

Also scheduled to appear on the show is  one of the Presidential candidates, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Tampa Bay Star Ronde Barber, and the show will unveil a new NBC News poll focusing on Florida issues.

The Florida segment from Fort Myers should occur in the 7:00-7:30 time slot ET. Brett Ellis is an agent with The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group in Fort Myers Florida.

 

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate June 2008 Current Market Index Improves For a Fifth Straight Month

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The Ellis Team SW Florida real estate Current Market Index improved for the 5th straight month.  The index moved down to 7.23 for the Fort Myers, Cape Coral area.  For the entire Lee County Florida area the Current Market Index fell to 9.21, down from 9.57 the previous month.

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index

Single family listings in Lee County rose to 15,634, up from 15,340 the month prior, but Pending sales increased to 1,697, up from 1,603 in May.  We’ve already predicted May sales numbers should be about 57-60% higher over last year, while average prices should be down about 25% from last year.  We used the mean average and the official numbers use the median average, so there could be some slight variations when numbers are released.

We look at closed sale data in addition to using the Current Market Index to get a direction of where the market is headed.  This index has been so successful in its accuracy that the National Association of Realtors have adopted a similiar but more simple formula to predict the future market called the Pending Home Sales Index.

Next week we’ll report official numbers for May, but suffice it to say that not only will May numbers look stellar but June numbers should also look stellar once the month is completed.