Monthly Archives: June 2008

Official SW Florida Real Estate Sales Numbers Due Out Tomorrow

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We were uploading video to our YouTube account the other day and we came across this news story we did back on March 3, 2008 where we said the real estate market is changing.

We also mentioned on air that we were seeing a 60% increase in pending sales back in April in a news story entitled SW Florida Real Estate Housing Numbers.

On June 18, 2008 we wrote an article entitled Preliminary SW Florida Real Estate May Sales Numbers  All signs point to housing numbers that should show an increase in sales of about 57-61% in transactions.  We expect to see a decline in median price from May of last year around 25% give or take a few percentage points.  Many thought April’s numbers were a one-time event, but we don’t think so.  In fact, our Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index suggests transaction strength for awhile to come.

We’ll all be watching the numbers as they are released tomorrow, and we’ll be surprised if the volume isn’t very strong as affordability is back in the market.

Future of Real Estate Radio Show Will Interview Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott This Week

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This week’s guest will be Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott.

We will ask the sheriff for a crime update in SW Florida.  We’ll also ask how the economy and foreclosures are affecting crime, and his efforts to crack down on air conditioner and appliance thefts in Lee County’s vacant homes.  We’ll also ask what the sheriff”s office is doing to crakdown on grow houses and drugs,  A lot of people ask us about trafiic enforcement, so we’ll ask why there seems to be a stepped up effort to write speeding tickets and we’ll ask where that money goes.

We’ll definitely ask how the property taxes and the budget crisis is affecting his department, as well as gas prices and salaries.  This should be a power packed hour filled with lots of questions and hopefully lots of answers, so tune in Saturday at 11:00AM on WINK AM 1240 and 1270 in Naples live, or you can listen to the show on the Internet starting next Monday after it airs.  SImply go to  our Radio Show page and click on Listen Online.

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate June 2008 Current Market Index Improves For a Fifth Straight Month

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The Ellis Team SW Florida real estate Current Market Index improved for the 5th straight month.  The index moved down to 7.23 for the Fort Myers, Cape Coral area.  For the entire Lee County Florida area the Current Market Index fell to 9.21, down from 9.57 the previous month.

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index

Single family listings in Lee County rose to 15,634, up from 15,340 the month prior, but Pending sales increased to 1,697, up from 1,603 in May.  We’ve already predicted May sales numbers should be about 57-60% higher over last year, while average prices should be down about 25% from last year.  We used the mean average and the official numbers use the median average, so there could be some slight variations when numbers are released.

We look at closed sale data in addition to using the Current Market Index to get a direction of where the market is headed.  This index has been so successful in its accuracy that the National Association of Realtors have adopted a similiar but more simple formula to predict the future market called the Pending Home Sales Index.

Next week we’ll report official numbers for May, but suffice it to say that not only will May numbers look stellar but June numbers should also look stellar once the month is completed.

Ellis Team Interviewing Buyer Agents For Sales Position

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The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group is currently interviewing licensed real estate agents to join our team.  Agents need to possess a good work ethic, excellent reputation for customer service and ethics, and be a good listener.

The Ellis Team’s marketing has created an abundance of buyers looking to purchase property in SW Florida.  Current buyer agents are having a difficult time taking a day off, and there are many days when all agents are out showing property to buyers and we don’t have agents answering the phone the way we like.  Some would say it’s a good problem to have in tough times, but it really isn’t a good problem.  We prefer to always have someone at the office who can answer phones and customers questions, and while we recognize there can always be situations where this can happen, it is happening much too often.  Our agents have asked us to get more buyer agents on our team.

We are looking for quality individuals, not people to just fill a seat and cherry pick phone calls.  We need to add quality people, but we won’t sacrifice quality just to sell more numbers.  If you have a license and think you have what it takes, please call our office for an interview to learn how our aggressive marketing can help you succeed in real estate today.

239-489-4042

Preliminary SW Florida Real Estate May Sales Numbers

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Official sales numbers for May won’t be released until about June 25th by the Florida Association of Realtors.  I’ve spent some time this month analyzing May home sales, and it pretty much confirms what our latest Current Market Index suggested, that sales would be up in May.  The Current Market Index accurately predicts the SW Florida real estate market into the future, so May’s number’s won’t be surprising.

We’ll release these numbers today with one caveat.  The official numbers are derived from various MLS sources, and are adjusted after the fact sometimes a year later.  The results we release today may not be 100% in line with what is officially released, but we will go on record with our predictions and we’ll see just how close they were once the officials are released.

From the data we’ve looked at, it appears May Sales were up 51.67% over last May’s numbers, which would beat the 41% increase of the official April numbers.  It would also hint that April’s sales numbers were not an aberration and may indicate buyers are truly off the fence as homes have become affordable.  In fact, homes sales in May were up 7% over April’s blistering pace.

Home prices in May were down 25.07% from last May’s numbers, less than April’s 29% official number.  For this example we used average mean price and not the average median price.  We are showing a 1.82% price increase ion the average mean price of a home in SW Florida this May over this April, another encouraging sign.

