Tag Archives: 7 day market watch

Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels

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SW Florida housing demand strengthens to July 12, 2022 levels. Back in July we had 1,858 total pending sales compared to 1,840 today. The difference is back then we only had 2,863 single family homes on the market compared to 3,366 this week.

Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels Supply-Demand Chart

Additionally, more homes tend to go pending in season, so we cannot say the market is back to last year’s blowout numbers. What we can say is increased pending sales are an encouraging sign. The market is not dead. We still have a robust market if homes are priced appropriately.

Current Market Index

Today we have an Ellis Team Current Market Index of 1.829. Back in July, we had 1.541, so the market isn’t as robust moving forward as 6 months ago.  However, the index is down 5 consecutive weeks which means the market has been picking up.

If you’ll recall, the Ellis Team Current Market Index has been instrumental in predicting forward direction of the market. Our proprietary algorithm tracks key market indicators and gives us a better read on the current market and possible future changes to the market. Because of the index we’re not surprised that housing demand strengthens to July 2022 levels.

7-Day Market Watch

 The 7-day Market Watch from MLS confirms buyers are back. Single family pending sales outpaced new listings, so buyers have responded. Sellers have responded too because we saw more price reductions than new listings, This is evidence the market is rebalancing itself. We believe official sales for January will show price increases over last year, so the market held on to some gains from last year. The market will have to pick up even more to match prices going into April, but that usually happens as we go through season.

Housing Demand Strengthens to July 2022 Levels

We like the upward trend the market is showing us. Interest rates are down about 1% from their highs and buyers are responding. It could very well be that interest rates may drive the future direction of the market.

Some are anticipating long term rates could still decline even if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. Gas prices have been on the rise again, and many are predicting the economy to cool off. Earnings season has begun for corporations, and so far, earnings have been a disappointment. The stock market can’t decide if it wants it take off on hints the Fed may stop raising soon or pull back due to lower earnings forecasts.

Trading Range

 Both the stock market and the real estate market could be in a trading range. Until the economy and interest rates show their cards, the price of stocks and real estate may hold steady. A breakout may occur once solid information shows up, and that could be latter half of 2023 or 2024.

Home prices have already adjusted downward, and we believe that will show up in the year over year numbers in April or May. From here on out it may be steady as she goes until the market gives us some signs.

Your Home’s Value

 If you’re interested in your home’s value, we have an online tool that values your house it minutes. It’s free, and its fairly accurate, at least as far as computers go. It can be found at www.SWFLhomevalues.com

If you’re thinking of selling, we have a home selling system so good it’s been patented. Our system is designed to get your home sold in 8 days and for Top Dollar. Simply give us a call us 239-310-6500 and Brett or Sande will be glad to show you how it’s different than selling the traditional way.

If you need us, we’re here to help. Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Lee County Summer Real Estate Sales Are Heating Up

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Like clockwork Lee County summer real estate sales are heating up.  So why aren’t Lee County home sellers jumping for joy?  Many home sellers are happy, because their home was on the market all season and now it’s selling.  Others are happy because their home just sold while their neighbor’s home sits on the market.

This past season we saw many sellers priced at one point while the buyer’s perception of value was at another.  In many cases, the seller’s perception exceeded the buyer’s perception by 10% or more.  Sellers didn’t want to accept this reality, so homes sat on the market.  You’ll always have some sellers that refuse to accept today’s market prices, but when you have many, it causes the market to take note and listen.

The market always speaks to us.  It’s up to us if we’re ready to listen.  We’re humans, and we don’t always want to accept change.  For those that accept change and react quicker, the opportunity is the greatest.

Lee County Summer Real Estate Sales Are Heating Up 7 Day Market Watch

Right now, home sales are brisk $300,000 and below.  This makes sense because that’s where the bulk of the buyers are.  That’s what more people can afford. We just pulled up the 7-day market watch from MLS, and we notice there more pending sales (379) than new listings (365).  You’ll notice too there were more price reductions (385) than either.  These price reductions are leading to more pending sales as sellers get their home down to where the buyers are.

Selling a home is kind of like fishing.  If you place your bait 20 ft above where the fish are, you get nothing.  Lowering the bait 10 ft above where the fish are still yields nothing.  Fish tend to swim in schools.  You’ve got to place the bait where the fish are, not where you want them to be.  Pricing a home is the same.

If you price your home above where the buyers are, they don’t even look at it.  Typically, you should expect an offer with every 4-5 showings.  If you’re not getting offers, your home is probably still overpriced.  Sellers say, “We just reduced our price $10,000” so that can’t be it.  It can.  If you were $30,000 overpriced, that $10,000 reduction still places you 20 ft above the fish.  Until you get down where the fish are, you’ll attract few showings and little to no offers.

