Suffice it to say the Ellis Team goes on it’s fair share of listings appointments in SW Florida, and we are in tune with what’s on the minds of home sellers.

Some sellers are logically tuned in to what’s going on in the SW Florida real estate market, some are in shock and awe, especially the ones who bought in 2005, some are happy and accept it is what it is, and some are downright fearful as they are in danger of losing their property.

While the Ellis Team goes on many listing appointments, we only take a small percentage of listings.  We only list properties when we feel we can help the seller.  In order for us to do that, the seller must price the property in-line with today’s market conditions, and must be willing to accept out expertise and advice.

Some sellers decide they’re going to sell for a certain price because that’s what they "Need" out of the property, or that’s what it’s "Worth" and somebody should just pay it.  When confronted with the facts, we’ve even heard some sellers say, "OK, it may not be worth that, but that’s what I want, and can’t you just find someone from up North who doesn’t know any better to pay it?" We explain that we actually have to sell a home three times in order to have a successful sale, so we better price it right upfront.

1. It better be priced correctly in MLS, or other agents won’t even show the property as they have a choice of thousands of properties to choose from when showing their customers, and they usually picked the Best values.  If your home isn’t priced right, it won’t get shown by other agents.
2. The buyer is the one who is out there looking at maybe 20 properties before making a decision to buy.  Your home or condo is in competition with all the other thousands of properties on the market right now, so it better be priced in-line with other comparable properties, or the buyer will just buy something else.
3. Lastly, even if we’re successful getting agents to show the property, and the buyer to accept that your property is the "Best" value available, the bank will still require an appraisal.  Banks are skeptical not lend more money than the property is worth.  Foreclosures are rising, and banks know that property values have declined since 2005.  Banks lending money will require an appraisal, and sometimes two before they lend in today’s market.  Your home must be in-line with Sold data, not just what other active sellers are "Asking" for their property.

This brings me back to Sellers "must be willing to accept out expertise and advice."  If the seller is willing to price the property correctly, they must also be willing to allow us to do our job and sell the property for them.  Sometimes sellers get in their own way by listening to other so-called experts about how to sell a property.  Perhaps a neighbor gave them advice on something that worked for them in the past or a friend or relative tells them something they should do.  Some ideas are good, and should be part of a pro-active marketing campaign to sell your home.  Other ideas are not proven or time tested, and frankly some are just off the wall and do not work.

It takes two things to sell a home in today’s market.  Aggressive Marketing and Aggressive Pricing.  One without the other isn’t good enough.  Ultimately the seller controls the price, while the Market determines the Value.  When price meets value, the property has a chance to sell, if buyers are aware of the property.  This is where aggressive marketing comes in, and this is what a good Realtor brings to the table.

Lastly, sellers control the marketing by the agent they select to market the property.  Sellers should be careful not to micro-manage the marketing as the seller is usually emotionally attached to the outcome, and the least prepared to know what actually works in selling a home.  This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ask questions of your agent.  It pays to ask these Most Important questions upfront in the listing interview.  Hiring the right agent the first time will save you much time, effort, money, and worry.  Hire the best agent, and then listen to their advice.

Soon we’ll have a follow-up article on pricing.

Showing activity slowed down slightly in the Fort Myers Cape Coral real estate marketfrom March’s pace, as you can see from these historical charts.  In a few days we’ll post updated pending sales activity to see if the showing that did occur were from serious buyers or lookers.

We have noticed a sense of urgency from buyers lately, especially in the single family homes market as they are feeling some degree of confidence and looking to buy close to the statistical bottom, which may have already occurred.

April 2007 Statistics:

March 2007 Statistics:

February 2007 Statistics:

January 2007 Statistics:

Frank Mann, Lee County Commissioner, will be this weeks guest on "The Future of Real Estate". 

We plan to ask Frank about several issues including:

• Recent News Press Articles
• Property Tax Reform
• Truth in Millage
• Save our Homes Ammendment
• Growth in Lee County
• Property Tax Portability
• Taxation effects on Fire, Police, Education, and Transportation

Frank served 12 years in in Tallahassee, 8 years as a congressman in the house and 4 years in the senate.  Frank also served 2 years previously on the Lee County Commission when he was appointed to replace Vikki Lopez-Wolfe when she was replaced by the governor.  Frank also served 2 years as a Director for Southwest Florida Water Management Disctrict, so Frank does indeed have a tremendous anount of insight into SW Florida issues.

We plan to also ask Frank about the State government’s attempt to solve complex issues in quick time with simple solutions, and get his opinions about that.

Building permits for residential construction was off 17% from March, and down 69% from a year ago, and may be just what the doctor ordered.

A study released this past Monday shows that inventory levels of vacant houses in SW Florida started to fall in 2007 while the number of homes under construction declined sharply.  Because we have such an oversupply of homes on the market, we really needed for construction of new homes to slow until the market can catch up.

