The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group in Fort Myers, Florida introduces a new way to search for listings inside a subdivision.  Simply by going to www.topagent.com, customers can scroll down to the Neighborhood search section and search from pre-selected neighborhoods.  We will be adding neigborhoods frequently, so check back often.

Additionally, customers can search for specific homes by location, MLS number, size, etc by utilizing our www.Leecountyonline.com  It’s the easiest search tool in SW Florida real estate.

Hank Fishkind says the Florida housing market bottomed months ago and is on a slow road to normalcy.  Fishkind did mention the Miami condo market is still in serious trouble, but that market will not affect the rest of the state.

In SW Florida closed sales have stabilized, and inventory has fallen just a bit.  We’re seeing buyers regain their swagger and are making offers.  The sluggish real estate market in SW Florida is shifting away from buyer’s fear of buying to credit issues.

In the past, buyers were fearful of buying because they were convinced prices would keep falling.  Buyers are more confident now is a good time to buy as prices have dropped dramatically.  What’s different today is that many banks are not lending like they were a few years ago, and it’s causing a credit crunch.  Banks and mortgage brokers have come under increased scrutiny due to the sub prime lending issues of the past.  Now banks are taking greater care to make sure borrowers have income, assets, and documentation to prove the loan.  Banks are also questioning appraisals, and in many cases looking for any reason Not to make the loan.

This has and will cause pressure on the real estate market for the next few years as marginal buyers are now out of the market.  Solid buyers have been waiting for Tax Reform and Insurance Reform.  They’ve partially received both, and may receive even more by the 1st qtr of 2008.

Long-term investors are wading back into the water scooping up bargains from other weary short-term investors and home sellers in trouble.  This is all a sign the market is recovering.  The process will not happen overnight.  We still have over 14,800 single family homes on the market in Lee County.  Building permits have fallen, which is another good sign.  Resales one day will no longer have to compete with builder inventory and high discounting once this backlog is finished and sold.

Builders are pulling out of SW Florida, among many other places.  Builders realize they cannot continue to build and oversupply the market like they did a few years ago.  It’s not in their best interests, as builders are not in the business of losing money.  All this leads to a market recovery.  This recovery will be slow, and we won’t see large price gains like we have in the past.  Not all markets and sub-markets will react in concert, as real estate has proven to be an inefficient market compared to the stock market.  What is certain is that eventually the real estate market reacts, and it all works out in the end.

Governor Charlie Crist announced a new website by the State of Florida designed to save Florida consumers money when shopping for property insurance.

It’s no surprise RE/MAX realty Group leads again in market share in Fort Myers.  The real surprise was the shake-up in who followed RE/MAX this past year.  RE/MAX was a solid #1, followed by Assist 2 Sell, VIP Realty Group, Prudential Florida WCI Realty, Sellstate Achievers Realty, INC., Century 21 Sunbelt, and GMAC Cypress Realty.

The time period was April 1, 2006 – March 31, 2007 Residential Sales and was based on total listings sold.  RE/MAX has always dominated in the SW Florida real estate market, and that’s going to be especially true in a down market going forward.  RE/MAX tends to recruit great agents with lots of experieince, and these agents typically have experience selling in all kinds of markets.

Sande, Mike, and myself just returned from the annual Star Power convention.  While we were away, the National Association of Realtors and the Florida Association of Realtors released market statistics for June.  We also had the opportunity to speak with other top agents from across the world about their market, and some of the ideas they’re using to market in these changing market conditions.

As you can see from the SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed 2005-2007 chart, closed home sales have remained relatively constant, while Southwest Florida inventory levels have dipped only slightly.  Median sale prices have dipped as well, as illustrated by the SW Florida Real Estate Sale Prices 2005-2007 chart.  In fact, median home prices is SW Florida fell 9.80% for single family homes in June.

Here are links to view the entire June 2007 State of Florida Home Sales report and the June 2007 State of Florida Condo Sales report.  Be sure to check out our SW Florida Housing Statistics Page for even more stats and historical data.

