May 2009 Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index
The Ellis Team May 2009 SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index shows relative stability. We switched the way we compile the data for this report, and it looks like the index held steady at 3.99, up slightly from 3.72 the month prior. All signs point to big sales ini April once they are released. We are tracking over 1,400 single family home sales in April, which far exceeds sales from last year.
In the coming days we will be releasing a Fort Myers-Cape Coral inventory chart which will show available inventory in just those areas, as well as pending sales activity. Lee County overall single family inventory stands at 12,579 which is up slightly from last months number of 12,356. Again, we switched data compilation sources and we now feel we’ll pick up a few extra listings by making the change, so it’s possible inventory didn’t really increase at all.
First time home buyers hoping to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit are competing with investors trying to scoop up bank foreclosure bargains. Pending sales currently are running high, and might even be higher if we weren’t running out of foreclosure inventory. The lack of foreclosure inventory may lead to reduced sales going forward if foreclosures do not pick back up again soon. Some think the banks will be taking possession of more foreclosures soon as they work through the process, but less are being filed each month.
SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index April 2009
The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group released the April 2009 SW Florida Real Estate Current market Index which accurately predicts the local real estate market’s future direction, and once again the index improved. Fort Myers and Cape Coral recorded their lowest numbers since October 2005.In October 2005 the number stood at 3.44, and the index today stands at 3.72The lowest on record was July 2005 when the index stood at 1.07.The lower the number the better the market is for sellers and the higher the number the better the market is for buyers.The lower numbers are a result of higher transaction volume combined with declining inventory levels.
Lee County Florida index numbers for single family homes stands at 4.26, down from 5.07 in March.We’re seeing tremendous sales numbers for a variety of reasons. Not only do we have home affordability back in the market, but also the perception that we’ve seen drastic price cuts and the end in price declines may be near.Buyers do not want to miss out on the possible buying opportunity of a lifetime.Along with attractive pricing is record low interest rates, declining property taxes, and a decent but dwindling supply of homes to choose from.Lastly, the government passed a 1st time home buyer tax credit that gives buyers up to $8,000 tax credit to buy a home and if the home is kept for three years does not have to be repaid to the government.
Rarely do all the stars align for a perfect buying opportunity, but that’s just exactly what we have right now.The SW Florida real estate market has been heating up for some time, and in 2009 we’re seeing some dramatic results on the transaction volume side.Pricing is a lagging indicator and will follow once inventory is depleted further.We’ve already seen a 2.74% rise in prices in March over February 2009 numbers.Total single family home inventory in Lee County fell to 12,356 in April, down from 13,019 in March.
Cape Coral is again leading the way as the CMI index numbers for the Cape stands at 2.88.Fort Myers CMI numbers stand at 7.26 Inventory is dropping in both Fort Myers and Cape Coral, and pending sales are increasing.We believe when official sales numbers are released later this month we’ll see record sales for March, and sales activity going forward for April and May looks to be very strong.Current home prices are so far below replacement cost that builders are not even attempting to build yet.Once this inventory is depleted prices may begin to rise on a gradual path towards replacement cost, and when that occurs builders will again start building.We believe we are still some time off from that point; however we are amazed at how quickly homes are selling and how the SW Florida real estate market has heated up.Once the overall economy improves and businesses start hiring again in force, we believe prices could rise at a quicker pace and approach replacement prices.Until then, home sales will be great as long as the price is attractive, and we may enter No-Man’s land once we deplete existing inventory and the market absorbs what to do once the bargains are all gone.The economy and employment will eventually drive home sale prices, and home sales may help drive the economy back to health.
Stay tuned as the market is definitely heating up, and the Current market Index points to more good times ahead.
Fort Myers and Cape Coral Real Estate Current Market Index
The January 2009 Ellis Team SW Florida real estate current market index covering Fort Myers real estate, Cape Coral real estate, and Estero leveled off this past month and currently stands at 6.74, up slightly from 6.65 the previous month. The index still shows signs of strong buying activity and overall market absorbtion.
Single family inventory for Lee County dropped below 14,000 this month to 13,740, while pendings remained relatively the same. The Current Market Index for the entore county actually fell from 7.99 to 7.89, but we are reporting numbers in the graph for just Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate single family homes. Single family home inventory has been falling nicely as the market has been absorbing homes to the market all throughout 2008. Other agents are just now starting to pick up on this trend and report it, instead of the gloom and doom some have been reporting all year.
Next month we’ll be releasing our annual SW Florida State of the Market Report, which will be much more comprehensive this year. We’ve been hard at work analysing the data and identifying emerging trends. As usual, there will be some surprises. We’ve spent extra time eliminating duplicate entries in various MLS systems, so we feel quite confident this new set of numbers will be the Most realistic picture of what is actually happening in SW Florida real estate.
We’ll be drilling down much deeper so you can see what’s been happening in various neighborhoods. Stay tuned for official announcement for the release date for this very special report.
SW Florida Ellis Team Real Estate Current Market Index
The November 2008 Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index showed continued improvement again in November. We expect sales numbers to be quite positive when they are released in a few days, even if sale prices are down as has been the trend in 2008. The index fell to 6.89 for the Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate market which is the lowest we’ve seen in years since December of 2005.
Cape Coral’s inventory declined slightly while pending sales increased again, and the CMI Index number for Cape Coral is down to 5.40 Fort Myers rose slightly to 14.56. Lee County numbers overall fee to 8.64 from 9.16 in October. Most of these numbers bode well for future sales activity as this index accurately predicts future closed sales and overall market health.
Condo sales in SW Florida are another story with the CMI Index currently at 22.64, up from 21.86 in October. With season approaching we’ll see if those numbers improve in the 1st Qtr of 2009.
We were uploading video to our YouTube account the other day and we came across this news story we did back on March 3, 2008 where we said the real estate market is changing.
We also mentioned on air that we were seeing a 60% increase in pending sales back in April in a news story entitled SW Florida Real Estate Housing Numbers.
On June 18, 2008 we wrote an article entitled Preliminary SW Florida Real Estate May Sales Numbers All signs point to housing numbers that should show an increase in sales of about 57-61% in transactions. We expect to see a decline in median price from May of last year around 25% give or take a few percentage points. Many thought April’s numbers were a one-time event, but we don’t think so. In fact, our Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index suggests transaction strength for awhile to come.
We’ll all be watching the numbers as they are released tomorrow, and we’ll be surprised if the volume isn’t very strong as affordability is back in the market.
The Ellis Team SW Florida real estate Current Market Index improved for the 5th straight month. The index moved down to 7.23 for the Fort Myers, Cape Coral area. For the entire Lee County Florida area the Current Market Index fell to 9.21, down from 9.57 the previous month.
Single family listings in Lee County rose to 15,634, up from 15,340 the month prior, but Pending sales increased to 1,697, up from 1,603 in May. We’ve already predicted May sales numbers should be about 57-60% higher over last year, while average prices should be down about 25% from last year. We used the mean average and the official numbers use the median average, so there could be some slight variations when numbers are released.
We look at closed sale data in addition to using the Current Market Index to get a direction of where the market is headed. This index has been so successful in its accuracy that the National Association of Realtors have adopted a similiar but more simple formula to predict the future market called the Pending Home Sales Index.
Next week we’ll report official numbers for May, but suffice it to say that not only will May numbers look stellar but June numbers should also look stellar once the month is completed.
