Tag Archives: Cape Coral Florida

SW Florida October Real Estate Update

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Last week we showed statistics about the Lee County Florida distressed market and compared today’s numbers to each month dating back to August of 2011.  This week we’d like to illustrate how prices have fared and compare them dating back to 2009 for some perspective.

Sale Prices 2009-2012
SW Florida Median Home Prices

Median prices rose to $127,000 this year versus last August when they were at $103,200.  That’s a healthy 23.06% rise in prices from last year.  As you can see from the graph that shows the last 4 years of data, about this time of year we can have some seasonal price adjustments to the downside before they start heading back up around November.

Prices actually fell slightly from July 2012 to August 2012, down 2.23% from the previous month.  We don’t get too concerned about monthly swings as we like to look at overall trends.  The reason is certain properties may be scheduled to close one month and fall into the next month due to delays by the lender or title.  If 100 properties are delayed it just depends on the mix of properties and their prices as to how it affects the median price for the previous month.

This all works itself out over time.  As you can tell from the long term trend we’re riding high in 2012.  Foreclosure filings are close to the same levels in 2012 as they were in 2011 so it doesn’t look like there is a huge wave of foreclosure heading to the market.

We’ve had much uncertainty in the market due to the upcoming presidential elections as well as the tax increases headed our way in January.  Not only will we have tax increases but we’ll have certain job cuts which will ripple through the economy.  This has created uncertainty and made businesses reluctant to hire until these issues are sorted out.

We may start to see price increases about December, or the hangover from the elections may carry over into Main Street and help keep the status quo for awhile.

Ordinarily you would think we’d be poised for price jumps as inventory is down but we don’t think we’ll see the big price increases until jobs and the economy picks up.  We have several factors in play right now.  The old supply/demand theory is still in play, and we have to add jobs, income, and consumer confidence into the equation as well.

Assuming we get an actual plan to deal with our budget, and that’s a big if, businesses can start planning again.  If new taxes aren’t too onerous hopefully we can get a balanced budget and a plan that allows the economy to add jobs.  If and when this happens real estate is poised to take off in SW Florida.

If this d doesn’t happen real estate should hold its own and have modest gains over time.  Our prices are still pretty low even though they’re higher than the bottom in 2009.

The Ellis Team is selling homes.  We just opened a new Free MLS property search site people may find easier to use at http://www.AllSWFLrealestate.com/ Let us know how you like it.

Watch our October 2012 SW Florida Real Estate Update

 

If you have a home to sell you should talk to us. 239-489-4042. If you’re looking to buy your piece of paradise, let one of our knowledgeable and friendly buyer specialists guide you through the maze.  Give us a call; you’ll be glad you did.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

 

Inside the SW Florida Real Estate Numbers

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Again, we are writing this article before official sales numbers are scheduled to be released later in the week.

Because of that we’ll focus on some new information that won’t be in the release this week. Official stats in January track December sales and year-end stats which are always interesting. This tells an important, but partial story, because it only tells what has happened. Today we’ll focus on what is happening right now.

Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres Listing Inventory
Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres Listing Inventory

Listing inventory had risen slightly for the past 4 months, but it has dropped slightly in January. Pending sales had also been dropping slightly which is probably why inventory was rising. However, pending sales have increased this January which may help account for why inventory recently dropped.

While inventory has dropped everywhere, perhaps the most significant drop has been in Lehigh acres. Lehigh Acres has experienced a 61% drop in inventory since January 2010. Cape Coral has seen a 38.54% drop in inventory in the same period, and Fort Myers has seen a 32.52% drop. Lee County has seen a 35.42% overall drop in single family inventory, so Lehigh Acres 61% drop leads the way by a large margin.

Lehigh Acres was home to single family home sales in the $25,000-$40,000 range a few years ago and now it’s getting tough to find homes much below $70,000. Investors have swooped in and gobbled up everything they can. Homes at the lower prices were cash flowing as investors could purchase, fix them up a little bit and rent them for more return on their money than they could get at bank or other places.

Foreclosure Vs Short Sales SW Florida January 2012
SW Florida Foreclosures Vs Short Sales January 2012

Another trend we have noticed is short sale closing increased as banks have geared up to handle more short sales just as foreclosure sales decreased. We’ve included a graph that illustrates foreclosure versus short sale closings over time. Keep in mind that banks have had fewer foreclosures due to the robo signing issue and that has affected foreclosure inventory throughout 2011. We’ve been told to expect more foreclosures in 2012, however they will not process them as fast as they did back in 2009 which caused the whole robo signing legal fiasco in the first place.

Next week we’ll go inside the official numbers and give additional background as to what drove the numbers and how 2011 ended compared to previous years. Going forward we are seeing a robust selling season as many have realized our median prices have been on the rise and the bargains may be running out. If rising pending sales, rising median sale prices and decreased inventory are any indication heading into season, the next few months could be interesting to watch.

Setting realistic expectations is key for buyers and sellers in this market. Realistically, prices have room to rise especially as the economy improves. Nobody is predicting a return to 2005 prices anytime soon, so if you read prices are rising and you’re waiting 6 months to put your home on the market so you can get what you paid back in 2005, you might want to reset your expectations.