Howard Brinton spoke at the conference and said the definition of a seller is those that actually sell.  Unfortunately in this market, not every property on the market is priced properly to actually be considered on the market.  If you’re priced Over the market, you’re not really On the market.  So the question becomes, how many homes are really on the market.  What we can say is that 600 give or take single family homes are on the market each month, because 600 or so are actually selling.  Those 600 sellers are actually pricing their homes where the buyers are, and they don’t need to reduce their price because they’re priced where the market is.

The other 15,000 or so Wanna be’s do need to re-position their homes in the marketplace if they wish to sell.  We have established there is a marketplace to sell homes.  The issue is, most home sellers in SW Florida do not like what that number is, and continue to be Wanna be’s.  I don’t like hearing that the entire market needs to come down in price, because that’s not really the case.  The Wanna be’s do need to adjust, and they just seem like the entire market because there are so many of them.

I spoke with Russell Shaw, a top Realtor in Arizona, about the Phoenix market becuase his market was so similiar to the SW Florida real estate market on the way up.  In fact, I called us sister cities because our appreciation numbers were so similiar in 2004 and 2005.  Phoenix metroploitan area now has about 50,000 single family home listings on the market, and 16,000 new construction homes being built.  It’s no coincidence that Phoenix is struggling similiar to what were seeing.  In fact, AZ agents noticed just recently a speedy drop in home prices as home sellers became more realistic about actually selling.

Patrick Lilly, a Manhattan New York Townhouse specialist, has experienced a similiar market.  He has noticed recently though that Wall Street has taken notice of the stock market’s over valuation and real estate’s under valuation.  In the past few weeks he’s sold several $3 Million + condos to wall street investors who recognize that real estate is better valued now than the stock market, and he thinks this could be the beginning of the top on Wall Street and the bottom on Main Street.

NBC-2, ABC-7, and the Ellis Team at RE/MAX agree to a Premium sponsorship on the two TV stations newly unveiled Home Spot product.  In addition to Exclusive Community sponsorship of Reflection Lakes, The Ellis Team will also be a Premium sponsor of the entire Home Spot product line, in addition to online advertising on ABC-7.com and NBC-2.com’s news, weather, and sports sections.  The move will drive even more online leads to the Ellis Team’s SW Florida MLS search site, as well at leads to SW Florida’s most popular real estate site, Topagent.com

This is a win/win deal for all involved.  Ellis Team sellers will receive much more exposure under this arrangement, buyers will receive premium service by one of SW Florida’s Top real estate teams, and NBC and ABC receives credibility for their new product by one of SW Florida’s Top companies, RE/MAX Realty Group.

The Ellis Team has been a pioneer in online real estate sales as they were the first team in SW Florida to place the MLS on their website, and the first to even have a website over a decade ago.  The Ellis Team looks forward to selling even more homes using two of SW Florida’s premiere media outlets, driving more traffic to the Ellis Team’s websites than any other media outlets.

Seems everywhere you turn there’s another negative story about the SW Florida real estate market.  Our market certainly has its challenges, and we’ve been quick to point out that the 2007 market is nothing like the 2005 market and sellers better be prepared to price accordingly. Each month we present factual numbers on closings, pendings, inventory levels, showings, and other market conditions. Not all these facts are pretty, and some have been downright gloomy at times.  We’ve also pointed out some positive things about our market.  We’re free to report the good and the bad.  We’re not tied to any outcome, as the market will be what the market will be.  Our predictions have always been based on fact and experience, and we’re flexible in that we can change our opinions as the market changes.

Take two recent News-Press articles for example. More bad news for SW Florida on Sunday June 24, 2007 and today’s article Local housing sales bleak.  Both experts cited a report released  June 20 and featured in the News Press entitled Housing faces 2-year fall.  If these three articles published by the News Press aren’t enough to depress you, I don’t know what is.  And if I were a buyer reading these articles, I’d be too scared to buy anything around SW Florida for the next 2 years, and I wouldn’t be alone.  Articles like this destroy buyers confidence, and Realtors and sellers alike wonder why so many are on the fence and unwilling to buy.

