Tag Archives: Ellis Team RE/MAX Realty Group

April 2008 Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index

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The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group just released their monthly SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index and once again the Index has strengthened.  We’ve been reporting for months now the local SW Florida real estate market is firming as the Current Market Index accurately predicts real estate activity into the future.  Because of these numbers, we look for some continued strengthening in closed sales numbers for March and April.  Official March 2008 numbers should be released around April 25, 2008.

We are seeing strength because many of the short sales that were clogging the system have converted to foreclosures and are now being sold by one lender able to make decisions.  A short sale often involves multiple lenders plus a seller, and all have to agree to the sale.  Lenders in second position often don’t agree because there is nothing in it for them to agree, and lenders in first position don’t like to agree to a loss unless the second is completely wiped out.  There are exceptions to this, but we are seeing only about 3% of the short sales actually closing, and just about all of the foreclosures closing in due time.

Median prices have actually been rising, but we’re not focusing on that right now as many of the foreclosures are occuring at the bottom of the market, which could skew the numbers down.  By skewing numbers down, some could interpret that the entire market is coming down further, and that may or may not be true.  Median price doesn’t tell the whole story.  We have pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, and all real estate is local all the way down to the street and neighborhood level.

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.  The lower the CMI Index, the better the market for sellers.  As you can see, buyers are losing some of their leverage now.

April 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,706 1,656 9.48
Condo 8,445 602 14.03

 

March 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,357 1,610 10.16
Condo 8,789 603 14.58

 

February 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,694 1,088 15.34
Condo 8,787 456 19.27

 

January 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,812 821 19.26
Condo 8,581 334 25.69

 

December  17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,098 892 18.05
Condo 8,655 386 22.42

 

November 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,710 797 19.71
Condo 8,361 388 21.55

 

October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20

 

September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06

 

August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64

 

July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91

 

June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06

 

May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44

 

April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

 

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

 

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535

15.60

SW Florida Bank Foreclosure Auction

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SW Florida bank foreclosure auctionLast week we attended a major bank auction in SW Florida.  Over 100 homes were auctioned off.  One investor in attendance said that of the over 100 properties, only 6 were absolute and the rest were subject to investor approval, which if true means most of these will come back on the market

Most of the properties didn’t fetch a very high price, so they may very well not be acceptable to the end investor.  We will attemot to verify this with the bank.  The buyer has to wait up to 15 days to see if the investor on the loan takes the offer from the auction.

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group lists a lot of the properties for this bank, so we may end up listing a good percentage of these listings that do come back on the market.  We did notice a few properties where the buyer overpaid for the home.  These buyers were probably inexperienced and didn’t bring a broker with them  to the auction to advise them they could have bought similiar properties in the same neighborhood for less money.  However, most properties went so far under value that most of the investors may not accept the offers, so many of these winning bidders will be disappointed.

Since the auction the bank has told many buyers and agents to contact us to be first on the list when we get thee properties in.  We get orders for the properties before they go in MLS.  We are identified as the listing agents, but it takes the bank a few weeks to tell us what the price is and authorize us to place it in MLS.  If you’d like to be on the list, give our office a call.  We plan to setup a group list whereby we can notify everyone at once when we get these listings.  They tend to be some very good buys.  For instance, we just listed a newer home in Lehigh Acres for $75,900.  It is an excellent buy.

Expert Says Lee County Real Estate Market Has Bottomed

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Recently WINK TV interviewed the Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group and Denny Grimes & Co. and reported that a local expert says Lee County real estate market has bottomed. We really said we see 2008 as a year where the SW Florida real estate market bounces along the bottom. We did not officially call a bottom to this market, although we are seeing signs of downward pricing pressure abating. 2008 should be a year with some ups and downs but mostly a bump along the bottom, and these ups and downs shouldn’t be confused with a full-blown recovery, nor a full blown pending crash. The market can go both ways along the bottom.

As we’ve said throughout 2007, we cannot officially call a bottom to the SW Florida real estate market until we see a continued pickup in transaction volume, and exisiting home sale inventory declines. Prices have come down substantially, and buyer interest has definitely picked up. Some buyers are moving ahead as inventory is high, negotiating leverage is great, and interest rates have recently come down again. Property insurance rates are on the decline, and so is property taxes, although we believe we will see even greater property tax declines next year.

