As we’ve been stating the last several weeks, buyer calls have increased recently and showings have increased.  We believed this was a favorable sign and could lead to a turnaround in Active sales inventory decreasing and Pending sales increasing.  Both occurred this past period.  For the first time all year, inventory decreased and pending sales went up.

The amazing thing is it happened since Thanksgiving and in the first week of December, not traditionally strong showing and selling times.  This could bode well for a strong season as buyers have figured out that home sales are much more affordable this year, interest rates have actually gone down, and sellers have succumb to the fact that they must lower their List Price to get down to where the buyers are.  The sellers that have done that are selling.  The buyers haven’t left the tablem they’re still there, and they’re starting to bite.

Condo sales haven’t changed to the favorable side just yet, however we wouldn’t expect a change until season as condos are more seasonal.

Lee County Florida Current Market Statistics.

  

December 8,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,173	1,078	17.47*
Condo	8,444	543	32.23*

 *We project there will be approximately 9,048 single family closings reported in Lee County MLS, and approximately 3,144 condo sales reported.  Months supply of inventory are based upon these projections. 

November 27,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,186	1,031	17.49*
Condo	8,344	535	31.85*

November 9,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,148	1,046	17.44*
Condo	8,096	534	30.90*

October 18,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,669	1,128	16.80*
Condo	7,834	543	29.90*

 

We decided to study what price ranges in the SW Florida real estate market are hot, and which are not.  Obvioulsy SW Florida is a price sensitive market, so generally speaking the lower the price the better the numbers.

We chose to dsiplay a chart illustrating how many active listings are on the market currently for single family homes in Lee County, as well as the number of pending sales, and closed sales for the last 90 days.  We also created a Closed Index which calculates the number of closings in a price range relative to the number of available listings in that price range.  The lower the number, the better the score.  Highlighted are some of the better numbers in the higher ranges.

Price	A	P	CS-3 Mos	Closed Index
100-149,999	148	25	48	3.08
150-199,999	721	109	197	3.66
200-249,999	2416	278	566	4.27
250-299,999	2390	235	358	6.68
300-349,999	1232	93	174	7.08
350-399,999	1169	66	98	11.93
400-449,999	641	41	66	9.71
450-499,999	759	33	37	20.51
500-549,999	448	25	32	14.00
550-599,999	538	31	34	15.82
600-649,999	310	10	26	11.92
650-699,999	396	16	21	18.86
700-749,999	189	9	14	13.50
750-799,999	248	7	12	20.67
800-849,999	161	6	9	17.89
850-899,999	174	3	7	24.86
900-949,999	63	2	8	7.88
950-999,999	154	5	3	51.33
1 Mil +	918	36	36	25.5

Additionally, we decided to look at the Pending sales now compared to Active listings.  We calculated a special index number for these as well, although not displayed in a chart like above.  Pendings are an indication of what’s selling today, and what may close in the near future.

The $700-750 range is hot in the upper price ranges.  The $850-899 range is not hot currently.

As we’ve stated, the market is showing signs of picking up.  RE/MAX is the dominant residential real estate company in SW Florida, outselling every other company and several of our next closest competitors combined.  As the Premier Market Leaders in SW Florida, we’ve decided to create the RE/MAX showing index whereby we’ll track showing on our listings as a gauge to how the overall market is doing. Stats provided are from the RE/MAX Realty Group office in Fort Myers.

Phone calls lead to showings, showings lead to pendings, pending sales lead to close sales.  We’ve always been able to track market inventory, pending sales, and closed sales.  For the first time we’ll provide data on showings.

While this report won’t include all showings, as some could actually be setup by agent, it does represent a good picture of what showing activity is for the month.

Total Number of Showings November 2006	561
Average Number of Showings Before Selling	6.3
Average number of Showings During 1st Week of Listing	.3
2nd Week of Listing	.4
3rd Week of Listing	.4
4th Week of Listing	.3
5th Week of Listing	.4
6th Week of Listing	.3

Keep in mind that November had a Holiday which limits showings the last week or so of the month.

Total Number of Showings October 2006	599
Average Number of Showings Before Selling	6.5
Average number of Showings During 1st Week of Listing	.5
2nd Week of Listing	.5
3rd Week of Listing	.3
4th Week of Listing	.4
5th Week of Listing	.3
6th Week of Listing	.2

We will post new numbers as they come out each month.  This will be the earliest indicator of what the market may do in the future.

The Florida Association of Realtors released their monthly home sales report, and SW Florida posted a 36% increase in sales of single family homes over last October, 2005.  Numbers for October 2005 may be skewed due to Hurricane Wilma.  One such anomoly is the October 2005 single family median home price which was adjusted to $445,100 last year.  Previously it was reported around $311,000.

The median price of a single family home in Lee County slipped to $249,200 in October, a 4.67% price drop from the previous month of September, 2006.