From Hovanian’s perspective, Fort Myers is probably the worst housing market in the country.  Never mind the fact that First Home sold thousands of homes to speculators looking to do a qucik-flip, and priced out the very people that built the company into what it was in the first place.  First Home started as a low-end builder catering to first time home buyers.  They got away from what their original mission was when everyone involved saw green dollar signs.  The owner, Pat Logue, reportedly sold the company for $900 Million dollars to Hovanian Enterprises.  That’s a lot of dough, and Hovanian expects a return on investment.  Instead they have serious problems from speculators who closed the first part of a construction loan but are having problems closing the back-end, which puts First Home in jeopardy because there are a lot of final draws sitting out there.  Word on the street is there are about 1,600 First Home homes coming out of the ground that are in trouble, and that’s a lot of money.  While this number cannot be verified, and certainly not all are in trouble, whatever the number is presents a huge problem for Hovanian.  They paid too much for a company that was inflated, and inherited legal troubles and shaky speculators unwilling to close.  Put all that together, and you can see why they think Fort Myers is the worst market in the country. 

As to why the PMI article is being relied upon as fact is a surprise.  We found the article to be based upon old information and doesn’t take into account that our market has already reacted and moved significantly in price, and uses factors that are not as relevant to our market.

Median income relative to median sale price is often quoted by these articles.  We argue this isn’t as relevant here in SW Florida as we have many 2nd homes here, and some retirees.  2nd homeowners buy nice homes that impact median price, but their income is not factored in because they don’t live here.  Secondly, retirees move to SW Florida to enjoy the good life, and we do have a high quality of life here in SW Florida.  Retirees save their entire life, and often pay cash for their last or 2nd to last home in life.  They often don’t  have the income they had while they were working, but they have accumulated significant wealth and assets.  They buy homes here in SW Florida, but don’t always contribute as much to median income like they once could have while they worked.  This is precisely why the ratios studies like this use to prove whether a market is properly valued (median income/median price) simply isn’t as relevant to this kind of market.  read entire Blog article on why we feel this study is useless.

Now for some facts that haven’t made the newspaper.  Median home sale prices have been very stable to upward trending for the past 6 months.  See SW Florida Real Estate Month Over Month Prices.  You might also find interest in SW Florida Real Estate Prices 2005-2007 to see how prices are doing by month compared to last two years.  Notice the stability in prices in 2007?  Have you seen that reprted recently?

We would like to see transactions pick up the pace.  See SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed 2005-2007.  Property tax reform could help in this area as the demand from this segment of the market has been taken out of the equation by the tax inequities of our property tax system.  Some of that was fixed and awaiting Florida voters votes on January 29, 2008.

In the past week the Ellis Team has placed several listings under contract.  Our buyer specialists have written several contracts and they’ve been accepted.  We’ve noticed an up-tick in showing activity.  Internet traffic to our real estate websites has increased significantly in recent weeks.  We’ve sold homes to investors coming back into this market.  Not speculators, but rather long-term investors who see real value now.  When real investors start seeing value it is a sign that we’re on the last legs of this market correction.

Sales results are usually based upon your attitude.  If you’re not doing well in your business, it tends to skew your attitude towards the market.  Our attitude is the market is whatever it is, and we find ways to make things happen whatever the conditions are.  We’re not afraid to tell it like it is.  We’re not reporting good things because we need a sale, and we’re not reporting bad things because our business is down and it’s easier to blame the market than look at what we’re doing.

We just think it is time both sides get reported and that along with the bad news everybody is dreadfully aware of, there is also some good news and some positive things going on out there, and people shouldn’t lose confidence just because every other day there is bad news and quotes about how awful the SW Florida real estate market is and how bad they expect it to be for some time to come.  There’s a herd mentality going on, and not all news is bad.  We also think the News Press would benefit by changing their experts up from time to time, or at the very least adding moe experts to counter-balance the one-sided story being told.

The Ellis Team was the first to report the market was set to take-off early in the 2000’s when many didn’t see it coming.  We were the first to burst the bubble on TV in 2005 when everyone else was saying this market is a run-away freight train and you can’t stop it.  We were also the first to inject positive signs back into this market in 2006 and 2007.  We have seen pockets of strength. Will we always be right, of course not.  Do we have to be right, of course not.  Do we mind presenting both sides?  No, and we think this market could use just a little bit more of both sides, otherwise the doom and gloom can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We don’t always report positive facts.  We do present both sides though, and if you’d like to continue to receive both sides, be sure to listen to our weekly radio show "The Future of Real Estate" or subscribe to this RSS feed.

Also, check out our recently updated website.