In 2018 we’ve been on a recent record pace, eclipsing 2015 levels for homes sold in one year.  We haven’t gone back and analyzed against all-time highs more than a decade ago.  Since prices and home sales reset after the correction, we’re analyzing against recent records.  We believe we’re behind 2005 sales numbers, but not by as much as you would think. SW Florida homes closed YTD slipped slightly in September.

SW Florida Homes Closed YTD Slipped Slightly in September

We’ve been trending above 2015 numbers, so what changed?  In September of this year we dipped below 2015 levels and that set us back.  We only had 922 closed sales in September.  Back in 2015 we had 1,078.  I think we’ll be able to track where our market is headed by how well it holds up to 2015 levels.

This year we had 968 new pending sales.  Back in 2015 we had 1,169.  This could be an indicator that closed sales in October may fall below 2015 levels as well.  The median price back then was $211,578 and we had 3.7 months supply of inventory.  Contrast that with today our median price is $245,000 and a 4.9 month supply of inventory.

What’s different today is median home prices are 15.8% higher than they were 3 years ago, and interest rates were 3.978% and falling in 2015.  Today rates are at 4.875% and rising.  Rising rates have a way of spoiling home sales in that they rob buyers of purchasing power.  At some point they rob sellers too because if the sellers raise prices and rising interest rates also put pressure on buyers, the whole train stops.  You can’t have both for very long.  When buyers are maxed out, they’re at their limit.  With every rise in rates, it could be at the seller’s expense next.

The only thing that can offset this is rising wages.  Wages do appear to be on the rise somewhat, but they lag rises in rates.  This might explain why home prices haven’t risen since January of 2017.  Sure, we’ve seen blips up and down, but statistically they haven’t moved.

How does this affect sellers trying to sell their home?  First off, we’ve got a balanced market.  Homes are moving if marketed and priced correctly.  Perhaps now more than ever marketing becomes critical.  Prices are stagnant, interest rates are rising, and inventory is building.  Hiring a Realtor who markets is critical.  We’re not talking about posting it on all the websites.  That’s not marketing.  Anybody and everybody can do that.  If you’re not sure what we’re talking about, then definitely give us a call.  When you sit down and see, it’s easy to understand why our results are different.

This is also the silly season for Realtors.  Board dues are up end of the year.  Realtors that haven’t marketed or seen results from their lead generation begin shopping around.  As a last-ditch effort to save their career, they look to low cost brokerages to reduce fees.  Ultimately this doesn’t bring them more buyers or sellers, so they eventually quit, but it does buy them a few more months in the business.  Others look to hop on teams that provide leads.  Some are so deep in debt even this won’t work because they waited too long.  Or, they just don’t know how to close leads.

When selecting a Realtor, ask to see their marketing.  Then call us.  I bet you’ll see a difference.  Ask them how many listings they successfully sold last year.  Ask them how long they’ve been with their company.  Do they jump around?  Will they be at the same company in a month or two?  Can you get out of your listing if they move?  Ask all these questions before you sign up.

Your best bet is to just call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty the first time.  Sure, we help a lot of customers who are on their 2nd or 3rd Realtor.  Wouldn’t it make sense to just use us first?

Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-489-40402 Ext 4 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com   Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday November 3 1-3 PM

Open House Saturday November 3 1-3 PM

Open House Sunday November 4 1-3 PM

What a difference a month makes.  A little over a month ago we were reporting rising inventory and median price increases of .8%.  Since then, inventory fell by almost 100 homes and Southwest Florida median home prices rose 8.2% in July from last year.  They rose 2% from June numbers alone.  The average price increase in July was 15.8% over last year and was about steady from the previous month.  One of the reasons we use the median price is it’s more stable and is not subject to wild fluctuations like the average is.

Southwest Florida Median Home Prices Rose 8.2% in July

In any event, both indicators are healthy gains.  All we see or hear in the media is how the water crisis is taking a toll on business and real estate sales.  Perhaps it is affecting waterfront real estate sales, however statistically we can’t say it’s hurting the overall market.  You must be careful not to buy into negative news.

At the Ellis Team, we’re all for reporting the news accurately.  It usually tells a story, but not always the story you think.  We like to look at the numbers and see if there is a cause and effect.  Sometimes there is, and sometimes there isn’t.  What is a problem for some becomes an opportunity for others, and we’re not just talking about the water crisis.

If you let outside influences affect your outlook, it can become your reality.  If you’re a real estate agent and you believe the market is down, you’ll sell as if the market is down.  When you believe the market is good, you’ll sell that way too.  You’ve heard the sayings, “Anything the mind can conceive, it will achieve”, and “Perception is reality”. This is 100% true.

We’re not saying agents should pump themselves up by saying the market is something it isn’t!  The sooner you identify and tackle reality the sooner you are on your way solving an issue. We are saying that agents and the public should seek first to understand before making broad assumptions.

