The Ellis Team SW Florida Current Market Index stabilized this past month, which is a good sign heading into season.  Listing inventory increases in both single family homes and condos in southwest florida, and so did pending sales.  In fact, pending sales climbed at an equal to or greater rate than what we’ve been seeing in past months.

Buyer activity has increased, and demand for our Southwest Florida short sale seminar is growing as well.  If you’d like to attend our next free SW Florida short sale seminar, please call our office to register.  We teach first time home buyers. move-up buyers, and investors how to consistently buy properties at or below today’s fair market value, and educate consumers about the local SW Florida real estate market.

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.

November 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,710 797 19.71
Condo 8,361 388 21.55
October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20
September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06
August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64
July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91
June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06
May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44
April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535

15.60

The weakening dollar has created many issues for US consumers, but could it be help our housing economy with foreign investors looking for an investment or even a second home?

"European investment is likely to pick up," said Mark Vitner, chief economist for Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia Corp. "Now is the time to come over and take advantage."

This winter we are foreseeing that foreign investors will step in and replace first-time home buyers who have been squeezed out of the housing market during the recent downturn. This surge of foreign investors in turn will enable current homeowners to sell and trade up to larger homes, a process that has been crucial in our economic growth.

As the real estate market has slumped the dollar has also sunk to all time lows compared to other foreign currencies, such as the euro. This means that foreign investors can purchase more in the US. This in turn will make the real estate market very appealing this season.

The surge of foreign investors can help set a floor for our market here in SW Florida. Guess where the top places for foreign investors will be??? Florida and California are expected to have a surge in foreign investment which will help in placing a bottom to our market.

Speaking of bottom… Where was the top?

With the market closed on Monday in observance of Veteran’s Day – the rest of the week will roar into action with a packed economic calendar, including a look at retail sales numbers, consumer and producer inflation, and the manufacturing sector too.

Remember that when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates improve! – Bond prices have overall been trending higher over the last few months, meaning home loan rates on conforming loans have improved in general. Any weak or negative economic news arriving this week should help money flow into the safe haven of Bonds, helping Bond pricing move higher and home loan rates move lower. But lingering concerns on the credit quality of Mortgage Bonds could hamper their road higher – so this week could be volatile.

 

 

 

 

With the market closed on Monday in observance of Veteran’s Day – the rest of the week will roar into action with a packed economic calendar, including a look at retail sales numbers, consumer and producer inflation, and the manufacturing sector too.

Remember that when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates improve! – Bond prices have overall been trending higher over the last few months, meaning home loan rates on conforming loans have improved in general. Any weak or negative economic news arriving this week should help money flow into the safe haven of Bonds, helping Bond pricing move higher and home loan rates move lower. But lingering concerns on the credit quality of Mortgage Bonds could hamper their road higher – so this week could be volatile.

 

 

 

 

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX is holding a Short Sale Seminar in Fort Myers Monday November 12, 2007.  Call 239-489-4042 to signup as seating is limited.  In this seminar we will teach buyers what the banks are looking for in the short sale process, and how to close on these properties quickly and circumvent the long approval process.

Selecting the correct properties, and working with agents experienced in the short sale process is critical in having success buying short sales.  We’ll show you the inside secrets directly from the Top executives at many of the Loss Mitigation Departments.

Only the experience of RE/MAX and the Ellis Team can bring you these inside secrets as we have nationwide connections with Top industry professionals who share them with us so we can help them sell their properties.

Many investors erroneously believe they can get great deals by making offers designed to trigger a counter-offer from the lender.  We will teach you how to discern myth from fictions, and teach you the right way to obtain the home of your dreams at an affordable price in SW Florida, or buy that investment home at today’s lower prices.

We are offering this seminar to end user first or second home buyers, or small investors.  There are investment groups who offer tips and strategies to investors who wish to purchase homes in bulk,  We are not offering this seminar to bulk investors at this time.

We will be sharing tips and insight you won’t get anywhere else.  If you miss this seminar, please call our office to find out when the next when will occur and we’ll get you on the list.

This past week rates on 30 year mortgages dropped to their lowest levels in 5 months! This is a great time to get into the housing market with a fixed 30 year mortgage to give predicatable low payments. Right now more than ever buyers have choices to purchase exactly what they want and get financing at historically low interest rates. There are also several 100% financing programs available for the first time buyer.