Investors forced builders to speed up production faster than they normally would have.  When the market topped out, builders were left with unsold inventory they thought was previously sold as investors backed out of deals.  This left us with a trtemendous oversupply of homes in Southwest Florida, and demand is back to normal 2001 levels.

Many people realize that a falling real estate economy leads to job layoffs and fallout throughout the business community.  Many builders have laid off employees, and some have had a hard time paying subcontractors because investors have backed out of sales contracts.  The builder is stuck with paying the bills.  This business model works when most of the buyers actually close on the property they contracted to purchase.  The breakdown has been when scores of buyers have backed out; some at the very last minute without warning.  Some of the buyers have very clever schemes designed to back out of contracts, leaving the builder in the lurch.

We’ve all seen the reporting on the First Homes scandal, and alleged misrepresentations by their Broker D’Alessandro & Woodyard Commercial Realtors.  We are not the judge or jury in this case, and we believe the truth will eventually work itself out regarding mortgage fraud, securities fraud, inflated appraisals, and representations in general.  Nobody knows the "Real Truth", and we may not for some time until the entire investigation is over.

The story that hasn’t been told though is the story of local builders who have been harmed, have had a difficult time paying employees and subcontractors, and large carrying costs associated with financing of land, property taxes, and construction.

In a follow-up Blog article we’ll focus on a few builders and the struggles they’ve encountered in this very difficult market.  We may produce this article in conjunction with the News Press.

Home sales spiked 50% in March of February, and condo sales spiked 48%.  Prices were up too.  The media noticed, as the Fort Myers News Press, Naples Daily News, and Bonita Daily News all ran stories on the latest numbers.  Home sale prices were up 4 out of the last 5 months in Lee County.  Buyers are gaining confidence in the market.  The Ellis Team has noticed a spike in home sales in the last 30 days, as has RE/MAX Realty Group in Fort Myers.

As predicted, March turned in some stellar numbers.  Single family home sales in Fort Myers Cape Coral MSA posted a 50.35% rise in sales from February 2007, and median home prices were up 4.65% to $268,000 in March.

Condominium sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral MSA were up 48.32% from February 2007 numbers, and the median sales price for a condo in SW Florida rose 1.29% to $250,800.

Pending sales are on the upswing.  Buyers in SW Florida have discovered that now is one of the best opportunities they will have in a long time.  Buyers are in control with excellent selection due to an over-supply of homes and condos on the market.  Buyers also enjoy low interest rates, decreasing cost of insurance, and housing affordability as prices are down substantially from 2005 levels.  Buyers may never be able to enjoy all factors working at once in their favor for a long time.

In cycles past, traditionally high supplies of inventory were caused by rising inflation and high interest rates.  This is not the case as this over-supply of homes came from speculators and investors who sped up supply.  They also created a false sense of demand, and once that demand quit, we were left with real over-supply and normal demand.

Just because prices appear to have bottomed does not mean there won’t be more price reductions for some sellers.  We know where the buyers are, and the sellers who price their homes where the buyers are at are selling.  These sellers don’t need to reduce any further.  The market appears pretty well set in many segments. 

The sellers who are not priced where the buyers are need to adjust their price, or take their home off the market as it is essentially off the market anyway.  If a home is not priced "At the Market" is is "Off the Market."  Buyers will not overpay for a home that isn’t priced at today’s prices.

Buyers will jump at properties that are priced correctly.  Buyers are gaining confidence again in this market.  By mid-year we expect home sale prices to be even with prices from 2006.  This market has followed our predictions very well since 2005 when we predicted 2006 would be a year of transition to lower prices.  Last year we predicted prices would bottom out 4th quarter of 2006 and remain flat until 2nd qtr of 2007, then begin a slow rise throughout the year.  It does appear that median home prices bottomed out October of 2006, and have begun a slow ascent back up.

Home prices are up 4 out of the last 5 months and are up about 7.5% from the lows last October.The Florida Association of Realtors released sales statistics today for single family home sales and condo sales.  See How Lee County staks up this year Vs. last year, and how every district in the state did.

WINK Radio inadvertently aired the 1st half of last weeks show in place of the first half of this weeks show.  It was unfortunate for two reasons.  In the first half of last weeks show we talked about the Relay For Life Event that took place last week, and invited people to come out and participate.  That was last week’s news.

Secondly, in the first of this weeks show, we interviewed a top attorney in SW Florida about Foreclosures and Bankruptcy.  Listeners completely missed the first half of what the attorney said in the first half, so the second half didn’t have the context it should.

Most likely we’ll replay the entire show from this past week’s show next week so listeners get the benefit of what the attorney said.  It was a fantastic show.

We apologize for the onconvenience.