If you were a military planner, you wouldn’t attack New Zealand because Syria was acting up.  You’d look at the whole situation and determine if force was even necessary to begin with, and if so, where.  The same is true in real estate.  Salt water waterfront may be affected while fresh water and non-waterfront might be on fire.

I haven’t gone in and done an in-depth analysis of salt water sales, so I can’t even tell you if it’s being harmed nor by how much.  I’ve seen agents on TV telling us how bad it’s affected their sales.  While I don’t doubt that, you must ask the question.  Is that their perception making their reality come true, or is it fact?  It could very well be fact, and perhaps one of these days we’ll research that and report to you what we find.

If you’re a buyer, or seller, it pays to know which segments of the market are hot, and which are not.  It affects how soon you must place your offer when you find a nice home, and how close to asking price you should offer.  The Ellis Team are experts at counseling buyers and sellers.  Sande and Brett each have over 30 years’ experience, and we have a team of agents we meet with every week and discuss market conditions.

Last week one of our agents identified a hot buy alert on a property in Cape Coral.  One of our other agents on the team sold it.  When you have a small army who knows the market and works in it every day, it helps all your clients.

If you’re looking to purchase, call us at 239-489-4042 or check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com  It has some of the area’s best buys, and it’s updated instantly.  If you’re thinking of selling, check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com, or call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4.

We’ll be happy to give you great advice we give all our clients.  The value isn’t in the agent showing you homes, it’s in the knowledge behind the research.  The Ellis Team has the knowledge and the research.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

The Future of Real Estate Southwest Florida Market Update August 2018

If you’ve noticed a lack of housing options in your home search, you’re not alone.  Home prices have been climbing nationwide since 2011.  It’s no coincidence that new home construction has played a role in the surge in home prices nationwide.

Lack of New Home Construction Nationwide Fueling Housing Shortage

Lack of New Home Construction Nationwide Fueling Housing Shortage

Many homeowners in SW Florida would love to sell their home and move to another.  They’re caught in a catch 22 situation because their home is sell-able, and yet they haven’t found a suitable place to move to.  Because housing inventory is so light, many sellers won’t accept a contingency offer, because they don’t have to.  So, when a homeowner finds a home they like, they don’t have time to place their home on the market and act.

Lack of New Home Construction Nationwide Fueling Housing Shortage Rising Prices

If the kids are grown and moved out of the house, some sellers have options.  If their home is no longer working for them, they can sell and move into a rental while they shop for a new home.  They can build a new home, or they can wait for a resale.  These homeowners are in an advantageous position right now because we can get top dollar for their home, and they’re ready to pounce when the right home hits the market.

If they wait, they must put their home on the market fast, and perhaps take less for their home just to make the speed part of the deal work.

Nationwide, the historical average of new homes being built is 1 million.  Since 2011, we haven’t hit 1 million yet.  Each year, we’re adding to the deficit of what the market needs.  The lack of supply puts pressure on the resale market and prices rise.  The rub is that prices are rising at 6% while incomes are only rising at 2-3%.  There is a top, and this is where new construction can help ease the burden.

Experienced Agents Get Creative in Low Inventory Markets

The Ellis Team at Keller Williams has gotten creative in finding housing for our buyers.  The first thing we do is provide the area’s best website for house shopping.  Our website www.LeeCountyOnline.com updates every minute, so you’re looking at homes in real-time.  Speed wins and beating out other buyers to hot new listings is the name of the game.  We have some new mortgage options too that are saving buyers thousands of dollars on their transaction.  This has enabled some buyers to purchase now and list their home after they’ve secured their next home.

We’ve also put a few deals together with a home sale contingency.  Sometimes it makes sense, and when it does we’re able to negotiate that, so it works for buyer and seller.  It takes a skilled and experienced agent to negotiate this, so don’t try this with a newer agent.

If you’ve thought about selling, but not sure where you would go if your home did sell, you should call Sande or Brett Ellis (239-489-4042 Ext 4) for a free quick meeting.  After listening to your situation, we may be able to find a solution that suits your needs.  We have a secret list of buyers just waiting for the right home to come on the market too, so we might already have your buyer.  If you’d like to get an idea of what your home may be worth, check out www.swflhomevalues.com 

Selling now can be a big advantage while inventory is low.  Many sellers will place their home on the market as season approaches.  Having buyers all to yourselves for a few months is fun, and quite possibly you’ll have your home sold before other sellers.

Call the Ellis Team today and see how we can accomplish your goals.  Good luck, and Happy Home Hunting!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open Saturday 1-3 PM

15118 Cloverdale Dr

15118 Cloverdale Dr Parker Lakes Ellis Team Weekend Open House
Parker Lakes Open House

Open House Sunday 1-3 PM

2008 Bolado Pkwy Cape Coral

Cape Coral Pool Home Ellis Team Weekend Open House