As you can see from this chart, home sales in SW Florida have leveled off.  Showings have picked up, and buyer calls have really picked up in SW Florida.  For the first time in a long while, inventory levels have topped in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral Geo areas, and Pending Sales have bottomed.  This could be a sign our market has bottomed.  Buyers seem to be aware of this now and are getting back in the buying game.  We believe there is some pent-up demand, and once more buyers discover what’s going on, more buyers may jump in.

Condo sales in Lee County rose 76% to 153 sales.  This is a 155% increase from September 2006 numbers.  Median prices were down to $269,000, and this is why we’re really starting to see sales occur again in SW Florida.

Naples single family home sales are another story.  Fort Myers – Cape Coral sales increased 36%, while Naples dropped 27% down to 204 sales in October 2006 compared to 280 sales in October 2005,  Median home prices dropped 17% in Naples down to $420,000, down from $505,400 in October 2005.

Naples condo sales were down 43% from 266 last year to 152 this year, and median sales prices eased only slighty 6% down to $355,600

The Ellis Team has noticed phone calls picking up, and buyers making offers.  Pending sales have increased in the last two weeks.  We certainly have a buildup of inventory, and this market won’t turn overnight, however we are encouraged by some positive signs in the last month.

Here’s the latest look inside the numbers ahead of the sales report expected to be released tomorrow at 11:05 AM by the Florida Association of Realtors.  Based on latest MLS statistics, inventories have grown in the last few weeks slightly, and pending sales have remained relatively steady.  We’ll post an update tomorrow after the official numbers are released showing median sales price and number of closed transaction for Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples, and the entire SW Florida real estate market as well as the state of Florida.

Lee County Florida Current Market Statistics.

 

November 27,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,186	1,031	17.49*
Condo	8,344	535	31.85*

 *We project there will be approximately 9,048 single family closings reported in Lee County MLS, and approximately 3,144 condo sales reported.  Months supply of inventory are based upon these projections. 

November 9,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,148	1,046	17.44*
Condo	8,096	534	30.90*

October 18,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,669	1,128	16.80*
Condo	7,834	543	29.90*

 

August 23,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,168	1,261	13.10
Condo	7,391	557	14.18

 

 

July 25,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,053	1,343	12.97
Condo	7,387	591	14.17

 

 

May 27, 2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	11,838	1,426	12.74
Condo	7,414	644	14.22

 

Naples Florida real estate sales for both homes and condos were of 50% for the first 9 months of 2006.  Inventory of properties on the market is up 300% to over a 21 months supply.

The Fort Myers Cape Coral real estate market hasn’t fared much better, although sellers have adjusted quicker than Naples sellers.  Both markets will be hit hard.  Fort Myers and Cape Coral has already adjusted.  The end result will be similiar, the time it takes to recover will be different.  Naples market will stay down longer because they’ve been slow to respond,  Fort Myers and Cape Coral is already showing signs of recovery as buyers are coming into the market.

Affordability is up as prices have come down.  When inventory levels start coming down and pending sales start going up we’ll have a more definitive answer, and until this happens we can’t say the worst is over just yet.  We are seeing signs of increased buyer calls, and increased showings, which is a ppositive sign heading into season.

2007 is already starting off much better than 2006 did.

Resale properties are expected to increase at a 1.6% rate in 2006 and a 1.7% rate in 2007.  2006 will be the third highest year on record for number of sales, and 2007 levels are expected to match 2006 levels of about 6.47 million homes.

"We now have the most favorable market for home buyers in several years, and most sellers — who’ve been in their home for a normal period of homeownership — are still seeing very healthy returns on their investment. Conditions for buyers have improved because sellers are flexible now and mortgage interest rates are near historic lows. The market promises to be more balanced between buyers and sellers by early spring, supporting future price growth," according to David Lereah, NAR chief economist.

SW Florida real estate sales climate is expected to improve significantly in 2007.  We are beginning to see the tell tale signs of buyers realizing now is a good time to enter back in the SW Florida real estate market.  We’ll explain those signs in further detail in a future Blog article.

As you can see from the charts below, the SW Florida real estate market continued adding inventory since our last report, and pending sales have fallen again.  This has led to sellers lowering asking prices to attract buyers.

 

 

Lee County Florida Current Market Statistics.

 

November 9,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	13,148	1,046	17.44*
Condo	8,096	534	30.90*

*We project there will be approximately 9,048 single family closings reported in Lee County MLS, and approximately 3,144 condo sales reported.  Months supply of inventory are based upon these projections. 

October 18,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,669	1,128	16.80*
Condo	7,834	543	29.90*

 

August 23,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,168	1,261	13.10
Condo	7,391	557	14.18

 

 

July 25,2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	12,053	1,343	12.97
Condo	7,387	591	14.17

 

 

May 27, 2006	Active	Pending	Months Supply of Inventory
Single Family	11,838	1,426	12.74
Condo	7,414	644	14.22