Tag Archives: Florida foreclosures

SW Florida April Real Estate Breakdown

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The past few weeks we’ve laid out in detail how prices have increased and some reasons that would explain why. This week we thought we’d illustrate how the distressed market is faring versus the traditional or normal resale’s and look at how that impacts prices.

Breakdown of Distressed Sales Versus Normal Sales SW Florida
SW FLorida Distressed Sales Breakdown

As you can see from the chart, distressed sales are down about 4% in 2011 versus 2010. We all know distressed sales have weighed down the SW Florida real estate market for several years. Prices didn’t just fall in half, they fell in some cases to about 25% of what they were back in 2005 or early 2006.

We’ve often said sale prices have fallen artificially too low and the only thing holding them that low was a flood of continuing foreclosures entering the market to keep the prices down. For the most part, investors and 1st time buyers bought every foreclosure they could and prices stayed low because there were new foreclosures coming on to satisfy buyers appetite.

The foreclosure machine hit a snag in late 2010 due to legal concerns in Florida and 10 other states; however we expect that foreclosures will return in the 2nd qtr of 2011. The question is how many more are left, and how long will it take the banks to work through them. I guess the other question is how long will the economy be stagnant further forcing teetering homeowners over the brink?

Assuming we’re in the 7th inning of the foreclosure crisis and that any wave of future foreclosures won’t be as robust as past waves, prices should continue to rise. Official numbers for March won’t be released for about 3 weeks, but preliminarily we’re seeing median prices rising about 3.45% over last year and mean average prices rising about 16%. Stats were pulled as of March 29, and it does take several days for all sales to be entered into MLS, so these are very raw and preliminary numbers, but they do coincide with what we’ve been seeing and predicting the last several months.

As prices rise, more and more sellers will qualify to sell without being a short sale or foreclosure, which will also change the charts. Nobody should expect an overnight turn around as our market is still healing, and even though we’re in the latter stages of the correction, healing can be painful. Sellers expecting a return to 2005 prices might be waiting years or a decade or more.

We’ll also be anticipating Congress submitting and passing a budget. Many do not realize that last year’s Congress didn’t do that, so we haven’t had a budget in 2 years. They’ve kicked the can down the road and left it for others to do. Because Congress didn’t do their job last year, it’s making it tougher this year, and everyone knows we need steep budget cuts. Inflation will rise as we cannot continue deficit spending. This throws the capital markets off and interest rates could rise, which could also affect real estate prices as increased rates dig into buying power for buyers. When rates go higher, buyers have to offer less for homes in many cases to afford the property. Increased interest rates are like a hidden tax on real estate, so we’d hope for our country to get it’s spending in order for a lot of reasons.

Stay tuned and we’ll watch together how these forces play out and affect our market. Nothing is as simple as one variable dictating prices. We have several variables at work, and time will tell.

Watch our April 2011 SW Florida Real Estate Market Update

Road Paved for Short Sales to Sail Through

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This past week we sat in on a meeting with the founder of RE/MAX, Laurie Magiano with the US Department of Treasury, Matt Vernon who heads the Bank of America Foreclosure and short sale department, and the president of Equator, the online transaction management platform for 7 of the 10 largest banks for foreclosures and short sales. The topic was HAFA, the government’s new initiative which stands for Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program. 

Fort Myers Cape Coral Florida REO foreclosures short sales graph
SW Florida Foreclosure Versus Short Sale Graph

The government’s new plan is voluntary for lenders, and it does not include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned or guaranteed mortgages as they are working on their own solutions to assisting and speeding up the process.  The government’s new plan allows for homeowners to receive $3,000 for moving expenses if the seller agrees to a short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure.  A short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure is better on the sellers credit than a full blown foreclosure and will allow the seller to purchase a home much sooner than a foreclosure. 

The plan also stipulates that the seller will not receive a deficiency judgment, so the seller won’t be bogged down with debt payments in the future resulting from the sale of the property.  This is big as it’s been a stumbling block for many sellers in accepting a short sale.  The seller’s housing expense ratio should exceed 31% or lender will believe seller can afford payment, and lenders will be particularly mindful of strategic defaults where seller has money saved but chooses to walk away anyway, especially on the higher loans. 

The new regulations, if the lenders agree, stipulates that the 2nd mortgage holder will receive 6 cents on the dollar, which is far more than a foreclosure where they won’t receive anything, and much more than the 2-3 cents banks sell debt for on open market.  The 2nd lien holders have held up many short sales, and now that the government has set guidelines, it should make it easier having a roadmap to negotiations. 