Short sales are the new buzz words in real estate for the past year or two, and there are certain things you need to know to be able to accomplish this task.  Short sales are an excellent way to purchase a property at or below today’s fair market value, and you need to work with an agent that thoroughly understands this process.

On this past weeks radio show we invited two experts from Countrywide Home Loans to explain the Best way to purchase these properties.  Countrywide is the nation’s largest lender, and is being proactive so that they don’t have to foreclose on these properties.

Last year Countrywide foreclosed on 7,000 properties nationwide, and already this year 25,000 are in foreclosure.  They don’t want anymore.

If you wish to buy or sell using this process, there are some important things your agent needs to know, so make sure you’re working with an agent who knows the systems and the regulations, otherwise buyer will miss out on a good deal and seller could lose home to foreclosure.

Listen to this week’s show online to hear more about the process.  Click on November 3, 2007 Show.

For those interested in consistently buying real estate in SW Florida below market value, call our office to signup for our next short sale seminar next week.

SW Florida real estate market numbers released today by the Florida Association of Realtors show a continuing decline in the real estate market, which comes as no surprise as we posted our Ellis Team CMI Index numbers back on October 16 that suggested this would be the case.

Single family home sales fell to 327 in September, down from 520 in August, and 693 last September.  Single family home prices fell to $231,600 this September, and was down 7.7 percent from August’s $250,800 and down 11% from last September’s $261,400.

Single family home sales were the good news.  Condo sales fared worse, also predictable due to the CMI Index numbers released a few weeks ago.  Condo sales were 102 this September 2007, up from 96 in August, but down from 168 last year.  Prices for condos were up to $224,000, up from $218,800 in August, and down from $231,600.  The bad news for condos isn’t the prices or sales levels, it is the sales levels as compared to the level of inventory on the market.

Even with the poor numbers, they can partially be explained by seasonality, and partially by overall weakness.  See SW Florida single family home sales graph 2005-2007. To view sales prices , see SW Florida single family home price graph 2005-2007.

The Outlook going forward actually is brighter than the numbers indicate.  For the first time in a long while buyers are getting excited again, and are venturing out looking at homes.  For some, it is simply becuase home prices are back in their affordability range.  For others, it’s the sense that now may be the time to buy as prices have come down so much, and they’re feeling confident again going forward.

 

It could just be the time of year as pending sales typically drop anyway, or it could be a sign that the market hasn’t bottomed out yet.  Either way we’re not happy that the CMI Index has risen once again, a telling sign about the upcoming months ahead for this market.

Active listings are holding relatively steady. however, they are still rising.  Pending sales are also holding relatively steady, however, they are still dropping.  Either one wouldn’t be so bad except for the fact that inventory levels are near their highest levels.  This isn’t the best time for either of these events to occur, let alone both simultaneously.

Many agents I talk to, however, are optimistic that this upcoming season will be much better than the past two seasons.  We also look forward to the results of proeprty tax reform in Florida, which could influence affordability for home buyers.

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.

October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20
September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06
August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64
July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91
June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06
May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44
April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535

15.60

Tenants are being evicted because their landlords are collecting rents but not paying the mortgage on the home.  Some sellers legitimately can’t afford the negative cash flow, however they are keeping and pocketing the rent and not paying the bank anything.  This practice may violate the terms of the mortgage, and forces the bank to foreclose on the home, leaving the tenant homeless.

To make matters worse, we just have to wonder whether the landlord has followed the law and placed the last months rent and security deposit into a separate Florida bank account for safe keeping. 

Tenants have been calling our office looking for a place to rent or buy.  Some tenants in SW Florida are taking the opportunity to buy at better prices now that the real estate market has corrected.  Not all tenants are in a position to take advantage of the buying opportunities due to credit issues, so they are forced to move quickly to another rental home.  Moving can be costly, so it pays to make sure your future landlord is financially stable and will pay the mortgage.  Ironically, it has been landlords who have done credit checks on potential tenants before deciding to rent to them.  We may see a day when tenants also do a mortgage check to make sure the landlord is financially making the payments.  Talk about a turn of events.