Tag Archives: SW Florida real estate market

Are SW Florida Real Estate Sales in Trouble?

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Some might look at recent SW Florida single family home sales numbers and wonder if the market has peaked as sales have slacked off a bit, but let’s not jump to conclusions just yet. This week we take you inside the numbers and explain what’s happening and what we’re keeping our eyes on.

Are SW Florida Real Estate Sales in Trouble

Homes Sold single family Bonita Springs Estero Florida Fort Myers Cape Coral

As you can see from the Homes Sold graph, sales are down. This is somewhat expected as inventory is down and agents have been selling more new construction to satisfy home buyer’s needs. 2013 sales numbers dipped in January but rebounded nicely going into season leading up to a fantastic May. This could happen again this year.

Should sellers beware? Maybe. While you can definitely see the seasonality of home sales, there is no doubt the rising home sale prices will limit buyers, as will rising interest rates. Rates are expected to rise even more in 2014.

Pending home sales graph Lee County Florida

We also looked at pending sales in December 2013 and January 2014 as this is an indicator of potential future closings in the coming months. Pending sales were down 16.4% year over year in December, and down 6.4% in January. Again, this is a short time frame to look at, and some of this could be attributed to limited inventory, however it could impact reported closings going forward.

We really want to look at how February sales come in which won’t be reported for another 3 weeks or so. Prices will probably be higher and sales could be lower than last year. January thru May sales set the trend for all year, so we’re keeping a close eye on trends these first few months.

Yes, we’ll probably have rising prices. Prices rose again in January to a $180,000 median price and a mean average of $301,035. That’s up roughly 25% or better for both numbers over last year.

Are rising prices limiting sales? Is limited inventory holding back sales? Is new construction competing with existing home sales again? Are rising interest rates limiting sales? Nobody knows the answers yet. We’ve identified some indicators to watch though.

If you’re a seller, you might want to look at how well your home competes against other similar homes on the market. A few weeks ago we posted on our Blog inventory levels by price range. If you have a $ 1 Million+ home there is currently about a 3 yr supply of homes on the market, so you have to look at what you need to do to sell your home versus waiting 3 years. And what if the market falls within 3 years or more listings come to the market? It could take even longer to sell at reduced prices.

If your home is in the $400-600,000 range, there is about a 1 year supply of homes. Again, it pays to know your competition and price accordingly. Our market has been doing well the past few years. 2014 looks to be another good year, but don’t take price gains for granted. There is no law that says prices will rise forever. New construction is now competing against you again for the first time in years. SW Florida may return to a more moderate market, which is probably best anyway.

We’ll keep tracking the trends, and as always, if you need assistance buying or selling in SW Florida, Always Call the Ellis Team. 239-489-4042 or www.TopAgent.com

Good luck and happy buying/selling!


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Home Sale Prices Rising Nationwide

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Last week I had the pleasure of presenting the residential market outlook to the CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) Real Estate Outlook Conference.  This conference is comprised of the Top commercial specialists in Charlotte, Lee, and Collier Counties along with community leaders like Mayor Randy Henderson of Fort Myers, Jim Nathan president of Lee Memorial Health System, a VP from Hertz, and Wilson Bradshaw president of FGCU among others.

The commercial market lags the residential market.  Residential went down before commercial did and therefore came out sooner.  CCIM experts were happy to report commercial is again on the rebound.  2013 was a very good year for residential which bodes well for commercial going forward.

Home Sale Prices Rising Nationwide

Nationwide housing prices rebounded in December quite nicely over the previous year.  Detroit saw the largest increase in the RE/MAX national housing report followed by Las Vegas.  Fort Myers came in with a 24% median price increase in December, and for the year Lee Home Sale Prices Rising NationwideCounty saw a 28.31% gain over 2012 numbers.

In December there were reports nationwide of a slowdown in home sales but many states have reported this may have been a weather related issue as treacherous weather has wreaked havoc on airlines, schools, and businesses up North this year.

The North’s bad weather could be SW Florida’s good fortune as we have seen in years past bad weather up North leading to more home sales down here.  In fact, yesterday I heard Carnival cruise lines announced they sold more cruises in January than any other month in history.  With blizzard conditions this week and forecast conditions again next week, this might be the last year for some suffering through this weather.

Lee County is working on bringing more companies to SW Florida, and with record breaking bad weather, maybe we’ll attract entire companies rather than just disgruntled homeowners looking to make a change. This would be huge as we’d be adding jobs to the area to go along with increased residents.

While the SW Florida real estate market may not see 28% price gains this year, 2014 looks to be on track to be another great year. If another company or two like Hertz or Gartner decides to relocate here it could turn into a fantastic year.

We’ll be keeping our eye on several wild cards which could affect our market.  Weather up North is one of them, along with the national housing market, interest rates, the overall economy, consumer confidence, business hiring and unemployment, and company relocations.

Realistic sellers have an excellent chance to sell their home right now.  We have seen some over-pricing occurring in this market and we’re watching these listings sit on the market.  A Seller’s market is an excellent time to sell but not a license to over-price.  Over-priced homes do not sell.  Believe it or not, back in 2005 and 2006 many sellers failed to sell because they were greedy and missed an opportunity.  Oh my, would they love to have those days back!