So what does all this number business mean?  It means buyers are back in the game, sales are very, very strong, and prices may have leveled this past month.  We’ll wait for official numbers to be posted later this month, but don’t be surprised to see more encouraging news once official numbers are released.  We think buyers have their greatest leverage right now, and time is slowly slipping away on buyers as market inventory has actually been going down and sales are up drastically.  We predicted 2008 to be a year of bouncing along the bottom in our 2008 State of the Market Report released last January, and it certainly is shaping up that way.

Bank foreclosures and short sales have helped affordability in the SW Florida market.  Inventory has been coming down, and without the bank foreclosures and short sales we would eventually run out of inventory and be back in the same sellers market we were in a few years ago, minus the wild speculation that occurred.  To listen to Brett Ellis tell how to buy bank foreclosures in Fort Myers and Cape Coral in a radio interview, click here.

Check out  an Inside the numbers look at Entry Level Home Sales and Inventory in SW Florida for april.  This will give you an idea of what is driving the Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres home sales market.

 

Preliminary Lee County 2007 Taxable Values Released

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Lee County Property Appraiser Ken Wilikinson released preliminary taxable values today.  The Ellis Team was able to secure an advanced copy and has provided a breakdown of values by area.  This is a complicated formula as new construction is built into these numbers, as well as personal property.  The following chart will give you a pretty good estimate by area of the county of how the Property Appraiser’s office feels values fared last year.  You can compare these values with our 2008 State of the Market Report. (Pg 10)

Lee County Tax Roll Values-Estimate 2008
Lee County Total Taxable -12.36%
City of Cape Coral  -26.56%
City of Ft Myers  -2.54%
City of Sanibel  -5.23%
Town of Ft Myers Beach  -11.12%
City of Bonita Springs  -7.27%
Independent Fire District  
Alva Fire District  -9.90%
Bayshore Fire District  -4.88%
Boca Grande Fire District  .19%
Bonita Springs Fire District  -4.72%
Captive Fire District  2.14%
Estero Fire District  1.05%
Ft Myers Beach Fire District  -9.13%
Ft Myers Shores Fire District  -.74%
Iona McGregor Fire District  -4.05%
Lehigh Acres Fire District  -17.33%
Matlacha-Pine Island Fire District  -15.25%
North Ft Myers Fire District  -5.98%
San Carlos Fire District  -.38%
Sanibel Fire District  -3.99%
South Trail Fire District  -3.47%
Tice Fire District  -5.64%
Upper Captiva Fire District  -10.51%
By Independent District  
Alva Area Taxable  -14.60%
Bayshore Area Taxable  -12.32%
Boca Grande Area Taxable  .39%
Bonita Springs Area Taxable  -6.54%
Captiva Area Taxable  2.95%
Estero Area Taxable  -1.15% 
Ft Myers Beach Area Taxable   -10.21%
Ft Myers Shores Area Taxable   -2.92%
Iona McGregor Area Taxable  -7.78%
Lehigh Acres Area Taxable  -22.98%
Matlacha-Pine Island Area Taxable  -19.47%
North Ft Myers Area Taxable   -11.83%
San Carlos Area Taxable   -4.05%
Sanibel Area Taxable   -4.31%
South Trail Area Taxable  -6.93%
Tice Area Taxable -10.58%
Upper Captiva Area Taxable          -10.22%

Tune in to "The Futire of Real Estate" this Saturday at 11:00 AM on AM 1240 in Fort Myers and AM 1270 Naples and Marco Island as Ken Wilkinson, Lee County Property Appraiser will be our guest.  We’ll ask Ken about the latest taxable values as well as upcoming Ammendments on the ballot and what they mean to the taxpayers this upcoming election.

SW Florida Real Estate Market Being Driven by the Lower End of the Market

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Foreclosures, short sales, and entry level homes are dominating the Southwest Florida real estate market with most of the sales coming from Cape Coral.  When we look at the Percent of April’s closings under $200,000 chart, we can clearly see that closings under $200,000 dominate the Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres, and Lee County real estate markets in general.  If you are priced above $200,000 in Lehigh Acres, you’ve got a slim chance of selling as that is not where the buyers are at in Lehigh.  Over 95% of Lehigh’s closings was at $200,000 or less.

We need not look any further than the Months Supply of Inventory Priced Less Than $200,000 chart.  As you can see, Lehigh Acres has over a 2 year supply of homes on the market right now, while Cape Coral and Lee County overall are less than 1 year.

Another interesting chart is the Percent of Homes Listed as Short Sales graph. 

Over 52% of homes listed in Lehigh Acres are short sales compared to 38.70 Percent for Lee County overall.  If we examine the shear number of short sales listed in Lee County priced less than $200,000 we can gain a little perspective.  Cape Coral has approximately half of the short sales listed in the entire county, and over half of the sales.  This tells us that when affordability meets opportunity, buyers jump off the fence and purchase.

Lastly, let’s look at the Percent of Homes on the Market is SW Florida Priced Less Than $200,000.  So it looks like Cape Coral is where the action is right now, and Cape Coral is probably closer to recovery than Lehigh Acres is, but you can see how fast a market can turn once transactions start occurring in a market segment.

We are also seeing the market being driven by the low end, but also a bleed-up effect which translates to more sales and more offers now in the $300,000-$500,000 range as well.  We expect May to be another good month for sales numbers once they’re posted at the end of the month.