Stay tuned for a future article on what is happening today and why we see signs of downward pricing pressure easing.

SW Florida Real Estate Update

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SW Florida real estate has on average bottomed out.  That’s not to say there won’t be tough times in isolated areas, but overall prices have steadied for the past three months and buyer activity has really picked up in the last two weeks.

Buyers will look back and say they should have bought in April  or May of 2006 as inventory levels were excellent for the buyers and mortgage rates were at their lowest.  Prices have also come down around $40,000-50,000 since their highs in some market price ranges.

We’ve had pent-up demand from buyers who have been afraid to buy because they thought if they just waited a month or two, prices would be lower in the future, and they would have been correct up until now.  We’ve seen prices level out.  Buyers need re-assurance that it’s OK to buy, and they haven’t had that.  This changed about two weeks ago as buyers started buying again.  When the word gets out to other buyers, they’ll all turn on, like fire ants.  Fire ants seem to bite all at once.  They’re there, everybody knows they’re there, and when the decide to bite everybody will know they’re biting.  The same is true with buyers of real estate.

Fort Myers real estate is rebounding nicely, followed by Cape Coral and Naples.  Naples probably had the furthest to fall as it was the most ahead of itself.  Cape Coral still has loads of inventory, and that will take time to work itself through.

Thye wild card is rising interest rates and rising insurance costs.  If insurance costs goes up $100/mo it reduces the buying power of a buyer by about $16,000.  Rising interest rates, insurance, and property taxes all work the same way, and could limit the price increases we’ll see down the road.

The good news is overall the market has stabilized and is near bottom.  Expect the market to level where it is while buyers eat up inventory, and eventually rise about 5% per year once inventory levels have come down.

Home appreciation could have been in the 7-9% range and may be limited by rising home ownership costs described above.  It’s possible the market will just stay level the rest of the year and not appreciate too much as we work through this inventory.  Buyers should buy now though because rates are expected to rise throughout the year, and waiting may increase the payments.

Just a quarter percent rise in rates costs the buyer several thousands of dolalrs in buying power.  For these reasons, this is why I say that buyers will look back on May 2006 as the best time to have bought real estate in SW Florida

Internet Not Hurting Realtors

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More home buyers today according to a recent study start their search on the Internet before looking anywhere else.  This is good news for Realtors who have a heavy presence on the Internet.

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group in Fort Myers Florida has perhaps the largest and most effective Internet presence in SW Florida.  This actually helps us because we were the first to offer the MLS online.  Other agents were skeptical about putting that data out there.  We knew customers would like to see that data.

Often times it becomes information overload, so buyers need agents as much as they ever have.  Internet sites don’t always tell the whole story either, like what the reputation of the builder is, what schools may be added to the area, road congestion and future plans, airport noise, etc.  All these things affect value, and Internet sites don’t convey all that information. 

What the Internet does do is speed up the process, which is good for buyer, seller, and Realtor alike.  The Realtor’s who fight against the Internet are quickly disappearing and being replaced by progressive agents who understand the importance of traditional advertising models, and the use of efficient advertising models like the Internet.

What hasn’t changed is customer service, responsiveess, and ability to sell being key components to an agents success.  It does no go whatsoever to create leads and not have systems to cultivate and harvest them, and provide the customer a long-term solution to their real estate needs.

Bella Terra

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Bella Terra is being built out by Lennar Homes and Beazer Homes.  Lennar is offering twin townhomes from the mid $300’s, and Manor homes and Exucutive homes from the mid $400’s.  Bella Terra i located in Fort Myers / Estero Florida in beautiful SW Florida.

Call the Ellis Team at 800-860-4042 for more details, or visit our website.  Search all homes in MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com

Rates will Climb and Mortgages will get Longer in 2006

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Rates will Climb and Mortgages will get Longer in 2006. That’s the word from the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.

Many believe 40 year loans will become more popular. This comes as a surprise to many Americans, but in fact in some parts of the world loans are paid off over many generations. Even if rates go up from their current levels, they’re still historically low. What’s making homes unafordable right now is mostly the large run-up in prices over the last three years.

We’ve had tremendous price increases, increasing interest rates, insurance rates, and property taxes. All are pressuring the first-time buyer at once, making homes largely unaffordable for those that missed the big boom. We’ll keep you posted throughout 2006 as to how the market performs.