When you hear the market is falling off a cliff it brings back memories of the past 5 ½ years of a real estate market in free-fall. Anyone reading headlines for the past several years would believe any such headline is another bad story and perhaps would bury their head in despair.

Well SW Florida, a part of the market has fallen off a cliff, and it’s actually good news. Inventory has been eaten up by buyers faster than it has come on the market, and buyers are actually competing with other buyers to buy the best properties. It’s not uncommon for a property to have multiple offers.

For historical reference, I just checked overall Lee County single family inventory numbers for October 2006 which stood at 12,669. They peaked at 16,694 in February of 2008 and basically held firm until December of 2008 when they began to fall. Currently single family home inventory stands at 9,785.

We’ve included inventory charts for Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Lehigh Acres because overall inventory numbers can be deceiving. You’ll notice there are some minor differences, but for the most part the lines look similar and all three show a steep decline from January 2011 to present.

Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh acres Residential Inventory
Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres Listing Inventory

While national news outlets report the rest of the country could be in for a fall, nationwide analysts fail to recognize SW Florida has fallen for over 5 years and is actually on its way up. All real estate is Local, and our market is artificially priced too low, as much as 40% below replacement cost in some instances. As distressed inventory is shrinking, we’ve seen median sales price increases because the market cannot sustain these artificial low prices forever.

We do expect more foreclosures to hit the market as the legal system has been working through some challenges pertaining to the validity and legal documentation provided by the banks. We don’t believe however there will be enough foreclosures to satisfy buyers’ appetite and we could continue to see rising prices. We don’t believe the next wave of foreclosures will be as large as the first waves, and our market absorbed all those foreclosures just fine.

We’ve seen rising prices, increasing pending sales, and decreasing listing inventory for several months now. The fundamentals point to a recovering market in SW Florida. Wildcards can always influence any market, such as gas prices, terrorism, the United States mounting debt and its effect on interest rates, inflation, Middle East flare-ups, and so on. Last year we had an oil spill that had the potential to influence our market, and in some respects probably did.

Nobody knows for certain what wildcards might present themselves. For instance, not many people predicted a 9.0 earthquake that would lead to a tsunami which would lead to a nuclear crisis in 2011, but it happened. Each event led to and compounded the following event.

Absent any major wildcard events, it would appear that the SW Florida real estate market is on solid ground and mounting a comeback. We’d like to see sustained job growth before we’re ready to see sales prices take off, and this is why we know prices will increase, we just can’t say how fast and how high until more of the picture comes into play.

 

We’ve been reporting for weeks now that distressed property sales are moving.  One component of a distressed sale is the Short Sale.  A short sale is when a bank agrees to take less than what is owed on the mortgage so the property owner can afford to sell the home at today’s lower market values.  Banks in the past have taken much time to decide and some have been stingy on accepting these deals, for good reason. We’ll come back to the reasons later on. 

Many agents have been reluctant to show short sales to their buyers because banks have been declining a lot of these sales.  We have a bit of good news to report, and that is short sales are rising.  We’re not saying they happen overnight, or that they’re easy.  We’re just reporting the fact that they’re happening more frequently now as banks develop systems to more adequately deal with these sales, and they realize they may lose less in a short sale than a foreclosure sale. 

 

SW Florida Closed Short Sales 2009
SW Florida Closed Short Sales 2009

As you can see from the monthly chart, Cape Coral leads the county in short sales.  All three areas, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Lehigh Acres are experiencing an increase in short sales from the banks.  Cape Coral had 113 short sales in May compared to 151 in October.  Fort Myers had 29 in May compared to 73 in October.  Lehigh Acres had 30 in May compared to 49 in October, so you can see a definite increase in banks cooperating in short sales in just a few short months, no pun intended. 

Why is it that banks are cooperating more?  We’re not exactly sure, however we can speculate that banks have learned they lose less in a short sale than a foreclosure.  Real estate agents have also learned what banks are looking for through education and are presenting better packages to the banks, which are key.  Perhaps that Tarp money has freed banks up a bit to sell distressed properties.  Most likely is that banks have been hiring and training people to deal with the barrage of requests and heavy paperwork load and they’re getting better at dealing with this issue. 

Let’s look at some of the reasons banks take so long so we can understand the delays.  Banks obviously don’t want to lose money.  Banks generally qualify the seller and make sure there is hardship.  Being upside down on a mortgage is Not considered hardship.  There must be documentation proving the seller’s hardship, and this is why our sellers fill out a complete financial survey that is included in our short sale package to the bank. 

The bank also wants to verify that the seller is selling at today’s fair market value, not some super spectacular deal for an investor or relative so they can make money on the bank’s losses.  Keep in mind, the bank is taking less, so it is the bank’s loss. 

The bank wants to make sure it’s an arm’s length transaction.  They don’t want a family member buying it at a discount or an LLC being used as a vehicle to transfer property to a family member at a reduced price so the mortgagee can escape being upside down.

There may be more than one ban involved, and each one has limits on how much loss they will take on the short sale.  They will weigh the current loss vs. and anticipated loss they may receive at foreclosure.  They may wish to order appraisals before making a decision.  We submit a BPO (Broker’s Price Opinion) to substantiate today’s market value with all accepted contracts. 

We don’t let our sellers sign more than one offer and submit to the bank due to legal ramifications.  And we don’t have our sellers accept an unreasonable offer that the bank will reject, so we do all the homework upfront.  Why waste everybody’s time?  Because all listings agents don’t do this, buyer agents are skeptical to show short sales and waste their client’s time and money. 

Even if the listing agent does everything perfectly, there is no guarantee what the banks will do, and yet there are far too many listings being taken at incorrect prices and inappropriate situations, and that is bogging down the system.  This is not the time to just throw something out there and Try because seller is desperate.  Decisions made are impacting the buyer and seller’s lives, and a lot of time and energy is expended by all involved.  It pays to do things the way the banks require them for maximum results. 

If you understand what the bank is looking for, and work with someone who has experience actually selling short sales, buyer agents will be more likely to show these types of properties.  Agents are getting better, banks are getting better, and hopefully we’ll see more short sales go through so neighborhoods don’t have to suffer through abandoned properties and all the negatives associated with foreclosures.

This weeks guest on the Future of Real Estate will be local attorney Kevin Jursinski who will explain his Deed in Reduction program and how it benefits borrowers and lenders alike  to minimize costs associated with short sales and foreclosures.  We’ll ask Kevin tough questions on various situations ranging from credit repair scams, to working with lenders to take a lower amount than what is owed in order to sell at today’s lower market values.

If you’re considering buying a short sale or foreclosure, or if you’re considering selling property in SW Florida, you’ll definitely want to tune in to this week’s show on AM 1240 Saturdays at 11:00 AM, and re-broadcast over the Internet at NBC-2.com and www.Topagent.com