Lee County Summer Real Estate Sales 7 Day Market AveragesAre Heating Up

Of the 379 new pending sales, the median price was $249,000.  The average price was $335,540.  This confirms the $300,000 range and below as being the sought-after part of the market.  If you have a home $400,000 or more on the market right now, you’re probably still fishing for the correct asking price.  You may be wondering why buyers just are not accepting your price.  Your neighbor’s home may be sitting on the market too.  Occasionally one will sell, and you’ll be wondering what they did to attract that buyer.

It takes aggressive marketing.  Aggressive marketing alone won’t work.  Together with your agent, you’ll need to adjust that bait until you find where the fish are.  When you do, it will sell.  The SW Florida real estate market isn’t suffering from a lack of buyers.  The buyers are not aligned with some sellers’ asking prices.  When the seller gets down to where the buyers are, the buyers are biting.  This past week or so the Ellis Team has placed 7 properties under contract.  Some agents believe the summer is the slow time, but that’s a bad assumption.  We have buyers in all price ranges.  We just closed a property over $1 Million.

The agents out there hustling are selling homes.  It’s a great time to sell, so long as you’re willing to price your home at the market. Isn’t that always the case though?  Together with your agent you should ask yourself, “Am I willing to price my home at a price that will cause it to sell?”  If the answer is no, then why are you putting it on the market?

If you’d like to talk to Sande or Brett Ellis about selling your home, call us at 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  Next week we hope to share some exciting news that may make your home stand out and sell faster. Find out what your home is worth online.

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Agents Reporting Lower Sales Counts Across Lee County

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This past week we’ve been speaking with agents who have noticed lower sales counts across the county, which begs the question “Is something happening to the local real estate market?”

June’s official numbers won’t be released until a few days after this article is written, so we decided to look at May’s numbers and combine some current data from MLS and a few large real estate companies in SW Florida.

Agents Reporting Lower Sales Counts Across Lee County
May 2016 SW Florida Housing Numbers

Agents Reporting Lower Sales Counts Across Lee County

If you look at May’s data you’ll notice pending inventory is down 12% from last year. New pending sales are down 6.4% while inventory is up 14.1% This chart lends credence to the fact that the number of sales counts are softening.

At Keller Williams our office tracks Listings Sold Volume. The board was down 13.21% in June while our office was up 25.33% That’s a differential of 38.54% I spoke with 2 large RE/MAX offices and they both said they were up about 38% and 50% respectively. I’m not sure if that was sold volume or units, but either way they’re up.

So why are some offices increasing sales while others are obviously losing sales? The answer can be complicated. Perhaps the office had 1 or 2 large sales skewing the volume numbers. Perhaps they sold a chunk of homes to an investor. Or, perhaps their agents are just more tuned in to what’s going on in the market and making adjustments.

Agents Reporting Lower Sales Counts Across Lee County Market Watch
7 Day Market Watch

I pulled a 7 day Market Watch available through our MLS. Price decreases are outpacing new listings. I was excited to see pending sales outpacing new listings as well, although we know not all pending sales will close. You’ll see some sellers giving up by looking at the terminated, expired, and withdrawn counts.

It can be frustrating to bring a property to market and have little to no showing activity. When this happens it tells you that you’ve overshot the market. If your home is priced at market it should receive showings. If your home is way above the market, it’s not really on the market and is shunned by potential home buyers.

Sometimes the sellers believe the market is at one point and the buyers believe it to be at a lower point. When this stand-off occurs, activity lessens. The sellers that want or need to sell react and make a move to find the buyers. When this occurs, a property will sell.

We recently had a property go under contract. We picked a price and had lots of showings. It was priced close enough to where buyers would look at it, but not make an offer. We reduced it once and got even more showings and one low-ball offer. We reduced it a second time and it sold, for much higher than the low-ball offer.

The home initially was priced right where it should be based upon past sales. However, the market rarely stands still. In that price range we noticed a shift in the market. If this seller would have stayed at yesterday’s prices, the home could still be on the market.

You never want to get caught chasing the market down. You want to get ahead of it. People read that prices are up, and they are up 4.7% in May versus last year. That doesn’t tell the whole story. That is median price, and some price ranges are increasing while some are decreasing.

Knowing where your home fits is crucial. Sure, you can interview 5 agents and pick the one who says the highest price. But have you done yourself any favors? If your home sits on the market and 6 months later you’re shaking your head because it hasn’t sold, are you going to be happy you selected the agent with the highest price?

We’d suggest interviewing agents who know the market, will be brutally honest in regards to price, and markets the home in a way to reach the entire market. If you do that, you will have success. If you don’t, you can find that agent the 2nd time around and hope that prices haven’t declined further. If it was priced right the first time, it should have sold. Keep in mind, just because you overprice it today doesn’t mean the market can’t fall further. If it does, you’ll just be chasing the market down.

See Also Business Observer Article on SW Florida Real Estate Market

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