If you have a home to sell, call us at 239-489-4042.  We can help.  If you’re a buyer, it pays to work with someone who knows the market.  To search the MLS go to www.TopAgent.com

Good luck and Happy Selling/Buying!
To search the MLS for properties go to www.TopAgent.com or give us a call at 239-489-4042 You can even search for waterfront property in Fort Myers, Cape C oral, or all of SW Florida    Good luck and Happy House Hunting!!!

 

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Twas the Week After Christmas

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Twas the week after Christmas, and all through the land, The phones were all silent, and open houses were bland,

But that all changed now that Christmas has passed, for buyers are looking, these listings  won’t last.

The weather up North is really not nice, they’re driving around in heavy snow and slick ice.

It wouldn’t be so bad, if the snow would just melt, the winter season is long, and that wind is just Hell. 

Snowbirds keep calling, new listings better come quick.  I don’t know why they’re driving slowly, our roads are not slick. 

Perhaps they’re driving the neighborhood with a magnifying glass and map, when all they have to do is use our website or search our phone app. 

It’s easy to remember, and works on the go, simply go to TopAgent.com, and search like a pro 

So please dear sellers, pick up that phone, always call the Ellis team, we’ll get your home sold. 

May 2014 be Merry and all your wishes come true, and if we can be of assistance, let the Ellis Team help you

 

Twas the Week After Christmas

Phone calls typically don’t pick up until about Jan 15 or so as seasonal visitors get settled into their rentals.  We do however have an influx of people visiting the week after Christmas and they may be here only about a week or so.  When they see how nice SW Florida is, they quite often inquire about real estate.  If you go to the beach around new years I guarantee you will see a lot of shirts from Wisconsin, Iowa, and OhioState.  That’s because Florida has several bowl games and many of these fans come down to Ft Myers Beach for sun and fun before the game.

This year Wisconsin plays South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando Jan 1.  Iowa also plays Jan 1 against LSU in Tampa. Ohio State plays Jan 3rd against Clemson in the Orange Bowl in Miami.

We get visitors from all over and many from Germany and Europe over the Holidays.  Once the New Year’s rush is over many of our visitors tend to rent monthly.  It’s amazing how many calls we receive the day before they leave, and sometimes on the way to the airport asking to see a house.  I guess they really hate to leave, and who can blame them?  We moved here from the Midwest, and most people living here came from somewhere else.

As you can see from the graph prices over the past few years have risen in season and we expect that trend to continue this year.  It’s already happening.  We hope 2014 is a great year for you, and if you have questions, don’t hesitate to call us. 239-489-4042 or visit Topagent.com

If you’d like to search the market as either a buyer or seller, visit www.Topagent.com If you need extra help we’re always available to talk to you and help you make better decisions. Our phone number is 239-489-4042 Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

To search the MLS for properties go to www.TopAgent.com or give us a call at 239-489-4042     Good luck and Happy House Hunting!!!

Feel free to view our Virtual Tours .

Visit our Google+ Business Page

 

 

SW Florida Real Estate Market Still Slumping Along

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SW Florida real estate market numbers released today by the Florida Association of Realtors show a continuing decline in the real estate market, which comes as no surprise as we posted our Ellis Team CMI Index numbers back on October 16 that suggested this would be the case.

Single family home sales fell to 327 in September, down from 520 in August, and 693 last September.  Single family home prices fell to $231,600 this September, and was down 7.7 percent from August’s $250,800 and down 11% from last September’s $261,400.

Single family home sales were the good news.  Condo sales fared worse, also predictable due to the CMI Index numbers released a few weeks ago.  Condo sales were 102 this September 2007, up from 96 in August, but down from 168 last year.  Prices for condos were up to $224,000, up from $218,800 in August, and down from $231,600.  The bad news for condos isn’t the prices or sales levels, it is the sales levels as compared to the level of inventory on the market.

Even with the poor numbers, they can partially be explained by seasonality, and partially by overall weakness.  See SW Florida single family home sales graph 2005-2007. To view sales prices , see SW Florida single family home price graph 2005-2007.

The Outlook going forward actually is brighter than the numbers indicate.  For the first time in a long while buyers are getting excited again, and are venturing out looking at homes.  For some, it is simply becuase home prices are back in their affordability range.  For others, it’s the sense that now may be the time to buy as prices have come down so much, and they’re feeling confident again going forward.

 

Housing Bubble Boom or Bust?

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Real Estate Bubble Ready to Burst? NBC interviews top agent Brett Ellis about the housing bubble boom or bust and where SW Florida market is headed. Complete with video (No longer active).  NBC Nightly News feature on foreclosures in SW Florida  Brett Ellis is known for his statistical analysis of the SWFL real estate market, and his Current Market Index, which accurately predicts where the market is headed. Brett works with his mother Sande Ellis, and together they lea d the market in Southwest Florida. View their website.

Our analysis shows the SW Florida real estate market may be headed for a real estate bubble, and soon. At some point, the what a bigger fool will pay philosophy will have to end.  We don’t have end users for all of this new construction.

See our Innovative Sales Tactics as reported by NBC-2.

Economist: Gradual moderation of real estate market likely (Link no longer active from Naples Daily News) Noted economist Hank Fishkind addresses mortgage rates, retirees, demographics, oil prices, and markets up north to come to his conclusion.