We are back to healthy growth, and if we somehow miraculously escalated back to 2005 prices, it would be as unhealthy now as it was back then. Slow and steady might just be what the doctor ordered, and who knows, that might just be what we’ll get.

 

 

Florida Real Estate Bargains a Victim of Perception

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We’re writing this article this week two days before official numbers are released, so by the time you read this official numbers will have been released. Absent this knowledge, we expect prices in August to be higher than last year and sales to be down from last year, however sales volume may be higher than July.

SW Florida Real Estate Bargains
Year End Median Sale Prices For Single Family Homes SW Florida

We’ve included a chart of average year end sales prices which is really an average of prices for that given year, not the Dec 31 average price. As you can see, prices fell from their peak in 2005 through 2009 where they stabilized and actually rose in 2010. In 2011 we’ve seen more gains over 2010.

We started writing articles and advertising back in 2009 that Florida was on sale and buyers flocked here in droves looking for bargains from all over the world. Buyers have been competing with each other for the best bargains and in fact many of these properties have seen multiple offers. As you can see from the year end chart, prices are still very affordable and are on par with 1996-1997 prices. If you look at the attached chart you’ll notice prices in July were up 14.33% over last year and up 19.1% over 2009 prices.

Median Sale Prices Single Family Homes in SW Florida
SW Florida Real Estate Prices 2009-2011

We are fielding calls from buyers looking for foreclosures, short sales, and otherwise good bargains. They just finished reading on a website or watching an older YouTube video how another buyer bought a $20,000 condo or $30,000 house close to the beach and they want to come here and buy the same thing.

If you ask any agent in this market I’m sure they’d chuckle because they’re answering some of the very same calls. This is where the perception that Florida is on sale, which it is, collides with reality. The days of buying newer homes for $35,000 are over unless the home has serious defective drywall issues or is gutted. We still have some inexpensive condos for sale. For instance we just listed a bank foreclosure 1 bedroom, 1 bath condo in Mystic Gardens for $27,900 which is a bargain. These deals are becoming fewer and farther between.

Unfortunately buyers from all over are calling and expecting homes close to the beach or on the beach for ridiculously low prices. While it is true back in 2009 we had some seriously under-priced homes from some of the banks, prices have gone up considerably since then. We’re still well below replacement cost in most cases and we’re not headed back to 2005 prices anytime soon, however we are still a bargain.

Florida Real Estate Bargains

I guess there is a difference between a bargain and a steal. The steals are over, but there are fantastic bargains and opportunities in this market if you’re realistic. If a buyer is unrealistic, they’ll suffer the same fate as an unrealistic seller, which is no transaction. A buyer who fails to buy in this market is just as damaged as a seller who overprices and misses the top. While the bottom may be behind us, we’re still close enough to it that we can see it in our rear view mirror and prices today will look like a bargain years from now.

Remember back in time when someone you know once said “Gosh, I should have bought every piece of property I could get my hands on back when prices were lower?” Well, in the future I’m sure there will be those that say, “Gosh, I should have bought everything I could back in 2010 and 2011. Those were the days when there was little competition from new home builders, interest rates were at their lowest, prices were below replacement cost, and at those prices they actually cash flowed.”

It pays to be an educated consumer, whether you’re on the buying or selling end. Remember, money is always made on the “Buy”, not the sell. Inventory is going down. If you’re truly a buyer, learn the market and step up now. I bet you’ll be glad you did.

It’s kind of funny how humans follow the herd mentality. When everyone else is buying, people feel more comfortable buying at the top, but when things are down, people are scared of overpaying. Back in 2005 you were overpaying, but most felt good about their purchases. Look what prices have done since. The smart money is buying and holding today. Failure to land a property now is a wasted opportunity.

Future of Real Estate Video Show SW Florida Goes High Defintion

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We recently experimented with shooting our TV show in High Def.  Previously we’ve used a mixing board much like a TV studio whereby we can mix camera shots, video graphics, etc, but it was standard definition TV.  Because we have a high definition TV we use anyway, and we shoot the show with High Def cameras, we though it would be nice to make everything more clear and understandable.

Future of Real Estate Video Show SW Florida Goes High Defintion
SW Florida Real Estate Market Update Video September 2010

Future of Real Estate Video Show SW Florida Goes High Defintion

Instead of having one track mixed in from a mixing board along with audio, we’ve gone to mixing each camera track and audio track and syncronizing them.  The reason I spell all this out is because agents all over the country have asked how we produce our show, and now that we’re making the change I thought I’d spell it out.  We then mix all the tracks together and produce one output and export.

Next week we’ll work on shooting the video so everything is in screen properly, or we’ll add another camera.  Let us know if you like the new changes.  View the latest show SW Florida Real Estate Market Update This week’s show covers pending home sales in Cape Coral Florida, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Estero, and Lehigh Acres.  We also cover inventory levels in Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and all of Lee County as we’ve seen varying reports of inventory levels reported lately.