The new guidelines also call for lenders to make decisions within 10 business days as to the viability of doing a short sale, and banks such as Bank of America are committing resources so that agents will now receive communications within 2 days, so the days of asking questions and not hearing anything for weeks or months may be over.  Bank of America has put systems in place whereby an agent can contact a negotiator’s supervisor if the agent has not heard a response within 2 days, and the Treasury department has given us an e-mail address to escalate all inquiries no matter who the lender is so they can step in and help. 

Everyone in the room agreed that short sale transactions could one day outnumber foreclosures, and that would be a good thing as sellers credit is better preserved, and lenders generally lose less money on a short sale versus a bank foreclosure, and 2nd lien holders get paid something.  The property tends to remain maintained and require less fix up than an abandoned or vandalized property, which further upholds values in the neighborhood. 

There is one other advantage few people think about to a quick process.  Many short sales are priced too low and will never sell, but they subliminally drive values down in the market as some view the unsalable short sales as the new market value when in fact they’re artificial and won’t be approved.  By speeding up the process, or issuing pre-approved pricing, this should help alleviate this phenomenon and improve the market almost immediately. 

Stay tuned as these are lofty ideals, and we’ll report back on how well they actually work.  Of course, this will depend on how many of the lenders and investors participate in the voluntary program.  See our Future of Real Estate Show discussing new HAFA program on short sales.

SW Florida Real Estate Market Market Up, Down, or Sideways?

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This is the age old question everyone asks.  How is the market doing?  Have we bottomed?  When will prices go back up?  When will my home be worth what I owe?  How long until we get back to 2005 prices?  Should I sell or rent? 

Actually we get more questions than this, like should I pay my mortgage, should I pay my homeowners association fees, etc.  We’ll stick with the value questions for this article. 

We’ve included a graph illustrating median prices since 2008.  Median prices don’t tell the whole story, but they do tell a story.  The definition of median price is half the sales are over and half under a certain price.  As you can see, prices have fallen sharply since January 2008, and even more dating back to 2005.  Ironically, home sales are up and setting records precisely because home prices have fallen.  We’ve explained this in depth in past articles. 

Lee County florida Single Family Median Home Sale Prices
SW Florida Real Estate Prices Graph

Average sales prices were approximately $365,000 back in January 2008 vs the median price of $225,000.  We have been watching how the average and median price are related, and we have a chart in our annual State of the Market Report on Pg 4 that shows the relation over time between the two.  This report can be found at www.Topagent.com 

The average price gives us a little more depth to the market and helps us understand the overall breath of the market.  As we’ve been saying for quite some time, we expect higher priced foreclosures and short sales to actually pull the median price up, and we believe this will occur.  This past week official numbers were released, both statewide and nationwide.  Prices actually fell 3.3% vs. last month, and were down 9.74% from last year. 

Some might ask if we do all this research, when will our predictions come true.  Our best estimates have been we could see year over year price increases as soon as March or April data.  March data won’t be released until next month, but keep in mind these are only predictions about the future and nobody knows for certain.  We are fairly confident this will occur; the question is more of when. 

We have been looking at both median and mean average sales price data and it appears that prices for both dropped since December 2009 as official data would indicate, however were are seeing some price increases in March data that would indicate this trend has reversed, at least temporarily.  Keep in mind we have many more closings that occur at the end of a month that could skew the data, but the trend looks good. 

We would also expect sales this time of year to be higher as our Northern visitors are here and buying property as well, and many of these sales are in the higher than median price range.  Many of these sales will occur past March into April and May, and many will come back and buy in the summer. 

Ultimately prices will be determined by jobs and the economy.  As more people get back to work, it should slow the foreclosures, and bring more people to the area.  When will this occur?  I think it’s so much easier to forecast prices in the short term than predict the overall economy.  Congress has been focused on health care and the climate more than the economy, so it’s really hard to predict what’s coming out of Washington and how it will affect us and the economy, especially since we’ve largely been kept in the dark until something passes. 

We would encourage our government to turn its attention to actually helping the economy, or get out of the way so small business can begin creating jobs and getting us back on our feet.  Once the economy starts looking up, Main Street can begin to recover and prices can begin to rise.  Our prices are artificially low, and they won’t stay that way forever.  Prices are well below replacement cost, so builders are on the sidelines now as they don’t wish to build at a loss.  Our market will increase in value perhaps 40-50% before this occurs, and this is why buyers today have a chance at building substantial equity quickly. 

Once the dust settles and our market reaches price equilibrium, builders will be building again, bringing more jobs to the area and sustainable price appreciation.  Good times await those who buy now and ride the coaster on up to equilibrium.

Be sure to check our latest video on the Flood Insurance Crisis affecting home sales.

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